Power Poll Week Five

Well the PAC 10 is now down to one undefeated team and for the 7th time in the last 9 games Oregon had it’s starting quarterback injured. This time Jeremiah Masoli was speared on a late hit that really should have led to an ejection but didn’t. For some reason Oregon stubbornly kept running the ball with Chris Harper when everyone in the entire stadium except for Chip Kelly seemed to know that a run was coming every play. Finally in the third quarter Oregon put in Darron Thomas who led the Ducks to 3 touchdowns via the air but it was just not enough. The Ducks have to look back and kick themselves and the loss just added to the fuel of it being USC and the Seven Dwarves. In the AP no Pac 10team is ranked outside of #1 USC. In other news Stanford got a win versus Bay Area rival San Jose State which should have been no surprise. Give Harbaugh credit for not overlooking this rival who has beat the Trees a fair amount of times over the last decade. UCLA was pretty much throttled on their home field by Arizona making it seem even more and more that the Bruins win over Tennessee was a complete fluke. The Bruins have 2 and 10 or 3 and 9 written all over them while Arizona got a big road win it its quest to finally make a bowl game again and maybe save Mike Stoops job. Arizona State showed that the Pac 10 outside of USC in not anywhere near the level of the SEC this year, the Devils weren’t really in this game from the get go and can now mark down 2008 as a likely lost season. Finally the Washington State Cougars found a team they could actually beat, too bad that said team is a mediocre Big Sky team and the Vikings at the same time knocked out the Cougars top two quarterbacks. Gary Rodgers it appears has now played his last game and the Cougs have won their last game unless they catch UW or UCLA on a really flat effort day.
1. USC (1) – Should roll tonight in Corvallis, the only thing that might derail a BCS Championship appearance by USC is having undefeated BIG 12 and SEC teams jump ahead of USC in the final coaches poll then the numbers would be very close and a ton of controversy were occur. This in the end may end up being Carroll’s best squad ever. He’s shown he can recover from the many losses of assistant coaches over the last 5 years that have used USC as a springboard to other jobs.
2. UO (2) – I’d rank them lower if I could, not sure there is much difference between Cal and Oregon right now but even though the Ducks lost they were playing with their 4th and 5th string true freshman quarterbacks most of the game. I’d imagine any team in the country might have struggled with BSU with the same scenario
3. Cal (3)- Cal has a chance to end the Mountain West’s five game advantage against the Pac 10. Absolutely a game Cal cannot drop after a bye week.
4. ASU (4)- The Devils were overmatched versus Georgia and now get a week off before going to Strawberry Canyon in a key game for the Devils to have any shot at the Holiday Bowl. With a game at USC the week after that before hosting Oregon, ASU could find itself with a 5 game losing streak that would likely mean the end of the Carpenter era.
5. UA (6)- Arizona is probably one more road win away from all but locking up a bowl appearance. They get two weeks to prepare for Washington at home.
6. OSU (5)- Oregon State is likely going to be 1-5 after the next two Thursday games. No criticism for losing to USC but I think they over scheduled themselves with having to play Penn State and Utah on the road in the same year. Boo on the fans for not even selling out Bean Dip for USC on national tv. If it weren’t for Duck fans buying up seats the crowd would be even less for this one. Here’s a clue, you’ve known for 8 months the game would be on Thursday, take a half or full day off from work and then all of Friday and make it to the game Beaver County.
7. LSJU (7)- Did what they needed to do and that is beat San Jose State. They have likely their best shot at a Pac 10 road win this week in Seattle, a win is completely needed to keep the bowl hope alive.
8. UW (8)- The Dawgs are the only winless team in the conference and have to be still smarting from the whooping that the Sooners laid on them. Willingham is dead man walking and has been for over a year but a loss here and the walking papers may come Saturday night.
9. UCLA (9) – Have frankly played dreadful offensive football for all but 1 quarter this season. Slick Rick and Nor Chow will need to wait to 2009 to get this baby back on track. Look for Fresno to come in to the Rose Bowl with a ton of fans of rough up a Pac 10 team further negating the value of the conference in the eyes of the nation’s fans and media.
10. WSU (10) – In the battle of 3rd string quarterbacks Washington State is overmatched big time against Oregon. Look for the Ducks to go over 350 yards rushing in a contest that will be decided by the mid second quarter.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Two

Dominant offensive performances were seen all around the conference this week but the big story has to be the triumphant return of Rick Neuheisal and Norm Chow to Los Angeles and the win they were able to pull out of a hat versus Tennessee on national TV this Labor Day. I didn’t watch much of the first half and really didn’t miss anything other than a terrible offensive performance by both team but especially UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft. Chow and Neuheisal deserve credit for staying with the kid after 4 first half picks. Somehow, due to a combination of better accuracy and Tennesse dropping back in a deep zone against a weak armed QB UCLA was able to throw drives together while on defense get some big league run stuffing from their very solid up the middle defense. UCLA always seems to play OOC teams tough and this game was just another example of that. The Bruins will likely still face major struggles this year they should end of making a bowl which before the Tennessee game was not a likelihood in my book. In other news USC is good, really good and have the fortune of playing Oregon, Ohio State, ASU and Cal all in the Coliseum. Does anyone see a loss on that schedule except possible against U of A on 10/25? Give Stanford credit for maximizing their talent and taking advantage of some dumb mistakes by Oregon State but clearly the less talented team won last Thursday. This was a bad loss for the Beavers, who pending a miracle are looking at a 1-3 start. I am not sure really what to take out of the Oregon/Washington game other than that Washington is really bad, Oregon should be able to start out 5-0 and win at least 8 games but the second half of the schedule is dicey. As for Washington I’ve heard rumors that the guy they have in their cross-hairs for taking over for the dead man walking Willingham regime is Chip Kelly. Kelly going to UW would be beyond a coup – it removes your rivals second most important asset (after Uncle Phil) while at the same time brings in a dynamic offensive mind who would likely work wonders year one with Jake Locker. Oregon cannot let this happen but it is going to be very hard for them to keep Chip Kelly from taking a head coaching job. If Oregon were to lose him it would better to lose him to a non-Pac 10 school. Outside of WSU the rest of the conference played fairly well other than Nate Longshore who I think we can officially put the fork in to. From Heisman candidate on the #2 in the country to not starting in less than a year, Cal wins by 21 if he doesn’t play.
1. USC (1) – Looked truly dominant, they could be back to the form of the 2004 team. Sanchez showed no rust and looked much better than last year and the Trojans get an extra week for Ohio State who will have a banged up Beanie Wells. I’d eat my hat if this team doesn’t play for the BCS championship even with 1 loss.
2. ASU (2) – I’d move them down but I had them 2 last week and from what I read pulled almost everyone for the second half of the NAU game and treated it like a scrimmage. Stanford will provide them a nice chance to get in a game versus a quality opponent before Georgia comes to town but at the same time this game has “trap game” written all over it. Interesting that Stanford will have played two Pac 10 games already while most of the league has played zero.
3. UO (3) – Who needs Dennis Dixon? Just kidding but clearly QB is not as big as a worry for Oregon as I had thought. I think by mid-season Jeremiah Masoli will be playing the majority of snaps as he better fits the scheme. Utah State will be treated as a scrimmage by the Ducks, I’d expect Roper won’t play in the second half nor will Jeremiah Johnson.
4. Cal (4) – They beat a similar team to themselves in a rapidly improving Michigan State. Game would have been closer if Longshore hadn’t played. I still think this team has the second best talent in the league but they need play some better defense it appears. No Pac-10 road game is easy but I look for a comfortable win in Pullman this weekend.
5. UCLA (9) – The Tennessee win was kind of a perfect storm scenario and they Bruins shouldn’t be expecting to get that kind of performance every week against Top 20 teams, at the same time the Bruins do have the potential to go bowling this year and I didn’t think that last week.
6. UA (6) – Idaho stinks but beating anyone 70-0 is impressive. They should have no issues versus Toledo this week.
7. OSU (5) – Yeah they lost to Stanford but if they can fix their issues on the front seven with run defense and if Moevao can have a little better ball security they will be in the mix for a top 5 Pac-10 finish. Playing at Penn State might be a bit too much too ask at this point for a young team.
8. LSJU (8) – Very nice win versus OSU, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of getting everything he can out of his players but depth and athleticism are clearly lacking. Going in to Tempe and looking for a win is probably too much to ask at this point. The schedule makers did Stanford no favors with only 5 home games this year.
9. WSU (10) – The only reason I have them 9th is that they have an easier schedule than Washington and have a better chance of having their QB survive the season. They should be able to give Cal a game for a half but I don’t see an upset occurring.
10. UW (7) – The Huskies are in major trouble. They have a schedule set up like they are defending national champs not a below average Pac-10 team. They need to get better protection for Locker who will face long odds in lasting the season, the Dawgs could beat BYU but will face tough odds against a physical team needing a BCS conference road win to make their case for a BCS berth if they were to go 12-0.

Bracket Thoughts

Kahana Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

First off kudos to the tournament selection committee, I thought they did about as good of job seeding and including the 34 most deserving teams as ever and a much improvement over the last two years but I do have some complaints. First off why are they having so many mid-majors play each-other in the first round, this trend seemed to have started last year and I think it is bad for the tournament and makes the first round less interesting. This is obviously designed to lessen the chance of mid-major getting to the Sweet 16 and beyond and it makes for a less interesting tournament early which is most certainly what we saw last year when the first day especially there was a lack of exciting games. Second major complaint was the placement of Tennessee. The Vols were on the edge of getting a 1 seed, were the only team to beat Memphis (and did so on the road) and still got stuck with the hardest road to the Final Four of any of the two seeds and you could make the argument that possibly on Washington State has a harder route to the Final Four of any of the top 16 seeds. I’d give the Vols a very small chance of surviving the possible gauntlet of Butler, Louisville and Carolina (in Charlotte) to get to San Antonio. I had minor quibbles with the seeding of the following teams: Oregon (too high), Miami (too high), Vanderbilt (too high), Pitt (too low) and most egregious Portland State receiving a 16 seed over American and UMBC to name two teams that got 15’s. Here is my latest projections region by region though I am sure this will change from my right before the tourney starts picks which I will post to ESPN tomorrow morning. These picks are likely too conservative while my first brackets may have been a bit too bold, looking for that perfect combination is tough but I have a pretty good track record of picking brackets and last year won my Yahoo pool by placing 7 of 8 in the Elite 8 and getting every game in the Final Four correct:
East : My general thoughts are that North Carolina has a very difficult bracket for being the #1 seed of the entire tournament but they won’t have to leave the state to get to the Final Four and if I what I heard is correct, has only lost one NCAA tournament game as the #1 seed in the East Regional. If any of the games were not played in the state of Carolina I’d give WSU or Louisville or even Tennessee a very good shot to beat the Heels.
Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16 – The Butler Bulldogs, if they get past South Alabama, have a legit shot to beat Tennessee. Though the Vols will be playing quite close to home and won’t have to face a crowd that will jump behind the underdogs Butler can dictate tempo and win a free throw contest.
First Round Winners:

UNC (1)
Indiana (9)
Notre Dame (5)
WSU (4)
St Joes (11)
Louisville (3)
Butler (7)
Tennessee (2)

Second Round Winners:

UNC (1)
WSU (4)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UNC (1)
Louisville (3)

Elite 8 Winner:

UNC (1)

Midwest: On paper Kansas has the easiest route of any of the #1 seeds to the Final Four which is a bit peculiar as they are generally regarded as the lowest ranked of the #1 seeds. Kansas has a possible dangerous game versus a hot and athletic Clemson team and the well coached Badgers of Wisconsin could prove difficult to defeat in Detroit. What I don’t like about Kansas is Bill Self’s coaching record in NCAA tournament games when he isn’t the coach of Tulsa.

Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: Davidson, who gets the advantage of playing in their home state for the first two rounds, playing a fellow mid-major in the first round who has to travel 2700 miles and play at 9:30 AM Pacific and getting a shot at the weakest of the two seeds in Georgetown.

First Round Winners:

KU (1)
Kent State (9)
Clemson (5)
Vanderbilt (5)
K-State (11)
Wisconsin (3)
Davidson (10)
Georgetown (2)

Second Round Winners:

KU (1)
Clemson (5)
Wisconsin (3)
Georgetown (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

KU (1)
Wisconsin (3)

Elite Eight Winner:

KU (1)

South: This is a brutal region that typically doesn’t see the #1 seed advance to the Final Four and I believe that this year will be no different. Not only does Memphis face a very difficult Sweet 16 matchup versus either Pitt or Michigan State even if they survive that they’d play a likely game versus Texas in Houston. I don’t think Memphis can coast on athletic ability alone and the free throw issue will haunt them one of these games as it did versus Tennessee.

Best shot at a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: The Temple Owls who have played very well down the stretch could steal a few wins from Michigan State and Pitt before they battle Memphis.

First Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Miss St (8)
Mich St (5)
Pitt (4)
Marquette (6)
Stanford (3)
St Mary’s (10)
Texas (2)

Second Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Pitt (4)
Stanford (3)
Texas (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

Pitt (4)
Texas (2)
Elite Eight Winner:

Texas (2)

West: It almost seems to easy to me for UCLA to get to the Final Four and that scares me because having watched a large amount of Bruins games this year they tend to not blow anyone out so if they get in a situation where Josh Shipp is cold and Love gets in foul trouble they could go down early busting brackets nationwide in matchup versus a Texas A & M or UConn. The Arizona Wildcats are an intriguing 10 seed who if they can get past the horrific gauntlet of playing West Virginia and Duke in Washington DC would suddenly become a threat to win the region as they’d get to play in Phoenix on the second weekend. When it comes down to it though I just can’t not take UCLA to win this region. On paper it seems like this is a bracket that will play mainly to form but I have a feeling that at the end we could see it being the bracket that is the most busted up of them all.

Best Chance for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: If the Baylor Bears can control the tempo and keep running they can knock off Purdue and Xavier who are both quite deliberate defensively oriented teams.

First Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
Texas A & M (9)
Drake (5)
UConn (4)
Baylor (11)
Xavier (3)
West Virginia (7)
Duke (2)

Second Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
UConn (4)
Xavier (3)
Duke (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UCLA (1)
Xavier (3)

Elite Eight Winner:
UCLA (1)

Final Four Predictions Rundown:

I truly hate taken 3 # 1 seeds to the Final Four and this isn’t necessarily the bracket I would submit in to any bracket pool but I am having trouble spotting the obvious take down games that I was able to find last year. In addition the Big 12 has not been to adept at getting teams to the Final Fo On the left side of the bracket I see Kansas/UNC as being an epic match-up. If Bill Self can get the monkey off his back and get to this game I see him continuing his new found mojo and knocking off ex-Jayhawk Roy Williams. I am sure we will all be so sick about hearing about how hard Tyler Hansborough works by them that it will be a relief to have this year’s version of the Great White Hope vanquished. Carolina is a very solid team but tend to have trouble at times consistently making outside shots. This is what cost them last year in the Georgetown game and this should be their downfall as well this year. On the right side of the bracket I think UCLA has the defensive ability to slow down DJ Augustine enough to mitigate the pro-Longhorn crown you’d find in San Antonio.

In what should be a better Finals matchup than we have seen in a few years I see UCLA cutting down the nets for a team that will have three guys drafted in the top 15 picks in Collison, Westbrook and Love.

Pac 10 Tourney

Emily on Cannon Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Just watched Cal hold off UW, wouldn't be surprised to see Cal win again tomorrow. UCLA is #1 in the West win or lose so a few extra days rest could help. If anyone wants a great example of what they call "Coach Speak" I hope they caught FSN's pre game interview with Kevin O'Neil. O'Neil basically said nothing, the interview was a waste of everyone's time. The man has the personality of Lloyd Carr it appears. As a final thought congrats to the Portland State Vikings on making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in their history.

Bubble Watch

Where is Nemo?
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here is what we know: With USC beating Stanford they have sealed up a bid no matter what happens around the country between now and Sunday and that leaves 4 Pac 10 teams as locks. We also know that UCLA is getting the benefit of the doubt from the zebras who as usual have embarrased the Pac 10. We know that Arizona could have sealed a bid and killed Oregon had they won Saturday night and they didn't. We know that no Pac 10 team has ever made it at 9-9 but this year a 8-10 team might make it over two 9-9 teams who both swept said team. We know that Oregon could go back and look at any of 5 games this year and had they gotten a win in any of them there would be no further conversation needed. We know that Lisa Love could have done a better job at not scheduling such a cream puff OOC schedule at Arizona State this year. We know that Kevin O'Neil is no Lute Olson. We know the next week is going to be very interesting the Pac 10 could get as many as 7 teams in or just 4.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week Eight Review

The week’s top story has to be the return of a viable quarterback to the UCLA Bruins and how this lead to Cal going from thinking they were the #1 team in the nation to being 3 games (considering that UCLA would own the tie-breaker due to their win over Cal) behind UCLA for the race for the Rose Bowl. Cal is all but dead in the water unless they can win out, get some luck and have UCLA only win 2 or less games this year. Cal could easily find themselves playing in the Fort Worth or Vegas Bowl which has to be one of the larger falls from grace we have seen nationally in the last few years. Amazingly, UCLA, who has suffered embarrassing losses to winless teams, is atop the Pac 10 with a 4-0 conference record. If Patrick Cowan can stay healthy they can beat anyone in the conference, with Bethel-Thompson at QB they can’t beat anyone. The Dawgs must be yearning for the days of Steve Emtman after surrendering over 450 yards rushing to Oregon. If you went back in time and told a Husky fan in 1991 that an Oregon Duck team lead by a running back from the State of Washington would lead an attack that set the Oregon school rushing record on Husky Stadium soil they would likely have you committed. Times do change, 1991 seems like ancient history, no internet, no cell phones or DVD or spread shotgun spread offenses for that matter . In other new Stanford won their second road game of the conference schedule but still hasn’t beaten anyone outside of San Jose State on their own field. Finally it appears that USC has gotten past their injury issues after wood-shedding Notre Dame in South Bend and now will face Oregon in the first match-up between two Top 10 (coaches poll not BCS) teams in the history of Autzen Stadium.

1. UO (1) – The bad news first, Oregon had some breakdowns in coverage that allowed Jake Locker to show he can throw the ball down the field and keep pace with the Ducks for 3 quarters. The good news is that Oregon ran for 456 yards, completely dominated the line of scrimmage offensively in a matter that has not been seen in Eugene in well forever. Had Oregon been able to play USC two weeks ago I think they would have beaten the Trojans by 14, but now that USC has had time to heal the game will be much closer and I would make the Trojans a small favorite. Oregon won’t be able to run laterally well against the speed that the Trojans posses so they will need to play smash-mouth football and win it between the tackles. Dennis Dixon obviously must avoid the picks and the Ducks can’t afford to let Stefon Johnson or Joe McKnight break long runs. Should be an epic, glad to have a seat for it!
2. ASU (2) – ASU was on bye week, which is a good thing because they will finally start to play some real teams. We well find out now if ASU is a true contender or whether they were beating up on creampuffs since they face Cal, Oregon, UCLA and USC in the next month. The Devils could go from being #4 in the BCS to out of the Top 25 in a short amount of time. Cal is sputtering but has never lost 3 games in a row under Jeff Tedford, this should be the second best game of the day but could get widely ignored with the national and conference attention on the game in Eugene.
3. USC (4) – Getting healthy at the right time. My opinion is that Matt Sanchez gives them a better chance at winning against Oregon than John David Booty. The o-line and defense are as healthy as they have been this year so Oregon could be in for a rude awakening.
4. UCLA (9) - I had UCLA 9th last week because the injury status of Patrick Cowan was up in the air, now that they have a functional quarterback again they are fully capable of being the Top 10 team that they have the personnel to be. They face a reeling WSU team but I would consider this one to be on major upset watch, especially with the Cougars having two weeks to prepare.
5. OSU (5) – On bye week last week after the big win in Berkeley. The Beavs got bad news with the loss of Tavika Thompson by decree from the NCAA. The reason for his eligibility being revoked is not yet known but we should stay on the lookout for further news. The Beavs should be able to end Stanford’s two game conference winning streak as the Cardinal shouldn’t be over looked anymore by anyone.
6. Cal (3) – This is where Cal shows whether they can rally and play themselves back in to the top of the Pac 10 and compete for a possible BCS at large bid or whether the wheels fall completely off. They no longer control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl but still will have a major effect on who ends up playing in it. They are more tested than ASU but need to do a better job running the ball to keep teams from teeing off on Nate Longshore (no speedster to begin with) who has the mobility of Bernie Kosar right now.
7. Stanford (7) – The Trees won another Pac 10 road game and certainly deserve much credit for that but unless they can stretch that streak to 3 games I don’t see them getting bowl eligible this season. Stanford under Jim Harbaugh is playing much smarter and once they increase their talent pool should be able to compete for a lower tier bowl every year as long as Harbaugh is in the fold. His enthusiasm is changing the culture in Palo Alto which will be a good thing with the gem of a stadium they have.
8. UW (8) – The Huskies played very hard for 3+ quarters but as has been typical in their now 5 game losing streak the Dawgs don’t have the conditioning or talent to stay with good teams for 60 minutes. Jake Locker broke out the long ball with some great success versus Oregon but the run defense is beyond atrocious. I couldn’t think of a better team for them to play right now than Arizona however and the Dawgs could further drive a steak in to the chances of Mike Stoops remaining at Arizona.
9. UA (6) – Losing to Stanford at home is always a huge letdown. Will they be the team that end Washington’s long losing streak? The decimated Husky front seven should be pretty vulnerable to a steady diet of runs.
10. WSU (10) - Just playing for pride now, but still have a very dangerous offense at home at least. They have a great shot at beating UCLA.

College Football is Back!

I won't have a chance to post my full season preview until Friday night I think but I wanted to at least put my picks down on the blog before the Oregon State - Utah game comes on. So here it goes:

1. USC 12-0 (9-0) BCS Champ game
2. UCLA 10-2 (7-2) Possible at large in Rose or Holiday
3. Cal 10-2 (7-2) Sun or Holiday if UCLA moves up
4. UO 7-5 (5-4) Emerald Bowl5. ASU 7-5 (4-5) Vegas Bowl
6. WSU 6-6 (4-5) Armed Forces Bowl
7. OSU 6-6 (3-6)
8. UA 5-7 (3-6)
9. UW 3-10 (2-7)
10. LSJU 2-10 (1-8)