Quick Tourney Takes

Commonwealth Lake Park
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

We were at the coast Saturday night and Sunday and I kept my phone off so just catching up with the brackets via the DVR. A few first impressions. Overall I have no problem with anyone being left out of the field, the bubble sucked Va Tech only has themselves to blame with such a crud OOC SOS , same for Miss State. Illinois probably should have gotten in over Utah State, too bad they lost that Ohio State game but I shed no tears with their 75 RPI. I don't get too hyped up about seedings since many teams are moved up and down due to conference match-ups not till the Elite 8 ideally and the pod system. Probably worst seedings were Cal, Notre Dame and Texas. Does anyone right now consider Texas one of the 34 best teams right now? Probably not but with the great early start hard to keep them out.

Hardest road to the Final Four for a 1: Easy answer is Kansas, would have to beat the Gtown/Ohio State winner in the Elite most likely and a possible Mich St in the Sweet 16. On the bottom of the bracket are OSU and the Vols two teams that KU lost too.

Easiest route to the Final Four: Kentucky, shouldn't be challenged till the likely match-up versus West Virginia in the 8 though West Virginia is a really tough out if they match-up.

Most likely 12-5 upset: UTEP over Butler, Butler like Gonzaga before them has gotten to the point where they have started to get overseeded. Not their fault but they don't get to play a high level schedule the last 20 games of the year due to their conference. Butler is much more dangerous in the 7 10 or 11 spot. Hate to see a mid-major/mid major first round game. Been a trend the last 3 years or so.

Best chance for a non 1/2 seed to make the Final Four: Pitt, they've beaten some really good teams and are in a region they can win. If not Pitt then Georgetown and Baylor would be the best chances.

Sweet 16 game I want to see: Nova vs Baylor - I think the winner of this one can take down Duke, good matchup for Baylor who has the size to give Nova fits.

Final Four: Kansas, Pitt, Kentucky, Nova

Champ game: Kansas over Kentucky

2007 Pape Jam

2007 Pape Jam
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll 1/14/2008

Not many changes this week in the rankings but the news of the week had to have been the ASU Sun Devils beating in-state nemesis Arizona on Wednesday. Led by James Harden’s 26 the Sun Devil’s find themselves at 3-0 in the conference with wins over Oregon and Arizona. The Devils now will go up the Bay Area and see if they can steal a road win in places where few road teams ever win, Haas Pavilion and Maples Pavilion. Oregon played two tough games against Stanford and Cal and got a home sweep of the Bay Area schools for the first time since 2002. This gives the Ducks a bit more wiggle room so getting swept on the road in Washington won’t kill their NCAA chances but they still will hope for a split. UCLA and WSU wasn’t close for a good portion of the game until the Cougs caught fire and hit 7 three-pointers in a row. Had this torrid shooting performance started earlier the Cougs would find themselves at the top of the heap in the conference and having the inside track at the 1 seed in the West. This week the Oregon schools go north, the Arizona schools go to the Bay Area and USC goes across town to Pauley Pavilion to take on the Bruins.

1. UCLA (1) – The Bruins could in all reality run away with this conference. UCLA has as good a shot as anyone to win the NCAA Tournament this year. (RPI 6 SOS 25) NCAA Lock
2. WSU (2) – The Cougs didn’t play their best game against UCLA but I actually feel better about them after their weekend in LA. The Cougs computer numbers are dragging a bit due to the poor OOC SOS but they still will finish the year a protected seed. Oregon has had WSU’s number for some time so you just know that Bennett and company has circled the home game versus the Ducks for sometime. (RPI 25 SOS 173) NCAA Lock
3. UO (4) – After the ASU game the Ducks looked like they were in danger of not going to the NCAA Tournament but now with three straight wins over quality opponents the Ducks have seen their computer numbers soar. The nice thing about beating Arizona and Stanford is that it means the Ducks can survive a sweep in the Washington schools and still be on target for a tourney bid. Nice to see Tajuan Porter back to form as well. (RPI 24 SOS 27) NCAA Lock
4. Stanford (3) – The Cardinal dominated the Beavs and played just well enough to lose against the Ducks. The depth is their front court will serve them well this year but they are an athlete short of being a team that can do a lot of damage in the postseason. (RPI 40 SOS 122) NCAA Lock
5. ASU (6) – James Harden may actually end up being the best freshman in a star-studded class of Pac 10 frosh. The Devils were fortunate that they avoided Jerryd Bayless in the match-up versus Arizona but the win was a major feather in the cap for Herb Sendek. The Devils will only make the NCAA tournament if they can show the committee they can win a road game or two, I like their chances against Cal much more than against Stanford but I foresee the Devils losing both games. (RPI 69 SOS 247) Bubble
6. UA (5) – The Cats have lost 2 straight conference games but I think you will see them become at worst the third best team in the conference down the stretch with the return of Bayless who put up 33 in a non-conference road game in Houston. (RPI 8 SOS 1) NCAA Lock
7. Cal (7) – The Bears got the road split they were looking for in Oregon but they can’t afford to lose anymore home games if they wish to keep their bleak NCAA hopes alive. Their series versus ASU will be a defacto playoff game for the likely sixth seed from the Pac 10 to the NCAA’s. The Bears can’t afford a home loss to ASU but won to UA won’t kill them. (RPI 52 SOS 60) Bubble
8. USC (8) – Looks like OJ Mayo will not get the chance to Carmeloize the Pac 10 as USC is going to have major problems getting to 10 wins in conference this year and the Mercer loss continues to drag down their RPI. (RPI 73 SOS 45) NIT
9. UW (9) – The Huskies have the look of a NIT team and have been hurt by the poor shooting performance by Ryan Appleby. The Huskies should take care of business against the Beavs and I expect the game versus Oregon to be highly contested. The Ducks have struggled in Seattle for many years. (RPI 106 SOS 38)
10. OSU (10) – The fan base has given up on Jay John and the Beavs have a legit shot to go 0-18. To have an RPI as high as they do in the top RPI league in the country takes some serious talent. Home losses to Tennesse Tech and Montana State can do that to you. (RPI 248 SOS 231)

Persistence

Persistence
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Hoops Power Poll

As college football is on its final day I now turn my attention to hoops. The Pac 10 has just completed its first week of regular season play which saw road teams play fairly successfully and was highlighted by Oregon beating Arizona in Tucson for the second consecutive year, a first in school history. The Cats were hurt by the absence of Jarred Bayless and really struggled on the defensive end. Kudos to Ernie Kent for shuffling the lineup a bit. It is clear to me that Tajuan Porter isn’t a viable point guard in the traditional sense of the word and the Ducks will be successful when other players are able to attack the rim and dish it out to Porter where he can be set for his shots and display the success he had as a freshman when Aaron Brooks who penetrate and dish out to Porter beyond the arc. In other games the Cougars fought out a W in a very physical game in Seattle against the Huskies. The Cougars were aided by a dreadful performance from the line by the Huskies in a game that was dominated by both defenses in the first half especially. I give credit to the Huskies for displaying toughness, they have been accused of lacking it in the past but in the end a win is a win and a loss is a loss. UCLA swept Cal and Stanford in what is likely going to be its hardest road weekend of the season while USC went 0-2 in the Bay Area. Finally ASU went to 2-0 for the first time the 1987/88 season. This week sees a matchup of the Arizona schools in Tempe on Wednesday while the Cats end their week with a non-conference game versus an 11-2 Houston team looking for a quality road win to augment their bubble possibilities. The Bay Area schools invade Oregon while the Washington schools match up versus the LA schools. For my NCAA Status feature I would like to comment that I am basing it off of whether they would be in if the NCAA tournament started the day I post each week so these will change a great deal from week to week. Oregon is now a lock in my book with the Arizona win but if they were to get swept at home this week they’d go off that line and down to bubble status.

Power Poll
1. UCLA – Went 2-0 on what could be their hardest road swing of the season. Now they will get the Washington schools at home. The battle versus WSU should be a candidate for Pac 10 game of the year but in the end I see the Bruins winning both games. NCAA status = Lock likely #1 seed (RPI 15 SOS 46).
2. WSU – Won a tough road game to a rival in typical WSU fashion but outside of playing in-state rival Gonzaga and Washington the only reasonable RPI team the Cougs have played this year has been Baylor. Oregon got bagged on by the national media for their OOC schedule but the Cougars was considerably worse and I think the Cougars are a bit overrated early ala Clemson last year. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 30 SOS 251)
3. Stanford – Couldn’t beat UCLA but not many teams are going to this year. I am expecting they sweep the Oregon schools on the road as long as the Ducks don’t go crazy from 3 point land. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 35 SOS 124)
4. Oregon – The Ducks went .500 in the desert which is what they were looking to accomplish but they also have to be disappointed in losing a late lead and falling to ASU. The Arizona win is a great resume builder but they need to keep the momentum up and hold serve at home. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 39 SOS 62)
5. Arizona – Definitely missing Bayless the Cats are also displaying their lack of effort on defense and with the improvement of ASU they can’t expect a cake walk on Wednesday. The Cats have superb computer numbers so as long as they win 10 Pac 10 games they are a lock. 9 wins is dicey buy they would probably still get the benefit of the doubt. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 12 SOS 1)
6. ASU – The Devils played a pathetic OOC schedule outside of Xavier (who had played an in-city battle versus Cinci two days prior and was unprepared and tired when ASU swamped them) so the game versus Oregon was their first real test of the year. James Harden is a fun player to watch. The Devils in all reality are a NIT team until they can prove they can win a home game. The stakes are high this week with UA in town but I think the Cats will have just enough to win. NCAA Status – Bubble (RPI 84 SOS 255)
7. Cal – The Bears beat USC which is what they were looking to do with the LA schools in town. The Bears are in the same boat as Oregon and ASU. Teams that played easy OOC schedules and need some resume building wins if they are going to go to the big dance. NCAA Status = Bubble (RPI 69 SOS 82)
8. USC – I think by season’s end USC will be a Top 20 team but now they are raw and undisciplined. They can’t afford any more road sweeps if they want to go the NCAA’s. NCAA Status = Bubble (RPI 72 SOS 58)
9. Washington – Played tough versus the Cougs but poor free throw shooting was their undoing. NCAA Status = NIT (RPI 105 SOS 66)
10. OSU – Quite possibly the worst high-major team coming in with a pathetic OOC SOS number of 334 and a RPI of 259. 0-18 is a possibility, reminds me of an early Paul Graham/late Kevin Eastman WSU team. The positive for the Beavers was that they played a great first half in Tucson. NCAA Status = When hell freezes over (RPI 259 SOS 300)

Tourney Time

Some thoughts on the 2006-2007 Oregon Ducks, the NCAA tournament and a sprinkling of randomness.

I’ve never been one to claim that Ernie Kent is the best thing since sliced bread. I’ve been continually frustrated with his inability to recruit a decent big man, his failures in close games and his, if you believe the rumors, hypocritical personal life while he claims the moral superiority of being a “good Christian” (not that this is anything new from what we have from men in positions of power). However, I think Ernie deserves a boat load of credit for this year’s run, I think the man took some personal inventory, took some major risks like signing Tajuan Porter and going to a small-ball line, didn’t play the blame game (paging Mike Bellotti you have a call on line 1) as much and became more human in the process to his players. This had to have rubbed off on the players a bit. The victories in the tournament may not have been as impressive as the 2002 run however, the talent level on this team is not at the same level and Oregon gave Florida a better game in 2007 than they gave Kansas in 2002. I have thought for well over a year that 2007 would be the end of the Kent era, whether that be from firing (Pat Kilkenny just politically can’t do that right now I think) or Kent leaving on his own to take a “better” job. I don’t think that will happen now. I think he will be here another two years at least but the bar has been raised again and not going back to the NCAA’s in the next two years could mean the Pat’s man Mark Few is brought in.
On another topic I have to mention that I was quite thrilled with the Duck’s run to the Elite 8. The Ducks played 4 very different teams and played all of them with pride, character and brought respect to Oregon from fans across the country. Many Oregon fans were a bit upset with the officials in the Florida game. I can see where they are coming from, on many of the offensive boards the Gators got, (Richard did this at least 3 times) there was contact between the shorter Duck defender and the taller Gator. One could say that the contact was the Gator pushing off, another view, which the officials took it that it was the Oregon player being out of position and forcing the contact. I thought the refs were full of excrement on at least three of these calls but at least they called them the same way every-time and what I most want from a ref is a consistent call. If something is a foul in the first minute it should be a foul in the last minute, that was the case in the game. That Oregon was in a deficit in fouls was not a surprise they were facing a tall and athletic team however the disparity reminded me of the 1995 Western Conference finals where in Game 7 the Sonics had something like a 73-12 disadvantage in foul shots over the course of the game and still almost won the game (this performance as well as the travesty of the final four games of the Mavs-Heat series last year is all the proof I need to have to show that the NBA under David Stern does what they can to influence who wins games, they don’t outright fix games but they sure make sure that refs they select fit the situation they want to see, ie extending series, having the more “marketable” team win, and showing up Mark Cuban). Refs arguably have more impact on basketball than any other major team sport due to the differences in interpretation of fouls and the speed of the action. It seems to me that in virtually every game this tournament the higher seeded team got the benefit of the doubt from the officials. Maybe that is the way it should be, who knows? This tournament was great in-part because the higher seeds advanced but try to tell that to Vanderbilt or Xavier both of who you could say pissed away surefire wins with their own foolish play down but also could argue that had a key call in the final seconds been called accurately would have advanced on to the next round.
Finally a personal note. Emily and I put in an offer to buy a house this week. If all goes well with the inspection we should be able to move in at the end of April. It is much bigger and I will have my own space to do my own thing from time to time which I really need. Our current abode is way to small for 3 people, letting alone two have any space, so this is a great thing.

The Littlest Duck

The Littlest Duck
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

This is Evie in her Duck top. The first time she has somewhat fit in to it. She wore it for the Oregon-Winthrop game which the Ducks thankfully won. Getting 3 teams to the Sweet 16 is pretty good for the Pac 10 and if the Cougs did about all you can do but not win against Vanderbilt. This has been an odd tournament, Friday and Satruday had a good share of great games highlighted by Xavier-Ohio State and WSU-Vanderbilt but thursday and Sunday were rahter blase outside of the Duke-VCU game and UNLV-Wisconsin. I think Oregon is in a great spot to get to the Elite 8 and have been fortunate to had the easiest route to the Elite 8 of any team in the tournament in terms of opponent seeding.

NCAA Tournament Day One

Wow I've pretty much watched the first two days of the NCAA tournament yearly going back to about 1986 and I can't recall a more boring first session of games as the early games have been today. I guess the tourney seeded well but it makes for a boring day. Round one going to seed will likely mean a ton of upsets in round 2 because there will be so few low seeds left. Favorites going 8 for 8 and only one game finished with a margin of under 10. Interestingly we are able to wtach games on 2 channels on our Comcast Digital Cable (Emily figured it out that channel 306 is something like local CBS 2) so I am flipping back between Duke/VCU and Ohio State/CCSU. I picked VCU as one of my upsets but I think the refs are doing whatever they can to ensure Duke wins this one. I've seen 3 awful calls that have bailed out Duke, call it a a conspiracy or don't but Duke gets more calls than any other team in the country. I figure David Stern is behind it (just kidding commish!). Well Duke has just gone on a 7-0 run to make this a 9 point game, with UCLA and Ohio State rolling looks like the only chance for an "upset" is Mich St over Marquette (zero points in the first ten minutes by the way and no McNeil due to his thumb injury). Hopefully the night ends with some good games.

March Madness

Well it has been a bit of time since I last posted here. Home life has been great and Evie is really starting to grow and become aware. You can see the changes daily, she is quite mature for only being 10 weeks old. The job has gotten quite a bit busy with some folks moving on some I am trying to survive and thrive in that the best I can. When I last posted Ernie Kent and the Ducks were in a free fall. Nice to see what a home sweep of the Northwest schools can do for a team but even then I think that prior to the Pac 10 tournament Oregon looked liked a likely 7 or 8 seed. Fast forward three games and the Ducks and their hot shooting find themselves a 3 seed in the easiest bracket in the country and have a great line to get to the Elite 8. Oregon’s domination of the rest of the Pac 10 in the tournament was unprecedented though they sure lucked out without having to face UCLA. The Ducks have regained their sea legs and swagger and with a Friday game in Spokane should be quite well rested before they play Miami and then the winner of Notre Dame/Winthrop. I don’t think the Ducks could have asked for a better position than they got. I don’t foresee an issue with Miami and I’d actually rather face Notre Dame than Winthrop who has the better front court. Wisconsin is a vulnerable 2 seed though a better team than Memphis in my opinion. If someone like an Arizona or Maryland can knock off Florida (who I think the Ducks would just not match up to very well) you can’t discount Oregon actually making a Final Four. Had Oregon lost to WSU at home and then to Arizona in the tourney you have to think they would have been sweating out Selection Sunday just like Stanford did. Kudos to the Committee for rewarding dominant play in the tournament, both from Oregon but also for schools like UNC, Kansas and Florida. There is no doubt that UCLA losing to Cal played themselves out of the #1 spot in the West. Thankfully for the Bruins they didn’t get shipped out of California and I still like their chances to get back to the Final Four. I’d be surprised to see any other Pac 10 teams outside of UCLA and Oregon in the Elite 8 and I think that WSU is particularly vulnerable to being the first 3 seed knocked out.

Duck's Slide

After starting the year with quite a bang the Oregon Ducks have taken somewhat of a slide the last two and a half weeks. Some around the country may be suprised about this but I am not. Oregon really isn't that much better of a team this year than they were last year, and last year they were just not as bad as it appeared. College basketball these days is top heavy with about 10 teams having a legit shot to win a national championship. Then there is a second group of teams who are ranked anywhere from in the Top Ten to not even on the map but in terms of skill and talent they are in a vast middling of squads who may either find themselves in the NCAAs, NIT or staying at home. The Oregon Ducks of 2005/2006 finished 9th in the Pac 10 and just short of .500 for the season. They, just as this year, played many close games, in fact they were 0-8 last year in games decided by one basket. Fast forward to 2006/2007 and the Ducks started out fast in their "close games" managed to defeat all but USC in the first half of the season. Each of these games in both years really came down to a final shot, in 05/06 the Ducks had no luck, in 06/07 they seemed to be having all the luck. I think part of what has been shown with Oregon the second half of the season has been what should be the norm. Average high major teams will win about 50% of their games against similar competition and now the Ducks are being pulled back to the pack. My pre-season thoughts on Oregon the last two years has been this is a bubble team that will make or not make the tournament based on the outcome of a few games. They should still make the tournament but they are not the 2 or 3 seed that many saw a few weeks ago. As Dennis Green so eloquently said "They are what we thought they were!"

So the last 6 months I have become a Flickr addict! I think it has helped my photography and it is a great way to kill time!

Things to do in Pullman when you are dead . . .

Well there isn't much to do in Pullman outside of getting blasted at Shakers or The Coug. For those who watched it Oregon - WSU ended up being one of the most exciting games of the year in the Pac 10. It was a pretty remarkable comeback win for Oregon and to acheive it they needed to come back from 8 down quite late in the contest. Aaron Brooks banking in of a three after the Ducks had missed two shot and gotten the o-board both times dropped the defecit from 5 to 2. Oregon then got another stop on defense and ran a pretty ugly set before Maarty Leunen got hacked with all but no time left. Clutch free-throws by Maarty tied and then the Ducks should have run away with in OT but the heroicvs of Derrick Low made it close. The Coogs had three shots to tie it up and take it to a second OT but they didn't fall. Can't wait fot the rematch down in Eugene. This week Oregon gets a chance to put a headlock on the conference championship if they can beat UCLA in Pauley Pavilion. I think UCLA beats the Ducks but the Ducks beat USC keeping Oregon in second. Stanford is clearly improving greatly, after watching them play Oregon tough at Mac Court I had a feeling that Stanford would put up a nice second half of the season run and play thmeselves in to the NCAA's. The sweep of the LA schools puts that as a great possibility and put some pressure on USC to stay in the field. I'd officially drop Cal from the NCAA talk, they will join UW in the NIT.

Oregon Washington

It is has nothing to do with hoops but Lamar Latrell always makes me laugh. How did that guy make it in to Cobra Kai. Has he been in anything else outside of any of the painfully bad Nerds sequels? Might have to check Imdb on that.

Well Oregon had a late run to get the game almost tied but then there was just too mcuch size and Justin Dentmon down the stretch and the Dawgs pulled away. Dentmon choose a great night to have a have a career day. It seems that Oregon had the scoring to win this game but were killed on the defeonsive boards and Tajuan Porter was exposed defensively by Dentmon. The Ducks may have missed Aaron Brooks more on the defensive side of the ball. I thought Ray Schaefer gave Oregon some pretty good minutes and that not having Zahn to spell Maarty hurt the Ducks a bit but had he been out there I don't think it would have meant Oregon would have won.

There has been a lot of crowing from USC fans that they deserve to be in the Top 25 (polls are meaningless I know) but Stanford handled them solidly last night showing that the Trees may be able to play themselves in to the NCAA's. USC needs to salvage their weekend with a win versus Cal who you can pretty much count out of even any NCAA consideration if they lose to USC on saturday. The Trojans have pretty ugly computer numbers but do have wins versus Oregon and Arizona. USC is really being hurt by scheduling 3 +300 RPI teams in the preseason.