Pac 10 Power Poll Week Two

Dominant offensive performances were seen all around the conference this week but the big story has to be the triumphant return of Rick Neuheisal and Norm Chow to Los Angeles and the win they were able to pull out of a hat versus Tennessee on national TV this Labor Day. I didn’t watch much of the first half and really didn’t miss anything other than a terrible offensive performance by both team but especially UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft. Chow and Neuheisal deserve credit for staying with the kid after 4 first half picks. Somehow, due to a combination of better accuracy and Tennesse dropping back in a deep zone against a weak armed QB UCLA was able to throw drives together while on defense get some big league run stuffing from their very solid up the middle defense. UCLA always seems to play OOC teams tough and this game was just another example of that. The Bruins will likely still face major struggles this year they should end of making a bowl which before the Tennessee game was not a likelihood in my book. In other news USC is good, really good and have the fortune of playing Oregon, Ohio State, ASU and Cal all in the Coliseum. Does anyone see a loss on that schedule except possible against U of A on 10/25? Give Stanford credit for maximizing their talent and taking advantage of some dumb mistakes by Oregon State but clearly the less talented team won last Thursday. This was a bad loss for the Beavers, who pending a miracle are looking at a 1-3 start. I am not sure really what to take out of the Oregon/Washington game other than that Washington is really bad, Oregon should be able to start out 5-0 and win at least 8 games but the second half of the schedule is dicey. As for Washington I’ve heard rumors that the guy they have in their cross-hairs for taking over for the dead man walking Willingham regime is Chip Kelly. Kelly going to UW would be beyond a coup – it removes your rivals second most important asset (after Uncle Phil) while at the same time brings in a dynamic offensive mind who would likely work wonders year one with Jake Locker. Oregon cannot let this happen but it is going to be very hard for them to keep Chip Kelly from taking a head coaching job. If Oregon were to lose him it would better to lose him to a non-Pac 10 school. Outside of WSU the rest of the conference played fairly well other than Nate Longshore who I think we can officially put the fork in to. From Heisman candidate on the #2 in the country to not starting in less than a year, Cal wins by 21 if he doesn’t play.
1. USC (1) – Looked truly dominant, they could be back to the form of the 2004 team. Sanchez showed no rust and looked much better than last year and the Trojans get an extra week for Ohio State who will have a banged up Beanie Wells. I’d eat my hat if this team doesn’t play for the BCS championship even with 1 loss.
2. ASU (2) – I’d move them down but I had them 2 last week and from what I read pulled almost everyone for the second half of the NAU game and treated it like a scrimmage. Stanford will provide them a nice chance to get in a game versus a quality opponent before Georgia comes to town but at the same time this game has “trap game” written all over it. Interesting that Stanford will have played two Pac 10 games already while most of the league has played zero.
3. UO (3) – Who needs Dennis Dixon? Just kidding but clearly QB is not as big as a worry for Oregon as I had thought. I think by mid-season Jeremiah Masoli will be playing the majority of snaps as he better fits the scheme. Utah State will be treated as a scrimmage by the Ducks, I’d expect Roper won’t play in the second half nor will Jeremiah Johnson.
4. Cal (4) – They beat a similar team to themselves in a rapidly improving Michigan State. Game would have been closer if Longshore hadn’t played. I still think this team has the second best talent in the league but they need play some better defense it appears. No Pac-10 road game is easy but I look for a comfortable win in Pullman this weekend.
5. UCLA (9) – The Tennessee win was kind of a perfect storm scenario and they Bruins shouldn’t be expecting to get that kind of performance every week against Top 20 teams, at the same time the Bruins do have the potential to go bowling this year and I didn’t think that last week.
6. UA (6) – Idaho stinks but beating anyone 70-0 is impressive. They should have no issues versus Toledo this week.
7. OSU (5) – Yeah they lost to Stanford but if they can fix their issues on the front seven with run defense and if Moevao can have a little better ball security they will be in the mix for a top 5 Pac-10 finish. Playing at Penn State might be a bit too much too ask at this point for a young team.
8. LSJU (8) – Very nice win versus OSU, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of getting everything he can out of his players but depth and athleticism are clearly lacking. Going in to Tempe and looking for a win is probably too much to ask at this point. The schedule makers did Stanford no favors with only 5 home games this year.
9. WSU (10) – The only reason I have them 9th is that they have an easier schedule than Washington and have a better chance of having their QB survive the season. They should be able to give Cal a game for a half but I don’t see an upset occurring.
10. UW (7) – The Huskies are in major trouble. They have a schedule set up like they are defending national champs not a below average Pac-10 team. They need to get better protection for Locker who will face long odds in lasting the season, the Dawgs could beat BYU but will face tough odds against a physical team needing a BCS conference road win to make their case for a BCS berth if they were to go 12-0.

Persistence

Persistence
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Hoops Power Poll

As college football is on its final day I now turn my attention to hoops. The Pac 10 has just completed its first week of regular season play which saw road teams play fairly successfully and was highlighted by Oregon beating Arizona in Tucson for the second consecutive year, a first in school history. The Cats were hurt by the absence of Jarred Bayless and really struggled on the defensive end. Kudos to Ernie Kent for shuffling the lineup a bit. It is clear to me that Tajuan Porter isn’t a viable point guard in the traditional sense of the word and the Ducks will be successful when other players are able to attack the rim and dish it out to Porter where he can be set for his shots and display the success he had as a freshman when Aaron Brooks who penetrate and dish out to Porter beyond the arc. In other games the Cougars fought out a W in a very physical game in Seattle against the Huskies. The Cougars were aided by a dreadful performance from the line by the Huskies in a game that was dominated by both defenses in the first half especially. I give credit to the Huskies for displaying toughness, they have been accused of lacking it in the past but in the end a win is a win and a loss is a loss. UCLA swept Cal and Stanford in what is likely going to be its hardest road weekend of the season while USC went 0-2 in the Bay Area. Finally ASU went to 2-0 for the first time the 1987/88 season. This week sees a matchup of the Arizona schools in Tempe on Wednesday while the Cats end their week with a non-conference game versus an 11-2 Houston team looking for a quality road win to augment their bubble possibilities. The Bay Area schools invade Oregon while the Washington schools match up versus the LA schools. For my NCAA Status feature I would like to comment that I am basing it off of whether they would be in if the NCAA tournament started the day I post each week so these will change a great deal from week to week. Oregon is now a lock in my book with the Arizona win but if they were to get swept at home this week they’d go off that line and down to bubble status.

Power Poll
1. UCLA – Went 2-0 on what could be their hardest road swing of the season. Now they will get the Washington schools at home. The battle versus WSU should be a candidate for Pac 10 game of the year but in the end I see the Bruins winning both games. NCAA status = Lock likely #1 seed (RPI 15 SOS 46).
2. WSU – Won a tough road game to a rival in typical WSU fashion but outside of playing in-state rival Gonzaga and Washington the only reasonable RPI team the Cougs have played this year has been Baylor. Oregon got bagged on by the national media for their OOC schedule but the Cougars was considerably worse and I think the Cougars are a bit overrated early ala Clemson last year. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 30 SOS 251)
3. Stanford – Couldn’t beat UCLA but not many teams are going to this year. I am expecting they sweep the Oregon schools on the road as long as the Ducks don’t go crazy from 3 point land. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 35 SOS 124)
4. Oregon – The Ducks went .500 in the desert which is what they were looking to accomplish but they also have to be disappointed in losing a late lead and falling to ASU. The Arizona win is a great resume builder but they need to keep the momentum up and hold serve at home. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 39 SOS 62)
5. Arizona – Definitely missing Bayless the Cats are also displaying their lack of effort on defense and with the improvement of ASU they can’t expect a cake walk on Wednesday. The Cats have superb computer numbers so as long as they win 10 Pac 10 games they are a lock. 9 wins is dicey buy they would probably still get the benefit of the doubt. NCAA Status = Lock (RPI 12 SOS 1)
6. ASU – The Devils played a pathetic OOC schedule outside of Xavier (who had played an in-city battle versus Cinci two days prior and was unprepared and tired when ASU swamped them) so the game versus Oregon was their first real test of the year. James Harden is a fun player to watch. The Devils in all reality are a NIT team until they can prove they can win a home game. The stakes are high this week with UA in town but I think the Cats will have just enough to win. NCAA Status – Bubble (RPI 84 SOS 255)
7. Cal – The Bears beat USC which is what they were looking to do with the LA schools in town. The Bears are in the same boat as Oregon and ASU. Teams that played easy OOC schedules and need some resume building wins if they are going to go to the big dance. NCAA Status = Bubble (RPI 69 SOS 82)
8. USC – I think by season’s end USC will be a Top 20 team but now they are raw and undisciplined. They can’t afford any more road sweeps if they want to go the NCAA’s. NCAA Status = Bubble (RPI 72 SOS 58)
9. Washington – Played tough versus the Cougs but poor free throw shooting was their undoing. NCAA Status = NIT (RPI 105 SOS 66)
10. OSU – Quite possibly the worst high-major team coming in with a pathetic OOC SOS number of 334 and a RPI of 259. 0-18 is a possibility, reminds me of an early Paul Graham/late Kevin Eastman WSU team. The positive for the Beavers was that they played a great first half in Tucson. NCAA Status = When hell freezes over (RPI 259 SOS 300)

Pac Power Poll and Week 1 Review

Overall a pretty solid day for the Pac 10 with only Arizona really being a disappointment by taking a loss to the Mid-Major BYU team but I can’t really call that result much of an upset. Cal’s impressive win over Tennessee was of-course overshadowed by what has to go down as one of sports biggest upsets ever in Michigan losing to Appalachian State.

1. USC (1) – I watched part of their game against Idaho, you’d probably expect more points for the offense but nothing should be a red flag here. It was a bit scary for them to see Brian Cushing taken off on a cart but it appears as if his ankle is just a sprain and he shouldn’t miss any games. USC has a bye week to prepare for the road test at Nebraska and mend up Cushing. I am assuming Carroll didn’t show much of his hand for Idaho and kept a tight reign on the offense. Those who took the under and Idaho with the points got a nice parlay.
2. UCLA (2) – No problems at all in their visit to the Farm. Beating Stanford is not really much to get to excited about compared to Cal beating Tennessee however UCLA didn’t do anything wrong so I can’t justify knocking them down behind Cal yet. A game at home against BYU should be a bit tougher as the Cougars shut down Arizona.
3. Cal (3) – Looked like they had all the explosiveness we’d expect from I would say could be the nation’s best triad of offensive players in Longshore, Forsett, and Jackson. Cal shouldn’t have too much trouble with Colorado State on the road because they just don’t have the speed to handle the bears. Of course going in to Fort Collins is never easy but this CSU team is not the one of the late 90’s that was the cream of the Mountain West for a bit.
4. ASU (5) – Didn’t see a lick of the game versus San Jose State but looks like Ryan Torrain had a very solid game with 123 yards on only 17 carries with 3 Tds. You probably can’t judge too much based on a home game versus San Jose State but the Spartans were a bowl team last year and have made some strides under Dick Tomey. The challenge should rise a bit next week with CU in town but I’d expect that the Sun Devils will throw in a lot of blitzing to try and confuse true frosh Cody Hawkins and the Buffs.
5. UO (4) – The good for Oregon was the rushing numbers and Dennis Dixon finding his short passing game in the second half along with much improved kicking and coverage on special teams. The Oregon secondary played fairly well save for some missed tackles. The bad news is that Oregon’s front seven was walked all over the field by a C-USA team with a QB playing his first game and the Ducks still lack the ability to complete anything other than short routes. Defensive coordinators should be stacking the box against Oregon and using press coverage to dare Dixon to beat them deep. Michigan losing to Appalachian State did nothing good for Oregon. The Ducks will face a bunch of embarrassed Wolverine’s with a good game plan for stopping Oregon. Interestingly enough App State and Oregon run a very similar system, this game should be a shootout and if the Ducks can avoid throwing picks and fumbling they can win. In the end I think Big Blue will mot lose twice in a row at home to teams not named Ohio State so the Ducks will come back to Autzen 1-1 for the match-up versus the always pesky Fresno State Bulldogs.
6. Oregon State (7) – The Beavs won a grind them out game against Utah who looked pretty solid early until they lost their starting tailback and quarterback to injuries and after that lost any offensive momentum they had. The Beavers are clearly raw at QB right now and dropped a lot of balls too. Bernard looked stellar and I’d expect them to ride him a lot this year especially if Stroughter doesn’t play. A solid win at home but this team has the look of a 500 squad to me unless there is some major improvement from Canfield and/or Moevald. A trip to Cincinatti on Thursday will be a challenge, going east is always hard and the Bearcats can put up points.
7. UW (9) – The big mover on the board the Huskies look great in a win that saw them have to travel all the way across the country for a 9 am Pacific start. Jake Locker looked about as impressive of any Pac 10 freshman QB I can remember in his debut. The schedule is probably too much to ask for Washington to make a bowl game this year but I could see them beating a few mid range Pac 10 teams this season and possibly get to 6 wins. Boise State is probably a bit much for UW to handle right now but there is, for the first time in many years, a reason to have hope for the future for Husky football and that is because of Jake Locker.
8. WSU (6) - No shame in losing in Camp Randall Stadium to a very good Wisconsin team but there are clearly some major issues with the Cougars defense that need to be resolved. With the next two games being against SDSU and Idaho I’d expect to see WSU be 2-1 once Pac 10 play starts and hopefully the experience they got playing in Camp Randall will help them prepare for their Pac 10 schedule.
9. UA (8) – I saw none of the BYU Arizona game but for the Wildcats to only score 6 points against a MWC defense is a very bad sign. They should mend up nicely with NAU in town this week but I warn the Cats to not look past their Championship Division brethren.
10. LSJU (10) – Glass half full thought is that they scored 17 against a Top 20 team in UCLA. Unfortunately they gave up 45 points and UCLA toyed with their defense all day. Harbaugh will make things interesting on the farm at least and that really can’t be said for any Stanford coach since the days of Bill Walsh and Dennis Green.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 12 Review

The big news of this week was obviously USC’s beat down of Notre Dame. Pete Carroll clearly out-coached Weis and Notre Dame just couldn’t get it done in the red-zone. USC now is just 60 minutes away from playing OSU for the BCS Championship. Much kudos to Pete Carroll who I have criticized rightfully in the past for some questionable in game decisions but since the OSU wake-up call USC has played very smart ball. Not sure that they have the experience to beat Ohio State yet but next year this team should be the surefire #1 to start the season. In other news Arizona State beat Arizona in a game that was aided by the knocking out of Willy Tuitama on a cheap shot. Arizona clearly can’t win over anyone outside of Stanford without their QB and there has to be worries now that he has suffered 3 concussions in less than a year. As reward for beating his in-state rival Dirk Koetter was let go off his duties though will receive a nice buyout and should be seen sometime soon as an OC somewhere around the country. Oregon and Oregon State was a classic game that clearly came down to which team had the better kicker. Give the Beavs credit for taking advantage of every mistake Oregon made. Also give credit to Bellotti for giving Brady Leaf a shot, he played a smarter game than Dixon would have and the Ducks overall showed great improvement over their last three performances in Corvallis.

1. USC (1) – Have had no problem in rolling through their “gauntlet” of a schedule since the Stanford game. Now all that stands between them and the BCS championship game is a feisty but ultimately lacking in playmakers UCLA team.
2. Cal (2) – Likely Holiday Bowl bound the BCS has yet to release them from consideration for a Rose Bowl bid. They shouldn’t have much problems with Stanford this week but I wonder how much motivation they have left for the Holiday Bowl.
3. UCLA (3) – The win over ASU two weeks ago looks better now that the Devils beat the Cats. UCLA will need to play the best game of the Karl Dorrell era to beat the Trojans. I have a feeling UCLA loses to USC but find them-selves spending Christmas in Hawaii.
4. OSU (4) – Did just enough to beat Oregon, many thanks due to the lack of mistakes by the offense and the leg of Alexis Serna. On the other hand what in the world was Mike Riley doing throwing the ball late in the 4^th quarter with the big lead? They now face the mother off all “trap” games in Hawaii before the Sun Bowl becons.
5. ASU (7) – The Territorial Cup is usually won by the underdog, this year was no exception but still the Devils fired Dirk Koetter. I’d expect to see them in the Insight Bowl, as for coaching candidates Norm Chow would be killer there.
6. UA (5) – Huge letdown for the Cats to lose to ASU at home but the Tuitama injury didn’t help at all. However the Arizona defense was clueless for the first 20 minutes of this game and allowed ASU to get 3 early TD’s. Now UA will play the waiting game to see if they can make it to a bowl. The likely Candidate I would say is the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco.
7. UO (6) – To call the 2006 Oregon season a disappointment is probably an understatement. The Ducks played a very inspired second half against Oregon State which was surprising considering the lack of second half efforts over much of the season. The Ducks have 7 wins and the Las Vegas Bowl has gone on record as saying they don’t want a 6-6 team so I would wager the Ducks end up in Las Vegas.
8. UW (8) – Nothing new to add from last week, the Huskies season is still over and eyes are on hoops.
9. WSU (9) – The Cougars have 6 wins but I don’t see them getting a bowl invite.
10. Stanford (10) – The stadium should be full for the Big Game. The biggest question that remains is whether Saturday’s game will be the final one of the Walt Harris era.