Bubble Watch

Where is Nemo?
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here is what we know: With USC beating Stanford they have sealed up a bid no matter what happens around the country between now and Sunday and that leaves 4 Pac 10 teams as locks. We also know that UCLA is getting the benefit of the doubt from the zebras who as usual have embarrased the Pac 10. We know that Arizona could have sealed a bid and killed Oregon had they won Saturday night and they didn't. We know that no Pac 10 team has ever made it at 9-9 but this year a 8-10 team might make it over two 9-9 teams who both swept said team. We know that Oregon could go back and look at any of 5 games this year and had they gotten a win in any of them there would be no further conversation needed. We know that Lisa Love could have done a better job at not scheduling such a cream puff OOC schedule at Arizona State this year. We know that Kevin O'Neil is no Lute Olson. We know the next week is going to be very interesting the Pac 10 could get as many as 7 teams in or just 4.

Week 11 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Note: I wrote this on Monday before the events of Thursday's Oregon/Arizona game. My work internet now blocks Blogspot and my time at home during the week is pretty limited so I was late in posting this.

Oregon was the big winner this week and they didn’t even play. Thanks to Illinois knocking off an untested Ohio State squad Oregon slid in to the #2 spot in the BCS. However even if they win out they are not assured a spot in the Big Game in New Orleans as the winner of the Big 12 Championship game may jump Oregon. In other news the winner of the ASU/USC game on Thanksgiving has put themselves in great position to get to a BCS game likely either the Rose or Fiesta Bowl depending on where Oregon ends up. I want to make the point to say that I was very happy to see Jake Locker come back form that scary situation with a clean bill of health. The kid is a hero who will lead Washington back to respectability of he gets a surrounding cast. Not sure if Ty Willingham will be the guy who gets to lead him to that point however. As much criticism as Gordon Reice received last year for the Oklahoma/Oregon call I have to say that the botched call in the OSU/UW was even worse though it didn’t effect the outcome of the game. At worst case the ball should have been called dead at the 6 inch line, my opinion was that Bernard scored, not sure how they called it a fumble and how the play wasn’t reviewed. USC and ASU won hard fought games and WSU maintained a glimmer of hope for a bowl with a win over Stanford.

1. UO (1) – The Ducks can see the light at the end of the tunnel but need to keep their eye on the prize. Simply winning out may not be enough for the Ducks if Kansas wins out, if Oklahoma wins out the Ducks need to show some serious style points. Oregon faces Zona at the worst possible time in that they face a team on a hot streak who can throw the ball down the field, play a night game in the desert which is always a gamble and face the whole #2 and Thursday night curse. All in all I think the Ducks still win by 10 but this was should be a memorable game.
2. USC (2) – USC seems to have its power running game back, where was it against Oregon however? The play at ASU on Thanksgiving in what amounts to a BCS playoff game.
3. ASU (3) – Did enough to beat UCLA but I would have expected a larger win all things considered. Depending on how the year ends ASU could find itself as low as the Sun Bowl or as high as the Fiesta or Rose Bowl.
4. OSU (4) – Weird game that OSU frankly should have won by 20 but was much closer due to some bad calls by the refs, an emotional effort by UW after Jake Locker and a breakdown in the Beaver pass defense mainly caused by 3 key secondary members being kicked out of the game. I think the Pac 10 gave the Beavs some justice by not suspending the players for the first half of the WSU game.
5. Cal (6) – Played USC tough but just didn’t have enough. This team has dropped quicker than almost any team in memory from a high national ranking. At this point probably can’t hope for anything better than the Sun Bowl.
6. UA (5) – Still Bowl eligible for one more night. Stoops is safe from what reports are saying but I am not so sure.
7. UCLA (7) – Stung by injuries more than any team in the country I thought they played pretty tough against ASU. I think this is Karl Dorrell’s swan song, probably a great time for a bye week to give them time to prepare for Oregon.
8. WSU (9) – Once giving up for dead WSU is now a home win against OSU and a road win in Seattle from getting 6 wins, which this year, unlike last will get the Cougars in to a bowl game. The Beavs likely not having Yvensen Bernard and what should be dicey weather should help out the Cougars.
9. UW (8) – Good to see Jake Locker okay, Carl Bonnell actually played pretty well in relief but until this team gets a solid running back they are going to have problems.
10. Stanford (10) – Decimated by injuries they get a needed bye week before playing Notre Dame and Cal to end the year. Stanford could be a bowl team next year

Tourney Time

Some thoughts on the 2006-2007 Oregon Ducks, the NCAA tournament and a sprinkling of randomness.

I’ve never been one to claim that Ernie Kent is the best thing since sliced bread. I’ve been continually frustrated with his inability to recruit a decent big man, his failures in close games and his, if you believe the rumors, hypocritical personal life while he claims the moral superiority of being a “good Christian” (not that this is anything new from what we have from men in positions of power). However, I think Ernie deserves a boat load of credit for this year’s run, I think the man took some personal inventory, took some major risks like signing Tajuan Porter and going to a small-ball line, didn’t play the blame game (paging Mike Bellotti you have a call on line 1) as much and became more human in the process to his players. This had to have rubbed off on the players a bit. The victories in the tournament may not have been as impressive as the 2002 run however, the talent level on this team is not at the same level and Oregon gave Florida a better game in 2007 than they gave Kansas in 2002. I have thought for well over a year that 2007 would be the end of the Kent era, whether that be from firing (Pat Kilkenny just politically can’t do that right now I think) or Kent leaving on his own to take a “better” job. I don’t think that will happen now. I think he will be here another two years at least but the bar has been raised again and not going back to the NCAA’s in the next two years could mean the Pat’s man Mark Few is brought in.
On another topic I have to mention that I was quite thrilled with the Duck’s run to the Elite 8. The Ducks played 4 very different teams and played all of them with pride, character and brought respect to Oregon from fans across the country. Many Oregon fans were a bit upset with the officials in the Florida game. I can see where they are coming from, on many of the offensive boards the Gators got, (Richard did this at least 3 times) there was contact between the shorter Duck defender and the taller Gator. One could say that the contact was the Gator pushing off, another view, which the officials took it that it was the Oregon player being out of position and forcing the contact. I thought the refs were full of excrement on at least three of these calls but at least they called them the same way every-time and what I most want from a ref is a consistent call. If something is a foul in the first minute it should be a foul in the last minute, that was the case in the game. That Oregon was in a deficit in fouls was not a surprise they were facing a tall and athletic team however the disparity reminded me of the 1995 Western Conference finals where in Game 7 the Sonics had something like a 73-12 disadvantage in foul shots over the course of the game and still almost won the game (this performance as well as the travesty of the final four games of the Mavs-Heat series last year is all the proof I need to have to show that the NBA under David Stern does what they can to influence who wins games, they don’t outright fix games but they sure make sure that refs they select fit the situation they want to see, ie extending series, having the more “marketable” team win, and showing up Mark Cuban). Refs arguably have more impact on basketball than any other major team sport due to the differences in interpretation of fouls and the speed of the action. It seems to me that in virtually every game this tournament the higher seeded team got the benefit of the doubt from the officials. Maybe that is the way it should be, who knows? This tournament was great in-part because the higher seeds advanced but try to tell that to Vanderbilt or Xavier both of who you could say pissed away surefire wins with their own foolish play down but also could argue that had a key call in the final seconds been called accurately would have advanced on to the next round.
Finally a personal note. Emily and I put in an offer to buy a house this week. If all goes well with the inspection we should be able to move in at the end of April. It is much bigger and I will have my own space to do my own thing from time to time which I really need. Our current abode is way to small for 3 people, letting alone two have any space, so this is a great thing.