Bubble Watch

Where is Nemo?
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here is what we know: With USC beating Stanford they have sealed up a bid no matter what happens around the country between now and Sunday and that leaves 4 Pac 10 teams as locks. We also know that UCLA is getting the benefit of the doubt from the zebras who as usual have embarrased the Pac 10. We know that Arizona could have sealed a bid and killed Oregon had they won Saturday night and they didn't. We know that no Pac 10 team has ever made it at 9-9 but this year a 8-10 team might make it over two 9-9 teams who both swept said team. We know that Oregon could go back and look at any of 5 games this year and had they gotten a win in any of them there would be no further conversation needed. We know that Lisa Love could have done a better job at not scheduling such a cream puff OOC schedule at Arizona State this year. We know that Kevin O'Neil is no Lute Olson. We know the next week is going to be very interesting the Pac 10 could get as many as 7 teams in or just 4.

Week Ten Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

The second week in a row of Oregon hosting a Top 10 opponent ended with the same result for the Oregon faithful, a Duck win with the eyes of the nation upon them. Oregon now is in the position of being the sole school to control their own Rose Bowl destiny. At this point if Oregon wins out against Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State the worst the worst case scenario is the Ducks spending New Years in Pasadena. Oregon, led by Dennis Dixon, has handled all the attention in a very business-like manner and I think this will aide the team in avoiding any issues of over-confidence. The Ducks are pretty dinged up so the 10 days off they get before the big game versus the now hot Wildcats is important. USC returned to form in dominating Oregon State at the line of scrimmage. The Trojan offense is clearly not at the same level that we have come to expect under Pete Carroll but the defense is top notch. USC is still in play for a BCS bid, the Fiesta Bowl versus the Big 12 winner would be a nice destination as would the Rose Bowl if Oregon gets to play in New Orleans. In other games Cal slipped by a Washington State team that lacked James Tardy at running back. Cal it appears is just playing the year out ala the 2006 Ducks. Washington went out and won a game for the first time since early September. Who knows what the make out of Stanford but the Dawgs could conceivably rally to 6-6 with the schedule they have remaining though getting past Oregon State in Corvallis would be pretty daunting. Finally Arizona beat UCLA in the battle of which coach will survive November. Karl Dorrell is clearly done at UCLA no matter what happens the rest of the year. Mike Stoops is likely gone as well but if he were to knock off Oregon and ASU to end the season at 6-6 you never know. For some reason Arizona just seems to play a whole lot better in November than any other month of the year. The Ducks and Devils need to be on upset watch. Kudos to the Midshipmen of Navy for beating Notre Dame.

1. UO (1) – With ESPN Gameday in town and a national audience watching the Ducks delivered. The Heisman is Dennis Dixon’s to lose. The Ducks get 10 day to prepare for the surging offense of the Wildcats in what you know will be a hard hitting game.
2. USC (3) – Nice rebound win versus the Beavers. USC still can play for a BCS bid but the Pac 10 championship is all but out of the question.
3. ASU (2) – The Sun Devils were perhaps just not tested enough to play the caliber of team as Oregon at this point in the year. ASU needs to rebound against UCLA this week if they hope to have a hot at a BCS at-large bid
4. OSU (4) – Got completely shut down in LA but they should get back on track against UW in a game that gets them the needed 6 wins for bowl eligibility.
5. UA (7) – Back to back wins after the disaster of losing to Stanford at home. Surviving this year will be tough for Stoops but the cupboard won’t be bare for whoever is coach next year. I expect they will give Oregon quite the battle.
6. Cal (6) At this point this team will only win games against teams they have way more talent then, they gave up a lot of yards in the air to Brink and the Cougs and had a sub-par offensive performance, still Cal should be considered up with ASU and USC the team to beat in 2008 with a senior QB in Longshore.
7. UCLA (5) – Though they have been injury depleted this year UCLA is among the biggest disappointments nationally (Notre Dame, Louisville and Nebraska are up there as well).
8. UW (10) – Got off the snide with it’s first win off the year down on the Farm. Will it be enough to save Willingham?
9. WSU (9) – Played tough in a loss in Berkeley. Doba and company could conceivably rally to get to 6 wins, that would be a great accomplishment.
10. Stanford (8) For some reason Stanford is much better on the road than at home.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week Nine Review

The unit that the media wasn’t talking about, the Oregon defense, was the star of the show in the Oregon/USC battle at Autzen Stadium. For those that watched the game you could tell that Oregon beating USC was not a fluke, for all of the future NFL talent on the Trojan side of the ball the Ducks were and are the better team. USC now finds itself at a crossroads that they haven’t seen since 2002. Pete Carroll chained the culture at USC but the question remains of whether he can get his team to rally or whether USC will split apart at the seams when the going has gotten tough which was the downfall of Paul Hackett. Realistically the Trojans, pending a complete collapse by Oregon are playing for a BCS at large bid at best at and with a very tough slate of upcoming games things won’t be easy. USC is now only 6-4 in its last 10 Pac 10 games and of those wins only two of those were against teams with winning records. Just like Miami, Nebraska and Florida State before them USC has seen their reign over a conference end. All four schools raised the bar in their conference won, national championships and completely dominated conference opponents over a multi-year stretch only to be undone by having to face everyone’s best shot every week and probably getting just a bit too comfortable in their environs to put in all the work that is needed to win championships. The schools I listed above all not returned to championship form the question begs if USC can reverse that and whether Pete Carroll sticks around to see it. Oregon it seems has now returned itself to the position they were in 2001, playing very meaningful games in November. In other news ASU drove a final steak in to the Cal Bears who have now experienced the first three game losing streak by a Jeff Tedford coached team since he was a coordinator at Fresno State. ASU now travels, along with College Gameday, to the third “game of the year” at Autzen Stadium this season. Kudos to the WSU Cougars who beat an undefeated in Pac 10 play UCLA squad in Pullman. UCLA was playing on borrowed time and the Cougs are a better team than their record shows. Will it save Bill Doba, not bloody likely but it was nice to see Doba and Brink get a quality home win in their final season. Oregon State put them-selves in to position to make a bowl game and someway, somehow Mike Stoops lives to see another day with an amazing comeback win in Seattle to send the Dawgs to their sixth straight loss.

1. UO (1) – I predicted that Oregon would win this game only if they scored 32 points or more, turned out I was wrong. The Ducks picked a great day to have their defense play an A++ game. Autzen has never been louder and the Ducks are the talk of the nation. With a much higher SOS than LSU you wonder how long the Ducks will be held behind the Bayou Bengals in the human portion of the BCS poll. LSU at best will face a 2 loss team in the SEC Championship game. Of course all of this is mute if Oregon and LSU can’t win out. Game of the Year Number 3 at Autzen comes next week and it is full of great story lines. I predict the Ducks win by 10 and Dennis Erickson goes to 0-5 in Autzen Stadium.
2. ASU (2) – ASU got down early but put on another spectacular second half performance in putting a final nail in Cal’s once storybook season. Cal was clearly jinxed by its fans chanting “Were #1” after seeing the LSU-Kentucky score. The Sun Devils face their first true road test of the year in the most hostile of environments now.
3. USC (3) – I can’t question Carroll’s decision to start Matt Sanchez, had John David Kosar started he would have been sacked 7 times by the speedy Oregon defense. Sanchez forced a few throws and it cost him. What I can question Carroll for is the slow hitting play call on the 4th and 1 on his first drive, not using enough of Joe McKnight in general and his calling a timeout with 8 seconds left in the game. For those with long memories Carroll in 2003 at Autzen Stadium called the Oregon staff classless for not pulling their starters when USC put in their backups and in turn Oregon pulled within 11 at the end of the game. Well considering the Ducks were still at the time in contention for a Pac 10 title and receiving votes in the Top 25 why would they not keep trying to win. Where does it say in the rule books that a team that is being beaten badly should stop trying to not show up the team that is beating them. Typical Trojan arrogance. Where that rant from Pete Carroll came from I have no idea but it proved all I need to know about Mr F You. He seems to think his team deserves special consideration and is just allowed to do things no one else can. Too bad your false reality is over jerk. Have fun in El Paso you classless piece of dung.
4. OSU (5) – The Beavs top notch front seven shut down another teams running game and in the process put themselves in great position to ensure a bowl game this year. Mike Riley is silently waiting in the wings for what could be the Civil War of all Civil Wars. Beating USC without Yvensen Bernard in the Coliseum seems all but impossible but I can’t discount the mental state of Trojans right now. A Beaver win is a possibility though highly unlikely. I bet that the Trojans have 30 no shows after all the jumping off the bandwagon occurs by USC “fans”.
5. UCLA (4) – Putrid performance on the Palouse which was aided by yet again more injuries to the UCLA offense. Had this team been healthy all year they might be undefeated right now. At 5-3 with a road game at Arizona, and match-ups versus ASU, Oregon and USC still on the horizon winning 7 games and ensuring a bowl game doesn’t look so hot in Westwood right now. Karl Dorrell needs 7 wins to stay as coach I think.
6. Cal (6) – Cal’s collapse is very reminiscent of the 2002 Oregon Ducks. Look out below but thankfully for them they play the Cougars at home and they should be able to win by 30 to at least for a week stop the bleeding.
7. UA (9) – How bad is Washington’s defense to allow Wily Tuitama to go for over 500 yards passing? Mike Stoops is like Michael Myers you think you have seen the end of him and he just keeps coming back. They now get a very winnable game versus UCLA at home. Arizona can’t win more than 6 games this year but they will have an effect on who wins the Pac 10 since they play the three remaining squads with one conference losses to end the season.
8. Stanford (7) – Did absolutely nothing in Corvallis last weekend but get good news in that they get to play the conference’s worst defense (Washington) in a game that should be a shootout.
9. WSU (10) – The Cougs got a Pac 10 win and ruined the prefect conference record of UCLA as was predicted in this column. The winning streak will end at 1 as they will be cannon fodder for a Cal team that needs to awake from their nightmarish October.
10. UW (8) – I like coach Willingham I want to see him stay at Washington to get a chance to see what Jake Locker can do for him over the next three years however I think that the guy will have major problems surviving this season. Could Jim Mora Jr be the Husky coach next season? This may be the worst defense ever seen in Washington football history.