Holiday Bowl

Hard game for Oregon, Oklahoma is a better team than their record implies and while young is loaded with athletes . . . as much as the Ducks have said all the right things about going to San Diego (it means whale's vagina in German by the way) rather than Tempe disappointment has to be in the back of their heads. However the same could be said for Oklahoma who believes that they should be playing in the Cotton Bowl over Texas Tech. Personally I'd take San Diego over Dallas any day of the week but Dallas for OU means driving distance for fans in a stadium they play yearly in. Well on to the game. I think that Allioti will sell out to the run and dare Bomar to beat the Ducks deep. If Petersen can be held to 150 or less on the ground I like the Duck's chances. Bomar has a very young line and receivers and has been shaky, a now healthy Petersen will be a beast to try and stop though, I hope Haloti can continue to dominate the line of scrimmage. Fnal prediction Oregon 27 Oklahoma 24

Well on to the disaster that is Oregon Men's Basketball . . . well yes Jordan Kent is in San Diego with the fooball team and Malik didn't play due to injury but Pac 10 programs filled with Top 100 recruits cannot lose on their home court to the likes of Portland State and "running" teams cannot score in the low 50's and hope to win many games. Kent has lost this team . . . I think this year is done and Oregon needs to cut its loses and make a change after the season . . . not really sure they can do anything right now as none of the assistants appear qualified to be a head coach either. Oregon is truly missing the presence of Fred Litzenburger on the bench.

Pac 10 Power Poll 12/27/05

Kind of a quiet basketball week as we are right in the middle of Bowl Week and ofcourse Christmas time. Congrats to the Cal Bears for beating BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Well on to basketball and the biggest story in my opinion is the implosion of the Oregon Ducks since the miracle shot loss to Vanderbilt. Since then the Ducks have managed to only beat Santa Clara and Howard. From the viewing of just about anyone who has seen this team play last year compared to this year outside of Brandon Lincoln and Adam Zahn this team has not improved and in many cases may have regressed. I point to this as a coaching issue, Kent has recruited well but he has been exposed with the losses of Greg Graham after the 2001/2002 season to Boise State and the loss of Fred Litzenberger as assistant coaches (defensive guru who ran practice for Jody Runge and Ernie Kent over the years and spent about 20 hours a day waching tape). The pressure on Kent is immense right now and I think as a game coach he is at the bottom of the Pac 10. With the talent of the recruits he has signed the Ducks should be at worst 4th or 5th in the Pac 10 this year but I would doubt to see them favored in any more than 4 games this entire season and would be suprised to see a finish higher than 8th in league play. I don't think he will be fired after this year but after Jordan Kent's eligibility is complete after next season Ernie will be gone from Eugene and I hope Bill Moos follows him.

Power Poll

1. UW - Outside of an injury plauged Gonzaga haven't been tested yet . . . Brockman shoul;d be freshman of the year in the Pac 10, just think what they would be like with Martell Webster as well.
2. UCLA - RPI loves these guys as they have played a much tougher schedule than UW, I would not be surprised to see UCLA end the season as league champs.
3. Arizona - I still think they need another shooter to step up for them
4. USC - Weak schedule but the win over UNC was impressive not that the student body noticed or anything.
5. Cal- Nice to see Leon Powe back at it after missing last year with a knee injury
6. Stanford - based on personell alone . . . they should be able to win a decent amount of games in the Pac 10
7. WSU - No one likes to play WSU, they'll win a few games they shouldn't and I don't think a NIT appearance is out of the question
8. Oregon State - Haven't played since 12/14/05 and that was a win against a team in Northern Colorado who sports an RPI of plus 300
9. Arizona State - Expect to see Rob Evans fired at year end
10a. University of Portland - 3-0 versus in state competetion first time since the 50's they have swept PSU, UO and OSU.
10b. UO - Is there a fireenriekent.com website up yet? There is no excuse for how poorly this team has played . . . can it get any lower than the UP loss?

Fantasy football . . . the bane of my existence

So I play fantasy football just like the rest of America does now . . . however I do have to say the first year I played was way back in 1986 if you would believe it! They actually had a class at good ole Roosevlet Middle School in Eugene that really all you did was have a fantasy draft, follow your team and then learn how to keep score of a baseball game . . . the "final" was how well you scored the game. Well back to my original topic, this guy in our league let's call him Patrick has won the whole dang thing three years in a row. He is that guy in everyone's league who makes the random picks that make everyone laugh then they turn out to work (Chris Cooley, Joe Jerivicus) . . . he always goes on either early or late losing streaks and then somehow sneaks in to the playoffs and then erupts for a 120+ week . . . well the last two years I have dominated the regular season only to lose in the playoffs to him when his team explodes for huge points on the one week in the last 10 that my team loses. Now I am out all my money and he will probably win the league again . . . I really need to get in a league that rewards the regular season champ for something . . .

Pac 10 Power Poll 12/19/05

Well another week down and the Pac 10 regular season schedule is about to start. What has this league done so far this year? Well not much to tell you the truth. Washington has looked excellent, however outside of Gonzaga they have played a soft schedule mainly at home so it is hard to get a read on them. UCLA and Arizona both had respectable road wins this week versus strong opponents and Oregon State beat a SEC team up in Portland. And well in Eugene things just aren't looking any better . . .

1. UW - Really haven't been tested this year outside of the Gonzaga game and the Zags were not at full strength . . .
2. UCLA - looking as if they are a very solid squad who will challenge for the Pac 10 title
3. Arizona - very nice performance versus Utah . . . 30 point win at the Huntsman Center is nice, looks as if the Cats are starting to solve their shooting woes.
4. Cal- They haven't played since the 10th of December, not sure what to make of them but we shall see how they match up versus Depaul on Wednesday.
5. USC- Have won 7 stright versus horrible competition . . . they face UNC on Wednesday, good luck with that one Men of Troy.
6. Stanford - This team really could use an athlete in the Childress mode, they lack that and in the end in Vegas Va Tech had better athletes than Stanford and won the game at the end.
7. WSU - Well they beat UP this week and UP beat up on Oregon State so . . .
8. OSU - Nice win against the Bulldogs from Athens . . . I didn't see that one happening
9. UO - Struggled and won versus Santa Clara at home, lost on the road to New Mexico after blowing a late lead . . . Losing the New Mexico is acceptable . . . but again I see regression in many of these guys and the coaching stay is just not clicking with the players . . .
10. ASU - Start working on that resume Mr. Evans

A few thoughts about RPI

I would say I am a freak in the notion that I find tings like the BCS and RPI very interesting. RPI is a useful tool I think but usually not until the end of December or so, we are getting close to that point but reviewing the RPI figures currently out as of 12/14/05 you'll see many teams that are on the list that will drop significantly once non-conference play starts. As good as teams such as Bucknell and Gonzaga and even Memphis may be once they start playing league games they will drop down the ladder significantly. It will be interesting to see where a squad like Bucknell gets ranked come March after beating Kansas last year and Syracuse this year. I don't think anyone from that league has ever gotten higher than a 14 seed but that could change. What I find more interesting is to take a look at Conference RPI. You have to think that there will be some real changes in how many bids each conference gets in March. Conference USA has traditionally been a 4 bid league but with the loss of all it's marquee teams except for Memphis it has the look now of a 2 bid league. Houston has had some nice wins and has an RPI of 14 and ofcourse Memphis is 2 and it's only loss is to Duke. The Pac 10 and Big 12 could be losing bids this year and we may see leagues such as the Missouri Valley and Colonial getting 2-3 bids this spring. As bad as the Pac 10 has been perceived the Big 12 has an even lower RPI, this is particularly bad considering they have 12 teams (though Baylor has yet to play a game, why they are still being punished so punatively by the NCAA for the scummy behaviour of Dave Bliss boggles my mind).

Pac 10 Hoops, it's getting ugly . . . well I went to the Oregon - Illinois game at the Rose Garden . . . well what can I say good about this game, it was nice to see my friends from Eugene and it was nice to see a guy who should be a contender for Big 10 POY in Dee Brown who was en fuego against Oregon. Well on to reality, Ernie Kent has lost this Oregon team. It is basically the same squad as last year switching Crosswhite for Johnson. A loss not mentioned but probably more key than the loss of Crosswhite was losing Litz from the coaching ranks. I certainly don't see the massive improvement in the sophmore class that we saw from the 01/02 team and that has to go on the coaching staff and Ernie as well as the players . . . Oregon doesn't play defense for one. Second outside of Maarty and Ivan who on this team even attempts to rebound? Oregon's offense seems to be passing the ball around the perimeter until the shot clock gets down to 5 seconds and then taking a three. When you play like that and shoot in the 20's you are gonna get run . . . my prediction is that Kent survives the next two years and then resigns/gets fired once Jordan Kent's eligibility is complete after next season . . . here's my "Power" Poll . . .

UW - lots of senior leadership, Brockman, could run away with this league
UCLA - solid NCAA team with a likely seed of 4-6 and a definite shot at being a Sweet 16 IMO, need a healthy Affolo
Cal - Didn't look so hot this weekend for the few moments I caught them on TV, borderline NCAA team that has played a weak schedule so far
Arizona - Arizona is really missing the shooting of Salim . . . has the look of an 8/9 seed, which could be a very dangerous out for a 1 . . .
WSU - Clearly not in the same league as Gonzaga . . . NIT would be huge for them
USC - Jury is still out on Floyd but USC has some decent young talent
UO - something smells rotten in Eugene
OSU - got handled by UP, UP is not good . . .
ASU - Played the Gophs tough at home then lose to Utah Valley State . . . who is Utah Valley State?
Stanford - How are these guys playing so poorly?

Oregon hoops what can I say . . . I thought they had a gutty effort against Vandy and they lost on a heart breaking shot, I can accept that . . . then they laid an egg to an agressive and big Georgetwon team ending a 37 game home winning streak against non Pac 10 foes, they seemed to show no life in that game and obviuosly were hungover from the Vandy loss but we have seen that often with Kent teams, losing streaks after heart breaking L's . . . facing Illinois on Saturday is pretty much a make or break game for the Ducks as for the NCAA's, I don't really see a lot of differnce from last year but maybe I can be convinced otherwise . . . How bad is the Pac 10 in basketball . . . I am talking about you Stanford . . . lose by 19 to Montana and then lose to UC Davis . . . do your self a favor and check out Bob Clark's article in the guard today . . . by the way UC Davis lost to Cal State Stanislaus . . . no suprise to me that Oregon lost out on the BCS . . . when LSU and then Va Tech lost I know that OSU and NDU were locked in to the 4th and 6th places leaving the Fiesta Bowl no choice in taking the 5th place BCS team . . . I think OSU, UO and Notre Dame all have good arguments someone was gonna bet hosed and luckily for John Junker the rules took his desicion out of the mix . . . the Pac 10 has definitely been more hurt by the BCS than any other conference in terms of payouts though I think the worst exclusion ever was probably K State in 1998 . . . Note to the Ducks, you better beat a very much improved Oklahoma team in San Diego or all the wining from fans is meaningless, the coaches and players though have handled the whole thing with pride and class and I give them kudos for that . . . the two biggest BCS shafts (ie not getting a bid, not the no championship game garbabe that screwed Oregon and USC) in the past were probably K State and Cal and both lost pretty badly in there lower tier bowl games . . . I see the Ducks showing up but Oklahoma should be not underestimated . . . expect to see Alliotti sell out to the run and hope Petersen can be stopped . . . I see a whole lotta Ngata in his future . . . well looking forward to going the Pape Jam on Saturday, hope the Ducks decide to show up to . . . speaking of hoops does the Pac 10 even get 4 bids this year? Right now I'd say no based on RPI numbers but they will probably change as the year goes on . . .

Cheers and Jeers

Cheers . . . Adam Morrison as a player of the year candidate
Jeers . . . Adam Morrison's porn-stasche
Cheers . . . Oregon going 10-1
Jeers . . . lacking a marquee win to lock up a Fiesta bid
Cheers . . . The Maui invitational
Jeers . . . The lack of other good holiday tournaments

Well for anyone who got a chance to catch any of the MSU/ Gonzaga game last night it was a classic. Both of those teams played at very high levels. I can always count on Izzo to go a long ways in March but we shall see if Few can ever put it together. I just don't think the Zags improve as much as High-Major conference teams in Janauary and February becuase of the conference they play in.

Oregon is 3-0 but I don't think they have been any where close to tested. Pacific is a good name after doing well in the tourney last year but they lost 7 major contributors from last year's team.

Hope everyone can enjoy Thanksgiving!

Pac 10 Basketball predictions

Oh first I want to preface this by saying I am way behind on my research. Since moving up to Portland I have way less free time than I did in Eugene for a variety of reasons that are mainly good. I am pretty much throwing these picks up based on who is returning from last year and I have yet to see any games from Pac 10 squads this year. However come February I promise that I will be a Pac 10 hoops expert again. Here are my picks:

1. Arizona - some good senior leadership along with quality youngsters
2. UCLA - Bringing East Coast toughness to the Pac 10
3. Washington - Brockman looks to be a candidate for Pac 10 Frosh of the year
4. Stanford - Cagey, experienced need to avoid injury bug of last year
5. Cal - So much depends on Powe's health
6. Oregon - Lots of upside, I wonder about the chemistry though, Kent can't afford another year not playing in the NCAA's with the recruits he has pulled in
7. Oregon State - Scrappy team, we shall see how they replace Lucas
8. WSU - No one likes to play WSU . . .
9. USC - hope is renewed with Floyd at the helm . . . I miss Doctor Evil though
10. Arizona State - this will be Evans swansong, if they couldn't win with Diogu how are they gonna win with out him

Pac 10 Power Rankings 11/14/05

Huge changes from last week's ratings, I see the scenario of where only 4 Pac 10 teams end up in bowls, if ASU loses to Zona it seems likely unless Stanford can beat either Cal or Notre Dame or shudder Oregon State can beat Oregon . . . the Trees have to be kicking themselves still for that UC Davis debacle

1. USC - Rolled up Cal, covered the spread, 3 wins away from history . . .
2. Oregon - survived a scare in Pullman, what's new . . .
3. UCLA - Came back after the U of A loss, maybe they have more character than previous Bruins teams which I think bodes well for Dorrel's future
4. Cal - Ayoob just doesn't make good desicions
5. Stanford - This team is bi-polar I think, nice win in Corvallis
6. ASU - Played UCLA pretty tough, just not enough, I'll predict that if Koetter loses to Arizona in two weeks, his services will no longer be needed in Tempe
7. UW - Wow a Husky win, shocking to say the least, will they ever lose 14 in a row in the Pac 10? Or will anyone for that matter?
8. Arizona - A wee bit overconfident Stoops and company?
9. Oregon State - Moore is done and most likely so are the Beavs bowl chances
10. WSU - Have to be the best 0-7 team in Pac 10 history . . . again they played just well enough to lose another close game

PAC 10 Power Rankings

USC - Best offense ever?
UO - They won without Clemens, very close game could have gone either way but Ngata and the Oregon defense stepped up big late and Bellotti went with a hunch and let Leaf play and it paid off.
Cal - Yeah they have lost 3 of 4 but they did take Oregon to OT in Autzen
Arizona - They killed UCLA so I have to rank them ahead of UCLA, they really have to regret blowing the Stanford and Oregon games, I'd predict Arizona will be a bowl team next year
UCLA - It is November and UCLA is fading, why do we expect that to ever change . . .
ASU - Well they won a road game albiet is was at winless WSU
OSU - Wins in Seattle are rare for the Beavs but they had to get a W and greatly improved their bowl chances
Stanford - I think injuries are catching up to them . . .
WSU - playing just well enough to lose every week, that is the definition of Coogin it!
UW - can they go 0-8 back to back years in the Pac 10? Has there ever been a bigger fade job for what has traditionally been a Top 15 program?

Oregon vs Cal . . .

Interesting match-up indeed, should be what you expect from a Tedford Bellotti matchup . . . a close game. Keys for Oregon will be to establish a running game. The likely poor weather will probably be more of an advantage to Cal who has the more consistent running game. If I am Bob Gregory I woul dare Oregon to beat me with the deep pass. I think Dixon has shown that he is capable at throwing a short ball however I haven't seen a lot of the depp ball from him in his limited time. Expect to see Cal put as many guys in the box as they can and to have the secondary play press coverage to defend agianst the short ball. If Oregon can get some deep balls completed Cal will have to adjust and it will open up the entire field. Final Score Oregon 26 Cal 24

Pac 10 Power Poll and weekend thoughts . . .

I was at the coast this weekend, I caught large chunks of the WSU-USC game and the Stanford-UCLA "instant classic" . . .

Here are my Pac 10 Power Rankings

1. USC - Over 400 yards offense in the first half, nuff said!
2. UCLA - Like UW in 2000 and Oregon in 2001 this team just finds a way to win games
3. UO - I think the national media is expectign a collaspe, I think people who follow the team closely are expecting very little drop off. I see somewhere in the middle.
4. Stanford - Very weird to see them here, I thought they would give UCLA a battle and they did but I also thought UCLA would come back and they did. The big game should actually be intersting this year.
5. Cal - Decimated by injuries and overrated due to a very easy early schedule . . . but I think they will give Oregon a game becuase Tedford and Bellotti always play close games against eachother. In Oregon's favor is that Cal struggled with the spread last year when they played Texas Tech.
6. Arizona - Played Oregon tough, better hands by recievers could have meant a W against Oregon and the win at OSU was impressive though I can't comment on the game as I didn't see it.
7. Oregon State - Losing to U of A may have cost Riley and company a bowl bid.
8. Arizona State - Kind of gave up on the year I think, reminds me of Oregon in 2002.
9. Washington State - Well at least they get to play the Huskies this year.
10. Washington - They sure have a good crew team at Montlake . . .

Back to my BCS discussion and Oregon the positive was the Fresno State beat Hawaii. Not so good was Stanford blowing the lead to UCLA. Unless Shockley returns for the Auburn game and leads UGA to a win I do believe that Georgia will end the season with 3 losses

Oregon's route to the Fiesta Bowl

I know all Ducks fans would love to see Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl this year, due to some circumstances and politics I don't like the chances of that occuring however I will keep hope alive. I thought I woould take a look at Oregon's shot and some of the scenarios needed for a New Years Fiesta in Arizona for the Ducks. This of course is under the most important assumption out there, that Oregon wins it's next three games. In addition I would cheer for USC and Texas to win out, there is no way that any other Big 12 team can earn a BCS bid unless they can somehow beat Texas in the Big 12 championship game. Looking at the jokers in the North that is very unlikely. USC's ranking is Oregon's #1 SOS help so a USC loss would hurt Oregon immensely particularly if it was to a undefeated UCLA squad. Again the key is trying to eliminate as many 1 loss teams from the landscape. Undefeated BCS conference teams are mortal locks for the BCS. There are five reamining but at most only 4 could finish the season undefeated as Georgia and Alabama would match up in a hyopthetical SEC Conference championship game.

This week's team to cheer for are the following:

UNC over Miami
Illinois over Wisconsin
Nebraska over Oklahoma
Utah State over Alabma (when pigs fly . . .)
Florida over Georgia
USC over WSU
Maryland over Florida State
Purdue over Penn State
Florida over Georgia (if Georgia wins on saturday however it may be better for Oregon if the Dawgs win out and hope that at least one other team beats Alabama besides Georgia. The same scenario could be used for Alabama as well. Zero losses or two or more losses is the key number we are looking for)
Oregon State over Arizona
Stanford over UCLA (game of the week for the Ducks, UCLA needs to get another loss for helping Oregon's Fiesta and even Holiday Bowl chances)
Texas over Oklahoma State
North Texas over LSU
Montana over Portland State
Fresno State over Hawaii (very key for Oregon to have Fresno win out except for their matchup against USC as they will be most likely Oregon's 2nd highest rated opponent this year)
Arizona State over Washington

A key for Oregon would be a third loss by Notre Dame, ideally this would be against Stanford however realistically I only see Tennesse with a shot of beating the Irish. Right now I would show the following teams as making the BCS (note currently Notre Dame is ranked 15th which is not BCS eligible for an at large bid but I believe they are the most likely 2 loss team to get an at large bid due to name recognition and following)

My prediction right now for the 8 BCS bids and matchups are below:

Pac 10 - USC
Big 10 - Penn State
Big East - West Virginia
ACC - Va Tech
Big 12 - Texas
SEC- Alabama

At large Georgia and Notre Dame

The Bowl matchups would be

Rose - USC vs Texas
Orange - Va Tech vs Alabama
Sugar - Georgia vs West Virginia
Fiesta - Penn State vs Notre Dame

At large - Georgia and Notre Dame

this scenario would leave a likely 10-1 UCLA team in San Diego with a Holiday Bowl bid and a 10-1 Oregon stuck in El Paso for the Sun Bowl.

myintrotoletuknow

Thought I'd start one of these up . . . I have been on Myspace (http://www.myspace.com/pete4ducks) for almost a year and that was my first experience with the whole blog thing, been liking it so far . . . well who am I may you ask? I am a 30 year-old man (so far being 30 has rocked I was so scared to leave my 20's but it has been great) who moved from from Eugene, Oregon to Portland, Oregon in April of 2005. I guess you could say my late 20's were somewhat of a quarter-life crisis. I had a good stable job stable job that I knew how to do well but unhappiness from my personal life and boredom from the sameness of my job in Corporate America and life in general swelled up to the point where I knew I needed a change. I have enjoyed my time in Portland, in a way re-inventing myself in the process. I work for a non-profit organization in Lake Oswego I enjoy here though I hate my commute. In between leaving my job in Eugene and moving to Portland I spent a great couple of week's in Asia visiting my parents in Taiwan and then we went to Thailand to spend some time on the beach in Koh Samui and then off to Bangkok for a few days of shopping and trying to avoid the scorching heat (106 F with tons of humidity).

My interests are varied. I am a very big sports fan but outside of the NFL I could really care less about pro sports. College is definitely where I like to be when it comes to athletics viewing. My love is the University of Oregon (www.goducks.com) Ducks of-course but I just love the emotion of th college athletics so much more than professional sports. I was never very much a political person however the Bush administration really changed that for me. Somedays I hope that I could wake up from the bad dream that has been leveled on this country and planet by the Bush cartel. I guess my goals for the future are varied. I am working on plans to develop a eco-friendly resort somewhere in the developing world, whether that be Central America, the South Pacific or even somehwere else I would love the opportunity to live in paradise yet at the same time fight to protect the culture and environment of the area I move to and prove local folks with employment opportunities. I like my job now but I would really enjoy moving into something that allowed me to travel internationally frequentely, so if anyone has any ideas of how I might go about doing that I would love to hear from you.

Well that is my first blog of hopefully many to come. Hope my spelling and grammar weren't too offensive . . .

Pete