Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Week 13 Review, Final Power Poll and Awards

UCLA did the unthinkable and threw a major wrench in to the BCS, USC’s amazing run of being in title games and the travel plans of LSU Tiger Supporters. Kudos to UCLA’s defense for not letting the USC receivers torch them late like the letdown that occurred late in the game against Notre Dame. UCLA showed a nice mix of blitzing and dropping back linebackers in to coverage which seemed to confuse Booty a bit. USC flat out laid an egg but give credit to UCLA who may have turned the corner with an impressive end to the year with wins over ASU, OSU and USC. Cal played quite a flat game against Stanford who gave an excellent effort yet it wasn’t enough to save the job of Walt Harris. The more I think about his firing I am not sure it is a good move. If it was based on his recruiting effort this year then maybe that makes sense but frankly the cupboard was completely bare from the Teevens era and in 2005 outside of the Cal-Davis game Stanford was quite competitive when they had a ton of seniors on the defensive side. It will be interesting to see who takes this job which faces some major issues in high academic standards, lack of recent bowl appearances, a very high cost area and a fan base that can’t be called rabid. A huge issue head coaches face at Stanford is the issue of the high cost of living making it very difficult to attract assistant coaches. $125,000 doesn’t take you very far in Palo Alto when you have a family while the same $125,000 in Pullman, Eugene or Corvallis makes one very well off. As for Cal I look for them to lay a major egg in the Holiday Bowl. This team hasn’t played very well this season against bowl teams outside the games versus ASU and Oregon, despite winning 7 games in conference, and I think that the players much like those at Oregon have been listening too much to their pre-season press clippings. In the final game of the college regular season Oregon State beat a very fired up and dangerous Hawaii team on the road which all things considered was a pretty impressive win. Note to Hawaii fans, stop throwing your trash on the field!

2006 Offensive MVP – Marshuan Lynch, Cal – Honorable mention to John David Booty, USC and Yvensen Bernard OSU.

2006 Defensive MVP – Daymeion Hughes, Cal – Honorable mention to Mkristo Bruce WSU, and Blair Phillips, UO

2006 Coach of the Year – Mike Riley, OSU Honorable mention to Ty Willingham UW and Pete Carroll USC

2006 Newcomer of the Year – Dexter Manley Jr – Honorable mention to Emanuel Moody USC and Chris Henry, UA

2006 Most Disappointing Team – Cal Bears – Dis-honorable mention to Oregon and ASU.

2006 Over Achieving Team – Oregon State Beavers - Honorable Mention – UCLA Bruins and Washington Huskies

2006 Comeback Player of the Year – Matt Moore, OSU – Honorable mention to Nate Longshore, Cal and Isaiah Stanback, UW

2006 Final Power Poll:

USC (1) – When it comes down to it this frankly wasn’t a very good team on the road but even so came within two plays of being in the BCS championship yet again. Going in to the season I figured USC would lose 2 games and that ended up happening. Being that this is a fairly young team with unfinished business I see them being the #1 team in the nation at the start of 2007 as long a Pete Carroll is not coaching the Arizona Cardinals. Team MVP: The entire USC front seven I can’t just single out one guy. They kept the boat afloat for most of the season and gave their much less efficient offense a chance to win every game. Without the defensive improvement seen from the 2005 to 2006 season USC could have finished with 2 or 3 more loses.
UCLA (3) – Major credit goes to UCLA for finishing the season out strong with wins over ASU, OSU and USC after a very difficult middle stretch. Karl Dorrell deserves a contract extension and has things set in the right way for 2007. If the offense opens up a bit more UCLA should be able to compete for the conference title in 2007 though faces the problem off having to play on the road at USC next year. Team MVP: Defensive Coordinator Dewayne Walker: UCLA was a 10 win team last though only because they were able to win a bunch of shootouts. Walker came in and in one year turned UCLA in to team that held both UCLA and Notre Dame to under 20 point games.
OSU (4) – No one outside of the players and coaches probably would have thought after the loss to WSU in the Pac 10 opener at home that OSU would end up with a chance to win 10 games. Kudos to Mike Riley for keeping his team together and not pulling Matt Moore from the starting line-up. Kudos to the Oregon State defense and special teams for taking advantage of almost every mistake made by their often “more talented opponents”. Finally kudos to Matt Moore for ignoring all the garbage thrown his way by OSU fans and students and persevere. Much credit goes to him for not forcing the passes that he did in 2005 so often. A big boo goes to the pathetic Oregon State fans and students, you didn’t deserve the effort your team brought you in 2006. Team MVP Yvensen Bernard, not the biggest of backs but had plenty of heart and put up another 1000 yard season in quiet fashion.
Cal (2) – Frankly 2006 has to go down as a major disappointment for the Cal Bears. The hype machine shown a bit too bright on this team before the season started and things just didn’t work out the way many had predicted. Cal’s defense was not up to snuff even with the amazing Daymeion Hughes being the nations best cornerback. The fall injury to opposite corner and special-teams maven Tim Mixon really hurt this team. If Cal can show the type of defensive improvement that USC and UCLA showed from 2005 to 2006 this is still a team with national title chances in 2007 but one of these days Jeff Tedford will need to live up to the hype. Team MVP: Daymeion Hughes, even in a down year for the Cal defense Hughes still proved to be the best cover corner in America.
ASU (5) – ASU is one of those teams ala Clemson and Michigan State that ever year looks much better on paper than they actually are and ends up showing some flashes of greatness before imploding. 2006 was no exception and the ASU brass decided that a change in direction is what is needed after the debacle of the Carpenter-Keller QB controversy. In college football they say you are what you are. Do I think a new coach will do much better at ASU than Dirk Koetter, no not really. Maybe it is the sun, the co-eds or the party-scene but for some reason ASU always underachieves almost every year and then makes a Rose Bowl every decade or so. Koetter did a nice job ruining Mike Stoops almost breakout season though it was helped by the cheap helmet to helmet shot that may have ended the career of Willy Tuitama. Team MVP: Ryan Torain. ASU was able to run the ball quite effectively in 2006 despite the massive injury damage to the Offensive Line and Rudy Carpenter’s loss of confidence after the Cal game.
UA (6) – Arizona and Mike Stoops were on top of the world after beating Cal and Oregon in back to back November games and a bowl game looked to be in the cards for the first time since the end of the Dick Tomey era. However a soon to be fired Dirk Koetter and ASU came in and ran the ball down the throat of the Wildcat D early and got off to a 21-0 lead. A questionable hit to the helmet knocked out Willy Tuitama giving the promising young man his third major concussion in a little over a year. The thought has to be out there that Tuitama may not be able to complete his career due to the injuries. Arizona is clearly not a very good team offensively without him on the field. A healthy Tuitama in 2007 and this is a team with an outside shot to deliver big in the conference and even challenge for that elusive first Rose Bowl bid, however no Tuitama and all those plans could go up in smoke when everyone brings 9 guys to stop Chris Henry and forcing the Cats in to a one dimensional offense with a substandard back-up QB. Team MVP: Notice a trend here? Willy Tuitama will be the most important offensive player to his team in 2007 if he is indeed able to play.
UO (7)- What started out so promising ended with a “moral victory” in a loss to rival Oregon State in Corvallis. Looking back at the season Oregon was able to put up some terrific numbers against some mediocre teams and got lucky with the whole Oklahoma game which if you turn from a win to a loss gave Oregon only two wins over bowl teams. Bellotti was probably a bit too loyal to Dennis Dixon and in the end probably did more damage to the young man’s confidence by not pulling him earlier in the season say a nice long stint on the bench for the Portland State game. Dixon didn’t improve as the year went on and panicked after early mistakes and unless he shows an improvement a-la Akili Smith from 97 to 98 the Dixon era at Oregon looks to be a disappointment. If Oregon can cut a turnover a game they have the chance to go out and win 10 games next year as the schedule is much more favorable despite a trip to Ann Arbor in September. The question of the off-season will be who is next year’s QB, Brady Leaf or Dennis Dixon. Team MVP: Blair Phillips. Phillips was a warrior on a team that had unbelievable injury issues on the defensive side of the ball. He will be incredibly missed.
UW (8) – At one point this team was 4-1 with only a loss on the road to Oklahoma and was sniffing the Top 25. Then Oregon State came to town put up a nice lead and then the unfortunate career ending injury to Isaiah Stanback occurred and the Washington season went down in flames. Stanback was clearly the heart and soul of this team along with being their only offensive playmaker. As for next year UW will likely sooner or later start the Jake Locker era as the mistake prone Carl Bonnell isn’t likely going to be taking any teams to the promised land soon. Had Stanback not gone down UW at a minimum would have defeated Stanford and would have been bowl eligible. 5 wins was about the upside I saw for Washington this season and that is what they achieved however I give the players who have bought in to coach Ty’s system credit. 2007 may end up being a step back but by 2008 I think UW will be back within the top half of the Pac 10 on a consistent basis. The days of Don James are forever gone but the potential to have a program along the level of what Oregon, UCLA and Cal have now is certainly easily within reach. Team MVP: Isaiah Stanback. If Stanback doesn’t go down and the Dawgs win 7 or 8 games then I might have put him as Pac 10 MVP.
WSU (9) – After beating Oregon and UCLA in October the Cougars found themselves in the Top 25 at 6-3 then they quickly were destroyed by injuries and even lost to a dreadful UW team who had lost by 18 to Stanford the previous week. All in despite some q breakout season by Mkristo Bruce this was not a vintage WSU season and outside of having a starting QB who will be a senior next year I don’t see any reason to think that WSU will have any better of a season next year. Jason Hill was injured and probably made a poor financial choice by not declaring for last season’s draft. Michael Bumpus had a lot of catches but wasn’t the deep threat that was needed to open up the running lanes and the Cougars were not able to be put up the type of yards that Harrison had put up last year. Team MVP: Mkristo Bruce. When healthy this was the scariest man in the league to opposing QB’s and running-backs.
LSJU (10) – The 2006 Stanford campaign will likely go down in as one of the worst in the history of the Pac 10. In the last decade I would probably only compare it to the 2001 season of the Cal Bears. All in all the administration decided to cut the cords with Walt Harris after only two years. Harris did take a Pitt team to the BCS in 2004 however said team only won 7 games and in my opinion was the worst BCS team since the whole thing started back in 1998 with, ironically, the 1999 version of Stanford likely being it’s top competition for the title. There is nothing good to say about the Stanford program right except that they have a pretty stadium. It would be difficult to have a worse 2007 than 2006 to think that Stanford will be back to the level of even 2005 next year is a bit ambitious. Team MVP: The people who designed the stadium redesign. The Cardinal have a pretty new house to play in, if they get a winner back there Stanford games may start becoming fun again.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 12 Review



The big news of this week was obviously USC’s beat down of Notre Dame. Pete Carroll clearly out-coached Weis and Notre Dame just couldn’t get it done in the red-zone. USC now is just 60 minutes away from playing OSU for the BCS Championship. Much kudos to Pete Carroll who I have criticized rightfully in the past for some questionable in game decisions but since the OSU wake-up call USC has played very smart ball. Not sure that they have the experience to beat Ohio State yet but next year this team should be the surefire #1 to start the season. In other news Arizona State beat Arizona in a game that was aided by the knocking out of Willy Tuitama on a cheap shot. Arizona clearly can’t win over anyone outside of Stanford without their QB and there has to be worries now that he has suffered 3 concussions in less than a year. As reward for beating his in-state rival Dirk Koetter was let go off his duties though will receive a nice buyout and should be seen sometime soon as an OC somewhere around the country. Oregon and Oregon State was a classic game that clearly came down to which team had the better kicker. Give the Beavs credit for taking advantage of every mistake Oregon made. Also give credit to Bellotti for giving Brady Leaf a shot, he played a smarter game than Dixon would have and the Ducks overall showed great improvement over their last three performances in Corvallis.

  1. USC (1) – Have had no problem in rolling through their “gauntlet” of a schedule since the Stanford game. Now all that stands between them and the BCS championship game is a feisty but ultimately lacking in playmakers UCLA team.
  2. Cal (2) – Likely Holiday Bowl bound the BCS has yet to release them from consideration for a Rose Bowl bid. They shouldn’t have much problems with Stanford this week but I wonder how much motivation they have left for the Holiday Bowl.
  3. UCLA (3) – The win over ASU two weeks ago looks better now that the Devils beat the Cats. UCLA will need to play the best game of the Karl Dorrell era to beat the Trojans. I have a feeling UCLA loses to USC but find them-selves spending Christmas in Hawaii.
  4. OSU (4) – Did just enough to beat Oregon, many thanks due to the lack of mistakes by the offense and the leg of Alexis Serna. On the other hand what in the world was Mike Riley doing throwing the ball late in the 4th quarter with the big lead? They now face the mother off all “trap” games in Hawaii before the Sun Bowl becons.
  5. ASU (7) – The Territorial Cup is usually won by the underdog, this year was no exception but still the Devils fired Dirk Koetter. I’d expect to see them in the Insight Bowl, as for coaching candidates Norm Chow would be killer there.
  6. UA (5) – Huge letdown for the Cats to lose to ASU at home but the Tuitama injury didn’t help at all. However the Arizona defense was clueless for the first 20 minutes of this game and allowed ASU to get 3 early TD’s. Now UA will play the waiting game to see if they can make it to a bowl. The likely Candidate I would say is the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco.
  7. UO (6) – To call the 2006 Oregon season a disappointment is probably an understatement. The Ducks played a very inspired second half against Oregon State which was surprising considering the lack of second half efforts over much of the season. The Ducks have 7 wins and the Las Vegas Bowl has gone on record as saying they don’t want a 6-6 team so I would wager the Ducks end up in Las Vegas.
  8. UW (8) – Nothing new to add from last week, the Huskies season is still over and eyes are on hoops.
  9. WSU (9) – The Cougars have 6 wins but I don’t see them getting a bowl invite.
  10. Stanford (10) – The stadium should be full for the Big Game. The biggest question that remains is whether Saturday’s game will be the final one of the Walt Harris era.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Week 11 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Well what some had thought would be the year that saw USC’s reign at the top end never came as the Trojans were able to beat Cal who can now only get a share of the championship with a win over Stanford and a USC loss to UCLA, then it would only be a shared championship with a loss to the team that they are tied with. USC is now two games from playing in yet another national championship game. On paper it looked like this was the most vulnerable year for the Trojans but good play and a favorable home schedule helped out Pete Carroll’s boys yet again. The big news outside of LA was the upset of the Oregon Ducks by Arizona. I personally sat through this game and have never seen such as uninspired and ill prepared Oregon team take the field. Oregon has been taken to the woodshed quite a few times in the last few years but in those games they were at least able to play well in the first half or mount second half comebacks. This game was lost by a combination of poor play by the defense, offense and special teams. Amazing how Oregon has gone in the tank offensively after the hot September where many folks thought they had the nation’s best offense. Outside of 2005 which was a mirage due to an easy schedule Oregon has been a disappointing program since the departure of Joey Harrington and Jeff Tedford. Kudos to the Washington Huskies for having the intestinal fortitude to win the Apple Cup after losing at home to Stanford. The result was quite unfortunate for the Cougars who have gone in to a tailspin since beating Oregon. UCLA got a nice win against an up and down ASU team and gave them-selves at least a chance to get a bowl invite even if they lose to USC.

USC (1) – Likely outright Pac 10 champs for the 4th successive season USC now finds itself two wins away from playing for another BCS championship. USC has been dominant since the 3rd quarter of the Oregon State game and I expect them beat Notre Dame in what hopefully is a game on par with the quality of last year’s match-up.
Arizona (4) – Left for dead a month ago Mike Stoops has not only saved his job he has a contender for next year’s Pac 10 title. This team has become the team that many in the national media predicted before the season, it just took about 9 games for them to get to that point. The question for Stoops next year is whether he can keep up the momentum.
Cal (2) – All in all when you look at the whole of this season Cal fans have to consider it a disappointment. Their defense played well enough to beat both Arizona and USC but they were let down by the offense. Will Cal lay down in their bowl game like they did in the 2004 Holiday Bowl?
UCLA (6) – Dorrell avoid getting himself in trouble with a losing season. This team likely ends up 6-6 which is right about where I figured they would end up. They have the pieces to get back to 9 wins next season if the offense can open a bit more. Maurice Drew was sorely missed from this year’s Bruin team. UCLA now has two weeks to prepare for USC and if they have the effort they got against Notre Dame should at least make this game competitive.
OSU (7) – Went out and won on the road, joining three other road teams who landed tough November wins, well okay this one wasn’t tough but a win is a win in November on the road. Oregon State now looks ready to pour salt in the once might Ducks wounds in a game I’d expect to get very ugly fast.
UO (3) – The Ducks look like they have quit to me. The program seems to have morphed from that of a plucky bunch of overachievers to one that is more reminiscent of the late 90’s Trojan teams of Paul Hackett. Lots of talent but fold when things don’t go their way after a fast start. I expect a loss in Corvallis and then a poor performance in a third tier bowl where the Ducks drop a winnable game to a team that just wants to be there a whole lot more than them. Good thing Wake Forest won’t be the opponent his year.
ASU (5) – Dirk Koetter seems to love being a .500 coach. It seems as if the underdog usually wins the battle for state bragging rights in the UA-ASU rivalry but this year I expect the Cats to be the team that ends up with 7 wins not ASU. This season was probably doomed from the whole fallout of the Keller-Carpenter QB battle which wasn’t handled well by the coach.
UW (10) – Best wishes to Johnny DuRocher, now who’d have eve thought you’d hear those words out of my mouth. The Dawgs no matter how bad things get still know how to ruin WSU’s year and accomplished it in another disappointing Apple Cup for the Cougars.
WSU (8) – 2006, yep still Cooging it. They join the likely log jam of 3 6 win teams hoping for bowl bids and they are likely the last one chosen. I think they ended their season last week.
LSJU (9) – Two weeks till the Big Game. I’d expect Stanford to be loose and Cal to not care much. Still the Bears will win this one by at least 14 and the Trees can thankfully end their year of hell.

Monday, November 13, 2006

Week 11 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

The Pac 10 is usually a pretty wacky conference and last Saturday proved to be one of the strangest days in recent history not just in the Pac 10 but nationally. Underdogs won 4 of 5 games in the Pac 10, 3 of them by wide margins. USC which was all but given up for the dead in the BCS race just two weeks ago now needs to beat Notre Dame at home and UCLA on the road and they will be facing the Michigan Ohio State winner in the national championship game (what a shame this won’t be played in the Rose Bowl if this is in case the match-up). The question facing me this week in my power poll was where how rank teams 3-8 who in the last 6 weeks have pummeled each-other in to submission. Do you look at the quality of your wins or your losses? No one on this list of the 6 midrange teams in this league has more than one real quality win on their slate while if you simply look at who teams have lost to then Oregon probably has the best argument however their only quality win of the year has a huge asterisk next to it. Kudos to Arizona for basically pulling a Chicago Bears and winning a game with virtually no offense and running any hopes of a national title shot in Berkeley. The Bears can still make the Rose Bowl with a win in LA next weekend but confidence has to be low and the Trojans are playing their best ball of the year in the time that counts. Jeers to OSU and UW for crapping on themselves and blowing what should have been very winnable games. Oregon again had very shaky play from Dennis Dixon and though they were able to move the ball on USC quite effectively turned the ball over in very poor situations leading to too many short fields for USC. Oregon’s first drive was masterful, to get no points out of it was indicative of the day. At this point it looks as if the Pac 10 will likely only end up with 2 teams in the top 25 in the final poll before the bowls and if Cal goes out and lays a stinker in the Holiday and suffers its 4th loss they might find themselves out of the Top 25. While 6 weeks ago many were saying that the pack had caught up to the lead dog in this conference the facts now just don’t seem to bear that out. A large number of 5 and 6 win teams are out there in the conference, no 6 win team is allowed a bowl bid until every 7 win team out there has received a bid. As of now only Oregon has 7 wins and UCLA and Arizona will need to win two games to get there. Oregon State should be safe to get to 7 wins with Stanford remaining on the schedule but everyone else will have some issues getting their requisite 7 wins.

USC (2) - Just executed a lot better than Oregon did, on paper USC is probably not 28 points better than the Ducks but they sure played like they wanted it a whole lot more. Ironically USC’s loss to OSU seems to have meant nothing in the BCS now. Had they beat the Beavs they would still be sitting at #2 or #3 in the BCS and assured a spot in the BCS championship game with wins versus Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA.
Cal (1) - Cal fell victim to the onerous trap game syndrome in Tucson and lost all chances of playing for a national championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can get off the mat and beat USC in the Coliseum, easier said than done. Cal needs to get back to running the ball more I think. Arizona did a good job of containing the two headed monster. The Tedford offense has always been one that requires balance and that didn’t happen versus the Wildcats, Longshore didn’t make good decisions and if he can’t afford such mistakes against USC.
UO (3) – Not sure Oregon deserves to be here. This is a talented team that has overachieved on defense and has been highly productive against mediocre teams on offense at the same time they have been mistake prone and this has killed them in games versus similar or better talent teams. The have only 2 wins over teams with over .500 records and one of those wins has a huge asterisk beside it due to the oft repeated replay issue versus Oklahoma. The Ducks are a good team at home only right now, that doesn’t bode well for the Civil War match-up in two weeks in Corvallis.
UA (7) - Mike Stoops isn’t much of a coach in September and October but he sure can coach in November. He now is one win from being bowl eligible and should put a scare in to Oregon this week in Eugene. Arizona still has major issues on offense, they beat Cal by forcing mistakes in the passing game and shutting down the run. This model could work brilliantly against the Ducks. I expect a close game. Arizona has 3 wins over at the time Top 25 schools but only have 5 wins overall.
ASU (6) – Dismantled the wounded Cougars and got to 6 wins and will face a UCLA team at home that needs to beat ASU to even have a shot at a bowl with 6 wins. I think ASU is playing well enough at home to win this one which will clinch up a bowl bid for them before they play the Wildcats for state bragging rights.
UCLA (8) – They handily defeated the Beavs so I had to rank them higher this week but fairly or not Karl Dorrell could be facing the firing squad if UCLA doesn’t beat ASU and make a close game of the match-up versus USC. UCLA has talent and I hope Dorrell gets another shot to coach them next year but I don’t see how they can get to 7 wins and even getting to 6 will be tough. Their kids showed a lot of character in shutting down the Beavs who had been on quite a run lately.
OSU (4) – Took a big drop this week. I expected more of this team but UCLA certainly had Matt Moore’s number last year and that trend continued. Oregon State will now need to rebound down on the farm before the Civil War is played. Quite a key game for the Beavs to take care of business as wins versus Oregon and Hawaii will take A games to get victories. Oregon State has a habit of being beat twice by tough losses so Riley needs to make sure there is not letdown against Stanford.
WSU (5) – At one time this was a Top 25 team with quite a resume and had Holiday Bowl thoughts on their mind. Now they need to take care of woeful UW at home this week to ensure they get to play one more game. The Cougars have been decimated by injuries since they defeated Oregon in a game the Ducks would love to replay now. Strange things always happen in the Apple Cups especially when they are played in Pullman.
Stanford (10) – The unthinkable happened and Stanford won a game, on the road even. Is this enough to save Walt Harris? Kudos to the kids at Stanford for not giving up on the year and I hope they enjoyed their celebration. Now they come home with a chance to ruin Oregon State’s season in what should be a very ugly game. Mike Riley has built his resume on beating bad teams so I like Oregon State but the win at Washington proves that middle range teams can’t just show up if they plan on beating Stanford.
UW (9) – What a difference a competent dual threat QB can make, Washington was on the verge of the Top 25 before Isaiah Stanback’s career was ended prematurely on the turf in Washington’s crushing loss to Oregon State, now they are nursing a long losing streak and have nothing to play for but to ruin another Cougar football season with an Apple Cup win. As low as it has been for the Washington program lately the loss by 17 at home to Stanford maybe well be the nadir for this one proud program. I almost feel sorry for them, almost.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Week 10 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Well being the Pac 10 you know that one thing can be guaranteed just about every week this season and that is that there will be an upset that not many people saw happening to a ranked opponent. This week pretty much every game turned out what one might expect, though ASU I thought would have played better than they did, except for the Arizona – WSU match-up in the Palouse. Maybe Washington State forgot to eat their Wheaties this week but to lose a home game to Arizona is just not acceptable especially when you are sitting in the Top 25 and have the tie breaker for the third spot in the Pac 10 over Oregon and Oregon State. This victory has to be huge for the morale of the Wildcats somehow found an offense over the weekend and did a good job of shutting down the Cougar air attack. The key match-up this week is the Oregon-USC game, the Ducks played a nice game versus UW but were still hurt by turnovers. Oregon can’t afford to go -2 versus USC to have any shot at winning. Both these teams are close to unstoppable if they don’t turn the ball over so the defense that rises up to the occasion should lead their team to victory in a game that will likely see more than 60 combined points. I like the Trojans to win a close game because they have the better defensive unit (now if Oregon were not missing 5 starters that might not be the case). I heard on a TV news program that Karl Dorrell was going to lose his job after the season and that the Cal game was the final nail in the coffin. If this is the case I will be pretty disappointed in the UCLA AD. Dorrell went out and won 10 games this year and lost most of his starting 22 to graduation or the NFL after last season. This was expected to be a rebuilding year in Westwood, outside of dropping the UW game all the games the Bruins have lost this year have been ones they have not been favored to win though I do think the score should have been closer in the WSU game. UCLA’s second half schedule has arguably been the nation’s toughest. I think if UCLA can open their offense up a bit next year they should have a solid year, most of the starting 22 will be back from what has been up until lately a pretty solid defensive club. Beating the white hot Beavers this week would be a key W for Dorrell in his argument to be allowed another year in Westwood.

1. Cal (1) – Still rolling along well though giving up 24 to UCLA at home is a bit much for what you would expect Cal to be allowing this late in the year. The season still is going to come down to the USC game. I don’t think Tucson will be a trap game for Cal, the Wildcats are now back on everyone’s radar after beating the Cougars so I don’t think Cal will look past them even with the Trojan game the following week.
2. USC (2) – I though USC minus 28.5 was a steal in the Stanford and this was proven by the Trojans going out and pasting Stanford 42-0. Oregon will not go down so easily, the Trojans still control their own Pac 10 destiny but the shot at the NCAA championship game is likely gone looking at the BCS numbers out there. USC will no doubt see their schedule strength rise but the human voters are down on them right now.
3. OSU (4) – Talked to a Beaver fan before the tailgate at the Oregon-Washington game this weekend. He said he wished that OSU had lost to USC, now that they beat USC Riley was bound to stay another couple years. To the Oregon State coaches and players I just want to say you deserve better from your fans, keep playing for yourselves. All of a sudden the Beavers look like the 1994 Ducks who lost some early games, had the fans calling for a new coach and QB and then went out and made it to the Rose Bowl. The Beavs could win out from here and will have to look back at that WSU loss they let slip away as what really cost them this season more so than the Cal and Boise State games.
4. UO (6) – Nice bounce back game for the Oregon Ducks who ran the ball relentlessly on the Huskies and held UW to 13 yards on the ground. The score was closer than the game was due to some turnovers by the Ducks offense and special teams. Not sure if they have the horses left to beat the Trojans in LA.
5. WSU (3) – Congrats Cougars you just suffered the worst home loss of any Pac 10 team this season that is in bowl contention, though due to the Pac 10’s awful bowl rotation does it really matter where you finish after the first two spots?
6. ASU (5) – God awful performance by ASU, I clearly have been over-ranking this team all year. Interesting to see which team wins the WSU-ASU match-up this week as both are coming off highly disappoint performances. Look for Rick Neuheisel’s name to be thrown around about the ASU and UCLA jobs, neither school will touch him by the way.
7. UA (9) – First time that Arizona has gotten out of the 9 hole in quite awhile. Not that it is receiving much publicity but WSU losing to Arizona at home was a more unlikely outcome than USC losing to Oregon State. The national implications and historical implications were obviously not comparable but the score was just as shocking in my book.
8. UCLA (8) – I am not surprised that they have lost 4 in a row as they played quite a tough schedule. Losing by 14 in Berkeley is not something to fire a coach over.
9. UW (7) – The wheels on the bus finally have fallen off. Washington was clearly outmatched by Oregon but Stanford is coming to Montlake and that should ensure a 5th win for the Huskies. The Apple Cup now looks like it could (and I emphasize could) give the Dawgs a shot get to .500 , a week ago I wouldn’t have thought that possible but the Cougs proved again that they are capable of crapping the bed just when things are starting to get good for them.
10. LSJU (10) – They have a top notch water polo progam

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Week Nine Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

October 28th will be forever remembered in not only Corvallis but in locales across the West Coast. It was the day that the Pete Carroll USC dynasty officially ended. It is an old adage that if you win the turnover battle and you will usually win the game. Oregon State managed to force 4 turnovers while turnover prone Matt Moore and his mates surrendered none. Oregon State while certainly not the better team nor the more talented team was better for one day in a game that proved what college football is about. On the other hand I wonder how many Beaver fans have decided to bag out on hunting season now and go to the Civil War. What was an empty bandwagon has been filled once more. Mike Riley deserves credit for keeping him team together, I hope that the students and alumni who were calling for his head on a plate and called for the premature ending of the Matt Moore era enjoyed some crow last Saturday. The Pac 10 race is now Cal’s to lose and it appears that all chances of a 2 BCS Bowl season for the league are over along with the extra 400K in the coffers of each school’s budget. Now it will come down to Cal and USC for the Rose while the remaining schools, except for Stanford and unless they pull out a miracle Arizona, will fight to get to the remaining bowl games. Six wins gets you a chance (but all 7 win schools nationally get first bid on bowls) so 7 will be the magic number to guarantee one a spot.

Power Poll

1. Cal (2) – This week marks the first time USC has not been leading my poll since it debuted last year. Cal has not played a solid game since the Oregon game and one has to believe that the Fighting Tedfords enjoyed their bye-week and got healthy. I don’t see Cal having much problem from a reeling UCLA in Strawberry Canyon this week though UCLA’s defense should at least keep Cal from breaking the 40 point barrier.
2. USC (1) – The mighty giant was finally knocked off, that USC lost was not a surprise though I don’t think many folks predicted it would have been by the now resurgent Beavs who have won 3 straight league match-ups. USC now will need to beat Cal and not fumble up against Stanford, UCLA or Oregon to have any greater hopes than the Holiday Bowl, a game which they have never actually played in. USC will start a new streak this week as they will be down on the Farm against hapless Stanford in a game that could see USC put up 50+ points.
3. WSU (4) – The Cougars now find themselves in the Top 25 after beating down UCLA who has watched their once promising season go down the tubes. Arizona shouldn’t present much of a problem for WSU who has been playing as well on offense as anyone in the conference the last two weeks. Special team injuries may be a concern but do you really need a punter and kicker for Arizona at home?
4. OSU (7) – You beat USC and you go up the charts. OSU will now go for 4 in a row with the match-up versus ASU down in Tempe. Typically after a huge upset such as the one the Beavers pulled off there is a letdown, I will predict that ASU ends up defeating the Beavers in Tempe in a game where the winner has a good shot at going to the Sun Bowl. In addition, Mike Riley has saved his job as OSU coach for all extensive purposes, save for losing out this year.
5. ASU (3) – Won a tough game on the road against UW but another injury on the line will hamper ASU as they host the suddenly hot Beavs. Normally I wouldn’t drop a team that won a road game two spots but the great efforts of WSU on the road and OSU against USC trump ASU beating an injury depleted UW in OT.
6. UO (5) – Yes the Ducks won last week and yes they are 6-2 right now but this team is a shell of what is once was due to injuries. That UO is 6-2 right now is a coaching miracle with the extent of injuries suffered by Oregon and with the turnover ratio. Oregon looks headed for the Vegas or Emerald Bowl and will have a tough time winning any of the remaining two road games on the schedule. For the Ducks it is 1998 all over again in terms of how the year may play out.
7. UW (8) – UW played just well enough to lose and now likely faces another losing season with two remaining road games against fierce rivals Oregon and Wazzu. Washington should have enough left in the tank to beat Stanford and give the Ducks a game but Husky fans will look back all year at the hiccup they faced with OSU and the injury to Stanback in that game. All in all the season has been a minor success in Montlake but not what it looked like it could have been a month ago.
8. UCLA (6) UCLA faced an easy early schedule but is now in freefall mode. The likelihood of a bowl game looks pretty glim now for coach Dorrell and I wouldn’t discount the chance that UCLA will not win another game this year. This has to be looked at as a huge step back for a program that won 10 games in 2005.
9. Arizona (9) – At 3-5 a bowl game is still a mathematical possibility but in all reality the season is over. AD Livengood says Stoops is not in any danger, is this the dreaded vote of confidence or will Stoops get another shot?
10. Stanford (10) – And the hits just keep on coming. The Trees get to host an angry Trojan team and even having a bye will not help them keep the Trojans from scoring less than 40.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Week 8 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll




For most of the season it has appeared that USC, Cal and Oregon were a step or two ahead of the rest of the conference, however with USC struggling to win close games, Oregon self destructing in Pullman and Cal needing overtime to beat a Husky team at home without it’s starting QB you have to wonder if the herd has caught up to the Pac. A couple of schools who were all but left for dead a few weeks ago, Oregon State and Washington State, have cashed in some big wins and are back in the bowl race while early favorite Oregon, ranked as high as 11th before the loss in Berkeley has seen their season turn in to one where the best likely scenario sees them spending some time right after Christmas enjoying all that Ciudad Juarez has to offer. Like in 1998 Oregon has taken too many hits on the injury front and the offense has come one-dimensional and turnover prone. Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon have been quite disappointing the last three weeks and one has to wonder if Brady Leaf and Jeremiah Johnson deserve more playing time based on their performances in Pullman. Two gallant efforts in loses by UCLA and Washington seem to show me that their caches are taken their schools in the right direction though they need to learn how to finish, particularly in the case of UCLA. As for Stanford and Arizona basketball season is almost upon us.

1. USC (1) – Defeated BYE this week and in doing so got some much needed rest for a young and injury depleted team. Carroll and company hopefully used the extra practice time to find their offense which is performing at half speed compared to what we have seen since 2002. The Trojans face a resurgent Beaver team coming off road two wins, but I give OSU no chance in this game for a three factors. One being that Mike Riley teams don’t beat ranked competition. Two, the horrific on the bandwagon, off the bandwagon, on the bandwagon again, soon to be off the bandwagon once more if USC scores early fan base has made the Bean Dip a house of horrors for the home team. The Beavers could learn a few lessons from the fans of South Carolina who have supported their team year after losing year in a program whose bowl history is similar to Oregon State. Finally the most important factor is that Oregon State lacks the athletes of USC
2. Cal (2) – Not sure how a team forces 4 interceptions in regulation while throwing none of their own and still needs to go to OT to beat a team they are favored to beat by 18. Well last second scores in both halves made this game appear much closer than it ended up being but Cal definitely needs to worry about the secondary outside of Mr Hughes. The Bears are clinging to an outside shot at still having a BCS championship opportunity and need to play with a bit more conviction after two sub-par games versus the Washington schools.
3. Arizona State (4) – Arizona State at least on paper could win out. The key will be pass protection, basically if Rudy Carpenter gets the time the Devils have the weapons to beat any team left on their schedule and their two toughest match-ups with WSU and UCLA will both be in Tempe. Beating Stanford probably doesn’t tell us much about ASU but true to form Dirk Koetter wins the games he is supposed to and not much else. As ASU will likely be favored from here on out they have a distinct possibility to finish the year with 9 wins. Amazingly due to the terrible bowl arrangements that the Pac 10 has the conference could have 4 teams with 9 or more wins with only two of those losses being not against each other and still only get one bid. This will happen if USC beats Cal which will knock Cal out of the BCS in almost any scenario.
4. Washington State (6 ) – For the first time all year a member of the perceived “Big 3” has been knocked out of the perch (Oregon) and has been replaced by school who has lost to three teams in the BCS Top 11. Looking back the result of the Oregon game was pretty predictable. Eugene homeboy Ben Brink led the Cougars with grit and made only one mistake all game and it came so late it was all but meaningless while the Ducks offense under Dixon and Stewart became mistake prone, predictable and downright ineffective until Oregon brought in Brady Leaf and the Cougars went prevent. Due to tie breakers over Oregon WSU actually still has a legit shot at the Holiday Bowl if Cal wins the Pac 10, a scenario which is all but impossible for Oregon even though they could finish 10-2 and in the Top 15 in the final BCS. The Cougars can clinch up a bowl spot with a win at what has to be a mentally beat down UCLA in what is most certainly the Pac 10 game of the week.
5. Oregon (3) – This year reminds of the early Bellotti regime. A hot September filled with lots of offense and promise and then an October swoon. Luckily Oregon faces a de-facto bye-week versus Portland State to prepare for a much tougher than expected Washington who has likely been circling this game all year. The Ducks can’t continue to turn the ball over at the rate they have been doing. The main culprits in this sense have been Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart who needed to play smarter and with greater toughness. What was once a team with sky’s the limit national aspirations looks destined for a third tier bowl somewhere in the nations southwest region.
6. UCLA ( 5) – Great effort in South Bend came all for not when UCLA decided to run the prevent you from winning defense and didn’t pressure Brady Quinn on the final drive after hitting him upside the head the whole game which let Notre Dame score a late TD to win the game. You get so few opportunities to win games like that, UCLA, despite a great effort was let down by their coaching staff in my opinion. UCLA now will host a good WSU team at home in a game that Dorrell desperately needs to get to a bowl game.
7. Oregon State (7) – Won a second straight road game but now face a return to the unfriendly confines of Bean Dip Field. Will the fans and students turn quickly or Moore and Riley if USC scores early? The Beavers are on the cusp of a bowl but will need to win 3 more games this year to get there. USC will not be one of those three wins.
8. Washington (8) – In a very weird game Washington was able to take Cal to overtime before they were done in a foolish Carl Bonnell pass and the running of Marshaun Lynch. Kudos to Coach Willingham for getting his team up enough to take Cal down to the wire but frankly this team faces major issues at QB. Bonnell has to make better decisions to have any chance of winning and I wouldn’t count on any more Hailmarys to work this year. Give Washington’s defense major credit for keeping the score relatively low despite all the interceptions.
9. Arizona (9) – The loss to Oregon State may well have sealed Mike Stoops fate. This team is boring, beat up and dejected.
10. Stanford (10) – Put this horse to sleep. This team may go down as not only the worst Pac 10 team of the last 20 years but may be the worst BCS conference team since its inception. I just don’t see a win on the remaining schedule

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Week Seven Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

This week was a painful one for starting QB’s. Washington lost their starting QB and arguably most important player to a season ending injury. Arizona is now looking at Kris Heavner starting as Willie Tuitama and Adam Austin are both hurt and Stanford now faces life without both Trent Edwards and TC Ostrander. As has been the case this year Cal, Oregon and USC are clearly the most talented teams in the Pac 10 and though they haven’t always won pretty they are winning all the games they should and I don’t see that changing. Washington really is in a world of hurt now in their attempt to get back to a bowl game. The offense was really based around the mobility of Stanback and either Carl Bonnell or Johnny Durocher will not provide the same sense of mobility that will keep opposing offenses at bay. Washington now likely has only one automatic win on the schedule meaning they will need to beat Stanford and hope they can defeat either ASU or WSU to get to a bowl. Oregon State on the other hand may have turned their year around and if they can win at Zona this week have likely gotten them-selves in position for a bowl game. Mike Riley just yet may save his hide. Same cannot be said for Mike Stoops if he loses this week to OSU. In other games Oregon faces their biggest challenge until the USC match-up. The Ducks usually have just enough to win in Pullman and I see that continuing. Washington will likely get crushed with a new QB on the road in Berkeley while I see UCLA just not having the horses to hang with USC. In the final game Stanford travels to Tempe and ASU will see their 3 game losing streak end post haste. In fact ASU could set themselves up for a nice win streak and end this year 9-3 which could get them to the Sun Bowl.

1. USC (1) – Again playing with fire, this team continues to win ugly with a ton of young players. Thankfully the schedule has been amazingly favorable and I think the bye week comes at a perfect time giving Troy 2 weeks to prepare for what could be a bad weather game against a resurgent Beaver team.
2. Cal (2) – Offense didn’t roll as much as many may have thought in Pullman but again it wasn’t needed as Cal’s defense shut down the Cougar attack. The Bears have to be licking their chops at the thought of playing UW in Strawberry Canyon without a green QB.
3. UO (3) – Oregon rebounded in a game that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard showed. The Ducks have some major worries with regards to special teams, short yardage running and defensive depth. In typical Oregon fashion the Ducks were great in their first 20 offensive plays scoring 3 first quarter TD’s then once the plays weren’t scripted the offense sputtered. This trend needs to be reversed to beat WSU and USC.
4. ASU (7) – The Devils mounted a valiant comeback on the road at USC but just like so many before them came up a bit short. Now that the Murderer’s Row schedule of ASU is over the Devils have a legit shot to win out the rest of the year and on paper they should. If Dirk Koetter wants to continue to be the coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils I highly recommend he win every game he should on paper in reality. Playing Stanford at home should help Rudy Carpenter regain his confidence.
5. UCLA (6) – I am not sure what to think of UCLA other than that they play some very boring football. Unfortunately they have to play their second straight road game, this time versus a rested Notre Dame squad. It could get ugly early if this one turns in to a track meet.
6. WSU (5) – I expected a bit more from the Cougars offense last week against Cal. The quad still looks like they are online for a bowl game and you know they would love to ruin Oregon’s year after the close escapes that the Ducks have had in the second home field in Pullman. Not sure if it is a good thing for Oregon that they get WSU at home next as they last time these two squads met in Eugene Bellotti was handed his worst loss ever.
7. OSU (8) – Nice win on the road that not many expected and they can easily make it 2 in a row this week in Tucson which would leave the Beavs in prime territory to sneak in to a bowl game. I think the Beavs are more comfortable on the road right now due to the hostile treatment the coaches and players are receiving from the “fans” of Beaver Nation.
8. UW (4) – Not sure I have ever dropped a school four places this late in the year but the Dawgs just lost their heart, offensive MVP and team leader last week in the loss to the Beavers. Losing Stanback will make UW one dimensional on offense and with the task of having to play road games in Berkeley, Eugene and Pullman the chances for a bowl game for the formerly Purple Helmets just got bleak.
9. UA (9) – That win over Stanford deserved a ticker tape parade, oh wait, maybe not. Arizona really needs to win every game they have a shot in to keep Stoops around next year. Kris Heavner has started for Arizona in the past with not much success and the Beavs seem to have regained some heart. I think Zona loses this one at home but it will be close. Do they have another Pac 10 win on the schedule?
10. Stanford (10) – No where to go but up from here, too bad they are going to be the punching bag that gets Rudy his groove back in Tempe this weekend.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Week Six Review and Pac 10 Power Poll



This week saw no changes in my power poll standings, I may need to check my records but I don’t think that has ever happened. Now I understand it is quite obvious that from viewing games this year Cal is at this point of the season a better team at this point than USC. However I made a pledge to keep USC at #1 until they lose and the Trojans did managed to escape the suddenly tough Washington schools with two close victories. Oregon appeared to have been listening to the media a tad much and got mauled down in Berkeley by a Cal team that still has to be kicking itself for the huge crap they took on themselves in Knoxville. The two coaches with the first name Mike in the Pac 10 both had stakes all but planted in their hearts taken losses in what have to be considered at least winnable games on paper. Expect changes at both schools next year and if Dirk Koetter can’t right the ship soon (a visit to USC isn’t going to do much to help that) he could be getting a pink slip too. I won’t totally discount the idea that Walt Harris could get canned as going 0-12 no matter the talent level is not acceptable especially when the school put up over 100 million for a new stadium. Bill Doba has done enough to stay at WSU another year, they should have enough to get to 6 or 7 wins and go bowling. This week the big game on the slate is the Oregon-UCLA tilt, UCLA has traditionally dominated Oregon at Autzen Stadium (the Ducks have only beat the Bruins twice in the history of the stadium) but with UCLA facing it’s first top 20 caliber team and without Ben Olson I see the Ducks coming back strong. Cal needs to not look past WSU who have quietly (like UCLA) put up a nice season. Stanford has it’s best shot at a win this week with the Mildcats in tow and while USC looks to get healthy versus an ASU Sun Devil team that has had two weeks to think about their devastating loses to Cal and Oregon. Finally Washington can get to five wins and all but end any chance of a winning record in Beaverland with a match-up in Seattle.

1. USC (1) – Haven’t really played a complete game since Arkansas. The defense has played well but isn’t forcing turnovers. If ASU was in a healthy state mentally I’d think they could beat the Trojans however healthy mental state and ASU Sun Devils are not two phrases that should be connected at this junction of the season. USC now has the chance to get a bit healthy before the schedule stiffens up.
2. Cal (2) – Cal flat out damaged Oregon, they outplayed Oregon in all aspects of the game and now just need to avoid a letdown at WSU. The Bears have to be considered the favorite now to win the Pac 10 championship however by the time they do play USC expect the Trojans to have regained some of their mojo.
3. UO (3) – The Cal game was over after the first play. Oregon must re-establish the running game and forget about the past week to get by always pesky UCLA. I was quite disappointed with some of the player antics seen on the field versus Cal. Without a doubt the worst performance by Oregon with Gary Crowton at OC.
4. UW (4) – The Huskies proved they are for real even in a loss at USC. No longer can anyone on the home or on the road look past the team in Purple. Please note this Oregon Ducks for your match-up with the Dawgs looms in a dangerous spot of the schedule sitting right before the big game versus USC.
5. WSU (5) – The Cougars beat everyone who they should, that should get them to a bowl game, however this week they face an amazing opportunity to get themselves in the Pac 10 race if they can beat Cal at home. I don’t think WSU has the horses to do it but watch out for Mkristo Bruce to attempt to take Nate Longshore out of his rhythm with some early heat.
6. UCLA (6) – UCLA has faced only one quality opponent this year in what has been the Pac 10’s easiest schedule. UCLA can’t get in a track meet with Oregon, to win this game the Bruins can’t give up more than 21 to the Ducks and I just don’t see that happening. UCLA faces 4 very tough games in the next 4 weeks, the easy slate of the schedule is over. They will need to win at least one of them to have a shot at getting to a bowl this year.
7. ASU (7) – Well ASU is at the crossroads. They need to show something against USC, a win is not needed to salvage this year but getting the passing game back and putting in some effort is a must. ASU could still easily recover and win 7 or 8 games this year as after the USC game they face all winnable games. I just have the feeling that ASU will throw in the towel and things could get very ugly in Tempe.
8. OSU (8) – More Beaver fans than normal seem to have taken up hunting. Oregon State might as well end the Matt Moore era and play for next year. Problem for Mike Riley is that he wants to continue having a job and needs to get some wins to save himself. Basically the mood in Corvallis is really getting ugly and I think that the coaches and players will actually be happy to have a road game up in Seattle. I don’t see the Beavers keeping this one within 10.
9. Arizona (9) – Arizona has no offense which makes it very hard to win games, that their D let down and let UCLA score 27 is a sign that Mike Stoops may have lost this team. If Coach Stoops loses to Stanford I could see him getting fired after the game. The Cats will be favored the next two weeks and then get a bye before they play up in Pullman. This is truly Mike Stoops last stand, look for him to be coaching somewhere on the Oklahoma defensive staff next year.
10. Stanford (10) – The Cardinal actually showed a bit of a pulse in South Bend. If they repeat that effort they will beat the Arizona Wildcats and give the New Stanford Stadium its first win.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Week 5 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll




Two weeks in to the regular conference schedule and already it appears as if the Pac 10 is a three tier league. Let’s call it the Good, the Decent and the Ugly. Many folks expected ASU to beta Oregon if not at least make it a shootout. Instead in the performance of the week not only in the conference but in the nations the Ducks dominated on both sides of the ball and all things considered 10 of the 13 points scored by ASU were due to the sloppy play of the injury depleted Ducks special teams. Unfortunately for Oregon, who with a healthy defense I would likely have as a Top 5 team nationally, they will face a great running team in the Cal Bears on the road this week. The winner of this game will likely find themselves in a BCS bowl and will have chance to win the Pac 10 with a win at USC later in the year. The loser is looking at the Holiday or Sun Bowl. In other action I have to give kudos to UW for beating Arizona on the road, WSU for hanging tough with a Jarrett-less USC and UCLA for what it is worth shutting out a Stanford team that would be struggling to compete in the Big Sky right now. Right now there is a lot of pressure on 4 coaches in this league with respect to their job security for 2007 (coaches Koetter, Stoops, Riley and even at this point I’d have to say Walt Harris) and if the WSU fade down the stretch I’d add Bill Doba to that list. What this means is that 2007 will a ton of new faces and if the rumors out there are true there could be possible returns to the Pac 10 of Dennis Erickson and Rick Neuheisel.

1. USC (1) – I will keep my vow to keep USC number one until they lose but the gap between them and Cal and Oregon is very small and USC will have trouble finishing this year with zero losses. In their favor they play much better at home than on the road and they just played their last losable road game outside of Los Angeles and escaped the pesky Cougars. USC will now get to see if Washington is for real. I don’t know if Stanback will be as effective against the quick USC defense as he has been against team likes Arizona and UCLA. I figure the Dawgs may keep the game close for a half and then get run in the second half.
2. Cal (2) – The Bears crushed the Beavers in Corvallis. The question this week will be if the Bears can stop the Oregon offense. If I am Cal I want to make sure I get the ball first and try to break off an early lead with a grinding drive that eats up 5+ minutes and attacks the Oregon D-Line. If the Ducks can turn this game in to a track meet and force Cal to play from behind they will likely win as the Longshore is more prone to making mistakes than Dixon at this point. The difference in the talent level between these two teams is minute and if the Ducks were playing with a full deck off cards on defense I would say Oregon would be the favorite.
3. UO (3) – Only injuries can stop the Ducks now. The offense is about as efficient as any in the nation right now and the defense is hard hitting and was all out dominant against an ASU team that had thrown on almost everyone in the last few years. The Ducks followed Cal’s game plan and crushed the confidence of Rudy Carpenter.
4. UW (5) – The Dawgs deserve a load of credit and can earn some more kudos for coach Ty if they can stay competitive versus the Trojans in Coliseum. Two more win and the Dawgs are bowl eligible. For that accomplishment the Pac 10 coach of the year award should be Willingham’s unless Mike Bellotti can take the Ducks to an undefeated season.
5. WSU (6) – The Cougars had a legit shot to beat USC but Steve Smith decided to pick Saturday to have the game of his life. I think WSU will win enough games to go to a minor bowl but the chance for a special season slipped away last Saturday night in Pullman.
6. UCLA (7) – Still not sure how good this team is as they have played a very easy schedule which continues this week with the Mildcats coming to town. UCLA still has to be kicking themselves for losing to Washington. UCLA needs to mix in a play-action on first down just like ex Bruins coach Bob Toledo needed to mix in a salad for dinner a few times a week. Defenses are completely keying on UCLA to go conservative. Martyball doesn’t work in the Pac 10 in the 2000’s. This weeks games looks like it will be a 6-3 thriller with two offenses that are about as exciting to watch as teams running the Wing-T formation in the 1930’s.
7. ASU (4) – Somewhere in a bar in Lincoln, Nebraska you have to believe that Sam Keller is enjoying a beer and a laugh at Dirk Koetter’s expense. ASU played about as bad a game I can imagine and lucked out in that the score was as close as it was. The Ducks tore away whatever confidence Rudy Carpenter had left. ASU needs to use the bye week to recover their Mojo or a losing season is in the cards and some rich ASU alum will be buying out Dirk’s five year contract extension
8. OSU (8) – Just like Dirk Koetter Mike Riley led teams seem to be unable to beat Top 25 schools. The last win for Mike Riley versus such a team was the 1998 defeat of the running-back depleted Oregon Ducks. Lots of the Beaver fans, at least though that attended the game in the sellout-less Bean Dip were calling for the fire of Riley. All that can probably save Mike Riley is a defeat of either USC or Oregon at home later this year. The Beavs play a possible coach elimination at the end of the year game this week versus the Cougars. Expect lots of Beaver fans to miss the game this week to go hunting.
9. UA (9) – A year filled with lots of promise has all but circled the drain for the Wildcats though a win at UCLA would put them back on track for bowl contention. Hopefully Bob Stoops needs an assistant coach next year.
10. Stanford (10) – That Stanford is bad this year does not shock me. The historical badness of this year’s Stanford team is what is shocking. What better than a trip to South Bend add to Stanford’s pain and suffering. Before this year I would have considered Walt Harris to be safe no matter what happened this year, now I am not so sure. The problem is that Stanford has only been competitive in one game this year and even that was to Division 1-A doormat San Jose State who likely gained a year or two reprieve from being shutdown as a program with the victory over the Trees. I think Stanford would have trouble finishing .500 in the Big Sky this year. That is Joe Avezanno/Jerri Pettibone bad.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 4 Review

Ducks Win!

This week we learned that Arizona has a tough defense but no offense, USC has a dominating defense but some questions on offense, the Huskies are 3-0 versus the State of California on what looks like a possible return to a bowl game this year, Cal and Nate Longshore are grasping the spread offense and ASU and Dirk Koetter still can’t figure out how to win a regular season game in the state of California. It was a pretty sub-par slate of games nationally this week and ASU-Cal match-up was one of only two battles between Top 25 schools in the country this week. This week will mark the first week of Pac 10 teams playing only each-other and the two remaining undefeated squads in the Pac 10 both face road tests. I know it is early to talk BCS but the worst news for the Pac 10 was Michigan State choking away a late lead to Notre Dame and unless there is a shocker out there (most likely candidates in this order are Air Force, UCLA and Navy) the Irish will be going 10-2 this year or 11-1 if they can beat USC and thus force snagging one of the BCS at-large bids, with the loser of the Louisville-West Virginia both likely to be ranked ahead of say a 1 loss Cal (who the media has written off due to the Tennessee game) or Oregon (who will get penalized through no fault of their own as already having one loss on their slate from the Oklahoma debacle) squad the Pac 10 is likely destined for only one team in the BCS unless the Pac 10 champion is not the USC Trojans. A possible undefeated season by TCU would throw a wrench in to this as well further hurting the Pac 10’s hope. The hope is now likely on UCLA and USC to defeat the Irish to keep the Pac 10 in line for one of the now 10 BCS bids.

Power Poll

1. USC (1) – The Trojans showed that they have some vulnerability to tough hitting defensive squads and the loss of Dwayne Jarrett takes away John David Booty’s security blanket. This USC squad probably is mentally tougher than last year’s who tended to coast a bit and the defense is quite improved. However the questions begs is how USC will fare against a tough hitting team that actually has an offense. Again to the Trojans favor they get to play Oregon and Cal in the Coliseum. The schedule gods love USC, they face a relatively under the radar WSU team in the Palouse who were crushed in Auburn but have rebounded against 3 bottom barrel I-A opponents in Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. Normally this could be a huge bear trap game for USC but they luck out and get to play WSU in the year that weather shouldn’t be a problem. I don’t think the Cougars defense is good enough to keep USC under 30 points and with the improvement of the USC defense this will be more than enough for the Trojans to get the win in what actually looks like it could USC’s hardest remaining road game.
2. Cal (3) – The Bears seem to be grasping the spread offense and I think have improved as much as any team in the country since week one. Their defense is starting to make plays and Longshore has avoided the mistakes that plagued him against the Vols. The Bears will face a hostile crowd in Corvallis but have much better athletes on each side of the ball to lose to the Beavers. Cal will hope to avoid any major injuries before a likely BCS elimination game with Oregon the following week.
3. UO (2) – Had to drop the Ducks not because of anything they did but because of the way Cal handled ASU. Oregon needs to avoid the mistake of previous Oregon teams of getting too confident after a big win. I think the bye week came at a perfect time and I hope that the players have put all the media attention of the Oklahoma game behind them. The question is whether ASU will have anything in the tank after the Cal game or if they are pulling their annual mid-season el-foldo after losing to a highly ranked opponent. Oregon has some major depth issues at the linebacker but will be buoyed a bit by the return of some guys in the defensive two-deep from injury and having a close to 100% Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson. I like the Ducks chances to defeat ASU before the big game in Berkeley in two weeks which will likely define both schools seasons.
4. ASU (3) – I thought ASU would be better able to throw on Cal then they did and the disappointing performance of ASU against Cal could send this season in to a tailspin. I think the fans and many of the players were just looking for a reason to give up hope and having Oregon come in after a bye week is bad news for Koetter and company. Hopefully for them Rudy Carpenter will have licked his wounds from all the shots he took from the Cal defense. I think the gap between the Top 3 of this conference is huge this year, ASU is the best of a mediocre bottom 7.
5. UW (7) – Hats off to Ty Willingham who has the Dawgs believing again. I actually saw people wearing UW hats on TV at the Seahawks game yesterday and even saw a chap in Safeway in Portland wearing one too. I am glad that the Purple Nation is again unafraid to support their team in public. I have to give the Dawgs major kudos for coming back from 17-0 to win 29-17 against UCLA. The Dawgs don’t have quit in them and face a winnable and likely very low scoring game in Tucson this week.
6. WSU (6) – The Cougs did what they needed to do and won in Stanford in what should have been a larger defeat than the score showed due to some offensive mistakes in the first half by the Cougars. A win over USC would be a defining moment and could put the Cougs on route to another magic season but I think hey lack the athletes that the 2002 team had who was the last team outside of Cal and Texas to beat USC.
7. UCLA (5) – I have yet to UCLA play this year so it is a bit hard to judge them but they suffered a huge second down let-down versus the Huskies. The Dawgs obviously made some excellent second half adjustments. UCLA should recover nicely with Stanford on the slate this week but looking back at the end of the year UCLA will circle the collapse against UW as perhaps their biggest lost opportunity. Since UCLA faces perhaps the toughest second half schedule in the country they couldn’t afford to let this one slip them by.
8. OSU (8) – The Beavers shout out a very bad Idaho after a bye week. I am not sure this shows much other than that Beavs didn’t make any major gaffes in this game. Mike Riley needs a defining win in his second tenure in Corvallis and hasn’t had one yet. It will not come this week with Cal in tow.
9. UA (9) – The good news is that U of A played good enough defense to beat USC and even forced two turnovers from a team that was +6 in that category going in to the game, the bad news is that Arizona’s offense looks like it has the team speed of a glacier and Willi Tuitama is going to end up being hurt at the rate he is taking abuse from blitzing defenses. Stoops needs to beat UW, that is not the kind of game he can afford to lose if he wants to do anything more than rejoin his whining brother Bob on the Oklahoma staff next year.
10. Stanford (10) – This Stanford team might go down as the worst Pac 10 team since the early 1980’s Beavers. Looks like 0-12 is the likely scenario though Tree fans can hold out hope for October and November home match-ups with the Beavers and Wildcats.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week Three Review

As predicted here the Pac 10 went 4-0 versus the Big 12 though the whole nation is up in arms regarding the Oregon-Oklahoma game. I lucked out and had seats at the 50-yard line. At the game folks didn’t know that the bad calls had occurred because reviewed plays aren’t often showed on the replay screen. After the game to a T every Oklahoma fan I talked to was gracious in defeat though they all seemed a bit stunned, their fans showed a lot of class at the stadium. The reaction since then has not been so classy particularly the actions of the OU President, but I can understand the anger of Sooner Nation, had the rolls been reversed I’d feel cheated too. As a Duck fan I am happy with the win but the outcome will be forever tainted but what is being forgotten is that Oklahoma had 3 or 4 chances to complete seal the win and failed. Unfortunately, humans make mistakes and this what happened with the officials in Eugene last weekend, there was no conspiracy afoot. This shouldn’t take anything away from the heart that the Oregon players showed on the field to come back and win and they never gave up when all looked to be lost. Looking to this week the slate is fairly dull outside of the key Cal-ASU game in Berkeley. The loser of this match-up will likely be out of the Pac 10 race in September.

1. USC (1) - USC didn’t put up as many points as I thought in this game but they are clearly a better team on the defensive side of the ball in 2006 compared to 2005 and John David Booty has played mistake free football. USC may lose this season but it certainly won’t be in Tucson Arizona this week.
2. UO (2) - Well Oregon certainly can’t complain about a lack of media attention any more. This is a great time for a bye-week. Hopefully the players and coaches will be focusing on the Arizona State Sun Devils rather than the thinking about what they have accomplished so far this year.
3. ASU (3) – Nice road win in Boulder, taking Rudy Carpenter’s record as a starter to 7-1. ASU can clearly throw the ball down the field which is something Cal is having major problems stopping. If ASU can sweep the next two games they could likely find themselves a Top 10 team.
4. Cal (4) – From all indications the Bears didn’t play well against 1-AA Portland State who by the end of the game was down to their third string quarterback. Cal is among the lowest ranked teams in the nation against the pass right now and playing ASU is not going to remedy that. I look for the Sun Devils to beat the Bears in Strawberry Canyon leading what will ultimately be a disappointing year in Berkeley.
5. UCLA (5) – Suddenly a game at Husky Stadium doesn’t look like an automatic win anymore. UCLA had two weeks to remedy a down performance against Rice so I think they will find a way to win in Seattle.
6. WSU (6) – A two-point win over Baylor is nothing to brag about but Baylor is an improved team. The Cougs are close to facing a major QB controversy but getting to play Stanford should allay that issue for a week. I think Alex Brink will get back on track and won’t have to hear any boo-birds while playing on the road.
7. UW (7) – They beat a tough Fresno team on a blocked extra-point which is a nice win for the Dawgs. Willingham has got his team believing but we shall see if the fans come along for the ride. UW faces a rested UCLA team that hasn’t faced much of a challenge this year so the results of this game should show who of these two schools are for real this year.
8. OSU (8) – Mike Riley cannot ill afford any type of slip-up to Dennis Erickson’s Vandals. Not much more needs to be said here.
9. U of A (9) – The Wildcats for their sake better hope they were looking ahead to USC. The Cats kept 1-AA Stephen F. Austin in the game for way too long and Stoops passing game seems very sub-par. Hosting the Trojans will be too big of a test for Arizona who will then need to lick their wounds and recover before they face some beatable Pac 10 teams in their quest for a job saving bowl for Mike Stoops.
10. Stanford (10) – Getting blown out by Navy at home is not a good thing. Now Stanford has lost their starting WR’s and starting halfback for the season. This Stanford team faces an excellent shot at going 0-11 and being the worst Pac 10 team since Joe Avezanno’s early 80’s OSU squads.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Pac 10 Power Poll & Week Two Review


Another week that saw some more Pac 10 teams getting roughed up on national TV providing more cannon fodder for the dreaded East Coast Media Bias argument. Well here are the positives, USC moves up to #2 in the country without playing a game, ensuring that provided they win out this year they will be playing the BCS championship in all likelihood provided the schedule gods don’t do them in. Winning all those games will be easier said than done especially with Notre Dame looking to actually be the good team many thought they would be based on the thrashing of Penn State. More positives were the Huskies showing a pulse by playing tough in Norman despite the loss as well as Cal and Oregon beating quality opponents. On the downside of-course were the performances of Arizona, Oregon State and Stanford who were either trashed on national TV (we are looking at you Beavers and Wildcats) or pulling a traditional el-foldo to your local rival that makes their season every few years by knocking you off in a game where you look down on them (Stanford this is you, the third time in the past 6 years they have lost to SJSU and let us not forget the whole UC-Davis fiasco of last year). This week the Pac 10 has a great opportunity to show the world that the Big 12 is in fact the little twelve. I predict that Oregon, USC, ASU and WSU will dispatch Oklahoma, Nebraska, CU and Baylor which should push the Pac 10 ahead of the Big 12 in terms of non-conference SOS (this likely won’t be the case when the year is over because of the 9 game Pac 10 schedule and the two additional teams the Big 12 has).

The poll:

  1. USC (1) – Great week for USC, Texas gets dispatched by Ohio State and the Trojans roll in to the 2 spot in the coaches poll while having a week off to prepare for the test of Nebraska who rolled up on Nicholls State. Nebraska is improving in the west coast offense but to win in the Coliseum is too much too ask for a young team going through such a sea-change in offensive systems.
  2. UO (2) - Great teams win tough games on the road that they are supposed to win. The Ducks avoided the WAC flu that took down Oregon State and Stanford and won a tough, hard-hitting game played in the hornets nest called Fresno. Kudos to Mike Bellotti and his special teams coach for having the stones to call that fake field goal option that sealed the win. Oregon lost Jackie Bates for likely the regular season to a broken leg. I don’t think his loss will hurt much against run-oriented Oklahoma but the loss will sting against the Pac 10 foes. Oregon could be having a very special season but the stakes and difficulty goes up this week. A healthy Jonathan Stewart is a must.
  3. ASU (6) - Our big gainer this week, they played very well offensively against Nevada, certainly the best game any of the 4 teams playing WAC foes. Colorado is reeling right now and ASU should be able to give them a death blow as to having any chances at pulling out a winning season in Dan Hawkins first year. Hawkins by the way was the chap who replaced Dirk Koetter at Boise State. ASU faces Cal in two weeks which in a sense will likely be a Rose Bowl elimination game.
  4. Cal (4) – Though their defense struggled early in the end Cal pummeled a quality Big 10 opponent in a national televised game. With a virtual bye week this week (well as long as Cal doesn’t pull a New Mexico) with Portland State in town the Bears have two weeks to prepare for the aerial attack of Arizona State which should prove to be a very entertaining match-up of former Oregon offensive coordinators turned Pac 10 head coaches.
  5. UCLA (3) – Didn’t see a lick of this game but based on the score I expected more from UCLA in facing a team coming off a 1-10 season in Rice. In UCLA’s defense Rice runs a form of the triple-option that UCLA has likely not faced in many years and it makes a hard transition to prepare in one week. They get a bye week to prepare for the improved Huskies in Seattle. To compete for the Pac 10 title they can’t afford losses to teams like Washington.
  6. WSU (8) – Rebounded from their licking by Auburn to whack Dennis Erickson’s Vandals who had played quite well the week before in their visit to East Lansing. The Cougars obviously can put up points and yards via the air, they need to be careful to not look past Baylor who has improved. A win here keeps the possibility for a bowl alive for the Cougars who should be able to win 4 Pac 10 games.
  7. UW (10) – Washington showed a great deal of character by hanging with Oklahoma for more than a half. In the end the Huskies just don’t have the guys on the lines to beat a team like Oklahoma. They face an interesting match-up with Fresno State this week. Fresno will look to run the ball with Dwayne Wright and they did with some success against Oregon. In the end I think Fresno will win this game but the Huskies are certainly improved from last year.
  8. OSU (5) - After getting spotted a 14-0 lead the Beavs basically repeated their performance of their last trip to Boise and after a dumb interception led to a Bronco touchdown the Beavs basically gave up. In a twist of irong Dennis Erickson will be coming to town. Due to the fact that a vast majority of Beaver fans likely want Dennis Erickson to be coaching the Beavers next year you wonder if some are secretly hoping for a loss by the Beavs to that other team from the Potato State. This looks like a very long year in Corvallis and the Matt Moore should be ending soon.
  9. UA (7) – Hey Herbstreit nice call on Tuitama being a Top 5 QB. Arizona got run in Baton Rogue in a game that I thought they should be able to keep with in 14 points. Good thing for Stoops that he pulled out that win against BYU, with Stephen F. Austin coming to town the Cats have a virtual bye week before they take on USC in two weeks. I think Stoops seat is getting a bit warm.
  10. Stanford (10) – Again Stanford overlooked a local rival that can make their year by beating them. I give credit to Stanford for continuing to play San Jose State but I believe this is the third time they have lost to San Jose State since 1999. Preparing for Navy will be a tough game for the Trees. Due to the fact that they must play at Notre Dame this year the Navy game is a must win if they hope to have any chance at sniffing a bowl.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Pac 10 Power Poll and a review of Week One


In the eyes of the media the Pac 10’s performance was a failure and this can mainly be blamed on the Cal Bears and their ineffective QB play and defensive letdown. Though there is no shame in losing in Neyland Stadium the Bears look like they have fallen in to the trap where they will have problems beating teams that can keep Lynch and Forsett from running at will. As for the other two match-ups in the PAC10/SEC 3-fer WSU was not surprisingly outclassed by Auburn though I thought the Cougars would do a better job defensively against Auburn. USC showed that they still can dominate teams and the drop-off that some predicted may not occur there. Looking forward to this week there are some nice non-conference games out there that should pique interest but do to some of the match-ups the Pac 10 could take some more national hits. In addition there are 5 match-ups versus WAC teams looking to make some noise out west. Here is this week’s power poll:

  1. USC (1) Playing at Arkansas is no easy task they play very tough at home as many an SEC foe can attest too. However USC continued to roll and answered the critics. They know have two weeks to prepare for Nebraska though having a bye week so early in the season is not helpful for the Trojans. I think Nebraska is a tough match-up but the two weeks off and home cooking should led USC to a solid win in two weeks. Barring some major injuries and suspensions USC will be out top squad next week as they can’t lose to that team called BYE.
  2. UO (4) The Oregon Ducks answered all the questions that the media have of them and more after pounding Stanford at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks played with confidence ran the ball effectively and didn’t make too many mistakes for the first game of the season. They will face a tougher test on the ground from Fresno State as well as playing in a very hostile environment with WAC refs so those factors should make this game close. In the Oregon seems to have just enough to beat Fresno every year and I see that continuing as long as the Ducks avoid interceptions. A win versus the Bulldogs could likely vault Oregon close to 10th in the nation by the time they play a shaky Oklahoma team in Autzen Stadium.
  3. UCLA (5) Utah was expected to give UCLA a hard test but Ben Olson performed well and the Bruins cruised to a victory. With an easy match-up at home this week versus Rice I expect UCLA to quietly move up the national polls and will likely still be undefeated when they play Oregon on October 21st due to getting to open the Pac 10 with games versus Washington, Stanford and Arizona (who by the way beat UCLA last year knocking the Bruins out of any chance at BCS bowl). The Ducks could either be reeling at this point or could be ranked in the Top 5 in the country.
  4. Cal (2) There is no shame in losing to Tennessee but I think the Bears may have been listening too much to their press clippings. They need to get past last week’s performance and focus on getting consistent QB play as teams will be daring Cal to throw the ball down the field until the two-headed Longshore-Ayoob monster can get their footing.
  5. OSU (6) They get to jump ASU because they played better against their Big-Sky opponent than ASU did. They face a tough test on Thursday night in Boise against an experienced 5th year senior QB in Hermiston’s own Jared Zabransky. The Beavs need a better showing than the last time they ventured on the blue turf.
  6. ASU (3) A big drop for ASU even after a win because they frankly struggled with Northern Arizona and I feel there is lingering team chemistry issues which may bubble to the surface. If ASU plays the same way against Nevada as they did against NAU they will likely lose. Koetter needs to get things on track before league play starts. He will face a likely very angry and possibly 0-2 Colorado Buffalo squad in two weeks in Boulder.
  7. Arizona (8) They won an ugly game versus BYU but the important thing is they won it and this means that they likely will only need 4 Pac 10 wins to go to a bowl if they can hold off Stephen F. Austin. I expect U of A to get run down in Baton Rogue but their defense may keep the score closer than WSU and Cal did against their SEC foes.
  8. WSU (7) I didn’t get a chance to see many highlights of this game but the Cougars were clearly outclassed by Auburn. To keep bowl hopes alive WSU needs to beat Idaho and Baylor, though both are perennial bad teams both teams played tough ball in their openers against good competition so the Cougars better not be overconfident or they could force them selves in to having to win 5 Pac 10 games to go to a bowl.
  9. Stanford (9) The Cardinals looked outclassed in every aspect of the game against a much faster Oregon team. Stanford as always is a much better team on grass where their speed issues are less exposed. They can’t look past San Jose State who is a pesky squad who has knocked off the Cardinal in the past.
  10. UW (10) Well they were tested again by San Jose State. Next the Huskies will get to venture in to the not so friendly confines of Norman Oklahoma before facing what could be a 2-0 Fresno State team in the Top 25. Things don’t look good on the schedule for Washington this year. I heard talk out of Montlake that this could be a 6 or 7 win team but I never bought in to such talk.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Pre-season Power Poll

Pac 10 Team Capsules and Power Poll - The first year of round robin conference play should be interesting and it will likely mean the end of any Pac 10 school getting in to the BCS championship game with one loss (which by the way has never happened anyhow though Oregon, UW and USC have come close only to be denied by computers). Not only is the Pac 10 hurt by having only 10 teams meaning fewer OOC games which tend to be won by major conferences who schedule down (please see the SEC and Big 12 for examples) but the addition of the 9th conference game will also mean 5 more losses for the league while the other major conferences are feeding up on extra games with 1-AA schools, the Sun Belt and MAC. The Pac 10 champ will have truly earned their championship on the field.

Team Capsules for 2006

Arizona Wildcats (3 wins 4 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Stoops has cleansed himself of the Mackovic era and at least on paper has recruited well in particular on the defensive side of the ball. The team plays with a lot of toughness in what is considered often by the national media to be a “soft” or “finesse” league, whether that assumption is fair or not. What I don’t like: Mike Stoops’ sideline antics, we get it, he is hard nosed but it gets to the point of being embarrassing, how long will it be until the players tune him out? Bottom line: Willy Tuitama gained some experience late last year and that will help him this season but true sophomore QB’s rarely lead their schools to successful Pac 10 seasons. Arizona could have enough to make it to a bowl game if they can recover from their early season whipping in Baton Rouge, a step back to 4-8 or worse and they just may decide to go another direction coaching wise. Key game: October 21st in Tucson versus Oregon State. A win here and Arizona could be bowl eligible for the first time since 1999.

Arizona State Sun Devils (7 wins 0 losses 5 tossups) What I like: Great offensive system which really seemed to gel around Rudy Carpenter after Sam Keller went down though both QB’s were among the top rated in the nation. What I don’t like: Dirk Koetter has not handled the Keller/Carpenter quarterback controversy well, ASU can’t afford an injury to Carpenter or the season could go down in flames. He may be the single most important player to his team in the entire conference with Sam Keller off to Nebraska. Bottom line: ASU in the last 30 years has typically lacked the heart and character to take the step up to consistently compete for Pac 10 titles (exception Jake Plummer) and has managed to underachieve despite all the built in advantages they have due to location (nice weather & facilities, beautiful coeds, major metropolitan area, proximity to Texas and California for recruiting). I expect another decent but in the end unfulfilling season for Koetter but with his contract being extended by his new AD he is safe job security wise. Key game: September 30th in Tempe versus Oregon. Oregon could be a Top 10 team at this point if they can beat Fresno State and Oklahoma and Arizona State faces a likely loss to Cal the week before, whoever loses this game could be knocked out of the Rose Bowl race unless they can win road games at USC or Cal.

Cal Bears (7 wins 0 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Great running game and depth with Marshuan Lynch and Justin Forsett. The enthusiasm that Jeff Tedford has brought to what had been a morbid program since Bruce Snyder had left. They seem to be the only program in the Pac 10 that has been able to consistently stay in games with USC during the Pete Carroll era. What I don’t like Not much other than questions at quarterback, had Aaron Rodgers stayed for his senior season Cal may have been playing Texas instead of USC in the Rose Bowl last year. Tim Mixon may have been the Pac 10’s top returning cornerback and was a special teams stalwart, losing him to an ACL tear for the season is a blow. Bottom line: The Bears are the most likely school to beat USC in LA and if that occurs, the Pac 10 title could be Cal’s for the first time since the 1950’s. Key game: November 18th in Los Angeles versus USC. This game could be for the Pac 10 title and could pin USC with their first Pac 10 home loss since 2001. Probably fair to say that at least on paper this could be the most significant game played by the California Bears in the modern era if both schools are still at the top of the Pac 10 standings in mid-November.

Oregon Ducks ( 4 Wins, 1 loss, 7 tossups) What I like: A second year in the spread should see Oregon’s offense excel to new heights. There seems to have been an injection of enthusiasm and excitement in Mike Bellotti’s decision to bring in Gary Crowton after Andy Ludwig left for Utah. What I don’t like: Having to replace Haloti Ngata, Anthony Trucks and the starting CB’s from the Pac 10’s top rated defense (quite a rarity in Eugene for that to happen) Bottom line: Oregon arguably has the nation’s toughest schedule and a stumble at Fresno State could start a tailspin that leads to a disappointing around .500 year for Oregon. They may well be a better team than last years 10-2 squad ( Oregon’s best win in 2005 was over California) but the record may not show it. Oregon is primed for a national championship run in 2007 and a nice 9 or 10 win season in 2006 should propel them high enough in the initial 2007 polls for that to become a possibility on paper. Key game: September 16th in Eugene versus Oklahoma. Oregon needs to show the nation that they can handle a tough, physical nationally recognized power. A win here sets up Oregon nicely for the Pac 10 season as well as keeps them on the national radar for 2007 when they should have their best chance at a national run since Joey Harrington and company’s 2nd place national finish in 2001 after a Fiesta Bowl victory over Colorado.

Oregon State Beavers ( 3 wins 1 loss 9 tossups) What I like: The Beavers return their entire offensive line and have a senior quarterback, All-American candidate Tight-end in Joe Newton, along with a kind home schedule in conference play. What I don’t like: Inexperience at wide-out and the lack of future NFL quality players on the roster. Player discipline has been an issue for the last few seasons Bottom line: The Beavers get Oregon, Cal and USC all at home in what has become one of the tougher places to play on the west coast. While the Beavers will not likely compete for a Pac 10 title they will play a great role in deciding who does. I don’t think the Beavers have a 2000 type run in them because I think they lack the athletes at DE and WR that the 2000 squad had. They could certainly end up with a nice 8-9 win season, which in Corvallis, is quite the accomplishment and should take the heat off of Riley who has faced a great deal of player conduct issues in the past few seasons. When it comes down to it this may be the hardest team of 2006 to predict how they will finish. Oregon State could finish anywhere between 3rd and 8th in the conference and it would not surprise me. Key game: Friday November 24th in Corvallis versus Oregon. If Oregon State has a losing record going in to the Civil War he will be facing some major heat from the fan base and media for not living up to glory that the 2000 season brought to Oregon State fans under Dennis Erickson. That great season and a new stadium upgrade have led to higher expectations in Corvallis. Oregon State has not lost a home game to Oregon since 1996 and a loss here could really tighten the noose around Riley’s neck.

Stanford Cardinal (1 win 6 loses 5 tossups) What I like: The Trees have a sparkling new stadium which should help transform Palo Alto Saturdays in to a rollicking environment albeit with a wine and cheese crowd with the elimination of the track and 40,000 fewer seats. Stanford could easily go from having the worst football game day environment in the conference to one of the best in just one season due the stadium transformation. In addition Stanford played very tough on the road last year losing only at USC. What I don’t like: Stanford was pretty bi-polar last year, playing tough games with USC and Notre Dame and beating Arizona State but doing the unthinkable and losing to Cal State Davis which ultimately cost them the chance to play in a bowl game. The loss of standout LB Michael Okwo in fall training camp will cause Stanford to play this year without its best returning defender on what was already a very green unit. Bottom line: A step backward may led to two steps forward, too much was lost on the defensive side of the ball from 2005 to have much of a shot for a winning campaign so Harris will have to play a lot young players. The new stadium should certainly help in giving Stanford a home field advantage for the first ever. Key game: Saturday September 23rd in Palo Alto versus Washington State. In a very winnable home game Stanford will first showcase its new stadium in a conference game. A winning season is unlikely but a opening home win will be a nice showcase for Walt Harris as he tries to build his program down on The Farm.

UCLA Bruins (6 wins 3 loses 3 tossups) What I like: Karl Dorrell had a very nice season in 2005 and made some in-roads in bridging some of the game between UCLA and USC in recruiting (not by bringing USC down but by bringing UCLA up the rankings) What I don’t like: Not many QB’s have been very successful after being away from the game for a mission like Ben Olson took no matter how much natural talent they have, too much talent was lost on defense and losing Maurice Jones-Drew to the NFL was an unexpected shock that stings UCLA. Bottom line: UCLA will regress back to the 7-8 win plateau that has been the norm most of the last decade, they have some excellent athletes all over the field but will likely not win as many close games with the departure of last year’s senior QB Drew Olson being Captain Comeback in leading UCLA to a handful of comeback wins. Key game: October 21st in South Bend versus Notre Dame. UCLA has been off the national radar since 1998 and having becoming an absolute second banana in Los Angeles to the Trojans has put UCLA in the odd position of being a relatively unknown program in a huge media market that has increasingly become looked at nationally as irrelevant. What better way to regain national traction by knocking off a highly ranked (and defensively shaky) Notre Dame team with a senior QB on a Heisman run.

USC Trojans (8 wins 0 losses 4 tossups) What I like: The improvement that will be seen on USC’s defense and the continued stellar recruiting classes of Pete Carroll should keep them in contention for the national and league title for the foreseeable future. Getting to face their likely two toughest Pac 10 tests at Memorial Coliseum in Oregon and Cal. What I don’t like: It is almost impossible to sustain the hits they have taking in losing players to the NFL draft and injuries over the last few years. Depending on true freshman tailbacks to replace Reggie Bush and Lendale White will likely lead to a less balanced offense. Bottom line: Carroll has recruited amazingly well but all schools are pulled back to earth and I expect USC to drop at least one league game in 2006. Key game: December 3rd versus Notre a rematch of last year's classic could be a matchup of #1 versus #2 if everything falls in place

Washington Huskies (1 win 7 losses 4 tossups) What I like: Ty Willingham is a class act and I heard he is good at karaoke! Tailgating on those boats sure is fine and the view of the water and Mt Rainer sure are pretty. The Huskies have recruited fairly well in state the last few years What I don’t like: A lot to not like especially on offense with injuries, losses to graduation and low-talent level QB’s likely leading to Washington being in the position to have their defense needing to step up big for them to have any chance of success in a offensive favored conference. Washington was really once one of the nation’s best programs and their stadium inspired fear. Now Husky Stadium is a shell of itself and people realize that the while the view of the surrounding area sure is nice the view of the field is horrible because of the track. They Huskies had to hire a by-the-books guy like Willingham after all the shenanigans of the Rick Neuheisel era but whether the Tyee club has patience for his rebuilding program will be another story. If Washington can eek out 6 wins then Ty Willingham deserves Pac 10 coach of the year. Losing James Hasty to academics will prove painful. Key game: November 18th in Pullman versus Washington State. In what will likely be a painful season in Seattle the Huskies could put a severe hurt to Bill Doba’s job security and make a statement that they are again the state’s best program to recruits with a win in the Apple Cup. Interestingly enough this is the only rivalry game that will be played on the traditional Rivalry Week Saturday in the conference. All 4 other in-state rivalry games have been moved back to later in the season with the addition of the 12th game.

Washington State Cougars (2 wins 4 losses 6 tossups) What I like: There are some eerie similarities between the 1996 and 2005 WSU seasons. When everyone has counted out WSU they tend to have a great season as happened in 1997 and 2001. Lots of close loses, young talent & low expectations could get the Cougars in to the top half of the conference if they can win all the games they should win and steal a few they shouldn’t. Jason Hill may end up an All-American at WR if Ben Brink can get him the ball enough. What I don’t like: Bill Doba’s teams have had trouble winning close games, the question is whether they are almost there as a team primed for a breakout season or whether they were over-achieving to make those games close. A big question is whether the new running backs from the JUCO level can step in and replace Jerome Harrison who really helped WSU in having a balanced offensive attack last season Bottom line: In a best case scenario WSU can go out and win 8 games which is really what they should have won last year if they could have closed out games, the only game they really didn’t have a good chance of winning in 2005 was their game versus USC. The Cougars should beat a couple of good teams at home this year and have an excellent shot at going to a minor bowl if they can cut down on mistakes on offense. Key game: October 21st versus Oregon. The Cougars can’t continue to fumble away winnable games to the Ducks if they hope to go back to the form they showed in 2001 to 2003. Oregon could either be flying or reeling at this point at the Cougars need to pounce on the Ducks and not let another close loss occur on the Palouse to the Ducks.

Pre-season Pac 10 Power Poll

  1. USC – Until someone can beat them in conference I really can’t take them off the top of this list. It took the huge stones of Vince Young, arrogant and cockiness on field play by USC players and some questionable coaching by Pete Carroll to keep USC from being a Three-peat national champion.
  2. California – The most likely team to knock USC out of its perch atop the Pac 10. If they can take car of business in Tennessee they well could be primed for a national run and will have the out of conference resume to prove it. The big question is whether they have the QB play to win close conference games down the stretch.
  3. Arizona State – It was hard for me to decide between Oregon and Arizona State. As of right now I think they have fewer question marks than the Ducks do but the team is a Rudy Carpenter injury away from disaster.
  4. Oregon – The Ducks have a brutal schedule. Though they may end up being a more complete team than the 2005 version it will be tough to match the record. They are one year away from the possibility of putting together a 2001 like run to the Pac 10 title together.
  5. UCLA Bruins – If Ben Olson shakes off the rust and UCLA can find a playmaker at running back to step in for Maurice Drew they should be able to get back to a bowl game. The defense is green and last year wasn’t really that great anyhow. UCLA gutted out a lot of close wins last year and maybe lady luck will be against them in 2006.
  6. Oregon State – I have to place OSU in the middle of the pack. They could finish anywhere between 3rd and 8th in this league, I like the running game and senior leadership but I question the overall talent level.
  7. WSU – They have the playmakers at WR to have a huge year offensively but Ben Brink needs to cut his mistakes down for the Cougars to win the close games they lost last year.
  8. Arizona – This is the year the Mike Stoops needs to put it all together. They are a chic pick around the country to have a breakout year, I don’t see it.
  9. Stanford – Having a senior QB is a traditionally a harbinger for winning in this conference and only Oregon State, Washington and Stanford will be starting them as the season starts. However, I just see too many holes on this team defensively for them to have a winning season and I doubt they will be able to steal 3 road wins again like they did in 2005.
  10. Washington – I don’t see a lot of upside here for Washington. They could win as few as one game this year but more likely I see a 3 or 4 win season if they can play tough at home. The loss of James Hasty to academics was quite a blow for a school that hasn’t had a 1000 yard rusher since 1997.