Cal/Oregon Preview

Sunset Sail
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Cal was the only team that was able to slow down the Oregon offense during the 2010 regular season so you’d think that they would have a good chance of repeating that formula in 2011. You could think that but you’d be wrong. I like Oregon to roll Cal on Thursday night in a manner that will be much more like the 2009 game at Autzen than the 2010 game in Berkeley. Cal has a lot of really nice young talent on the defensive side but this is also a unit that saw five of its players from 2010 drafted to the NFL or getting camp invites including first round pick Cameron Jordan who was a key piece in stalling out the Oregon offense in 2010. The biggest factor in the 2010 game being close in my opinion was that Oregon was not healthy at running back at the time that game was played in Berkeley and Cal did an amazing job of making tackles in space. It is very rare for Oregon to go through an entire game without breaking a long TD score on offense and Cal prevented this by staying in their lanes and wrapping up. LaMichael James was dinged up in that game with a painful ankle injury and was putting up huge numbers of carries per game (in fact he had gone over 25 carries in five of his previous six games at that point), while Kenjon Barner was still trying to get healthy after his scary concussion at WSU a month earlier. This year the Ducks have a fully healthy LMJ who has not had to carry the rock for as many carries per game while still leading the country in rushing. In addition to Kenjon Barner, the Ducks are able to throw two highly touted freshmen in to the mix with DeAnthony Thomas and Tra Carson at the Cal defense. Oregon will not need to ask LMJ to win this on his own by taking 25-30 carries because he will have healthy backups who are capable of running the ball against a P12 defense. The Bears also have done little over the last three seasons on the road to make me think that they will become the first team since 2008 to beat Oregon in Autzen Stadium. To slow down the game Cal will need to be able to run the ball effectively to keep Oregon’s offense off the field and at the same time have an efficient passing game to keep the defense honest. Taking a glance at Zach Maynard’s stats this year and you see a player that has thrown the ball a lot but is not playing very efficiently with a completion percentage in the mid 50’s. To beat Oregon I think Cal has to have balanced attack and complete those key third down and long situations. If he is not approaching 70% completions I find it pretty dubious that Cal will have much luck on third down. Cal sports a nice 1/2 wide-out combination in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones who should put up some nice numbers but in the end I think Cal will have trouble running the ball consistently for the entire game and this will allow for Oregon to run away with the win. The Ducks will put up at least 250 yards on the ground and I think it will be nice day for Cal if they can put up 150. Thomas will pick and choose when he wants to pass and the strength of the Oregon running game has made it pretty easy for Thomas to be selective (note his completion percentage of over 65% and his 12 to 1 TD to interception ratio). I see the final score of this game being 55-21 with the Ducks going to 2-0 in conference play. Cal, sporting a 3-0 OOC record should remain on track to get to six wins this season and back to a bowl game after a subpar 2010 season but will be looking at starting league play 0-2 (the win versus Colorado was a non-league game). For Oregon fans awaiting the return of Cliff Harris in a meaningful role keep waiting. Terrence Mitchell has played quite well since getting picked on a bit against LSU and doesn’t show any signs of giving up his job to Harris or anyone else for that matter. After last year I thought it would be a no brainer that Cliff would be a three and out player but barring an injury to guys in front of him Harris may spend 2011 as a non-factor and this along with his character questions can’t put him in the best light to NFL front offices. My bold prediction for this week is that Cliff Harris is a Duck in 2012.

Via Flickr:
Emily and I took a vacation to Maui in September 2011 without the girls.