Pac 10 Power Poll Week Six

The big story of the week was no doubt Cal’s ending of the Mountain West’s domination over the Pac 10 by beating Colorado State in Berkeley. Oh whoops, I guess there was a big event that occurred in Corvallis last Thursday that needs to be mentioned first. Kudos to the Oregon State Beavers for making the winning streak over USC in games played in the state of Oregon to 3. This means that USC has not beaten an Oregon school in the post Leinart/Bush era on the road and that has to be a bit disturbing to Pete Carroll who has other than that only dropped two other games in that time frame both in Los Angeles. Oregon State did something which I haven’t seen any team do since the 2001 Vegas Bowl and Utah and that is dominate USC completely on both sides of the line for an entire half. OSU was physical and played it straight up with USC and it proved to be the correct game plan. When it looked like USC was going to come out in the 3rd and dominate the Beavers didn’t panic and kept getting first down to extend drives even if it didn’t mean scoring points. This was key because it killed clock and kept their defense fresh. Now what does this all mean, well # 1 USC is not the dominant squad we imagine they would be and a bit of the luster is coming off of Pete Carroll but with the losses sustained in the SEC last weekend I think USC still has a punchers shot to make the BCS championship game if the dominoes fall their way. Second it opens up the Rose Bowl chances for just about everyone except the Washington schools and UCLA, beat USC and win out and you’ll go to the Rose Bowl. This makes the season a bit more interesting for teams like Oregon and the Cal/ASU winner, while Arizona, due to the fact that of the legit contenders without a conference loss left, are the only to get USC on their home field. This means they might have the best shot at being the first non-USC squad to represent the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl since the 2002 Cougs if they can survive the rest of their schedule with only one additional loss. In other new Washington missed their likely best chance at a win until the Apple Cup with a home loss to Stanford and to add insult to injury the loss of Jake Locker for up to 8 weeks. Ryan Fouch actually showed some better promise as to throwing the ball than Locker but with time to adjust game plans I’d expect to see UW opponents drop a lot of players back in to coverage and try to force UW to beat them on the ground which will not be successful. The Willingham era is over in all but the official sense. He will likely coach out the rest of the year but resign after the Apple Cup. UCLA did score some points in the home loss to Fresno but the Bulldogs are a terrible defensive team, luckily they get to play WSU this week. Cal and Oregon had dominant performances against bad opponents, the only newsworthy item of those two games was the injury to Jahvid Best who now looks to miss the ASU game this week.
1. USC (1) – Typically you lose at #1 and you drop but I can’t see this happening this week due to the lack of strength among the other contenders. The gap is smaller but on a neutral field I still like USC way more than any other team in the conference. USC will be angry and wants to take it out on Oregon. USC is very much alive in the national championship race, and Oregon, with a win here could become in the discussion as well.
2. UO (2) – Total domination by Oregon, it makes them really have to look back at the cheap shot that knocked out Jeremiah Masoli against Boise State and wonder what if. The Ducks now have no margin of error from here on out. They can’t spend half the game with the wheels spinning like what occurred with Purdue and Boise State to have any chance to pull off the win.
3. Cal (3)- Cal was able end the Pac 10’s losing streak to Mountain West teams and seems to have recovered from the debacle at Maryland. The Bears can all but stick a fork in ASU with a win this week but won’t have Jahvid Best so expect more of an aerial assault from Cal
4. OSU (6) – The Beavs beat a number one team for the first team since 1967 which quite the accomplishment but they can’t rest on their laurels as they are venturing in to a hornet’s nest in Salt Lake City. The Beavs have to be seriously regretting the Stanford loss as they would be in all effects two games up on USC in the battle for the Pac 10 championship.
5. ASU (4) – ASU is in the middle of a gauntlet schedule that could very likely lead to season killing 5 game losing streak. The last time Rudy Carpenter played in Berkeley he was physically beat up by the Bears D-Line. Expect lots of pressure and a Devil loss.
6. UA (5) – Arizona hosts Washington and should quietly wait in the weeds with an easier early part of the schedule in league play before they host Cal and USC later in the month.
7. LSJU (7) – Got a road win in Seattle now must go to Notre Dame. Stanford could win this one which would do the nation a favor and eliminate any chance of Notre Dame stealing a BCS bid.
8. UCLA (9)- The question is whether the offense is back or whether it was just a poor Fresno defense that allowed UCLA yards and points. I’d aim with the poor defense by FSU. UCLA can’t afford a slip up to WSU at home.
9. UW (8) – Jake Locker is effectively out for the year not sure how much more this team can take.
10. WSU (10) - WSU could be a first division team, in the Big Sky.

Power Poll Week Five

Well the PAC 10 is now down to one undefeated team and for the 7th time in the last 9 games Oregon had it’s starting quarterback injured. This time Jeremiah Masoli was speared on a late hit that really should have led to an ejection but didn’t. For some reason Oregon stubbornly kept running the ball with Chris Harper when everyone in the entire stadium except for Chip Kelly seemed to know that a run was coming every play. Finally in the third quarter Oregon put in Darron Thomas who led the Ducks to 3 touchdowns via the air but it was just not enough. The Ducks have to look back and kick themselves and the loss just added to the fuel of it being USC and the Seven Dwarves. In the AP no Pac 10team is ranked outside of #1 USC. In other news Stanford got a win versus Bay Area rival San Jose State which should have been no surprise. Give Harbaugh credit for not overlooking this rival who has beat the Trees a fair amount of times over the last decade. UCLA was pretty much throttled on their home field by Arizona making it seem even more and more that the Bruins win over Tennessee was a complete fluke. The Bruins have 2 and 10 or 3 and 9 written all over them while Arizona got a big road win it its quest to finally make a bowl game again and maybe save Mike Stoops job. Arizona State showed that the Pac 10 outside of USC in not anywhere near the level of the SEC this year, the Devils weren’t really in this game from the get go and can now mark down 2008 as a likely lost season. Finally the Washington State Cougars found a team they could actually beat, too bad that said team is a mediocre Big Sky team and the Vikings at the same time knocked out the Cougars top two quarterbacks. Gary Rodgers it appears has now played his last game and the Cougs have won their last game unless they catch UW or UCLA on a really flat effort day.
1. USC (1) – Should roll tonight in Corvallis, the only thing that might derail a BCS Championship appearance by USC is having undefeated BIG 12 and SEC teams jump ahead of USC in the final coaches poll then the numbers would be very close and a ton of controversy were occur. This in the end may end up being Carroll’s best squad ever. He’s shown he can recover from the many losses of assistant coaches over the last 5 years that have used USC as a springboard to other jobs.
2. UO (2) – I’d rank them lower if I could, not sure there is much difference between Cal and Oregon right now but even though the Ducks lost they were playing with their 4th and 5th string true freshman quarterbacks most of the game. I’d imagine any team in the country might have struggled with BSU with the same scenario
3. Cal (3)- Cal has a chance to end the Mountain West’s five game advantage against the Pac 10. Absolutely a game Cal cannot drop after a bye week.
4. ASU (4)- The Devils were overmatched versus Georgia and now get a week off before going to Strawberry Canyon in a key game for the Devils to have any shot at the Holiday Bowl. With a game at USC the week after that before hosting Oregon, ASU could find itself with a 5 game losing streak that would likely mean the end of the Carpenter era.
5. UA (6)- Arizona is probably one more road win away from all but locking up a bowl appearance. They get two weeks to prepare for Washington at home.
6. OSU (5)- Oregon State is likely going to be 1-5 after the next two Thursday games. No criticism for losing to USC but I think they over scheduled themselves with having to play Penn State and Utah on the road in the same year. Boo on the fans for not even selling out Bean Dip for USC on national tv. If it weren’t for Duck fans buying up seats the crowd would be even less for this one. Here’s a clue, you’ve known for 8 months the game would be on Thursday, take a half or full day off from work and then all of Friday and make it to the game Beaver County.
7. LSJU (7)- Did what they needed to do and that is beat San Jose State. They have likely their best shot at a Pac 10 road win this week in Seattle, a win is completely needed to keep the bowl hope alive.
8. UW (8)- The Dawgs are the only winless team in the conference and have to be still smarting from the whooping that the Sooners laid on them. Willingham is dead man walking and has been for over a year but a loss here and the walking papers may come Saturday night.
9. UCLA (9) – Have frankly played dreadful offensive football for all but 1 quarter this season. Slick Rick and Nor Chow will need to wait to 2009 to get this baby back on track. Look for Fresno to come in to the Rose Bowl with a ton of fans of rough up a Pac 10 team further negating the value of the conference in the eyes of the nation’s fans and media.
10. WSU (10) – In the battle of 3rd string quarterbacks Washington State is overmatched big time against Oregon. Look for the Ducks to go over 350 yards rushing in a contest that will be decided by the mid second quarter.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Four

Well there were a few bright spots this week, one being the dominant performance by the USC Trojans who look like they might not get challenged this year, another was Oregon State getting a win for the first time this year and then finally Oregon has to be happy to snag victory from the arms of defeat at Purdue. On the other hand last Friday and Saturday, it can be argued, was perhaps the worst day of play by the Pac 10 as a whole in the history of the league. Washington State, UCLA and Washington were obliterated while Stanford, Cal, Arizona and ASU all lost games they should, on paper at least, have won. What the breakdown of all this means is that the Pac 10’s OOC record is really not looking good and that will hurt all teams outside of USC in the quest to get a second team to the BCS. I could easily see a scenario where Oregon goes 11-1 but gets kicked in the teeth by the Trojans and ends up at around 8th in the country but gets stuck in the Holiday Bowl. Pac 10 fans need to cheer against Utah, BYU, East Carolina and Notre Dame this year. At this point if you take USC out of the equation there is no doubt in my mind that if you compared the 9 Mountain West schools to the 2nd through 9th Pac 10 teams that overall the Mountain West is better. That is not a good sign for the 9 dwarves of the Pac 10 at all. As for this week we have a light schedule that is looking lackluster now after ASU lost to Mountain West doormat UNLV. ESPN Gameday is now not coming to Tempe and the Devils are not ranked in the Top 25 as the Bulldogs come to town. ASU has the chance to get their season back on track and highly ranked non-conference teams do have a history of losing night games in Tempe. Stanford simply needs to get things done and not blow another game to San Jose State, while the Cougs have their best chance for a win this year when Jerry Glanville brings his pigskin footbrawlers to Pullman. The remaining games are a non-conference tilt at Autzen between Oregon and Boise State where all eyes will be on the Ducks quarterback play and the Mildcats roll in to Pasadena to take on a UCLA team that thought they were playing BYE but was actually playing BYU.
1. USC (1) – Simple physically beat down and outclassed Ohio State. The Trojans will not overlook Oregon State like they did the last time they played in Corvallis. The game is on September 25th so the Trojans will be watching TV this weekend.
2. UO (3) – The Ducks didn’t bring their A game against Purdue and it showed but the team gutted out a win in less than ideal situations and got key special teams performances from Jairus Byrd and Matt Evensen. Boise State should bring an interesting matchup, I predict that BSU will try to sell out early to the run so the Ducks should try to go downfield early with Masoil. Roper may indeed be back for the USC game now. The Ducks should be 5-0 rolling in to that game since they face a scrimmage next week in Pullman.
3. Cal (2) – I will give Cal a pass for their performance in College Park last weekend. First of all why agree to a 9 AM Pacific start time, second of all why do you not fly in until 7PM local time the night before? Cal can now spend 2 weeks preparing for the Mighty Colorado State Rams.
4. ASU (4) – Classic trap game loss by the Devils. Now instead of hosting ESPN Gameday the Devils see themselves outside the Top 25 and will host the #3 team in the country in a game that could get ugly if the Devils can’t protect Rudy.
5. OSU (9) – Well they got their win but now face two likely losses after a bye this week. I’d rank this team lower but they were the only team below Oregon and USC who actually won this week so there is nowhere else to go.
6. UA (6) – Not terribly surprised the Cats lost to New Mexico but now they need to regroup and win a road game in LA. The Cats should be a better team than UCLA but it could depend on which UCLA team shows up. Stoops loses here and making a bowl game gets that much tougher.
7. LSJU (7)- Hurricane Ike kind of throw them for a bit of a loop with the early start date, probably not a game that the Trees were going to win regardless but one they could have won with a better effort. They can’t afford to choke to San Jose State yet again.
8. UW (9)- Worst loss in the history of Husky Stadium, I think that sums it up. Willingham seems to have survived to the bye week and because of that I think he lasts the year and resigns after the Apple Cup.
9. UCLA (5) – Nice use of that bye week UCLA. Did you guys think that the season was only one week long? Better be ready for Arizona this week.
10. WSU (10) – The last best chance for a win is this week versus Portland State. Now glory days in Pullman, how many fans make the drive from the Westside for this one?

Power Poll Week Three

The second week of the season is a traditionally bland week across the country with many matchups between BCS programs and non-BCS/I-AA programs. This was no different in the Pac 10 aside from Oregon State’s ill-fated trip to Happy Valley which was anything but happy. The Beavers clearly are going to have a horrible season unless they get drastically better play on both sides of the line, they better beat Hawaii because they are going to have major trouble not being 1-4 . Washington showed they have some heart but were torpedoed by a correct interpretation of a terrible rule. The Huskies deserved overtime but there lack of blocking on the 35 yard PAT attempt was as bad as the call that led to the 15 yard penalty on Locker. Oregon, ASU, Zona and Cal put up incredible offensive numbers while WSU looks like they have a great shot at not winning a game in league play. The LA schools were off but this week both face harsh tests in Ohio State and BYU. This week is packed with great games so I am glad to not be at Autzen for a week and to be home in front of the TV.
1. USC (1) – Nice to have a bye week before Ohio State. Pete Carroll doesn’t lose non-conference games, particularly at home. I see USC winning but I might think about taking the points with OSU if I was a betting man.
2. Cal (4) – Unlike UO and ASU the Bears blew out a patsy on the road rather than at home. This team is getting slept on by the media but faces a long road trip out east to play at 9 AM Pacific to an angry and embarrassed Maryland team who lost a Sun Belt team. Cal should roll but the game will be closer than the talent difference because of the time and distance factor.
3. UO (3) – The Ducks played great setting a record for most offensive yards in a game. This record wouldn’t have likely been broken if the Ducks had forced any turnovers. This led to longer drives and more yards. Expect to see a very slow turf at Purdue to try and slow down Oregon. Purdue will get some points but I think the Ducks will wear them down in the end. Blount actually maybe more effective on grass than turf so I’d expect to see a two-headed attack with him and Johnson in the same backfield from time to time.
4. ASU (2) – ASU played fine against Stanford, I dropped them because I think at this point Oregon and Cal are better teams. UNLV should present no problem at all to the Devils.
5. UCLA (5) – The state of Utah has not been kind to UCLA and I expect the Cougars to pull out the win against the rested Bruins. UCLA got mauled last year by the Utes but have played the Cougars many times over the last few seasons so no one should be surprised at what each team throws at the other even with the additions of Chow and Neuheisal.
6. Arizona (6) – Rolled up on Toledo but now face a dicey game against rival New Mexico in Albuquerque. This is a game that always means more to UNM than to UA and Rocky Long’s boys won last year in Tucson. Dangerous game for UA.
7. LSJU (8) – They played tough for the first half but faded to the more talented ASU team. Stanford I think is one year away from a bowl game, the schedule is too tough this year with only 5 home dates. The face a fairly tough TCU team coming off a disappointing 2007 campaign. The Trees if they want to have a chance at a bowl game can’t afford to lose games like this one.
8. UW (10) – The Dawgs played their hearts out but in the end lost, in part to a stupid rule. Unfortunately Oklahoma comes in this week to Montlake. With a bye week coming up next week expect to see Willingham resign or be fired this Saturday night.
9. OSU (7) – There is no doubt that the Beavs have some very talented skill position players but they need to shore up the line play and they need to do it ASAP. Hawaii they should be able to outmuscle for once but USC is in the wings on Thursday the 25th. They need to put Penn State game behind them.
10. WSU (10) – Baylor likely presents the last best chance for a win versus a 1-A opponent for the Cougars, though you never know what can happen in an Apple Cup. Getting routed the way they did versus Cal at home is beyond painful.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Two

Dominant offensive performances were seen all around the conference this week but the big story has to be the triumphant return of Rick Neuheisal and Norm Chow to Los Angeles and the win they were able to pull out of a hat versus Tennessee on national TV this Labor Day. I didn’t watch much of the first half and really didn’t miss anything other than a terrible offensive performance by both team but especially UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft. Chow and Neuheisal deserve credit for staying with the kid after 4 first half picks. Somehow, due to a combination of better accuracy and Tennesse dropping back in a deep zone against a weak armed QB UCLA was able to throw drives together while on defense get some big league run stuffing from their very solid up the middle defense. UCLA always seems to play OOC teams tough and this game was just another example of that. The Bruins will likely still face major struggles this year they should end of making a bowl which before the Tennessee game was not a likelihood in my book. In other news USC is good, really good and have the fortune of playing Oregon, Ohio State, ASU and Cal all in the Coliseum. Does anyone see a loss on that schedule except possible against U of A on 10/25? Give Stanford credit for maximizing their talent and taking advantage of some dumb mistakes by Oregon State but clearly the less talented team won last Thursday. This was a bad loss for the Beavers, who pending a miracle are looking at a 1-3 start. I am not sure really what to take out of the Oregon/Washington game other than that Washington is really bad, Oregon should be able to start out 5-0 and win at least 8 games but the second half of the schedule is dicey. As for Washington I’ve heard rumors that the guy they have in their cross-hairs for taking over for the dead man walking Willingham regime is Chip Kelly. Kelly going to UW would be beyond a coup – it removes your rivals second most important asset (after Uncle Phil) while at the same time brings in a dynamic offensive mind who would likely work wonders year one with Jake Locker. Oregon cannot let this happen but it is going to be very hard for them to keep Chip Kelly from taking a head coaching job. If Oregon were to lose him it would better to lose him to a non-Pac 10 school. Outside of WSU the rest of the conference played fairly well other than Nate Longshore who I think we can officially put the fork in to. From Heisman candidate on the #2 in the country to not starting in less than a year, Cal wins by 21 if he doesn’t play.
1. USC (1) – Looked truly dominant, they could be back to the form of the 2004 team. Sanchez showed no rust and looked much better than last year and the Trojans get an extra week for Ohio State who will have a banged up Beanie Wells. I’d eat my hat if this team doesn’t play for the BCS championship even with 1 loss.
2. ASU (2) – I’d move them down but I had them 2 last week and from what I read pulled almost everyone for the second half of the NAU game and treated it like a scrimmage. Stanford will provide them a nice chance to get in a game versus a quality opponent before Georgia comes to town but at the same time this game has “trap game” written all over it. Interesting that Stanford will have played two Pac 10 games already while most of the league has played zero.
3. UO (3) – Who needs Dennis Dixon? Just kidding but clearly QB is not as big as a worry for Oregon as I had thought. I think by mid-season Jeremiah Masoli will be playing the majority of snaps as he better fits the scheme. Utah State will be treated as a scrimmage by the Ducks, I’d expect Roper won’t play in the second half nor will Jeremiah Johnson.
4. Cal (4) – They beat a similar team to themselves in a rapidly improving Michigan State. Game would have been closer if Longshore hadn’t played. I still think this team has the second best talent in the league but they need play some better defense it appears. No Pac-10 road game is easy but I look for a comfortable win in Pullman this weekend.
5. UCLA (9) – The Tennessee win was kind of a perfect storm scenario and they Bruins shouldn’t be expecting to get that kind of performance every week against Top 20 teams, at the same time the Bruins do have the potential to go bowling this year and I didn’t think that last week.
6. UA (6) – Idaho stinks but beating anyone 70-0 is impressive. They should have no issues versus Toledo this week.
7. OSU (5) – Yeah they lost to Stanford but if they can fix their issues on the front seven with run defense and if Moevao can have a little better ball security they will be in the mix for a top 5 Pac-10 finish. Playing at Penn State might be a bit too much too ask at this point for a young team.
8. LSJU (8) – Very nice win versus OSU, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of getting everything he can out of his players but depth and athleticism are clearly lacking. Going in to Tempe and looking for a win is probably too much to ask at this point. The schedule makers did Stanford no favors with only 5 home games this year.
9. WSU (10) – The only reason I have them 9th is that they have an easier schedule than Washington and have a better chance of having their QB survive the season. They should be able to give Cal a game for a half but I don’t see an upset occurring.
10. UW (7) – The Huskies are in major trouble. They have a schedule set up like they are defending national champs not a below average Pac-10 team. They need to get better protection for Locker who will face long odds in lasting the season, the Dawgs could beat BYU but will face tough odds against a physical team needing a BCS conference road win to make their case for a BCS berth if they were to go 12-0.