Bubble Watch

Where is Nemo?
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here is what we know: With USC beating Stanford they have sealed up a bid no matter what happens around the country between now and Sunday and that leaves 4 Pac 10 teams as locks. We also know that UCLA is getting the benefit of the doubt from the zebras who as usual have embarrased the Pac 10. We know that Arizona could have sealed a bid and killed Oregon had they won Saturday night and they didn't. We know that no Pac 10 team has ever made it at 9-9 but this year a 8-10 team might make it over two 9-9 teams who both swept said team. We know that Oregon could go back and look at any of 5 games this year and had they gotten a win in any of them there would be no further conversation needed. We know that Lisa Love could have done a better job at not scheduling such a cream puff OOC schedule at Arizona State this year. We know that Kevin O'Neil is no Lute Olson. We know the next week is going to be very interesting the Pac 10 could get as many as 7 teams in or just 4.

2007 Pape Jam

2007 Pape Jam
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll 1/14/2008

Not many changes this week in the rankings but the news of the week had to have been the ASU Sun Devils beating in-state nemesis Arizona on Wednesday. Led by James Harden’s 26 the Sun Devil’s find themselves at 3-0 in the conference with wins over Oregon and Arizona. The Devils now will go up the Bay Area and see if they can steal a road win in places where few road teams ever win, Haas Pavilion and Maples Pavilion. Oregon played two tough games against Stanford and Cal and got a home sweep of the Bay Area schools for the first time since 2002. This gives the Ducks a bit more wiggle room so getting swept on the road in Washington won’t kill their NCAA chances but they still will hope for a split. UCLA and WSU wasn’t close for a good portion of the game until the Cougs caught fire and hit 7 three-pointers in a row. Had this torrid shooting performance started earlier the Cougs would find themselves at the top of the heap in the conference and having the inside track at the 1 seed in the West. This week the Oregon schools go north, the Arizona schools go to the Bay Area and USC goes across town to Pauley Pavilion to take on the Bruins.

1. UCLA (1) – The Bruins could in all reality run away with this conference. UCLA has as good a shot as anyone to win the NCAA Tournament this year. (RPI 6 SOS 25) NCAA Lock
2. WSU (2) – The Cougs didn’t play their best game against UCLA but I actually feel better about them after their weekend in LA. The Cougs computer numbers are dragging a bit due to the poor OOC SOS but they still will finish the year a protected seed. Oregon has had WSU’s number for some time so you just know that Bennett and company has circled the home game versus the Ducks for sometime. (RPI 25 SOS 173) NCAA Lock
3. UO (4) – After the ASU game the Ducks looked like they were in danger of not going to the NCAA Tournament but now with three straight wins over quality opponents the Ducks have seen their computer numbers soar. The nice thing about beating Arizona and Stanford is that it means the Ducks can survive a sweep in the Washington schools and still be on target for a tourney bid. Nice to see Tajuan Porter back to form as well. (RPI 24 SOS 27) NCAA Lock
4. Stanford (3) – The Cardinal dominated the Beavs and played just well enough to lose against the Ducks. The depth is their front court will serve them well this year but they are an athlete short of being a team that can do a lot of damage in the postseason. (RPI 40 SOS 122) NCAA Lock
5. ASU (6) – James Harden may actually end up being the best freshman in a star-studded class of Pac 10 frosh. The Devils were fortunate that they avoided Jerryd Bayless in the match-up versus Arizona but the win was a major feather in the cap for Herb Sendek. The Devils will only make the NCAA tournament if they can show the committee they can win a road game or two, I like their chances against Cal much more than against Stanford but I foresee the Devils losing both games. (RPI 69 SOS 247) Bubble
6. UA (5) – The Cats have lost 2 straight conference games but I think you will see them become at worst the third best team in the conference down the stretch with the return of Bayless who put up 33 in a non-conference road game in Houston. (RPI 8 SOS 1) NCAA Lock
7. Cal (7) – The Bears got the road split they were looking for in Oregon but they can’t afford to lose anymore home games if they wish to keep their bleak NCAA hopes alive. Their series versus ASU will be a defacto playoff game for the likely sixth seed from the Pac 10 to the NCAA’s. The Bears can’t afford a home loss to ASU but won to UA won’t kill them. (RPI 52 SOS 60) Bubble
8. USC (8) – Looks like OJ Mayo will not get the chance to Carmeloize the Pac 10 as USC is going to have major problems getting to 10 wins in conference this year and the Mercer loss continues to drag down their RPI. (RPI 73 SOS 45) NIT
9. UW (9) – The Huskies have the look of a NIT team and have been hurt by the poor shooting performance by Ryan Appleby. The Huskies should take care of business against the Beavs and I expect the game versus Oregon to be highly contested. The Ducks have struggled in Seattle for many years. (RPI 106 SOS 38)
10. OSU (10) – The fan base has given up on Jay John and the Beavs have a legit shot to go 0-18. To have an RPI as high as they do in the top RPI league in the country takes some serious talent. Home losses to Tennesse Tech and Montana State can do that to you. (RPI 248 SOS 231)

Persistence

Persistence
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Hoops Power Poll

As college football is on its final day I now turn my attention to hoops. The Pac 10 has just completed its first week of regular season play which saw road teams play fairly successfully and was highlighted by Oregon beating Arizona in Tucson for the second consecutive year, a first in school history. The Cats were hurt by the absence of Jarred Bayless and really struggled on the defensive end. Kudos to Ernie Kent for shuffling the lineup a bit. It is clear to me that Tajuan Porter isn’t a viable point guard in the traditional sense of the word and the Ducks will be successful when other players are able to attack the rim and dish it out to Porter where he can be set for his shots and display the success he had as a freshman when Aaron Brooks who penetrate and dish out to Porter beyond the arc. In other games the Cougars fought out a W in a very physical game in Seattle against the Huskies. The Cougars were aided by a dreadful performance from the line by the Huskies in a game that was dominated by both defenses in the first half especially. I give credit to the Huskies for displaying toughness, they have been accused of lacking it in the past but in the end a win is a win and a loss is a loss. UCLA swept Cal and Stanford in what is likely going to be its hardest road weekend of the season while USC went 0-2 in the Bay Area. Finally ASU went to 2-0 for the first time the 1987/88 season. This week sees a matchup of the Arizona schools in Tempe on Wednesday while the Cats end their week with a non-conference game versus an 11-2 Houston team looking for a quality road win to augment their bubble possibilities. The Bay Area schools invade Oregon while the Washington schools match up versus the LA schools. For my NCAA Status feature I would like to comment that I am basing it off of whether they would be in if the NCAA tournament started the day I post each week so these will change a great deal from week to week. Oregon is now a lock in my book with the Arizona win but if they were to get swept at home this week they’d go off that line and down to bubble status.

Power Poll
1. UCLA – Went 2-0 on what could be their hardest road swing of the season. Now they will get the Washington schools at home. The battle versus WSU should be a candidate for Pac 10 game of the year but in the end I see the Bruins winning both games. NCAA status = Lock likely #1 seed (RPI 15 SOS 46).
2. WSU – Won a tough road game to a rival in typical WSU fashion but outside of playing in-state rival Gonzaga and Washington the only reasonable RPI team the Cougs have played this year has been Baylor. Oregon got bagged on by the national media for their OOC schedule but the Cougars was considerably worse and I think the Cougars are a bit overrated early ala Clemson last year. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 30 SOS 251)
3. Stanford – Couldn’t beat UCLA but not many teams are going to this year. I am expecting they sweep the Oregon schools on the road as long as the Ducks don’t go crazy from 3 point land. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 35 SOS 124)
4. Oregon – The Ducks went .500 in the desert which is what they were looking to accomplish but they also have to be disappointed in losing a late lead and falling to ASU. The Arizona win is a great resume builder but they need to keep the momentum up and hold serve at home. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 39 SOS 62)
5. Arizona – Definitely missing Bayless the Cats are also displaying their lack of effort on defense and with the improvement of ASU they can’t expect a cake walk on Wednesday. The Cats have superb computer numbers so as long as they win 10 Pac 10 games they are a lock. 9 wins is dicey buy they would probably still get the benefit of the doubt. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 12 SOS 1)
6. ASU – The Devils played a pathetic OOC schedule outside of Xavier (who had played an in-city battle versus Cinci two days prior and was unprepared and tired when ASU swamped them) so the game versus Oregon was their first real test of the year. James Harden is a fun player to watch. The Devils in all reality are a NIT team until they can prove they can win a home game. The stakes are high this week with UA in town but I think the Cats will have just enough to win. NCAA Status – Bubble (RPI 84 SOS 255)
7. Cal – The Bears beat USC which is what they were looking to do with the LA schools in town. The Bears are in the same boat as Oregon and ASU. Teams that played easy OOC schedules and need some resume building wins if they are going to go to the big dance. NCAA Status = Bubble (RPI 69 SOS 82)
8. USC – I think by season’s end USC will be a Top 20 team but now they are raw and undisciplined. They can’t afford any more road sweeps if they want to go the NCAA’s. NCAA Status = Bubble (RPI 72 SOS 58)
9. Washington – Played tough versus the Cougs but poor free throw shooting was their undoing. NCAA Status = NIT (RPI 105 SOS 66)
10. OSU – Quite possibly the worst high-major team coming in with a pathetic OOC SOS number of 334 and a RPI of 259. 0-18 is a possibility, reminds me of an early Paul Graham/late Kevin Eastman WSU team. The positive for the Beavers was that they played a great first half in Tucson. NCAA Status = When hell freezes over (RPI 259 SOS 300)