Final Four Week Thoughts

Cannon Beach Weekend
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

The Pac 10 is seeing some major turnover in coaches and more dominoes could conceivably fall with the Final Four being a de-facto coaches convention with guys lobbying for jobs . It appears as if Billy Grier will end up in Corvallis if he wants to – if in fact Ernie Kent is replaced after next year by Mark Few this makes for an interesting scenario. Both guys grew up just south of Eugene, both attended the U of O but didn’t play basketball their and both have a long history of working with each-other in Gonzaga. There were whispers over the years that Grier was the man behind the scenes at Gonzaga heading up the amazing recruiting success and had more to do with the Zags success than Few. We shall see but it seems there may be some type of rivalry between the two coaches brewing which would really get heated if they both ended up in the Willamette Valley. I think Ben Braun at Cal is a quality coach but it was his time to go, that’s a very good job but the Bears need to get a big name in there but got a no from Jamie Dixon. Randy Bennett would be a good hire there but his St Mary’s team has a legit Sweet 16 run in them next year. Lute Olson is back and Kevin O’Neil is out in Tucson, I think this makes sense in the short term as people didn’t like O’Neil much and the guys dome resembled an eggplant during games but Olson needs to set a date for his retirement and get out, his style isn’t really meshing with the current defensive minded Pac 10 coaches and the Cats have been living on brand name for the last five years. He might luck out and keep Buddinger and Bayless for a year but then they might leave. Either way this Arizona team will be hurting defensively next year. As for the games in San Antonio I think we have the potential for the best Final Four ever. I am pulling for a Carolina win over UCLA because I will win two bracket pools and $700+ if that happens but my head is telling me we are going to see a Memphis/Kansas final. I like the Jayhawks and Tigers because of their depth. Carolina doesn’t have the depth of KU and if Roy Williams wants to win I think he needs to slow the game down which I don’t think he will do, Kansas has the depth to out run Carolina. Memphis will win as long as they hit free throws and don’t self destruct, UCLA has the better coach and the players at UCLA have a higher basketball IQ but Memphis is loaded, playing dominant ball and have a huge size advantage. The Bruins need a huge game from Shipp and Love and need to hope that the refs keep giving them the benefit of the doubt. UCLA has been playing with fire for over a month now and it is going to catch up with them soon. In the finals I like Kansas over Memphis in a game played in the high 80’s.

Bracket Thoughts

Kahana Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

First off kudos to the tournament selection committee, I thought they did about as good of job seeding and including the 34 most deserving teams as ever and a much improvement over the last two years but I do have some complaints. First off why are they having so many mid-majors play each-other in the first round, this trend seemed to have started last year and I think it is bad for the tournament and makes the first round less interesting. This is obviously designed to lessen the chance of mid-major getting to the Sweet 16 and beyond and it makes for a less interesting tournament early which is most certainly what we saw last year when the first day especially there was a lack of exciting games. Second major complaint was the placement of Tennessee. The Vols were on the edge of getting a 1 seed, were the only team to beat Memphis (and did so on the road) and still got stuck with the hardest road to the Final Four of any of the two seeds and you could make the argument that possibly on Washington State has a harder route to the Final Four of any of the top 16 seeds. I’d give the Vols a very small chance of surviving the possible gauntlet of Butler, Louisville and Carolina (in Charlotte) to get to San Antonio. I had minor quibbles with the seeding of the following teams: Oregon (too high), Miami (too high), Vanderbilt (too high), Pitt (too low) and most egregious Portland State receiving a 16 seed over American and UMBC to name two teams that got 15’s. Here is my latest projections region by region though I am sure this will change from my right before the tourney starts picks which I will post to ESPN tomorrow morning. These picks are likely too conservative while my first brackets may have been a bit too bold, looking for that perfect combination is tough but I have a pretty good track record of picking brackets and last year won my Yahoo pool by placing 7 of 8 in the Elite 8 and getting every game in the Final Four correct:
East : My general thoughts are that North Carolina has a very difficult bracket for being the #1 seed of the entire tournament but they won’t have to leave the state to get to the Final Four and if I what I heard is correct, has only lost one NCAA tournament game as the #1 seed in the East Regional. If any of the games were not played in the state of Carolina I’d give WSU or Louisville or even Tennessee a very good shot to beat the Heels.
Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16 – The Butler Bulldogs, if they get past South Alabama, have a legit shot to beat Tennessee. Though the Vols will be playing quite close to home and won’t have to face a crowd that will jump behind the underdogs Butler can dictate tempo and win a free throw contest.
First Round Winners:

UNC (1)
Indiana (9)
Notre Dame (5)
WSU (4)
St Joes (11)
Louisville (3)
Butler (7)
Tennessee (2)

Second Round Winners:

UNC (1)
WSU (4)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UNC (1)
Louisville (3)

Elite 8 Winner:

UNC (1)

Midwest: On paper Kansas has the easiest route of any of the #1 seeds to the Final Four which is a bit peculiar as they are generally regarded as the lowest ranked of the #1 seeds. Kansas has a possible dangerous game versus a hot and athletic Clemson team and the well coached Badgers of Wisconsin could prove difficult to defeat in Detroit. What I don’t like about Kansas is Bill Self’s coaching record in NCAA tournament games when he isn’t the coach of Tulsa.

Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: Davidson, who gets the advantage of playing in their home state for the first two rounds, playing a fellow mid-major in the first round who has to travel 2700 miles and play at 9:30 AM Pacific and getting a shot at the weakest of the two seeds in Georgetown.

First Round Winners:

KU (1)
Kent State (9)
Clemson (5)
Vanderbilt (5)
K-State (11)
Wisconsin (3)
Davidson (10)
Georgetown (2)

Second Round Winners:

KU (1)
Clemson (5)
Wisconsin (3)
Georgetown (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

KU (1)
Wisconsin (3)

Elite Eight Winner:

KU (1)

South: This is a brutal region that typically doesn’t see the #1 seed advance to the Final Four and I believe that this year will be no different. Not only does Memphis face a very difficult Sweet 16 matchup versus either Pitt or Michigan State even if they survive that they’d play a likely game versus Texas in Houston. I don’t think Memphis can coast on athletic ability alone and the free throw issue will haunt them one of these games as it did versus Tennessee.

Best shot at a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: The Temple Owls who have played very well down the stretch could steal a few wins from Michigan State and Pitt before they battle Memphis.

First Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Miss St (8)
Mich St (5)
Pitt (4)
Marquette (6)
Stanford (3)
St Mary’s (10)
Texas (2)

Second Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Pitt (4)
Stanford (3)
Texas (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

Pitt (4)
Texas (2)
Elite Eight Winner:

Texas (2)

West: It almost seems to easy to me for UCLA to get to the Final Four and that scares me because having watched a large amount of Bruins games this year they tend to not blow anyone out so if they get in a situation where Josh Shipp is cold and Love gets in foul trouble they could go down early busting brackets nationwide in matchup versus a Texas A & M or UConn. The Arizona Wildcats are an intriguing 10 seed who if they can get past the horrific gauntlet of playing West Virginia and Duke in Washington DC would suddenly become a threat to win the region as they’d get to play in Phoenix on the second weekend. When it comes down to it though I just can’t not take UCLA to win this region. On paper it seems like this is a bracket that will play mainly to form but I have a feeling that at the end we could see it being the bracket that is the most busted up of them all.

Best Chance for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: If the Baylor Bears can control the tempo and keep running they can knock off Purdue and Xavier who are both quite deliberate defensively oriented teams.

First Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
Texas A & M (9)
Drake (5)
UConn (4)
Baylor (11)
Xavier (3)
West Virginia (7)
Duke (2)

Second Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
UConn (4)
Xavier (3)
Duke (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UCLA (1)
Xavier (3)

Elite Eight Winner:
UCLA (1)

Final Four Predictions Rundown:

I truly hate taken 3 # 1 seeds to the Final Four and this isn’t necessarily the bracket I would submit in to any bracket pool but I am having trouble spotting the obvious take down games that I was able to find last year. In addition the Big 12 has not been to adept at getting teams to the Final Fo On the left side of the bracket I see Kansas/UNC as being an epic match-up. If Bill Self can get the monkey off his back and get to this game I see him continuing his new found mojo and knocking off ex-Jayhawk Roy Williams. I am sure we will all be so sick about hearing about how hard Tyler Hansborough works by them that it will be a relief to have this year’s version of the Great White Hope vanquished. Carolina is a very solid team but tend to have trouble at times consistently making outside shots. This is what cost them last year in the Georgetown game and this should be their downfall as well this year. On the right side of the bracket I think UCLA has the defensive ability to slow down DJ Augustine enough to mitigate the pro-Longhorn crown you’d find in San Antonio.

In what should be a better Finals matchup than we have seen in a few years I see UCLA cutting down the nets for a team that will have three guys drafted in the top 15 picks in Collison, Westbrook and Love.

6 Pac 10 Teams in In

Emily and Evie at Max's
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

With the Georgia Bulldogs winning today I figured that no more than 6 Pac 10 teams would get in. Once I saw Villanova make it was obvious that ASU was not going to get a bid. I think Oregon was overseeded at 9 but at 9 they have hardly any chance at getting to the Sweet 16 while at an 11 or 12 (where they in all reality should be seeded they would have a harder first round game but would avoid the early battle with a 1 seed).

Pac 10 Tourney

Emily on Cannon Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Just watched Cal hold off UW, wouldn't be surprised to see Cal win again tomorrow. UCLA is #1 in the West win or lose so a few extra days rest could help. If anyone wants a great example of what they call "Coach Speak" I hope they caught FSN's pre game interview with Kevin O'Neil. O'Neil basically said nothing, the interview was a waste of everyone's time. The man has the personality of Lloyd Carr it appears. As a final thought congrats to the Portland State Vikings on making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in their history.

Bubble Watch

Where is Nemo?
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here is what we know: With USC beating Stanford they have sealed up a bid no matter what happens around the country between now and Sunday and that leaves 4 Pac 10 teams as locks. We also know that UCLA is getting the benefit of the doubt from the zebras who as usual have embarrased the Pac 10. We know that Arizona could have sealed a bid and killed Oregon had they won Saturday night and they didn't. We know that no Pac 10 team has ever made it at 9-9 but this year a 8-10 team might make it over two 9-9 teams who both swept said team. We know that Oregon could go back and look at any of 5 games this year and had they gotten a win in any of them there would be no further conversation needed. We know that Lisa Love could have done a better job at not scheduling such a cream puff OOC schedule at Arizona State this year. We know that Kevin O'Neil is no Lute Olson. We know the next week is going to be very interesting the Pac 10 could get as many as 7 teams in or just 4.