State of the Program: Pac 10
On field success is probably the largest factor in to defining what a program is but the definition has to encompass more than just that. Analyzing a program has to include other factors such as national recognition, stability, facilities, revenue and coaching which doesn’t automatically correlate with the win/loss record of the last season. Certain schools have built in geographical and historical advantages that should make them a powerful program (USC, UCLA, UW) while others face the issue of not being in recruiting hotbed or large media markets (UO, OSU, WSU). A strong program now gives schools hope for future success but is no guarantee of and schools that do not constantly evolve in terms of marketing, compliance and facilities have programs that can stagnate with Washington being the current example and USC being another in the Paul Hackett era. Here is my attempt to rank the programs as of 2009 in the Pac 10 Conference.
1. USC – How they got to be #1: The Trojans are among a select number of schools that can be considered Top Tier programs nationally with schools such as Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State. These are schools that consistently compete for national championships, generate large amounts of revenue and garner a great deal of attention from the national media and from prospective recruits. Pete Carroll’s enthusiasm, leadership and ability to relate to the modern college athlete quickly turned around a program that during the 80’s and 90’s had fallen from a dominant force in college football to one that was inconsistent and full of under-achieving prima donna players, clueless coaches and apathetic fans. USC has always been in a position to recruit pretty much the best athletes from the LA area but under Carroll they have been able to pluck athletes from all over the country. The success under Carroll has led to USC being able to sell large numbers of tickets and merchandise which drives revenue and the success of the football team has benefitted the entire athletic department and school in general. Why they will stay #1: Pete Carroll and the location in the LA area should guarantee success in the short term. Kids who are being recruited now don’t remember a time when USC wasn’t a favorite to compete for a national championship every year. How they could slip in the future: Losing Pete Carroll would be the obvious reason but there are some other secondary issues. One is that no one in American sports aside from Tiger Woods seems to stay on top forever and the success of USC has driven the rest of the schools in the conference to try even harder to emulate their success. Issue number two is the state of the LA Coliseum, a building though very large, doesn’t produce the amount of revenue that a modernized building owned by the university would bring the program. The final issue is whether there end up being long term sanctions regarding Reggie Bush and the rent scandal that put the hammer down on USC ala what happened to Washington in the early 90’s My personal opinion is that the NCAA will never punish a major program these days as hard a Washington was punished (no TV games, postseason ban) but a reduction in scholarships could hurt the depth at USC and allow a team such as UO or UCLA to make the Pac 10 a conference where USC isn’t automatically the favorite every year. How they could rise in the future: Have better decision making in close games and rectify the stadium issue to one that is more profitable for the Trojans.
2. UO – How they got to be #2: Oregon, more-so than probably any program in the country figured out in the late 80’s that college football had become a big business and has taken that strategy to heights that few people would have expected. From the time that the Ducks took the unprecedented step to add luxury suites to Autzen Stadium back in the late 80’s the Ducks have seen their success level rise on the field and the level of national media attention garnered towards them increase as well. The stability of the Bellotti reign and the money and marketing relationship with Phil Knight and Nike has put Oregon at the forefront of innovation in the sport both on and off the field. Though the program has made some missteps over the years (Robo-duck, Andy Ludwig, Rich Stubler, Duck Dome idea) the school has more often than made what at the time seemed a controversial decision pay off in the end (Chip Kelly, the expansion of Autzen, the Moshofsky Center, Pat Killkenny as AD). Why they will stay #2: The Ducks have done such a good job of branding themselves as innovators through the Nike relationship, the scheme of Chip Kelly and out of the box thinking that any high school kid who is being recruited around the nation knows who Oregon is now and sees them as a legitimate destination program not a safety school when no other option is available. That Oregon is now a national recruiter is a testament that the branding effort has worked. Though many people find the constant change of Oregon uniforms and the whole billboard thing tacky it has captured the attention of recruits and the media. Better to have them talking about you than not at all and Oregon in the times before the BCS began was an afterthought. How they could slip in the future: The Chip Kelly/Mike Bellotti transition is a complete failure and Oregon’s vaunted stability goes away. There is a fallout between Phil Knight, Nike and Oregon. The economic downturn decreases donations to the program and the Ducks are not able to continue the branding process at the level they have been accustomed to and the Ducks slip back to being that unknown program in a far corner of the country. Oregon’s spread option is solved by opposing d-coordinators and the teams slip in to mediocrity. There is a seismic shift in the tastes and culture of American youth that shifts from what is flashy, new and innovative to a more traditional mindset. How they could rise in the future: Fully taking advantage of the momentum they have from the last two seasons and putting it all together for a national championship run under Kelly that sends a shot across USC’s bow that shows the Pac 10 is going to be up for grabs every year. Keep finishing seasons off like they did in 2008 rather than the typical November fade.
3. OSU – How they got to be #3: By consistently making it to and winning bowl games. Raising Reser to the status of a viable but college stadium from the glorified high school field that it was. Neither of these events nor the Dennis Erickson lead Fiesta Bowl would have happened without the steady hand of Mike Riley’s leadership and an athletic department that rode in on the coat-tails of their Eugene neighbor’s success but instead of becoming the sports version of a tech company they built their program on community and family values. Oregon State under Riley has understood that they need to search deep and wide for players who may not fit the prototypical mold of a college athlete and to mold these recruits in to winners. Riley has taken these kids who play with a chip on their shoulder and gotten them to improve greatly during the seasons and his teams always seem to overcome adversity to finish strong and always with character. That Oregon State has become this after 30 years in the desert is truly amazing. Why they will stay #3: Mike Riley has built a family-centric program that appeals to parents and recruits and Oregon State has upgraded their facilities. The Beavers have taken advantage of playing on ESPN on Thursday night and this had to led to an increase in their national exposure. The back to back home wins versus USC and competing for the 2008 Pac 10 title has shown the program that anything is possible. How they could slip in the future: A few down years could cause Riley to be forced out which would be a huge error or Riley could decide to take a final big payday at another school or the NFL again, doubtful but always possible. The state of the economy could diminish attendance, donations and increase debt and this could stop the improvement in facilities that has occurred in the last five year. With the continued use of the spread nationally Oregon State’s pro-set offense becomes passé and the coaching staff is unable to adapt or teach incoming recruits how to achieve success in it. How they could rise in the future: Play as well as they do in September as they do in November. Riley’s teams have suffered some terrible early season performances, had they not blown the opener versus Stanford last year they would have clinched a Rose Bowl berth before the Civil War was even played. Oregon State should also work to modernize their marketing efforts which look years behind Oregon’s.
4. Cal – How they got to be #4: In the Tom Holmoe era Cal was a hopeless program that was among the worst in all of the BCS conferences. The arrival of Jeff Tedford quickly changed fortunes in Berkeley and Cal quickly became a perennial bowl team. Tedford has the second best record in the Pac 10 since his arrival and had a 4-2 record versus Mike Bellotti. Tedford has gotten the students and alumni to care about Cal football again and has pushed for the modernization of the decaying Memorial Coliseum. Why they will stay #4: Tedford has built a consistent winner and should be able to stay at the school as long as he wants to be there. If the long awaited facility improvements finally are completed Cal will no longer have the issue of being negatively recruited by other teams based on their facilities and this should make it harder for schools like Oregon to poach players out of the Bay Area from the Bears. How they could slip in the future: The facility upgrades get further delayed and this causes Tedford to bolt. Tedford can’t decide on an offense and flounders at both the pro-set and spread variants he has been using. Cal, pretty much on a permanent short leash due to probation violations in the past is caught in some type of NCAA problems and gets sanctions from the NCAA and Pac 10. How they could rise in the future: Get it built! Probably more importantly Jeff Tedford needs to get his team to better respond to adversity. Cal has had a bad habit of letting a bad loss kill their season.
5. Stanford – How they got to be #5: This one is based on potential and a commitment to football from the administration that was clearly lacking before Jim Harbaugh came on the scene. Transforming the stadium from what was an aging over-sized stadium to a much more manageable sized stadium with top of the line facilities has eliminated the perceived facilities gap. The win over USC showed the rest of the Pac 10 that anyone could compete against USC and Harbaugh has the belief that national championships can be won at Stanford. You have to dream big to accomplish greatness. Previous Stanford regimes were happy to beat Cal ever other year and maybe get to a bowl every 4 years or so. Harbaugh has yet to get to a bowl but he has set the table for future success. Why they will stay #5: Harbaugh has instilled a winning attitude and a culture of winning has always been what has defined Stanford as an institution no reason that can’t be extended to the gridiron. Stanford has seemingly endless amounts of money in their endowment so if the school commits to facilities they can give the football program anything it wants. The promise of a quality education in a nice area on a beautiful campus will always be a huge factor for recruits who have the academic standing to get in to the school. How they could slip in the future: Harbaugh could decide to leave. Even if he stays he could have problems keeping quality assistant coaches due to the high cost of living expenses in Palo Alto if the university doesn’t kick in higher pay for assistants. The pool of players Stanford can actually recruit and sign is diminished by rising fortunes at schools they compete with nationally on the recruiting trail such as Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt. How they could rise in the future: Put together a program that competes for bowl berths every year and makes a run at the Pac 10 title in the next three seasons.
6. ASU – How they got to be #6: Perennial underachievers who based on geography and campus life should always be a top program in the Pac 10. Dennis Erickson took a large step back in his second year at Arizona State losing 6 games in a row at one point and not making a bowl game. That Arizona State has only won 2 Pac 10 titles since joining the conference is a bit surprising considering the size of the institution and fertile recruiting ground with traditional success raiding both Texas and California for top athletes. Why they will stay #6: Arizona State could continue to go along in the manner they traditionally have and that is being a team with a lot of great individual players that have trouble coming together and putting up championship contending teams. Arizona State very often has been ranked in the Top 25 to start a season yet ends up finishing right around .500 and in a lower tiered bowl game. How they could slip in the future: It would be hard for me to see this program be much worse than it was last year but a couple of things could cause a further slip. One is that the game might have passed Dennis Erickson on. Players could continue to fall in to the trap of having the party life that is the ASU campus sap their drive and desire to perform on the gridiron. The amount of distractions in a place like Tempe is enormous compared to sleepy burgs like Pullman and Corvallis and this could led to more off the field distractions that keeps the program not focused on doing what is needed to garner success. How they could rise in the future: Dennis Erickson could find lighting in a bottle with the JC recruits he has signed in the past two years but for long term stability in the program I think that ASU needs to take greater care in recruiting high character student athletes.
7. UCLA – How they got to be #7: The biggest factor in UCLA’s fall from grace has probably been the rise of USC under Pete Carroll. The Bruins still are able to roll up highly ranked recruiting classes every year but seemed to have problems with depth at certain positions mainly quarterback which is the biggest reason UCLA didn’t achieve what Rick Neuhiesal might have hoped for last year. The Rose Bowl, though a great venue, is not on campus and I believe this leads to the student body not having much of a vested in the program. This in turn leads to alumni who don’t have much interest in the program. Having attended some games at UCLA both when UCLA was competing for Pac 10 titles and when they were an also ran I can tell you that it appears that most of the fans don’t have a connection to the university. Many just want to watch a winning football team play on the field and fans like that don’t give the long time support in years you get from students and alumni. An on campus stadium would do wonders for getting the student body involved with football but I am not sure of the logistically possibilities of this ever happening. Why they will stay #6: I highly doubt they do. Rick Neuhiesal will be able to get a better quarterback situation in place for the future and he has shown at both Washington and Colorado that he can put a winner on the field. They should be back in a bowl in 2009 and for the foreseeable future after that. How they could slip in the future: With all the built in advantages of being a large LA based university it would be hard to imagine things getting much worse for the UCLA program than it was in 2008. They could slip in a couple of ways however. One is that Neuhiesal slips back in to his “Slick Rick” mode and gets nailed by the NCAA for something and UCLA get sanctioned, another could be a breakdown in the deal between the Rose Bowl and UCLA that forces the Bruins to have to do something like playing home games at the Coliseum again where they would always be second class citizens. Finally the disaster that is the California education funding could force the school in to slashing funds for the program How they could rise in the future: Neuheisal should be able to recruit quite well and has always done a good job of developing quarterbacks, UCLA will likely never become what USC is now but there is no reason they can’t become a program that is in contention for Rose Bowls every other year or so. The foundation is there.
8. U of A - How they got to be #8: Arizona is coming off of its best season since Dick Tomey was coach, that is certainly a positive and at least according to the ranking services Mike Stoops has done a pretty good job getting recruits to commit to Tucson. The results under Stoops have not been great though are an improvement over the Mackovic regime. Arizona’s problem is two-fold. First issue is that they are primarily a basketball school, perhaps more so than any other school in the conference (Stanford and UCLA perhaps) Arizona has been defined by their basketball program and football has been a second thought. A root cause for the decay that has been seen in the 2000’s for Arizona football likely was poor idea of firing the very stable and respected Dick Tomey who consistently had Arizona in the top half of the conference for the snake-oil salesman that is John Mackovic. Mackovic tried to the instill a culture that was more West Point or Texas A&M to a campus that is definitely got more of a laid back party/hippie vibe going on. Mackovic forced his players to have short hair cuts and lose the earrings under the guise that this would cause them to be more disciplined but instead it alienated many West Coast kids and put a real hamper in their ability to recruit Hawaii and athletes of Pacific Islander descent which had long been a fertile recruiting ground for the Wildcats. Instead Mackovic focused on his traditional base of recruiting Texas and saw most of his recruiting classes flame out. Mike Stoops seems to have instilled a culture of aggressiveness and toughness but his teams have been characterized by under-achievement and sloppy play. Stoops knows he can’t afford to have a non-bowl season as the natives are restless. His seat is the hottest in the conference. Why they will stay #8: The Cats will start the season with a different quarterback than Willie Tuitama for the first time in 4 seasons. The Pac 10 has traditionally seen teams led by Senior QB’s be successful and then struggle the next season. This could happen to Arizona. How they could slip in the future: The spread offense doesn’t kick in with Tuitama gone and the Cats lose like of folks on defense. Stoops misses out on a bowl, losses to ASU and finishes below Washington. Stoops is fired and the Cats make a mistake in hiring his replacement. How they could rise in the future: The Cats make investments to raise the quality of their facilities which are decaying (particularly their grass surface playing field which is the worst grass field in the Pac 10). Stoops continues to build through recruiting and the spread succeeds without Tuitama. Arizona becomes a consistent bowl attendee finishing in the top half of the conference consistently.
9. UW – How they got to be #9: A book could be written on how the Washington Husky went from being one of the most dominant football programs in the country in the early 1990’s to what was arguably the worst BCS conference team since the BCS started in 1998 (I am looking at you Rutgers 2001). Washington fans will point to the 85 scholarship limit, the track at Husky Stadium, the NCAA sanctions, the purple helmet era, spread offenses balancing the talent gap and Ty Willingham but the biggest factor in Washington seeing its program going in to the crapper has been a series of poor hiring decisions going back to removal of Jim Lambright. Lambright was a gruff figure and had the unfortunate fate of having to follow up Don James who is among the most beloved figures in the history of the Seattle sports scene. Lambright was beloved as a DC but as a Head Coach he didn’t seem to say the right words to the Tyee Club and despite taking Washington to a bowl every year eligible Lambright never won over Tyee because he never got UW back to the Rose Bowl. In comes Rick Neuhisal who gets UW to the Rose Bowl in two years with Lambright’s recruits yet follows up his pattern of cutting corners at a school that was under the microscope of the NCAA for violations under James. Neuhiesal had done a great job of recruiting skill position players but was lackluster in signing offensive lineman and front seven players on defense which had been the traditional backbone of the team. Washington would no longer win the battle of the trenches and then with his habit of really ticking people off and skirting the rules Neuheisal eventually got himself removed as coach of the Huskies. Washington then turned to Keith Gilbertson who was way over his skies and then Ty Willingham who severely misread the job he was taking over and the rest is history. To go 0-12 at a school with all the built in advantages that Washington has is almost impossible. The key for the Sarkisian regime will be making UW relevant again to not just Washington area kids but to top flight California recruits. They can only go up from here. Why they will stay #9: In the short term they certainly could if they build around Locker once more and he gets hurt. They have the talent to sniff .500 but again don’t play the type of schedule that a rebuilding program should have with LSU and Notre Dame on the docket. How they could slip in the future: How could it possibly be worse than 2008? Losing to Idaho perhaps at home? Another round of NCAA sanctions? How they could rise in the future: The Dawgs, with some effort, should be able to rebound to bowl contention by 2010, the cupboard is not nearly as bare as the one in Pullman is. They may want to consider ramping down the OOC schedule a bit. The Dawgs are hamstrung in that they can’t hope to fill Husky Stadium often playing the likes of Idaho and Utah State but they have no chance on the field against teams like Oklahoma, LSU and Ohio State when they invade Husky Stadium. UW is scheduled out for quite some time as if they were that late 80’s dominating team on the West that needs to make a splash to get more votes in the polls but the reality is that they should instead try and concentrate on playing a more manageable schedule to get back to bowl games. Going 1-2 or 0-3 in the OCC means you have to win 5 or 6 games in the Pac 10 to even be bowl eligible which is pretty tough considering the long losing streaks Washington has posted against USC, Oregon and Oregon State.
10. WSU - How they got to be #10: With all due respect to the Cougars intended they should be last on this list every year simply based on the fact that they are not on the I-5 corridor and are in the smallest media market in the Pac 10 by a large margin. Pullman is likely the most remote locations for any Div 1-A school in the country. The Cougars had a nice stretch of time in the late 90’s and early part of this decade but the wheels fell off pretty quickly by the end of the decade. Mike Price’s departure was the downfall of the program, even though Bill Doba was able to put up a 10 win season his first year out, the man was just not equipped to be a head coach in the 21st century in a BCS conference. To win at WSU you have except that you will have some 3-9 years in the mix and then hope that everything comes together for a big year. This formula has been to create a family atmosphere where kids like to play, take risks on guys that other schools may be avoiding because of academic/character issues and hope they pan out and run an innovative offensive system with a hard hitting defense. Of these tasks Doba probably only accomplished one towards the end of his regime and that was taking risks on questionable kids. Unfortunately those questionable kids got in a boat load of trouble and didn’t really excel on the field. Paul Wolff took over a team that not only was facing NCAA scholarship reductions but also was full of stiffs, malcontents and criminals. Wolff has overcome adversity before but he faces an all but impossible rebuilding job. Can he win quick enough to avoid being fired? Not many Seattle area alums are relishing the thought of driving 5 hours to watch more years of pathetic football. Why they will stay #10: Let me count the ways. Terrible economy, scholarship reductions, lack of talent, fan base who is not near the college, isolated campus, challenging conference, inability to attract recruits, strong programs at UO, OSU and Boise State who compete for many of the same players. How they could slip in the future: Lose the Apple Cup, which seems fairly likely this year. They’ve been more successful on the field than Washington has in the last decade for the most part however they are at such a major logistical disadvantage it’s hard to see them keeping up if Washington can even partially get back on the track. How they could rise in the future: Try to regain some of the magic under the late Price era, hope that Boise State fades as a program and a few other Pac 10 programs return to the dumpster fire status of the past (Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford for example) and come up with a truly innovative offense that evens the playing field against more talented squads.
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