Quick Tourney Takes

Commonwealth Lake Park
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

We were at the coast Saturday night and Sunday and I kept my phone off so just catching up with the brackets via the DVR. A few first impressions. Overall I have no problem with anyone being left out of the field, the bubble sucked Va Tech only has themselves to blame with such a crud OOC SOS , same for Miss State. Illinois probably should have gotten in over Utah State, too bad they lost that Ohio State game but I shed no tears with their 75 RPI. I don't get too hyped up about seedings since many teams are moved up and down due to conference match-ups not till the Elite 8 ideally and the pod system. Probably worst seedings were Cal, Notre Dame and Texas. Does anyone right now consider Texas one of the 34 best teams right now? Probably not but with the great early start hard to keep them out.

Hardest road to the Final Four for a 1: Easy answer is Kansas, would have to beat the Gtown/Ohio State winner in the Elite most likely and a possible Mich St in the Sweet 16. On the bottom of the bracket are OSU and the Vols two teams that KU lost too.

Easiest route to the Final Four: Kentucky, shouldn't be challenged till the likely match-up versus West Virginia in the 8 though West Virginia is a really tough out if they match-up.

Most likely 12-5 upset: UTEP over Butler, Butler like Gonzaga before them has gotten to the point where they have started to get overseeded. Not their fault but they don't get to play a high level schedule the last 20 games of the year due to their conference. Butler is much more dangerous in the 7 10 or 11 spot. Hate to see a mid-major/mid major first round game. Been a trend the last 3 years or so.

Best chance for a non 1/2 seed to make the Final Four: Pitt, they've beaten some really good teams and are in a region they can win. If not Pitt then Georgetown and Baylor would be the best chances.

Sweet 16 game I want to see: Nova vs Baylor - I think the winner of this one can take down Duke, good matchup for Baylor who has the size to give Nova fits.

Final Four: Kansas, Pitt, Kentucky, Nova

Champ game: Kansas over Kentucky

Bracket Thoughts

Kahana Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

First off kudos to the tournament selection committee, I thought they did about as good of job seeding and including the 34 most deserving teams as ever and a much improvement over the last two years but I do have some complaints. First off why are they having so many mid-majors play each-other in the first round, this trend seemed to have started last year and I think it is bad for the tournament and makes the first round less interesting. This is obviously designed to lessen the chance of mid-major getting to the Sweet 16 and beyond and it makes for a less interesting tournament early which is most certainly what we saw last year when the first day especially there was a lack of exciting games. Second major complaint was the placement of Tennessee. The Vols were on the edge of getting a 1 seed, were the only team to beat Memphis (and did so on the road) and still got stuck with the hardest road to the Final Four of any of the two seeds and you could make the argument that possibly on Washington State has a harder route to the Final Four of any of the top 16 seeds. I’d give the Vols a very small chance of surviving the possible gauntlet of Butler, Louisville and Carolina (in Charlotte) to get to San Antonio. I had minor quibbles with the seeding of the following teams: Oregon (too high), Miami (too high), Vanderbilt (too high), Pitt (too low) and most egregious Portland State receiving a 16 seed over American and UMBC to name two teams that got 15’s. Here is my latest projections region by region though I am sure this will change from my right before the tourney starts picks which I will post to ESPN tomorrow morning. These picks are likely too conservative while my first brackets may have been a bit too bold, looking for that perfect combination is tough but I have a pretty good track record of picking brackets and last year won my Yahoo pool by placing 7 of 8 in the Elite 8 and getting every game in the Final Four correct:
East : My general thoughts are that North Carolina has a very difficult bracket for being the #1 seed of the entire tournament but they won’t have to leave the state to get to the Final Four and if I what I heard is correct, has only lost one NCAA tournament game as the #1 seed in the East Regional. If any of the games were not played in the state of Carolina I’d give WSU or Louisville or even Tennessee a very good shot to beat the Heels.
Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16 – The Butler Bulldogs, if they get past South Alabama, have a legit shot to beat Tennessee. Though the Vols will be playing quite close to home and won’t have to face a crowd that will jump behind the underdogs Butler can dictate tempo and win a free throw contest.
First Round Winners:

UNC (1)
Indiana (9)
Notre Dame (5)
WSU (4)
St Joes (11)
Louisville (3)
Butler (7)
Tennessee (2)

Second Round Winners:

UNC (1)
WSU (4)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UNC (1)
Louisville (3)

Elite 8 Winner:

UNC (1)

Midwest: On paper Kansas has the easiest route of any of the #1 seeds to the Final Four which is a bit peculiar as they are generally regarded as the lowest ranked of the #1 seeds. Kansas has a possible dangerous game versus a hot and athletic Clemson team and the well coached Badgers of Wisconsin could prove difficult to defeat in Detroit. What I don’t like about Kansas is Bill Self’s coaching record in NCAA tournament games when he isn’t the coach of Tulsa.

Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: Davidson, who gets the advantage of playing in their home state for the first two rounds, playing a fellow mid-major in the first round who has to travel 2700 miles and play at 9:30 AM Pacific and getting a shot at the weakest of the two seeds in Georgetown.

First Round Winners:

KU (1)
Kent State (9)
Clemson (5)
Vanderbilt (5)
K-State (11)
Wisconsin (3)
Davidson (10)
Georgetown (2)

Second Round Winners:

KU (1)
Clemson (5)
Wisconsin (3)
Georgetown (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

KU (1)
Wisconsin (3)

Elite Eight Winner:

KU (1)

South: This is a brutal region that typically doesn’t see the #1 seed advance to the Final Four and I believe that this year will be no different. Not only does Memphis face a very difficult Sweet 16 matchup versus either Pitt or Michigan State even if they survive that they’d play a likely game versus Texas in Houston. I don’t think Memphis can coast on athletic ability alone and the free throw issue will haunt them one of these games as it did versus Tennessee.

Best shot at a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: The Temple Owls who have played very well down the stretch could steal a few wins from Michigan State and Pitt before they battle Memphis.

First Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Miss St (8)
Mich St (5)
Pitt (4)
Marquette (6)
Stanford (3)
St Mary’s (10)
Texas (2)

Second Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Pitt (4)
Stanford (3)
Texas (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

Pitt (4)
Texas (2)
Elite Eight Winner:

Texas (2)

West: It almost seems to easy to me for UCLA to get to the Final Four and that scares me because having watched a large amount of Bruins games this year they tend to not blow anyone out so if they get in a situation where Josh Shipp is cold and Love gets in foul trouble they could go down early busting brackets nationwide in matchup versus a Texas A & M or UConn. The Arizona Wildcats are an intriguing 10 seed who if they can get past the horrific gauntlet of playing West Virginia and Duke in Washington DC would suddenly become a threat to win the region as they’d get to play in Phoenix on the second weekend. When it comes down to it though I just can’t not take UCLA to win this region. On paper it seems like this is a bracket that will play mainly to form but I have a feeling that at the end we could see it being the bracket that is the most busted up of them all.

Best Chance for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: If the Baylor Bears can control the tempo and keep running they can knock off Purdue and Xavier who are both quite deliberate defensively oriented teams.

First Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
Texas A & M (9)
Drake (5)
UConn (4)
Baylor (11)
Xavier (3)
West Virginia (7)
Duke (2)

Second Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
UConn (4)
Xavier (3)
Duke (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UCLA (1)
Xavier (3)

Elite Eight Winner:
UCLA (1)

Final Four Predictions Rundown:

I truly hate taken 3 # 1 seeds to the Final Four and this isn’t necessarily the bracket I would submit in to any bracket pool but I am having trouble spotting the obvious take down games that I was able to find last year. In addition the Big 12 has not been to adept at getting teams to the Final Fo On the left side of the bracket I see Kansas/UNC as being an epic match-up. If Bill Self can get the monkey off his back and get to this game I see him continuing his new found mojo and knocking off ex-Jayhawk Roy Williams. I am sure we will all be so sick about hearing about how hard Tyler Hansborough works by them that it will be a relief to have this year’s version of the Great White Hope vanquished. Carolina is a very solid team but tend to have trouble at times consistently making outside shots. This is what cost them last year in the Georgetown game and this should be their downfall as well this year. On the right side of the bracket I think UCLA has the defensive ability to slow down DJ Augustine enough to mitigate the pro-Longhorn crown you’d find in San Antonio.

In what should be a better Finals matchup than we have seen in a few years I see UCLA cutting down the nets for a team that will have three guys drafted in the top 15 picks in Collison, Westbrook and Love.

March Madness

Well it has been a bit of time since I last posted here. Home life has been great and Evie is really starting to grow and become aware. You can see the changes daily, she is quite mature for only being 10 weeks old. The job has gotten quite a bit busy with some folks moving on some I am trying to survive and thrive in that the best I can. When I last posted Ernie Kent and the Ducks were in a free fall. Nice to see what a home sweep of the Northwest schools can do for a team but even then I think that prior to the Pac 10 tournament Oregon looked liked a likely 7 or 8 seed. Fast forward three games and the Ducks and their hot shooting find themselves a 3 seed in the easiest bracket in the country and have a great line to get to the Elite 8. Oregon’s domination of the rest of the Pac 10 in the tournament was unprecedented though they sure lucked out without having to face UCLA. The Ducks have regained their sea legs and swagger and with a Friday game in Spokane should be quite well rested before they play Miami and then the winner of Notre Dame/Winthrop. I don’t think the Ducks could have asked for a better position than they got. I don’t foresee an issue with Miami and I’d actually rather face Notre Dame than Winthrop who has the better front court. Wisconsin is a vulnerable 2 seed though a better team than Memphis in my opinion. If someone like an Arizona or Maryland can knock off Florida (who I think the Ducks would just not match up to very well) you can’t discount Oregon actually making a Final Four. Had Oregon lost to WSU at home and then to Arizona in the tourney you have to think they would have been sweating out Selection Sunday just like Stanford did. Kudos to the Committee for rewarding dominant play in the tournament, both from Oregon but also for schools like UNC, Kansas and Florida. There is no doubt that UCLA losing to Cal played themselves out of the #1 spot in the West. Thankfully for the Bruins they didn’t get shipped out of California and I still like their chances to get back to the Final Four. I’d be surprised to see any other Pac 10 teams outside of UCLA and Oregon in the Elite 8 and I think that WSU is particularly vulnerable to being the first 3 seed knocked out.