Holiday Bowl

Royal Kahana Sunset
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Well definitely was a game of two halves - the Ducks played pretty horribly in the first quarter but the defense was able to keep them in by holding OSU to zero points in the second quarter. There were some very pivotal points in this game that had they gone the other way could have led to a Cowboy win. Obviously the Bryant injury was huge, that kid is a monster and has the look to be a Pro-Bowl caliber player at the NFL level. Another key turning point was the incomplete call on the what I thought was a touchdown catch by OSU that would have made the score 24-7, instead it didn't count and OSU missed the field goal keeping Oregon within 2 scores. Oregon deserves major credit for excellent kickoff return yardage, keeping OSU in front of them to not get beat by the long ball and by hitting incredibly hard on defense. Zac Robinson is probably in a world of hurt today, the kid showed a lot of mettle getting up from the Nick Reed (very borderline late hit) and TJ Ward hits. Give major kudos to the Ducks for coming together as a team and getting to 10 wins, this may have been Bellotti's best coaching job ever all things considered with the QB injury issues, the Doxey death and job status issues all hanging over him. The Ducks can hopefully use this game to springboard in to a 2009 BCS title run year.

Back at Work

Sunset Sail
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

The weather had kept me working at home for the last week and a half or so, now I am back in the office which is a change but nice in a way to get back in to a routine. This photo was taken on Valentine's Day 2008 in Maui. Ah to see a little sun and be in warm water again would be lovely . . .

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Just wishing everyone the best of holiday seasons. As you can see we are living in a winter wonderland here in the Portland area.

2008 Pac 10 Football Year in Review

Little Sunflower
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Well 2008 was in many ways like most of this decade in that USC was the champion of the league, Cal, OSU and Oregon all finished in the top half of the conference while Stanford, WSU and UW failed to make it to bowl eligibility. Arizona is headed to their first bowl in quite some time while ASU is out of the bowl season for the first time since 2003. UCLA, though they’ve been a fairly disappointing team this decade actually had not missed a bowl since 2001 and even that year they went 7-4. Karl Dorrell obviously left the cupboard bare and UCLA was hamstrung by the injuries to Olson and Cowan before the season started. Tis the season for awards and recognition.

Pac 10 Offensive Player of the Year: Jaquizz Rodgers, the tiny freshman running back carried the Beavers on his back to 7 wins before being hurt early against Arizona. Honorable mention Jahvid Best, Mark Sanchez, Willie Tuitama.
Pac 10 Defensive Player of the Year: The entire USC defense, I can't signal out just one guy on what was perhaps the best defense we've seen in the modern college game. Honorable mention to Nick Reed of Oregon and Zack Follet of Cal.
Pac 10 Freshman of the Year: Jaquizz Rodgers. Not even close on this one.
Pac 10 Coach of the Year: Mike Bellotti, in 2008 he got 9 wins out of a team that started his 5th string QB most of the season and was a few plays from being 11-1. Honorable mention to Mike Riley who managed to take a team that many thought would not be bowl eligible and come within one game of the Rose Bowl and 7 straight conference wins and Pete Carroll who guided the nation’s best scoring defense since Auburn in 1988.
Surprise Team of the Year: Oregon State looked to be in a rebuilding mode knocked off the #1 team in the country and won 7 in a row in league play.
Disappointment of the Year: ASU’s season was KO’ed by the UNLV loss. Though they did face about the hardest six game run I’ve seen in Pac 10 history ASU had the talent to be a bowl team. Dishonorable mention to Washington, who was sunk before the year started due to schedule difficulty but still had no excuse finishing 0-12.
Trend of 2008 that I hope doesn’t occur in 2009: A 1-6 regular season record against Mountain West teams and having the two worst teams perhaps in the history of the BCS era in UW and WSU.
Trend of 2008 that I hope occurs in 2009: New blood in bowl games. Arizona finally returned to bowl competition after a long drought, Stanford should be able to repeat the feat in 2009.
Coach with the hottest seat in 2009: Again it is likely Mike Stoops who will lose Senior QB Willie Tuitama though did get Arizona to the Vegas Bowl. Dennis Erickson needs a comeback year or people will start to wonder if he still has it in him anymore after so many years and stops.

Week 15 Power Poll

Evie collage
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

I did predict Oregon to win the Civil War but certainly not in the manner that it occurred in. Looking back you have to marvel at the coaching job that Mike Bellotti and Chip Kelly (coach in waiting!) did this year considering all the injury issues and lack of experience at QB. The Beavs should hang their heads high even after the crushing home loss, other than folks on the team and the most myopic of Beaver fans who could have imagined that they would break off 7 consecutive Pac 10 victories in 2008? With the Beaver loss all USC now has to do is defeat UCLA to go back to the Rose Bowl yet again. If that game doesn't go as planned then all the bowl pairings are going to change big time across the Pac 10 and even the country.

1. USC (1) - Best defense of the Carroll era but will go down as having the worst offense except for his initial team in 2001. I see no possibility for USC to get to the BCS championship game nor to get a share of the title with the writers vote. The Trojans picked the wrong year to have a hiccup.
2. UO (2) - Can't say enough about the offense and Masoli's amazing progression in to a competent aerial threat. Not sure I could have imagine this result after the Cal and UCLA games.
3. OSU (3) - Big UCLA fans this week. If that upset happened though you'd have to say that OSU would be among the worst teams ever to make a BCS bowl game.
4. Cal (4) - Players want to go to Vegas but Emerald Bowl wants the Bears big time. Look for the Bears to go off and try to pump up Best's running stats.
5. UA (5) - Yes Stoops has finally assured them of a bowl game but a loss to Arizona State would mean 4 straight L's to ASU and a 6-6 record. That might finally be the end for Ariozna who losses Willie T to graduation.
6. ASU (7) - Hell of a defensive performance versus UCLA that is all I can say positive about this team but a win in the Territorial Cup would make them bowl eligible which is fairly remarkable considering they had a 6 game losing streak.
7. LSJU (6) - Season is over not much to say other than they need to lock up Harbaugh and pay his assistants more if they want to compete in the Pac 10 going forward. There is no lack of money in The Farms endowment even with the economy.
8. UCLA (8) - If they let the ASU defense score 28 points imagine what the USC defense can do.
9. WSU (9) - At least they got to end their season a week earlier than Washington and in Hawaii to boot.
10. UW (10) - The big question is do they get Mike Leach and if not who will they turn to next?

Week 14 Power Poll

Farmer Squirt
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Congrats to the Washington Huskies on their quest for a defeated season, it takes some major skill to accomplish that in this era of parity. Let's hope they can complete the journey in two weeks in Berkeley in must see TV game. The Civil War of All Civil Wars Since the Biggest Civil Ware Ever in 2000 occurs on Saturday. I have a suspicion that Oregon will finally win a game in Corvallis a feat that hasn't happened since 1996 ending the Rose Bowl chances for Oregon State.

1. USC (1) - Please Trojans stick a fork in Fat Chuck and cause Notre Dame boosters to have to fork out a ton of cash in a recession.
2. UO (3) - I rank them 2nd because I think the Ducks will win the Civil War.
3. OSU (2) - McCants may be a better matchup for the Beavs against the smallish Oregon linebackers than Quizz, but moreso I want to see how the Beavs play as the hunted rather than the hunter.
4. Cal (4) - Got some revenge on Stanford for last years Big Game loss. Lucky they get an extra week to heal up for Washington, they will really need it.
5. UA (5) - Hey Mike Stoops that is why you play to win not play not to lose. Better beat ASU for your sake . . .
6. LSJU (6) - With a more advantageous schedule next year I think they are bowling.
7. ASU (8) - Since they get UCLA at home I like them over UCLA who couldn't beat anyone not named Washington on the road this year.
8. UCLA (7) - Another team that should be back bowling again next season in a comeback season for the Pac 10's national image.
9. WSU (10) - If WSU is the worst team in I-A what does that make Washington.
10. UW (9) - Finding new and creative ways to lose ballgames every week. Your 2008 Washington Huskies everyone!

Week Thirteen Power Poll

Phuket Sunset
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

1. USC (1) - Lack of offensive fire power will, baring a miracle, keep USC out of the BCS Championship game
2. OSU (2) - Two games from the unthinkable
3. UO (5) - The tale of two halves no playing a role they haven't played in the Civil War, since?
4. Cal (3) When it comes down to it not a good team on the road at all.
5. UA (4) Haven't lost at home all year but if they don't win out it is another 6 win season but this year a bowl will happen no matter what. Needs much better defense to beat the Beavs than they got in Eugene last week.
6. LSJU (6) Played USC tough, win the Big Game and they are bound for Hawaii or Emerald Bowl
7. UCLA (7) - Nice performance in Seattle, should show a lot of improvement in 2009.
8. ASU (8) - Nothing like WSU to break a slump.
9. UW (9) - This better be the week
10. WSU (10) - Lowest attended Apple Cup since?

Power Poll Week Twelve

Halloween
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

1. USC (1) - Still on the outside looking in for the BCS championship but I would love to see them against Florida in the big game if that somehow could occur.
2. OSU (3) - With Moevau back they should have enough to outlast the Bears in Corvallis.
3. Cal (2) - Only road win this season is versus Wazzu.
4. UA (5) Have to be a bit worried about giving up 28 points to WSU but they get the Ducks in a vulnerable state.
5. UO (4) On target for the typical Oregon November fade
6. LSJU (6) - Lightning won't strike twice
7. UCLA (7) - UCLA hasn't won on the road, UW hasn't won something has to give
8. ASU - Nothing like WSU to end a 6 game losing streak
9. UW - Could this be the week?
10. WSU - Are they the worst team in 1-A?

Power Poll Week 11

Cannon Beach Weekend
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

No notes just rankings this week:

1. USC (1) - Drops in the BCS despite posting 3 shutout in 4 weeks. Last real shot at a loss is this week but I highly doubt Cal has the horses to win in LA.
2. Cal (4) - Part of the sloppy play can be blamed on whether but if they turn the ball over 4 times versus USC they will get blown out.
3. OSU (3) - A very average team without Moevau at QB. Does their Rose Bowl dream end in Pasadena?
4. UO (2) - Clearly this team can only beat teams with a noticeable talent gap if they stay one-dimensional.
5. UA (5) - This week's game at Pullman means the Cats will be bowl eligible.
6. LSJU (6) - I'd have to scan the history books to see if Stanford has ever beat a conference foe by more than 58. Oregon is likely the best shot at a win need to get to bowl eligibility.
7. UCLA (7) - Seems to have OSU's number a win and they keep their slip bowl chance alive.
8. ASU (8) - Are they team who gives UW its first win? Showed some spunk versus OSU but still on a 6 game losing streak.
9. UW (9) - Bye Bye Ty.
10 WSU (10) - I think they've sewn up the title as worst team in the Pac 10 ever, now have to wonder if they are the worst BCS conference team ever. Rutgers 2001 perhaps?

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Ten

Cristom
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

With the loss suffered by Arizona to USC only one Pac 10 team now can state they control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl and that is the Oregon State Beavers who ironically lost the first game of the season to a fellow Pac 10 team. Interestingly enough Oregon State could win the Pac 10 but find themselves barely in the Top 25 as they have three losses. Not surprisingly the Ty Willingham era officially will end at the final gun of the Apple Cup. It will be interesting to see who ends up taking that job. As for Coach Ty I think he will go one of two routes: NFL assistant or taking the next Ivy League/high academic standing (like a Colgate, Holy Cross etc) 1-AA job that comes along. Oregon and Cal had excellent offensive performances in beating free-falling ASU and UCLA while Washington got punked at home by Notre Dame. As for this week you can consider the Cal/Oregon game as a playoff game in a way. The loser is looking at likely maxing out at the Vegas Bowl while the winner stays in the Pac 10 race. With the exception of one meeting Tedford-Bellotti matchups have been typically very close affairs.
1. USC (1) – The defense is the best that Carroll has had at USC in my opinion but the offense is lackluster. They need to hope for someone to knock Penn State off they don’t have the best resume if it comes down to computers and voters versus a won loss SEC or Big 12 team for the BCS title. Cal is the only remaining challenge on the schedule in my opinion.
2. OSU (3) - Didn’t need two weeks to prepare for ASU who they should beat to a pulp in Denny’s first return game to Corvallis.
3. UO (2) – Usually you don’t blow a team out on the road and go down but the more I think about it the more I think Oregon State would beat Oregon on a neutral field right now. The Ducks still aren’t the balanced team they need to be to beat top level Pac 10 teams. Oregon’s best win this year is probably UCLA, that isn’t saying much.
4. Cal (5) – They can’t afford to look past Oregon to USC as the Ducks have had this one circled for awhile. Cal should be able to throw on the Ducks but the game will likely be decided by the matchup between Cal’s secondary and Oregon’s passing game. They should look at tape of what UCLA did to Oregon and make Masoli try to win the game with his feet.
5. UA (4) – Great defensive performance but not enough O. Mike Stoops should be kicked in the junk for punting in USC territory on 4th with 3 minutes left. Give your team a chance to win the game, odder still the drive before in worse field position he went for it!
6. LSJU (6) – The Cardinal have their second straight bye week. Out wait the Cougs are in town.
7. UCLA (7) - Played Cal tough for 3 quarters but much of that was done with mirrors. How many points has Craft surrendered this year with stupid picks?
8. ASU(8) - Not many would have thought Denny Erickson would be working on a 5 game losing streak ever at the college level, it will soon be six.
9. UW(9) - The end of the Willingham era should come as no surprise to anyone. Good luck in South Central fellas.
10. WSU(10) – At this point why waste your freshman QB’s redshirt year?

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Nine

Hopworks Urban Brewery
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

This has not been a banner year for the Pac 10 conference as USC is now the only team in the Top 30 of teams getting votes in the coaches poll. Unless Oregon State or Arizona somehow wins out it seems highly unlikely that two Pac 10 teams will make it to the BCS and the conference as a whole is going to have a very hard time getting enough teams even bowl eligible to fill all of its spots. The big winner of the week was probably Arizona, however you could make the argument that Oregon was the big winner by not having to play. The Cats by beating Cal kept themselves alive as one of only two teams (other being Oregon State) that still control their own destiny in terms of the Rose Bowl. Obviously the odds are long for Arizona but along with OSU the possibility still exists. The Cats showed up enough on defense to stymie the Cal Bears and now get to take on USC. Going in to the year I thought that USC’s best chance at a loss was the Arizona game and the possibility of the Cats winning in Tucson this week can’t be overlooked. Financially the conference is hurt if USC losses here because it takes them out of the BCS Championship hunt but for the remaining contenders a USC loss would do a lot to make a Rose Bowl a possibility. USC was dominant against WSU but that means nothing, Oregon and Cal dominated the Cougs too and then were disappointing in their next games. In what has become a yearly trend Oregon State is starting to become a dominant team towards the end of the year and ran their winning streak over UW to 5 games. Who could have imagined in the early 1990’s that the teams from Oregon would go five years without a loss to the once mighty Huskies? Finally Stanford dropped a heartbreaker to UCLA which really hurts their bowl chances. The Cardinal, assuming they beat the Cougs in two weeks would need to win 2 out of 3 from UO, Cal and USC just to get to 6 wins overall, the road to 6 is possible but daunting.
1. USC (1) – Nothing went wrong for USC save for a blocked punt. No Pac 10 team should have a 41-0 lead in a conference road game, USC looked like they were playing a mediocre Big Sky conference team which is probably what WSU is at this point. USC faces its last big hurdle in my opinion when they travel to Tucson this weekend. Win that one and I give them a 50/50 shot of playing in the BCS championship game as the SEC and Big 12 beat each-other up.
2. UO (3) – Won by not playing and gets moved to the 2 spot by default. The Ducks should be better off with Justin Roper in the lineup since he can actually throw the ball down the field. The receivers need to become a factor again for the Ducks both for this year and for recruiting of future receivers.
3. OSU (4) – Did what they were supposed to and that is beat UW on the road. The Beavs face ASU at home in 2 weeks and pending Oregon beats the Devils the Beavs should extend ASU’s string of defeats to 6 games.
4. UA (6) – Nice win for UA over Cal and at 5-2 Arizona looks in good shape for a bowl game with WSU and ASU still on the schedule. Mike Stoops, pending a complete meltdown should do enough to save his job thus year which I think is good news for other programs around the league.
5. Cal (2) - With what has happened with some other Cal teams the last few years you have to wonder if Tedford’s guys will fold their tents again after a tough loss down in Tucson. Getting UCLA at home is nice for Cal because UCLA is a terrible road squad. The qb play was poor at Arizona but the defense was terrible and that could spell trouble down the road with Oregon and UCLA looming on the schedule.
6. Stanford (6) – Very disappointing loss to UCLA for Jim Harbaugh and company that hurts the chances of getting to 6 wins a great deal. Stanford just can’t seem to get over the hump on the road, this seems to show that they are one year away from being a team that should be able to get to a decent (ie Sun or Vegas Bowl).
7. UCLA (8) – at 3 and 4 still has a minute chance of getting to 6 wins but with USC, OSU and Cal still on the schedule that will be a tough task. This is a team that will improve a great deal from this year to next in my opinion.
8. ASU (7) – This is Rudy’s last stand. For some reason Oregon was very generous and moved this game a week back at ASU’s request. ASU needs to find a way to protect Rudy Carpenter who is still gimpy. If he can throw deep early and burn the Ducks (who will be blitzing early to try and rough up Carpenter) ASU has a shot. If not they are looking at 5th straight loss with a almost certain loss next week in Corvallis coming up.
9. UW (9) – Got plastered again at home versus Oregon State but I think that Fouche has a shot to be a decent throwing Qb and that the Dawgs might be better served moving Jake Locker to linebacker or safety. I don’t think he has a NFL future at QB and this may work out best for everyone. That will be the new coaches call however and we don’t know who that will be.
10. WSU (10) – Well when you think things can’t get any lower they do 69-0 being the proof. Thankfully for the Cougs they have a bye this week.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Eight

Evie and I
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Eight
Sorry for the lateness this week has been tough, my work computer got infected with a virus on Monday and Evie has been sick with the flu. She is doing much better now which is a good thing since cleaning up vomit and or diarrhea at two in the morning is not my idea of a fun time. Was it really six days ago that the Pac 10 last played games, seems like much longer to me. Last week’s game of the week was surprisingly Stanford/Arizona which probably was an afterthought before the season started with the ASU/USC matchup on tap . With the win Stanford actually controls their own destiny for the Rose Bowl and does get to play USC at home. Stranger things have happened, Stanford is a well coached team who has now won 3 games in conference play and needs only two more wins to get to bowl consideration. The wheels have completely fallen off at Arizona State who is off on this week for a bye while they try to heal up for Oregon in two weeks, they got beat 28-0 at USC who played very flat themselves. Memo to Paul Wolff, don’t throw Mike Riley under the bus for running up the score. I am sorry your team is perhaps the worst the Pac 10 has ever seen but Mike Riley is about as classy and kind a person in sports you would ever run across. Have fun with USC in town this week, you have to wonder if Kevin Lopina is happy to be back from injury or not? The Oregon Ducks have frankly beat no one of any substance this year and that trend continued with the UCLA performance which outside of a great pass and catch TD from Masoli to Harper the passing game for Oregon was non-existent. Both the UO secondary and wide receivers need to learn how to catch the football. Too many dropped balls made the final score of UCLA/Oregon way closer than it should have ever been. This week looks like another set of dud games in the Pac 10.
1. USC (1) – Brought their C game and still won 28-0 versus ASU. The concern I see in USCland however is that Mark Sanchez doesn’t look that healthy to me since Nick Reed rolled up on his knee. Expect to see a lot of backups play major minutes in Pullman this week. No need to even bring Joe McKnight along for the trip.
2. Cal (2) - With Zona’s loss to Stanford this game lost a lot of its luster. The last time Cal played in Zona the Cats ruined Cal’s Rose Bowl shot. Jahvid Best should be back and it will be interesting to see how the QB situation will work for Cal this weekend. The Bears are the only undefeated team in conference play this year joining Stanford as the only schools who still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl.
3. UO (3) – UCLA gave Masoli the run all night and he took it. Had the Ducks taken better care to actually catch the football and the Ducks could have made the game a laugher. I believe the return of Justin Roper will bring balance back to the Oregon offensive attack.
4. OSU (5) – Destroyed WSU and should destroy UW this weekend. The Beavs really should be 5-1 right now not 3-3. The Beavers have a very favorable schedule down the stretch and if they win out and Stanford losses a game they, not USC would be conference champs.
5. Stanford (7) – Was able to pull off a very important win versus UA and have kept their bowl hopes alive. I like what Harbaugh is doing down on the Farm. Stanford can’t afford a trip up to UCLA because they still have to play USC, Cal and Oregon down the stretch.
6. UA (4) – Just when you thought they might finally step out and be a contender the Cats blow a game they should win on paper. Not Arizona has to play Cal in a game that they must win if they have higher aspirations than the Vegas Bowl.
7. ASU (6) – In the words of Tommy Petty: “Free Fallin”. They have two weeks to get healthy for the Ducks – problem is the Ducks are magnificent after bye weeks and Justin Roper will be back.
8. UCLA (8) – Regretting that onside kick nonsense Neuheisal? UCLA was competitive against Oregon but the game would have gotten hand quickly if Oregon didn’t have hands of stone. UCLA can play spoilers this week to Stanford who has outside of the Washington game not played well on the road.
9. UW (9) – The best 0-5 team in America.
10. WSU (10) – Can it get any worse? Yes as USC is in town.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Seven

Evie
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Seven

The anticipated matchup of the week was Oregon-USC but that ended up turning in to mauling where upon USC put up 44 unanswered points. UO has some major concerns one being the lack of a passing game and the inability of the defense to defend against the pass, particularly the play action pass. One wonders if these factors might be related. Oregon has had the most trouble this year against the two teams they played (USC and Boise State) that had the most traditional Pro-style offenses. Perhaps the defense, while practicing against the Oregon offense has adapted to shutting down the spread but can’t handle a good Pro-style set. Makes for an interesting argument, many people in Duck land are calling for Nick Alliotti’s head but again I would be much more surprised to see him not in Eugene next year than I would Chip Kelly. Oregon can still finish 10-2 but I think 8-4 is more likely with the two losses coming to a combination of Cal, Zona and OSU. ASU played Cal a little closer than I would have thought but again the Bears physically beat up on ASU and it looks like Rudy is out for the USC game. Probably a good plan, ASU has no shot at UCLA and will then get a bye week to rest for Oregon with what should be a somewhat healthy Rudy Carpenter. In other games Arizona not shocking destroyed Washington. Too little too late for Stanford who played just well enough to lose to Notre Dame. Oregon State had Utah on the ropes then lost at the end, now the Beavers look like they can go on a 4 game winning streak with the Washington schools, UCLA and ASU on the schedule, they better because with a 1-2 OOC record and the loss to Stanford they would need to finish the Pac 10 schedule 5-3 even to be in the bowl discussion and would need 6-2 to secure a bowl. I won’t even bother discussing the WSU-UCLA game other than I sort of watched it while licking my wounds from the USC/Oregon blowout.\
1. USC (1) –UO played well early but had a series of foolish coaching decisions and bonehead plays on offense and defense that gave the Trojans their mojo back. USC if they can get by the hurdles of Cal and Zona still has a shot at the BCS championship game but clearly needs help with the disappointing play of the Pac 10 in OOC games this year. ASU will present no problem to USC this week at all expect lots of pressure on Danny Sullivan from the USC front seven.
2. Cal (3) – I think Cal stuck the final stake in ASU’s season. The Bears on the other hand have the inside track on the Holiday Bowl with Oregon suffering the USC loss while the Bears will get to play Oregon in Strawberry Canyon. Cal gets a week off to prepare for Arizona and hopefully get their QB situation figured out along with Jahvid Best back in the lineup.
3. UO (2) – It could be argued that Oregon is winning with mirrors. They have yet to beat a quality team this year and struggled with a clearly subpar Purdue team. However UCLA and Slick Rick are back in Eugene this week and UCLA has shown no sign of having an offense on the road this year. If Oregon doesn’t blow UCLA out there is an issue.
4. UA (6) – At Stanford is a huge game for the Cats, win it and they keep themselves in the position of being the team with, based on schedule, with the best chance of dethroning USC as league champs. Arizona has had a very easy schedule so far and the only blemish is the New Mexico loss but they frankly should be 5-0 at this point. Stanford is a tough team and is way more battle tested than Arizona is.
5. OSU (4) – The schedule eases up for the Beavs and that is needed. At 2-3 they can’t afford to drop more than 1 of the next 4 games if they want to be over .500 this year. Erase a few bonehead plays versus Stanford and Utah and the Beavs are 4-1 with only a road loss to a Top 10 team and in control of their own destiny for Pasadena.
6. ASU (5) – In the midst of a now 3 game losing streak the wheels on the bus are falling off for ASU. With USC a bye then Oregon the streak should be five games by months end.
7. LSJU (7) - Play Notre Dame tough but couldn’t pull out a must needed win. Now they need to go 4-2 from here on out to get to secure a bowl game and 3 to be eligible, losing to Arizona would make that all but impossible with Cal, USC and Oregon still on the schedule.
8. UCLA (8) – Not sure what beating WSU shows at this point, will face an Oregon team that is looking to get back in the swing of things and has Justin Roper so the Ducks should be able to throw down the field again.
9. UW (9) - Got mauled by the Cats, the Dawgs get a week off to prepare for Beaver Nation.
10. WSU (10) – Was at least marginally competitive versus UCLA now face a 30 point spread in Corvallis. I’d be surprised if Oregon State has ever been a 30 point favorite in a Pac 10 conference game.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Six

The big story of the week was no doubt Cal’s ending of the Mountain West’s domination over the Pac 10 by beating Colorado State in Berkeley. Oh whoops, I guess there was a big event that occurred in Corvallis last Thursday that needs to be mentioned first. Kudos to the Oregon State Beavers for making the winning streak over USC in games played in the state of Oregon to 3. This means that USC has not beaten an Oregon school in the post Leinart/Bush era on the road and that has to be a bit disturbing to Pete Carroll who has other than that only dropped two other games in that time frame both in Los Angeles. Oregon State did something which I haven’t seen any team do since the 2001 Vegas Bowl and Utah and that is dominate USC completely on both sides of the line for an entire half. OSU was physical and played it straight up with USC and it proved to be the correct game plan. When it looked like USC was going to come out in the 3rd and dominate the Beavers didn’t panic and kept getting first down to extend drives even if it didn’t mean scoring points. This was key because it killed clock and kept their defense fresh. Now what does this all mean, well # 1 USC is not the dominant squad we imagine they would be and a bit of the luster is coming off of Pete Carroll but with the losses sustained in the SEC last weekend I think USC still has a punchers shot to make the BCS championship game if the dominoes fall their way. Second it opens up the Rose Bowl chances for just about everyone except the Washington schools and UCLA, beat USC and win out and you’ll go to the Rose Bowl. This makes the season a bit more interesting for teams like Oregon and the Cal/ASU winner, while Arizona, due to the fact that of the legit contenders without a conference loss left, are the only to get USC on their home field. This means they might have the best shot at being the first non-USC squad to represent the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl since the 2002 Cougs if they can survive the rest of their schedule with only one additional loss. In other new Washington missed their likely best chance at a win until the Apple Cup with a home loss to Stanford and to add insult to injury the loss of Jake Locker for up to 8 weeks. Ryan Fouch actually showed some better promise as to throwing the ball than Locker but with time to adjust game plans I’d expect to see UW opponents drop a lot of players back in to coverage and try to force UW to beat them on the ground which will not be successful. The Willingham era is over in all but the official sense. He will likely coach out the rest of the year but resign after the Apple Cup. UCLA did score some points in the home loss to Fresno but the Bulldogs are a terrible defensive team, luckily they get to play WSU this week. Cal and Oregon had dominant performances against bad opponents, the only newsworthy item of those two games was the injury to Jahvid Best who now looks to miss the ASU game this week.
1. USC (1) – Typically you lose at #1 and you drop but I can’t see this happening this week due to the lack of strength among the other contenders. The gap is smaller but on a neutral field I still like USC way more than any other team in the conference. USC will be angry and wants to take it out on Oregon. USC is very much alive in the national championship race, and Oregon, with a win here could become in the discussion as well.
2. UO (2) – Total domination by Oregon, it makes them really have to look back at the cheap shot that knocked out Jeremiah Masoli against Boise State and wonder what if. The Ducks now have no margin of error from here on out. They can’t spend half the game with the wheels spinning like what occurred with Purdue and Boise State to have any chance to pull off the win.
3. Cal (3)- Cal was able end the Pac 10’s losing streak to Mountain West teams and seems to have recovered from the debacle at Maryland. The Bears can all but stick a fork in ASU with a win this week but won’t have Jahvid Best so expect more of an aerial assault from Cal
4. OSU (6) – The Beavs beat a number one team for the first team since 1967 which quite the accomplishment but they can’t rest on their laurels as they are venturing in to a hornet’s nest in Salt Lake City. The Beavs have to be seriously regretting the Stanford loss as they would be in all effects two games up on USC in the battle for the Pac 10 championship.
5. ASU (4) – ASU is in the middle of a gauntlet schedule that could very likely lead to season killing 5 game losing streak. The last time Rudy Carpenter played in Berkeley he was physically beat up by the Bears D-Line. Expect lots of pressure and a Devil loss.
6. UA (5) – Arizona hosts Washington and should quietly wait in the weeds with an easier early part of the schedule in league play before they host Cal and USC later in the month.
7. LSJU (7) – Got a road win in Seattle now must go to Notre Dame. Stanford could win this one which would do the nation a favor and eliminate any chance of Notre Dame stealing a BCS bid.
8. UCLA (9)- The question is whether the offense is back or whether it was just a poor Fresno defense that allowed UCLA yards and points. I’d aim with the poor defense by FSU. UCLA can’t afford a slip up to WSU at home.
9. UW (8) – Jake Locker is effectively out for the year not sure how much more this team can take.
10. WSU (10) - WSU could be a first division team, in the Big Sky.

Power Poll Week Five

Well the PAC 10 is now down to one undefeated team and for the 7th time in the last 9 games Oregon had it’s starting quarterback injured. This time Jeremiah Masoli was speared on a late hit that really should have led to an ejection but didn’t. For some reason Oregon stubbornly kept running the ball with Chris Harper when everyone in the entire stadium except for Chip Kelly seemed to know that a run was coming every play. Finally in the third quarter Oregon put in Darron Thomas who led the Ducks to 3 touchdowns via the air but it was just not enough. The Ducks have to look back and kick themselves and the loss just added to the fuel of it being USC and the Seven Dwarves. In the AP no Pac 10team is ranked outside of #1 USC. In other news Stanford got a win versus Bay Area rival San Jose State which should have been no surprise. Give Harbaugh credit for not overlooking this rival who has beat the Trees a fair amount of times over the last decade. UCLA was pretty much throttled on their home field by Arizona making it seem even more and more that the Bruins win over Tennessee was a complete fluke. The Bruins have 2 and 10 or 3 and 9 written all over them while Arizona got a big road win it its quest to finally make a bowl game again and maybe save Mike Stoops job. Arizona State showed that the Pac 10 outside of USC in not anywhere near the level of the SEC this year, the Devils weren’t really in this game from the get go and can now mark down 2008 as a likely lost season. Finally the Washington State Cougars found a team they could actually beat, too bad that said team is a mediocre Big Sky team and the Vikings at the same time knocked out the Cougars top two quarterbacks. Gary Rodgers it appears has now played his last game and the Cougs have won their last game unless they catch UW or UCLA on a really flat effort day.
1. USC (1) – Should roll tonight in Corvallis, the only thing that might derail a BCS Championship appearance by USC is having undefeated BIG 12 and SEC teams jump ahead of USC in the final coaches poll then the numbers would be very close and a ton of controversy were occur. This in the end may end up being Carroll’s best squad ever. He’s shown he can recover from the many losses of assistant coaches over the last 5 years that have used USC as a springboard to other jobs.
2. UO (2) – I’d rank them lower if I could, not sure there is much difference between Cal and Oregon right now but even though the Ducks lost they were playing with their 4th and 5th string true freshman quarterbacks most of the game. I’d imagine any team in the country might have struggled with BSU with the same scenario
3. Cal (3)- Cal has a chance to end the Mountain West’s five game advantage against the Pac 10. Absolutely a game Cal cannot drop after a bye week.
4. ASU (4)- The Devils were overmatched versus Georgia and now get a week off before going to Strawberry Canyon in a key game for the Devils to have any shot at the Holiday Bowl. With a game at USC the week after that before hosting Oregon, ASU could find itself with a 5 game losing streak that would likely mean the end of the Carpenter era.
5. UA (6)- Arizona is probably one more road win away from all but locking up a bowl appearance. They get two weeks to prepare for Washington at home.
6. OSU (5)- Oregon State is likely going to be 1-5 after the next two Thursday games. No criticism for losing to USC but I think they over scheduled themselves with having to play Penn State and Utah on the road in the same year. Boo on the fans for not even selling out Bean Dip for USC on national tv. If it weren’t for Duck fans buying up seats the crowd would be even less for this one. Here’s a clue, you’ve known for 8 months the game would be on Thursday, take a half or full day off from work and then all of Friday and make it to the game Beaver County.
7. LSJU (7)- Did what they needed to do and that is beat San Jose State. They have likely their best shot at a Pac 10 road win this week in Seattle, a win is completely needed to keep the bowl hope alive.
8. UW (8)- The Dawgs are the only winless team in the conference and have to be still smarting from the whooping that the Sooners laid on them. Willingham is dead man walking and has been for over a year but a loss here and the walking papers may come Saturday night.
9. UCLA (9) – Have frankly played dreadful offensive football for all but 1 quarter this season. Slick Rick and Nor Chow will need to wait to 2009 to get this baby back on track. Look for Fresno to come in to the Rose Bowl with a ton of fans of rough up a Pac 10 team further negating the value of the conference in the eyes of the nation’s fans and media.
10. WSU (10) – In the battle of 3rd string quarterbacks Washington State is overmatched big time against Oregon. Look for the Ducks to go over 350 yards rushing in a contest that will be decided by the mid second quarter.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Four

Well there were a few bright spots this week, one being the dominant performance by the USC Trojans who look like they might not get challenged this year, another was Oregon State getting a win for the first time this year and then finally Oregon has to be happy to snag victory from the arms of defeat at Purdue. On the other hand last Friday and Saturday, it can be argued, was perhaps the worst day of play by the Pac 10 as a whole in the history of the league. Washington State, UCLA and Washington were obliterated while Stanford, Cal, Arizona and ASU all lost games they should, on paper at least, have won. What the breakdown of all this means is that the Pac 10’s OOC record is really not looking good and that will hurt all teams outside of USC in the quest to get a second team to the BCS. I could easily see a scenario where Oregon goes 11-1 but gets kicked in the teeth by the Trojans and ends up at around 8th in the country but gets stuck in the Holiday Bowl. Pac 10 fans need to cheer against Utah, BYU, East Carolina and Notre Dame this year. At this point if you take USC out of the equation there is no doubt in my mind that if you compared the 9 Mountain West schools to the 2nd through 9th Pac 10 teams that overall the Mountain West is better. That is not a good sign for the 9 dwarves of the Pac 10 at all. As for this week we have a light schedule that is looking lackluster now after ASU lost to Mountain West doormat UNLV. ESPN Gameday is now not coming to Tempe and the Devils are not ranked in the Top 25 as the Bulldogs come to town. ASU has the chance to get their season back on track and highly ranked non-conference teams do have a history of losing night games in Tempe. Stanford simply needs to get things done and not blow another game to San Jose State, while the Cougs have their best chance for a win this year when Jerry Glanville brings his pigskin footbrawlers to Pullman. The remaining games are a non-conference tilt at Autzen between Oregon and Boise State where all eyes will be on the Ducks quarterback play and the Mildcats roll in to Pasadena to take on a UCLA team that thought they were playing BYE but was actually playing BYU.
1. USC (1) – Simple physically beat down and outclassed Ohio State. The Trojans will not overlook Oregon State like they did the last time they played in Corvallis. The game is on September 25th so the Trojans will be watching TV this weekend.
2. UO (3) – The Ducks didn’t bring their A game against Purdue and it showed but the team gutted out a win in less than ideal situations and got key special teams performances from Jairus Byrd and Matt Evensen. Boise State should bring an interesting matchup, I predict that BSU will try to sell out early to the run so the Ducks should try to go downfield early with Masoil. Roper may indeed be back for the USC game now. The Ducks should be 5-0 rolling in to that game since they face a scrimmage next week in Pullman.
3. Cal (2) – I will give Cal a pass for their performance in College Park last weekend. First of all why agree to a 9 AM Pacific start time, second of all why do you not fly in until 7PM local time the night before? Cal can now spend 2 weeks preparing for the Mighty Colorado State Rams.
4. ASU (4) – Classic trap game loss by the Devils. Now instead of hosting ESPN Gameday the Devils see themselves outside the Top 25 and will host the #3 team in the country in a game that could get ugly if the Devils can’t protect Rudy.
5. OSU (9) – Well they got their win but now face two likely losses after a bye this week. I’d rank this team lower but they were the only team below Oregon and USC who actually won this week so there is nowhere else to go.
6. UA (6) – Not terribly surprised the Cats lost to New Mexico but now they need to regroup and win a road game in LA. The Cats should be a better team than UCLA but it could depend on which UCLA team shows up. Stoops loses here and making a bowl game gets that much tougher.
7. LSJU (7)- Hurricane Ike kind of throw them for a bit of a loop with the early start date, probably not a game that the Trees were going to win regardless but one they could have won with a better effort. They can’t afford to choke to San Jose State yet again.
8. UW (9)- Worst loss in the history of Husky Stadium, I think that sums it up. Willingham seems to have survived to the bye week and because of that I think he lasts the year and resigns after the Apple Cup.
9. UCLA (5) – Nice use of that bye week UCLA. Did you guys think that the season was only one week long? Better be ready for Arizona this week.
10. WSU (10) – The last best chance for a win is this week versus Portland State. Now glory days in Pullman, how many fans make the drive from the Westside for this one?

Power Poll Week Three

The second week of the season is a traditionally bland week across the country with many matchups between BCS programs and non-BCS/I-AA programs. This was no different in the Pac 10 aside from Oregon State’s ill-fated trip to Happy Valley which was anything but happy. The Beavers clearly are going to have a horrible season unless they get drastically better play on both sides of the line, they better beat Hawaii because they are going to have major trouble not being 1-4 . Washington showed they have some heart but were torpedoed by a correct interpretation of a terrible rule. The Huskies deserved overtime but there lack of blocking on the 35 yard PAT attempt was as bad as the call that led to the 15 yard penalty on Locker. Oregon, ASU, Zona and Cal put up incredible offensive numbers while WSU looks like they have a great shot at not winning a game in league play. The LA schools were off but this week both face harsh tests in Ohio State and BYU. This week is packed with great games so I am glad to not be at Autzen for a week and to be home in front of the TV.
1. USC (1) – Nice to have a bye week before Ohio State. Pete Carroll doesn’t lose non-conference games, particularly at home. I see USC winning but I might think about taking the points with OSU if I was a betting man.
2. Cal (4) – Unlike UO and ASU the Bears blew out a patsy on the road rather than at home. This team is getting slept on by the media but faces a long road trip out east to play at 9 AM Pacific to an angry and embarrassed Maryland team who lost a Sun Belt team. Cal should roll but the game will be closer than the talent difference because of the time and distance factor.
3. UO (3) – The Ducks played great setting a record for most offensive yards in a game. This record wouldn’t have likely been broken if the Ducks had forced any turnovers. This led to longer drives and more yards. Expect to see a very slow turf at Purdue to try and slow down Oregon. Purdue will get some points but I think the Ducks will wear them down in the end. Blount actually maybe more effective on grass than turf so I’d expect to see a two-headed attack with him and Johnson in the same backfield from time to time.
4. ASU (2) – ASU played fine against Stanford, I dropped them because I think at this point Oregon and Cal are better teams. UNLV should present no problem at all to the Devils.
5. UCLA (5) – The state of Utah has not been kind to UCLA and I expect the Cougars to pull out the win against the rested Bruins. UCLA got mauled last year by the Utes but have played the Cougars many times over the last few seasons so no one should be surprised at what each team throws at the other even with the additions of Chow and Neuheisal.
6. Arizona (6) – Rolled up on Toledo but now face a dicey game against rival New Mexico in Albuquerque. This is a game that always means more to UNM than to UA and Rocky Long’s boys won last year in Tucson. Dangerous game for UA.
7. LSJU (8) – They played tough for the first half but faded to the more talented ASU team. Stanford I think is one year away from a bowl game, the schedule is too tough this year with only 5 home dates. The face a fairly tough TCU team coming off a disappointing 2007 campaign. The Trees if they want to have a chance at a bowl game can’t afford to lose games like this one.
8. UW (10) – The Dawgs played their hearts out but in the end lost, in part to a stupid rule. Unfortunately Oklahoma comes in this week to Montlake. With a bye week coming up next week expect to see Willingham resign or be fired this Saturday night.
9. OSU (7) – There is no doubt that the Beavs have some very talented skill position players but they need to shore up the line play and they need to do it ASAP. Hawaii they should be able to outmuscle for once but USC is in the wings on Thursday the 25th. They need to put Penn State game behind them.
10. WSU (10) – Baylor likely presents the last best chance for a win versus a 1-A opponent for the Cougars, though you never know what can happen in an Apple Cup. Getting routed the way they did versus Cal at home is beyond painful.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Two

Dominant offensive performances were seen all around the conference this week but the big story has to be the triumphant return of Rick Neuheisal and Norm Chow to Los Angeles and the win they were able to pull out of a hat versus Tennessee on national TV this Labor Day. I didn’t watch much of the first half and really didn’t miss anything other than a terrible offensive performance by both team but especially UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft. Chow and Neuheisal deserve credit for staying with the kid after 4 first half picks. Somehow, due to a combination of better accuracy and Tennesse dropping back in a deep zone against a weak armed QB UCLA was able to throw drives together while on defense get some big league run stuffing from their very solid up the middle defense. UCLA always seems to play OOC teams tough and this game was just another example of that. The Bruins will likely still face major struggles this year they should end of making a bowl which before the Tennessee game was not a likelihood in my book. In other news USC is good, really good and have the fortune of playing Oregon, Ohio State, ASU and Cal all in the Coliseum. Does anyone see a loss on that schedule except possible against U of A on 10/25? Give Stanford credit for maximizing their talent and taking advantage of some dumb mistakes by Oregon State but clearly the less talented team won last Thursday. This was a bad loss for the Beavers, who pending a miracle are looking at a 1-3 start. I am not sure really what to take out of the Oregon/Washington game other than that Washington is really bad, Oregon should be able to start out 5-0 and win at least 8 games but the second half of the schedule is dicey. As for Washington I’ve heard rumors that the guy they have in their cross-hairs for taking over for the dead man walking Willingham regime is Chip Kelly. Kelly going to UW would be beyond a coup – it removes your rivals second most important asset (after Uncle Phil) while at the same time brings in a dynamic offensive mind who would likely work wonders year one with Jake Locker. Oregon cannot let this happen but it is going to be very hard for them to keep Chip Kelly from taking a head coaching job. If Oregon were to lose him it would better to lose him to a non-Pac 10 school. Outside of WSU the rest of the conference played fairly well other than Nate Longshore who I think we can officially put the fork in to. From Heisman candidate on the #2 in the country to not starting in less than a year, Cal wins by 21 if he doesn’t play.
1. USC (1) – Looked truly dominant, they could be back to the form of the 2004 team. Sanchez showed no rust and looked much better than last year and the Trojans get an extra week for Ohio State who will have a banged up Beanie Wells. I’d eat my hat if this team doesn’t play for the BCS championship even with 1 loss.
2. ASU (2) – I’d move them down but I had them 2 last week and from what I read pulled almost everyone for the second half of the NAU game and treated it like a scrimmage. Stanford will provide them a nice chance to get in a game versus a quality opponent before Georgia comes to town but at the same time this game has “trap game” written all over it. Interesting that Stanford will have played two Pac 10 games already while most of the league has played zero.
3. UO (3) – Who needs Dennis Dixon? Just kidding but clearly QB is not as big as a worry for Oregon as I had thought. I think by mid-season Jeremiah Masoli will be playing the majority of snaps as he better fits the scheme. Utah State will be treated as a scrimmage by the Ducks, I’d expect Roper won’t play in the second half nor will Jeremiah Johnson.
4. Cal (4) – They beat a similar team to themselves in a rapidly improving Michigan State. Game would have been closer if Longshore hadn’t played. I still think this team has the second best talent in the league but they need play some better defense it appears. No Pac-10 road game is easy but I look for a comfortable win in Pullman this weekend.
5. UCLA (9) – The Tennessee win was kind of a perfect storm scenario and they Bruins shouldn’t be expecting to get that kind of performance every week against Top 20 teams, at the same time the Bruins do have the potential to go bowling this year and I didn’t think that last week.
6. UA (6) – Idaho stinks but beating anyone 70-0 is impressive. They should have no issues versus Toledo this week.
7. OSU (5) – Yeah they lost to Stanford but if they can fix their issues on the front seven with run defense and if Moevao can have a little better ball security they will be in the mix for a top 5 Pac-10 finish. Playing at Penn State might be a bit too much too ask at this point for a young team.
8. LSJU (8) – Very nice win versus OSU, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of getting everything he can out of his players but depth and athleticism are clearly lacking. Going in to Tempe and looking for a win is probably too much to ask at this point. The schedule makers did Stanford no favors with only 5 home games this year.
9. WSU (10) – The only reason I have them 9th is that they have an easier schedule than Washington and have a better chance of having their QB survive the season. They should be able to give Cal a game for a half but I don’t see an upset occurring.
10. UW (7) – The Huskies are in major trouble. They have a schedule set up like they are defending national champs not a below average Pac-10 team. They need to get better protection for Locker who will face long odds in lasting the season, the Dawgs could beat BYU but will face tough odds against a physical team needing a BCS conference road win to make their case for a BCS berth if they were to go 12-0.

Pac 10 Power Poll – Week One

Oregon vs Arizona State
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll – Week One
Sorry to make excuses but I will not be able to break out my full yearly preview that I normally do. Life with a 20 month old child is a lot busier than the days of past. Evie is doing great and growing by leaps and bounds. Emily and I have been taking her to Gymboree twice a week the last few weeks and she is really enjoying it. Well now on to football and clearly USC is the cream of the crop and I would not be shocked to see them run the table in the Pac 10. I think the overall talent level of the conference has dropped from last year to this a bit – some of it is related to attrition to graduation and the NFL but another major factor is the lack of quarterback depth at many schools. UCLA already faces major issues and both Oregon and Oregon State are one injury away at the quarterback spot from having dismal seasons. Again this poll is not where I think the teams will finish at the end of the year it is where I have them ranked today. This is what I busted out on my lunch break today and hopefully after watching some games this weekend I will learn a whole lot more and can bring more to the table next week.
1. USC - The Trojans had more hype going in to last year than this year and were oh so close to a shot at another BCS championship in 2008. Only a few fateful plays by Stanford (and a poor decision by Pete Carroll not to pull John David Booty when his finger was clearly bothering him) kept USC from having the opportunity to destroy Ohio State in the BCS Championship game. USC lost Keith Rivers and Sedrick Ellis to the NFL but should still remain dominant on defense. I have some questions about the offense but this is still a Top 5 team and I would be shocked to see them lose 2 games again in the Pac 10. Mark Sanchez is likely out for Virginia but the Cavs lack the talent to hang with USC and the offense under Mitch Mustain should be fine.
2. Arizona State – The schedule is tougher this year than last but Dennis Erickson has some things going for him this year in that he has a senior QB, will have his typical JC mercenaries in their second year in the program and if you remember he took Oregon State to the Fiesta Bowl in his second season their with much tougher recruiting obstacles than Erickson faces at ASU. However his players also face much more opportunities to get themselves in to trouble so team chemistry and characters issues could certainly arise. Week one’s matchup versus Northern Arizona will likely be treated more like a scrimmage than a real game for the Devils.
3. Oregon – The Ducks have a major flaw in their high flying offense and that is quarterback depth. The road schedule is brutal. With an injury to Justin Roper early in the year I could see the Ducks winning as little as 3 games this year but if he can stay healthy and Massouli and Harper/Thomas can figure out how the offense I think that Oregon could win as many as 9 games. The defense will be among the best in the conference and should force many turnovers. The question will be if Roper can stay healthy. I think that Florida’s national championship team is the model Oregon will want to use, with Roper playing the Leak role and Massouli and Harper playing more the Tebow role. Roper needs to avoid contact as much as possible, he is quick for his size but lanky. The Ducks should beat Washington as long as Roper stays healthy, the Dawgs have the ability to make this game close just because of Locker but the Ducks have had Washington’s number for awhile and I see that continuing.
4. Cal – Cal needs to regain their heart which was ripped out of it by the loss to Oregon State last year – this is a talented roster that overall may have the second best set of athletes after USC in the conference but they took major hits to skills position guys on offense and will depend on talented and fast but young wide receivers. I look for Cal to pull out a close win versus the similarly styled but a bit less talented Michigan State Spartans.
5. Oregon State Beavers – Massive hits on defense and the loss of Yvensen Bernard could spell early trouble for this traditionally slow starting team. Stanford should be a battle tonight and I don’t have a good feeling either way on how it breaks out since Stanford has a brand new DC. Oregon State will likely finish the year higher than this but if they were to lose Muavo early they, just like Oregon, can flush the year down the toilet. Sean Canfield may never be healthy and after his is a redshirt freshman walk-on in Justin Engstrom. I like the Beavers in a close win tonight down in Palo Alto.
6. Arizona Wildcats – Arizona could end up being the surprise team of the year with a senior QB now in his fourth year of starting and finally getting a chance to run the same offense a second time. The Cats need to avoid their poor early start and on paper could actually be favored in their first 7 games. With Idaho coming to town not much of the playbook will be used and I expect to see backups in much of the second half.
7. Washington Huskies – Jake Locker like Justin Roper needs to stay healthy for Washington to have any chance of managing its minefield early schedule and saving Ty Willingham’s job. The Huskies played tough first half last year but lacked the depth to finish teams off, the defense is replacing a ton of guys and the oline is subpar. None of these factors make me think that Washington will be sniffing a bowl game this year but at least Willingham has improved recruiting enough that the next coach should have a winning year his first year out. The Huskies could shock the Ducks if they can stop the pass early and make Oregon one-dimensional but that will be tough with the arm of Roper and the fleet Oregon receivers.
8. Stanford Cardinal – Stanford was giving hope by Jim Harbaugh, they have some NFL athletes but just like every Stanford team lack depth and face tough road tests this year at Notre Dame and TCu. Stanford also has the unfortunate situation of playing two straight league games against teams they will be underdogs to start the year. A win over the Beavers would bring good momentum and is very necessary if they have any chance of going bowling.
9. UCLA Bruins – This is probably the team with the third best athletes in the league but QB injury issues will make them look quite inept and they lost a ton on defense. Tennessee should be able to come in and shut down UCLA on its home field. Expect lots of stories on ESPN on how the Pac 10 is down after this result Neuheisal will get this team turned around but it won’t be until 2009.
10. Washington State was hit by the double whammy of losing a few players to behavior and injury issues from the program as well as losing 7 schollies due to academic problems with the NCAA. The Cougars will score points with a senior QB in Rogers and perhaps the best wide receiver in the league in Brandon Gibson but the defense clearly will stink. The Coug can only go up from here but I see a last place finish for them. Oklahoma State will prove to be too much in week one even though the game will be played at Qwest Field in Seattle.

Summertime in Oregon

Evie at the Fountain
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Just checking in quickly during the dog day's of August. I've had a busy summer, work's in pretty crazy with some technology changes and I made some time to visit Sun Valley, Idaho with some friends for my buddy Jeremy's bachelor party. This weekend I am going to be in is wedding and that should mark the end of all the weddings I have attended for awhile. Looking forward to the football season and being back in Eugene for games. I think the news from camp has been positive for the most part. I see Oregon winning between 8 and 10 games this year, likely ending up back in the Sun Bowl or perhaps the Holiday Bowl.

Not Much To Say

Scenes Fom the Royal Kahana
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

I haven't had a chance to blog in a while and amazingly I haven't watched a single sporting event since Kansas beat Memphis which seemed like eons ago. The little tv I watch is 95% childrens movies and an occasional DVRing of shows Emily and I watch like Three Sheets. Hopefully I will have time to examine the NBA draft before the prep work beings for football season. Life is so busy now the only time that is my own is my lunch break and that is often my errand running time. That isn't to say life isn't good it is just much more busy than I would have ever imagined 3 or 4 years ago. With the awful weather we are having this early June in Oregon I thought I'd post a photo from beautiful Maui where I am sure it is not raining and cold.

And Then There Were Two . . .

Evie
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

And Then There Were Two . . .
Saturday’s game came with the results I predicted but they ultimately were huge disappointments for the viewers of everyone who wasn’t a Kansas or Memphis fan or for folks who had those teams in the finals for their office pool (Memphis was of course the #1 seed I thought had the least chance of making it to the Final Four before the thing started). I’ve traditionally thought that UCLA’s Ben Howland was one hell of a game coach but Saturday’s result left me questioning myself. UCLA made a ton of sloppy first half mistakes that you wouldn’t expect from players like Collison, Shipp and Mbah a Boute who had played in 3 previous Final Four games. Howland burned two timeouts right before media timeouts which was horrible because the pace of the game was going way too fast to hope that Love and Westbrook could play without resting. I thought they were really lucky to be only down by 3 points at halftime and really felt the only reason the lead wasn’t 10 was because Memphis, outside of Douglas-Roberts and Rose, through up a ton of questionable shots (Sean Taggart for three!). I figured that UCLA would get the better of the halftime adjustments and take advantage of their lack of foul trouble and possibly steal the game at the end in a free throw shooting contest. When Dorsey and Taggart both picked up quick 3rd fouls I thought that UCLA had a good chance to win the game despite getting down by 7 in the first minute and a half. Instead UCLA abandoned the notion of getting the ball down low to the obviously winded Love and played him mainly on the perimeter where Love’s attempted three’s fell just short. Darren “Stock Dropping Faster Than Bear Stearns” Collison was outmatched on defense trying to guard Rose and offensively he was completely unable to penetrate the long armed defenders of Memphis. Result was a lot of missed mid-range jumpers by a team who lacks anyone who can consistently hit that shot. Westbrook was the only Bruin who could effectively score and almost all his points were on drives to the hoop where he simply outmuscled the entire Tiger defense. Give major credit to Dorsey and Taggart for going so long without picking up more fouls and tiring out Love. UCLA’s best lineup was Westbrook at the point and replacing Aboya or Keefe for Collison who was completely ineffective in this game and committed multiple frustration fouls. Since the Sweet 16 kicked off Memphis has been playing at the level of UNLV 1991 and unless Kansas can get a huge defensive effort from their guards the Tigers are going to become the first non-BCS conference team to win a championship since said Running Rebs of Jerry Tarkanian. Well on to Kansas and UNC – this game started off so badly for Carolina that I DVRed it once the game was 40 to 12 and watched the rest later after Evie went to sleep. As Billy Packer said this was really three games and Huckleberry Hound was asleep at the switch for the first segment of this game because there is no excuse whatsoever for a team as talented as Carolina is to spot any non-NBA team a 40-12 lead. Kansas coming out and playing unreal until they were so tired they started settling for threes every-time down and allowed Carolina back in to the game but the gallant Tar Heel effort was snuffed out because they too were too winded and started putting Kansas on the line where this one was sealed. Congrats to the Jayhawks but now you really have to wonder how much energy they are going to have left after playing the late night game that was played at an unbelievably quick pace. I am hoping for a good game in a tournament that outside of the Friday of the First Round has been lackluster. The Final Four has been a massive disappointment going back the last 4 years so hopefully tonight gives us a classic who’s memories will keep us fans content for the long break from college sports action we are about to undertake.

Monty to Cal

Evie
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Cal filled it's opening today by hiring Mike Montgomery who had been working at FSN and living off his Golden State Warrior money. This really ups the bar in terms of quality coaches in the Pac 10. I always thought Monty was a great game, perhaps the top guy in the country and taking his team back from a 10 point deficit in the last 2 minutes. The fans of Stanford can't be too happy with this occurence. In other news Bill Grier has turned down Oregon State. Could this mean he is off to Gonzaga or even Oregon for the 2009/2010 season (with the prediction that Ernie Kent is done in Eugene after 2008/2009)?

Final Four Week Thoughts

Cannon Beach Weekend
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

The Pac 10 is seeing some major turnover in coaches and more dominoes could conceivably fall with the Final Four being a de-facto coaches convention with guys lobbying for jobs . It appears as if Billy Grier will end up in Corvallis if he wants to – if in fact Ernie Kent is replaced after next year by Mark Few this makes for an interesting scenario. Both guys grew up just south of Eugene, both attended the U of O but didn’t play basketball their and both have a long history of working with each-other in Gonzaga. There were whispers over the years that Grier was the man behind the scenes at Gonzaga heading up the amazing recruiting success and had more to do with the Zags success than Few. We shall see but it seems there may be some type of rivalry between the two coaches brewing which would really get heated if they both ended up in the Willamette Valley. I think Ben Braun at Cal is a quality coach but it was his time to go, that’s a very good job but the Bears need to get a big name in there but got a no from Jamie Dixon. Randy Bennett would be a good hire there but his St Mary’s team has a legit Sweet 16 run in them next year. Lute Olson is back and Kevin O’Neil is out in Tucson, I think this makes sense in the short term as people didn’t like O’Neil much and the guys dome resembled an eggplant during games but Olson needs to set a date for his retirement and get out, his style isn’t really meshing with the current defensive minded Pac 10 coaches and the Cats have been living on brand name for the last five years. He might luck out and keep Buddinger and Bayless for a year but then they might leave. Either way this Arizona team will be hurting defensively next year. As for the games in San Antonio I think we have the potential for the best Final Four ever. I am pulling for a Carolina win over UCLA because I will win two bracket pools and $700+ if that happens but my head is telling me we are going to see a Memphis/Kansas final. I like the Jayhawks and Tigers because of their depth. Carolina doesn’t have the depth of KU and if Roy Williams wants to win I think he needs to slow the game down which I don’t think he will do, Kansas has the depth to out run Carolina. Memphis will win as long as they hit free throws and don’t self destruct, UCLA has the better coach and the players at UCLA have a higher basketball IQ but Memphis is loaded, playing dominant ball and have a huge size advantage. The Bruins need a huge game from Shipp and Love and need to hope that the refs keep giving them the benefit of the doubt. UCLA has been playing with fire for over a month now and it is going to catch up with them soon. In the finals I like Kansas over Memphis in a game played in the high 80’s.

Bracket Thoughts

Kahana Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

First off kudos to the tournament selection committee, I thought they did about as good of job seeding and including the 34 most deserving teams as ever and a much improvement over the last two years but I do have some complaints. First off why are they having so many mid-majors play each-other in the first round, this trend seemed to have started last year and I think it is bad for the tournament and makes the first round less interesting. This is obviously designed to lessen the chance of mid-major getting to the Sweet 16 and beyond and it makes for a less interesting tournament early which is most certainly what we saw last year when the first day especially there was a lack of exciting games. Second major complaint was the placement of Tennessee. The Vols were on the edge of getting a 1 seed, were the only team to beat Memphis (and did so on the road) and still got stuck with the hardest road to the Final Four of any of the two seeds and you could make the argument that possibly on Washington State has a harder route to the Final Four of any of the top 16 seeds. I’d give the Vols a very small chance of surviving the possible gauntlet of Butler, Louisville and Carolina (in Charlotte) to get to San Antonio. I had minor quibbles with the seeding of the following teams: Oregon (too high), Miami (too high), Vanderbilt (too high), Pitt (too low) and most egregious Portland State receiving a 16 seed over American and UMBC to name two teams that got 15’s. Here is my latest projections region by region though I am sure this will change from my right before the tourney starts picks which I will post to ESPN tomorrow morning. These picks are likely too conservative while my first brackets may have been a bit too bold, looking for that perfect combination is tough but I have a pretty good track record of picking brackets and last year won my Yahoo pool by placing 7 of 8 in the Elite 8 and getting every game in the Final Four correct:
East : My general thoughts are that North Carolina has a very difficult bracket for being the #1 seed of the entire tournament but they won’t have to leave the state to get to the Final Four and if I what I heard is correct, has only lost one NCAA tournament game as the #1 seed in the East Regional. If any of the games were not played in the state of Carolina I’d give WSU or Louisville or even Tennessee a very good shot to beat the Heels.
Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16 – The Butler Bulldogs, if they get past South Alabama, have a legit shot to beat Tennessee. Though the Vols will be playing quite close to home and won’t have to face a crowd that will jump behind the underdogs Butler can dictate tempo and win a free throw contest.
First Round Winners:

UNC (1)
Indiana (9)
Notre Dame (5)
WSU (4)
St Joes (11)
Louisville (3)
Butler (7)
Tennessee (2)

Second Round Winners:

UNC (1)
WSU (4)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UNC (1)
Louisville (3)

Elite 8 Winner:

UNC (1)

Midwest: On paper Kansas has the easiest route of any of the #1 seeds to the Final Four which is a bit peculiar as they are generally regarded as the lowest ranked of the #1 seeds. Kansas has a possible dangerous game versus a hot and athletic Clemson team and the well coached Badgers of Wisconsin could prove difficult to defeat in Detroit. What I don’t like about Kansas is Bill Self’s coaching record in NCAA tournament games when he isn’t the coach of Tulsa.

Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: Davidson, who gets the advantage of playing in their home state for the first two rounds, playing a fellow mid-major in the first round who has to travel 2700 miles and play at 9:30 AM Pacific and getting a shot at the weakest of the two seeds in Georgetown.

First Round Winners:

KU (1)
Kent State (9)
Clemson (5)
Vanderbilt (5)
K-State (11)
Wisconsin (3)
Davidson (10)
Georgetown (2)

Second Round Winners:

KU (1)
Clemson (5)
Wisconsin (3)
Georgetown (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

KU (1)
Wisconsin (3)

Elite Eight Winner:

KU (1)

South: This is a brutal region that typically doesn’t see the #1 seed advance to the Final Four and I believe that this year will be no different. Not only does Memphis face a very difficult Sweet 16 matchup versus either Pitt or Michigan State even if they survive that they’d play a likely game versus Texas in Houston. I don’t think Memphis can coast on athletic ability alone and the free throw issue will haunt them one of these games as it did versus Tennessee.

Best shot at a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: The Temple Owls who have played very well down the stretch could steal a few wins from Michigan State and Pitt before they battle Memphis.

First Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Miss St (8)
Mich St (5)
Pitt (4)
Marquette (6)
Stanford (3)
St Mary’s (10)
Texas (2)

Second Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Pitt (4)
Stanford (3)
Texas (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

Pitt (4)
Texas (2)
Elite Eight Winner:

Texas (2)

West: It almost seems to easy to me for UCLA to get to the Final Four and that scares me because having watched a large amount of Bruins games this year they tend to not blow anyone out so if they get in a situation where Josh Shipp is cold and Love gets in foul trouble they could go down early busting brackets nationwide in matchup versus a Texas A & M or UConn. The Arizona Wildcats are an intriguing 10 seed who if they can get past the horrific gauntlet of playing West Virginia and Duke in Washington DC would suddenly become a threat to win the region as they’d get to play in Phoenix on the second weekend. When it comes down to it though I just can’t not take UCLA to win this region. On paper it seems like this is a bracket that will play mainly to form but I have a feeling that at the end we could see it being the bracket that is the most busted up of them all.

Best Chance for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: If the Baylor Bears can control the tempo and keep running they can knock off Purdue and Xavier who are both quite deliberate defensively oriented teams.

First Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
Texas A & M (9)
Drake (5)
UConn (4)
Baylor (11)
Xavier (3)
West Virginia (7)
Duke (2)

Second Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
UConn (4)
Xavier (3)
Duke (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UCLA (1)
Xavier (3)

Elite Eight Winner:
UCLA (1)

Final Four Predictions Rundown:

I truly hate taken 3 # 1 seeds to the Final Four and this isn’t necessarily the bracket I would submit in to any bracket pool but I am having trouble spotting the obvious take down games that I was able to find last year. In addition the Big 12 has not been to adept at getting teams to the Final Fo On the left side of the bracket I see Kansas/UNC as being an epic match-up. If Bill Self can get the monkey off his back and get to this game I see him continuing his new found mojo and knocking off ex-Jayhawk Roy Williams. I am sure we will all be so sick about hearing about how hard Tyler Hansborough works by them that it will be a relief to have this year’s version of the Great White Hope vanquished. Carolina is a very solid team but tend to have trouble at times consistently making outside shots. This is what cost them last year in the Georgetown game and this should be their downfall as well this year. On the right side of the bracket I think UCLA has the defensive ability to slow down DJ Augustine enough to mitigate the pro-Longhorn crown you’d find in San Antonio.

In what should be a better Finals matchup than we have seen in a few years I see UCLA cutting down the nets for a team that will have three guys drafted in the top 15 picks in Collison, Westbrook and Love.

6 Pac 10 Teams in In

Emily and Evie at Max's
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

With the Georgia Bulldogs winning today I figured that no more than 6 Pac 10 teams would get in. Once I saw Villanova make it was obvious that ASU was not going to get a bid. I think Oregon was overseeded at 9 but at 9 they have hardly any chance at getting to the Sweet 16 while at an 11 or 12 (where they in all reality should be seeded they would have a harder first round game but would avoid the early battle with a 1 seed).

Pac 10 Tourney

Emily on Cannon Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Just watched Cal hold off UW, wouldn't be surprised to see Cal win again tomorrow. UCLA is #1 in the West win or lose so a few extra days rest could help. If anyone wants a great example of what they call "Coach Speak" I hope they caught FSN's pre game interview with Kevin O'Neil. O'Neil basically said nothing, the interview was a waste of everyone's time. The man has the personality of Lloyd Carr it appears. As a final thought congrats to the Portland State Vikings on making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in their history.

Bubble Watch

Where is Nemo?
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here is what we know: With USC beating Stanford they have sealed up a bid no matter what happens around the country between now and Sunday and that leaves 4 Pac 10 teams as locks. We also know that UCLA is getting the benefit of the doubt from the zebras who as usual have embarrased the Pac 10. We know that Arizona could have sealed a bid and killed Oregon had they won Saturday night and they didn't. We know that no Pac 10 team has ever made it at 9-9 but this year a 8-10 team might make it over two 9-9 teams who both swept said team. We know that Oregon could go back and look at any of 5 games this year and had they gotten a win in any of them there would be no further conversation needed. We know that Lisa Love could have done a better job at not scheduling such a cream puff OOC schedule at Arizona State this year. We know that Kevin O'Neil is no Lute Olson. We know the next week is going to be very interesting the Pac 10 could get as many as 7 teams in or just 4.

Playoffs?

A Hike in the Nature Park
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Well the Ducks squeezed one out against ASU last night and now face what may be a matchup for the 6th and final bid to the tournament from the Pac 10. Both teams are 8-9 and while Arizona does have the more impressive RPI and SOS number (Oregon's SOS is good as well) by beating the Cats the Ducks would have 2 wins over them. Whoever wins this one at Mac on Saturday will likely need to win at least one Pac 10 tourney game as well to be safe. I think Arizona will get the benefit of the doubt form the committe but with a loss they'd be 8-10 and no Pac 10 team has ever gotten in at even 9-9.

Last saturday Evie and I went for a stroll in the Tualatin Hills Nature Park near our home. I took a bunch of pictures and this one was my favorite. For anyone in the Portland area I highly recommend checking out this great park. I am only a 5 minute walk away from it but definitely don't go there as much as I should. It is a great oasis stuck in the middle of suburbia.

I Miss Maui!

Sunset Sail
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Well haven't posted here in awhile but in the last month a lot has happened. The Patriots blew the Superbowl and the Oregon Ducks went n the tank and are on life support for the NCAA Tournament. In much more significant news Emily and I got married on February 9th in Maui. We had an amazing wedding and a generally great time in Maui. The only problem was coming back home. I miss the sound of the waves gently crashing against the shore while I fall asleep, I miss the warm weather, I miss the laid-back lifestyle of Maui, I miss being able go swimming in the ocean, I miss the beach, I miss looking out my window and seeing whales, Lana'i and Molokia, I miss hanging out at Maui Brewing Company but most of all I miss not dealing with the daily grind of life on the mainland.

My Daughter is Pretty Dang Cute . . .

Evangeline
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

So we are off to Maui soon . . . the cab picks us up in 6 hours, the packing is done and we are ready for our next adventure as a family.

Off to Maui soon!

Close-up
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Emily and I are off to Maui on Tuesday for our wedding. We are so excited to have so many of our good friends and our family at the event. We are also very excited to enjoy some great weather which is not something you get to experience during an Oregon winner as well as having a long vacation from the daily grind of working life. I may not be able to get my blog out the next two weeks but then again maybe I will be able to write some sitting by the pool or beach in Kahana. I plan to take a zillion pictures so stay tuned and wish us the best of luck as we take another step on our journey together.