Pac 10 Power Poll & Week Two Review

Another week that saw some more Pac 10 teams getting roughed up on national TV providing more cannon fodder for the dreaded East Coast Media Bias argument. Well here are the positives, USC moves up to #2 in the country without playing a game, ensuring that provided they win out this year they will be playing the BCS championship in all likelihood provided the schedule gods don’t do them in. Winning all those games will be easier said than done especially with Notre Dame looking to actually be the good team many thought they would be based on the thrashing of Penn State. More positives were the Huskies showing a pulse by playing tough in Norman despite the loss as well as Cal and Oregon beating quality opponents. On the downside of-course were the performances of Arizona, Oregon State and Stanford who were either trashed on national TV (we are looking at you Beavers and Wildcats) or pulling a traditional el-foldo to your local rival that makes their season every few years by knocking you off in a game where you look down on them (Stanford this is you, the third time in the past 6 years they have lost to SJSU and let us not forget the whole UC-Davis fiasco of last year). This week the Pac 10 has a great opportunity to show the world that the Big 12 is in fact the little twelve. I predict that Oregon, USC, ASU and WSU will dispatch Oklahoma, Nebraska, CU and Baylor which should push the Pac 10 ahead of the Big 12 in terms of non-conference SOS (this likely won’t be the case when the year is over because of the 9 game Pac 10 schedule and the two additional teams the Big 12 has).

The poll:

1. USC (1) – Great week for USC, Texas gets dispatched by Ohio State and the Trojans roll in to the 2 spot in the coaches poll while having a week off to prepare for the test of Nebraska who rolled up on Nicholls State. Nebraska is improving in the west coast offense but to win in the Coliseum is too much too ask for a young team going through such a sea-change in offensive systems.
2. UO (2) - Great teams win tough games on the road that they are supposed to win. The Ducks avoided the WAC flu that took down Oregon State and Stanford and won a tough, hard-hitting game played in the hornets nest called Fresno. Kudos to Mike Bellotti and his special teams coach for having the stones to call that fake field goal option that sealed the win. Oregon lost Jackie Bates for likely the regular season to a broken leg. I don’t think his loss will hurt much against run-oriented Oklahoma but the loss will sting against the Pac 10 foes. Oregon could be having a very special season but the stakes and difficulty goes up this week. A healthy Jonathan Stewart is a must.
3. ASU (6) - Our big gainer this week, they played very well offensively against Nevada, certainly the best game any of the 4 teams playing WAC foes. Colorado is reeling right now and ASU should be able to give them a death blow as to having any chances at pulling out a winning season in Dan Hawkins first year. Hawkins by the way was the chap who replaced Dirk Koetter at Boise State. ASU faces Cal in two weeks which in a sense will likely be a Rose Bowl elimination game.
4. Cal (4) – Though their defense struggled early in the end Cal pummeled a quality Big 10 opponent in a national televised game. With a virtual bye week this week (well as long as Cal doesn’t pull a New Mexico) with Portland State in town the Bears have two weeks to prepare for the aerial attack of Arizona State which should prove to be a very entertaining match-up of former Oregon offensive coordinators turned Pac 10 head coaches.
5. UCLA (3) – Didn’t see a lick of this game but based on the score I expected more from UCLA in facing a team coming off a 1-10 season in Rice. In UCLA’s defense Rice runs a form of the triple-option that UCLA has likely not faced in many years and it makes a hard transition to prepare in one week. They get a bye week to prepare for the improved Huskies in Seattle. To compete for the Pac 10 title they can’t afford losses to teams like Washington.
6. WSU (8) – Rebounded from their licking by Auburn to whack Dennis Erickson’s Vandals who had played quite well the week before in their visit to East Lansing. The Cougars obviously can put up points and yards via the air, they need to be careful to not look past Baylor who has improved. A win here keeps the possibility for a bowl alive for the Cougars who should be able to win 4 Pac 10 games.
7. UW (10) – Washington showed a great deal of character by hanging with Oklahoma for more than a half. In the end the Huskies just don’t have the guys on the lines to beat a team like Oklahoma. They face an interesting match-up with Fresno State this week. Fresno will look to run the ball with Dwayne Wright and they did with some success against Oregon. In the end I think Fresno will win this game but the Huskies are certainly improved from last year.
8. OSU (5) - After getting spotted a 14-0 lead the Beavs basically repeated their performance of their last trip to Boise and after a dumb interception led to a Bronco touchdown the Beavs basically gave up. In a twist of irong Dennis Erickson will be coming to town. Due to the fact that a vast majority of Beaver fans likely want Dennis Erickson to be coaching the Beavers next year you wonder if some are secretly hoping for a loss by the Beavs to that other team from the Potato State. This looks like a very long year in Corvallis and the Matt Moore should be ending soon.
9. UA (7) – Hey Herbstreit nice call on Tuitama being a Top 5 QB. Arizona got run in Baton Rogue in a game that I thought they should be able to keep with in 14 points. Good thing for Stoops that he pulled out that win against BYU, with Stephen F. Austin coming to town the Cats have a virtual bye week before they take on USC in two weeks. I think Stoops seat is getting a bit warm.
10. Stanford (10) – Again Stanford overlooked a local rival that can make their year by beating them. I give credit to Stanford for continuing to play San Jose State but I believe this is the third time they have lost to San Jose State since 1999. Preparing for Navy will be a tough game for the Trees. Due to the fact that they must play at Notre Dame this year the Navy game is a must win if they hope to have any chance at sniffing a bowl.

Pac 10 Power Poll and a review of Week One

In the eyes of the media the Pac 10’s performance was a failure and this can mainly be blamed on the Cal Bears and their ineffective QB play and defensive letdown. Though there is no shame in losing in Neyland Stadium the Bears look like they have fallen in to the trap where they will have problems beating teams that can keep Lynch and Forsett from running at will. As for the other two match-ups in the PAC10/SEC 3-fer WSU was not surprisingly outclassed by Auburn though I thought the Cougars would do a better job defensively against Auburn. USC showed that they still can dominate teams and the drop-off that some predicted may not occur there. Looking forward to this week there are some nice non-conference games out there that should pique interest but do to some of the match-ups the Pac 10 could take some more national hits. In addition there are 5 match-ups versus WAC teams looking to make some noise out west. Here is this week’s power poll:

1. USC (1) Playing at Arkansas is no easy task they play very tough at home as many an SEC foe can attest too. However USC continued to roll and answered the critics. They know have two weeks to prepare for Nebraska though having a bye week so early in the season is not helpful for the Trojans. I think Nebraska is a tough match-up but the two weeks off and home cooking should led USC to a solid win in two weeks. Barring some major injuries and suspensions USC will be out top squad next week as they can’t lose to that team called BYE.
2. UO (4) The Oregon Ducks answered all the questions that the media have of them and more after pounding Stanford at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks played with confidence ran the ball effectively and didn’t make too many mistakes for the first game of the season. They will face a tougher test on the ground from Fresno State as well as playing in a very hostile environment with WAC refs so those factors should make this game close. In the Oregon seems to have just enough to beat Fresno every year and I see that continuing as long as the Ducks avoid interceptions. A win versus the Bulldogs could likely vault Oregon close to 10^th in the nation by the time they play a shaky Oklahoma team in Autzen Stadium.
3. UCLA (5) Utah was expected to give UCLA a hard test but Ben Olson performed well and the Bruins cruised to a victory. With an easy match-up at home this week versus Rice I expect UCLA to quietly move up the national polls and will likely still be undefeated when they play Oregon on October 21^st due to getting to open the Pac 10 with games versus Washington, Stanford and Arizona (who by the way beat UCLA last year knocking the Bruins out of any chance at BCS bowl). The Ducks could either be reeling at this point or could be ranked in the Top 5 in the country.
4. Cal (2) There is no shame in losing to Tennessee but I think the Bears may have been listening too much to their press clippings. They need to get past last week’s performance and focus on getting consistent QB play as teams will be daring Cal to throw the ball down the field until the two-headed Longshore-Ayoob monster can get their footing.
5. OSU (6) They get to jump ASU because they played better against their Big-Sky opponent than ASU did. They face a tough test on Thursday night in Boise against an experienced 5^th year senior QB in Hermiston’s own Jared Zabransky. The Beavs need a better showing than the last time they ventured on the blue turf.
6. ASU (3) A big drop for ASU even after a win because they frankly struggled with Northern Arizona and I feel there is lingering team chemistry issues which may bubble to the surface. If ASU plays the same way against Nevada as they did against NAU they will likely lose. Koetter needs to get things on track before league play starts. He will face a likely very angry and possibly 0-2 Colorado Buffalo squad in two weeks in Boulder.
7. Arizona (8) They won an ugly game versus BYU but the important thing is they won it and this means that they likely will only need 4 Pac 10 wins to go to a bowl if they can hold off Stephen F. Austin. I expect U of A to get run down in Baton Rogue but their defense may keep the score closer than WSU and Cal did against their SEC foes.
8. WSU (7) I didn’t get a chance to see many highlights of this game but the Cougars were clearly outclassed by Auburn. To keep bowl hopes alive WSU needs to beat Idaho and Baylor, though both are perennial bad teams both teams played tough ball in their openers against good competition so the Cougars better not be overconfident or they could force them selves in to having to win 5 Pac 10 games to go to a bowl.
9. Stanford (9) The Cardinals looked outclassed in every aspect of the game against a much faster Oregon team. Stanford as always is a much better team on grass where their speed issues are less exposed. They can’t look past San Jose State who is a pesky squad who has knocked off the Cardinal in the past.
10. UW (10) Well they were tested again by San Jose State. Next the Huskies will get to venture in to the not so friendly confines of Norman Oklahoma before facing what could be a 2-0 Fresno State team in the Top 25. Things don’t look good on the schedule for Washington this year. I heard talk out of Montlake that this could be a 6 or 7 win team but I never bought in to such talk.

Pre-season Power Poll

Pac 10 Team Capsules and Power Poll - The first year of round robin conference play should be interesting and it will likely mean the end of any Pac 10 school getting in to the BCS championship game with one loss (which by the way has never happened anyhow though Oregon, UW and USC have come close only to be denied by computers). Not only is the Pac 10 hurt by having only 10 teams meaning fewer OOC games which tend to be won by major conferences who schedule down (please see the SEC and Big 12 for examples) but the addition of the 9^th conference game will also mean 5 more losses for the league while the other major conferences are feeding up on extra games with 1-AA schools, the Sun Belt and MAC. The Pac 10 champ will have truly earned their championship on the field.

Team Capsules for 2006

Arizona Wildcats (3 wins 4 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Stoops has cleansed himself of the Mackovic era and at least on paper has recruited well in particular on the defensive side of the ball. The team plays with a lot of toughness in what is considered often by the national media to be a “soft” or “finesse” league, whether that assumption is fair or not. What I don’t like: Mike Stoops’ sideline antics, we get it, he is hard nosed but it gets to the point of being embarrassing, how long will it be until the players tune him out? Bottom line: Willy Tuitama gained some experience late last year and that will help him this season but true sophomore QB’s rarely lead their schools to successful Pac 10 seasons. Arizona could have enough to make it to a bowl game if they can recover from their early season whipping in Baton Rouge, a step back to 4-8 or worse and they just may decide to go another direction coaching wise. Key game: October 21^st in Tucson versus Oregon State. A win here and Arizona could be bowl eligible for the first time since 1999.

Arizona State Sun Devils (7 wins 0 losses 5 tossups) What I like: Great offensive system which really seemed to gel around Rudy Carpenter after Sam Keller went down though both QB’s were among the top rated in the nation. What I don’t like: Dirk Koetter has not handled the Keller/Carpenter quarterback controversy well, ASU can’t afford an injury to Carpenter or the season could go down in flames. He may be the single most important player to his team in the entire conference with Sam Keller off to Nebraska. Bottom line: ASU in the last 30 years has typically lacked the heart and character to take the step up to consistently compete for Pac 10 titles (exception Jake Plummer) and has managed to underachieve despite all the built in advantages they have due to location (nice weather & facilities, beautiful coeds, major metropolitan area, proximity to Texas and California for recruiting). I expect another decent but in the end unfulfilling season for Koetter but with his contract being extended by his new AD he is safe job security wise. Key game: September 30^th in Tempe versus Oregon. Oregon could be a Top 10 team at this point if they can beat Fresno State and Oklahoma and Arizona State faces a likely loss to Cal the week before, whoever loses this game could be knocked out of the Rose Bowl race unless they can win road games at USC or Cal.

Cal Bears (7 wins 0 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Great running game and depth with Marshuan Lynch and Justin Forsett. The enthusiasm that Jeff Tedford has brought to what had been a morbid program since Bruce Snyder had left. They seem to be the only program in the Pac 10 that has been able to consistently stay in games with USC during the Pete Carroll era. What I don’t like Not much other than questions at quarterback, had Aaron Rodgers stayed for his senior season Cal may have been playing Texas instead of USC in the Rose Bowl last year. Tim Mixon may have been the Pac 10’s top returning cornerback and was a special teams stalwart, losing him to an ACL tear for the season is a blow. Bottom line: The Bears are the most likely school to beat USC in LA and if that occurs, the Pac 10 title could be Cal’s for the first time since the 1950’s. Key game: November 18^th in Los Angeles versus USC. This game could be for the Pac 10 title and could pin USC with their first Pac 10 home loss since 2001. Probably fair to say that at least on paper this could be the most significant game played by the California Bears in the modern era if both schools are still at the top of the Pac 10 standings in mid-November.

Oregon Ducks ( 4 Wins, 1 loss, 7 tossups) What I like: A second year in the spread should see Oregon’s offense excel to new heights. There seems to have been an injection of enthusiasm and excitement in Mike Bellotti’s decision to bring in Gary Crowton after Andy Ludwig left for Utah. What I don’t like: Having to replace Haloti Ngata, Anthony Trucks and the starting CB’s from the Pac 10’s top rated defense (quite a rarity in Eugene for that to happen) Bottom line: Oregon arguably has the nation’s toughest schedule and a stumble at Fresno State could start a tailspin that leads to a disappointing around .500 year for Oregon. They may well be a better team than last years 10-2 squad ( Oregon’s best win in 2005 was over California) but the record may not show it. Oregon is primed for a national championship run in 2007 and a nice 9 or 10 win season in 2006 should propel them high enough in the initial 2007 polls for that to become a possibility on paper. Key game: September 16^th in Eugene versus Oklahoma. Oregon needs to show the nation that they can handle a tough, physical nationally recognized power. A win here sets up Oregon nicely for the Pac 10 season as well as keeps them on the national radar for 2007 when they should have their best chance at a national run since Joey Harrington and company’s 2^nd place national finish in 2001 after a Fiesta Bowl victory over Colorado.

Oregon State Beavers ( 3 wins 1 loss 9 tossups) What I like: The Beavers return their entire offensive line and have a senior quarterback, All-American candidate Tight-end in Joe Newton, along with a kind home schedule in conference play. What I don’t like: Inexperience at wide-out and the lack of future NFL quality players on the roster. Player discipline has been an issue for the last few seasons Bottom line: The Beavers get Oregon, Cal and USC all at home in what has become one of the tougher places to play on the west coast. While the Beavers will not likely compete for a Pac 10 title they will play a great role in deciding who does. I don’t think the Beavers have a 2000 type run in them because I think they lack the athletes at DE and WR that the 2000 squad had. They could certainly end up with a nice 8-9 win season, which in Corvallis, is quite the accomplishment and should take the heat off of Riley who has faced a great deal of player conduct issues in the past few seasons. When it comes down to it this may be the hardest team of 2006 to predict how they will finish. Oregon State could finish anywhere between 3^rd and 8^th in the conference and it would not surprise me. Key game: Friday November 24^th in Corvallis versus Oregon. If Oregon State has a losing record going in to the Civil War he will be facing some major heat from the fan base and media for not living up to glory that the 2000 season brought to Oregon State fans under Dennis Erickson. That great season and a new stadium upgrade have led to higher expectations in Corvallis. Oregon State has not lost a home game to Oregon since 1996 and a loss here could really tighten the noose around Riley’s neck.

Stanford Cardinal (1 win 6 loses 5 tossups) What I like: The Trees have a sparkling new stadium which should help transform Palo Alto Saturdays in to a rollicking environment albeit with a wine and cheese crowd with the elimination of the track and 40,000 fewer seats. Stanford could easily go from having the worst football game day environment in the conference to one of the best in just one season due the stadium transformation. In addition Stanford played very tough on the road last year losing only at USC. What I don’t like: Stanford was pretty bi-polar last year, playing tough games with USC and Notre Dame and beating Arizona State but doing the unthinkable and losing to Cal State Davis which ultimately cost them the chance to play in a bowl game. The loss of standout LB Michael Okwo in fall training camp will cause Stanford to play this year without its best returning defender on what was already a very green unit. Bottom line: A step backward may led to two steps forward, too much was lost on the defensive side of the ball from 2005 to have much of a shot for a winning campaign so Harris will have to play a lot young players. The new stadium should certainly help in giving Stanford a home field advantage for the first ever. Key game: Saturday September 23^rd in Palo Alto versus Washington State. In a very winnable home game Stanford will first showcase its new stadium in a conference game. A winning season is unlikely but a opening home win will be a nice showcase for Walt Harris as he tries to build his program down on The Farm.

UCLA Bruins (6 wins 3 loses 3 tossups) What I like: Karl Dorrell had a very nice season in 2005 and made some in-roads in bridging some of the game between UCLA and USC in recruiting (not by bringing USC down but by bringing UCLA up the rankings) What I don’t like: Not many QB’s have been very successful after being away from the game for a mission like Ben Olson took no matter how much natural talent they have, too much talent was lost on defense and losing Maurice Jones-Drew to the NFL was an unexpected shock that stings UCLA. Bottom line: UCLA will regress back to the 7-8 win plateau that has been the norm most of the last decade, they have some excellent athletes all over the field but will likely not win as many close games with the departure of last year’s senior QB Drew Olson being Captain Comeback in leading UCLA to a handful of comeback wins. Key game: October 21^st in South Bend versus Notre Dame. UCLA has been off the national radar since 1998 and having becoming an absolute second banana in Los Angeles to the Trojans has put UCLA in the odd position of being a relatively unknown program in a huge media market that has increasingly become looked at nationally as irrelevant. What better way to regain national traction by knocking off a highly ranked (and defensively shaky) Notre Dame team with a senior QB on a Heisman run.

USC Trojans (8 wins 0 losses 4 tossups) What I like: The improvement that will be seen on USC’s defense and the continued stellar recruiting classes of Pete Carroll should keep them in contention for the national and league title for the foreseeable future. Getting to face their likely two toughest Pac 10 tests at Memorial Coliseum in Oregon and Cal. What I don’t like: It is almost impossible to sustain the hits they have taking in losing players to the NFL draft and injuries over the last few years. Depending on true freshman tailbacks to replace Reggie Bush and Lendale White will likely lead to a less balanced offense. Bottom line: Carroll has recruited amazingly well but all schools are pulled back to earth and I expect USC to drop at least one league game in 2006. Key game: December 3rd versus Notre a rematch of last year's classic could be a matchup of #1 versus #2 if everything falls in place

Washington Huskies (1 win 7 losses 4 tossups) What I like: Ty Willingham is a class act and I heard he is good at karaoke! Tailgating on those boats sure is fine and the view of the water and Mt Rainer sure are pretty. The Huskies have recruited fairly well in state the last few years What I don’t like: A lot to not like especially on offense with injuries, losses to graduation and low-talent level QB’s likely leading to Washington being in the position to have their defense needing to step up big for them to have any chance of success in a offensive favored conference. Washington was really once one of the nation’s best programs and their stadium inspired fear. Now Husky Stadium is a shell of itself and people realize that the while the view of the surrounding area sure is nice the view of the field is horrible because of the track. They Huskies had to hire a by-the-books guy like Willingham after all the shenanigans of the Rick Neuheisel era but whether the Tyee club has patience for his rebuilding program will be another story. If Washington can eek out 6 wins then Ty Willingham deserves Pac 10 coach of the year. Losing James Hasty to academics will prove painful. Key game: November 18^th in Pullman versus Washington State. In what will likely be a painful season in Seattle the Huskies could put a severe hurt to Bill Doba’s job security and make a statement that they are again the state’s best program to recruits with a win in the Apple Cup. Interestingly enough this is the only rivalry game that will be played on the traditional Rivalry Week Saturday in the conference. All 4 other in-state rivalry games have been moved back to later in the season with the addition of the 12^th game.

Washington State Cougars (2 wins 4 losses 6 tossups) What I like: There are some eerie similarities between the 1996 and 2005 WSU seasons. When everyone has counted out WSU they tend to have a great season as happened in 1997 and 2001. Lots of close loses, young talent & low expectations could get the Cougars in to the top half of the conference if they can win all the games they should win and steal a few they shouldn’t. Jason Hill may end up an All-American at WR if Ben Brink can get him the ball enough. What I don’t like: Bill Doba’s teams have had trouble winning close games, the question is whether they are almost there as a team primed for a breakout season or whether they were over-achieving to make those games close. A big question is whether the new running backs from the JUCO level can step in and replace Jerome Harrison who really helped WSU in having a balanced offensive attack last season Bottom line: In a best case scenario WSU can go out and win 8 games which is really what they should have won last year if they could have closed out games, the only game they really didn’t have a good chance of winning in 2005 was their game versus USC. The Cougars should beat a couple of good teams at home this year and have an excellent shot at going to a minor bowl if they can cut down on mistakes on offense. Key game: October 21^st versus Oregon. The Cougars can’t continue to fumble away winnable games to the Ducks if they hope to go back to the form they showed in 2001 to 2003. Oregon could either be flying or reeling at this point at the Cougars need to pounce on the Ducks and not let another close loss occur on the Palouse to the Ducks.

Pre-season Pac 10 Power Poll

1. USC – Until someone can beat them in conference I really can’t take them off the top of this list. It took the huge stones of Vince Young, arrogant and cockiness on field play by USC players and some questionable coaching by Pete Carroll to keep USC from being a Three-peat national champion.
2. California – The most likely team to knock USC out of its perch atop the Pac 10. If they can take car of business in Tennessee they well could be primed for a national run and will have the out of conference resume to prove it. The big question is whether they have the QB play to win close conference games down the stretch.
3. Arizona State – It was hard for me to decide between Oregon and Arizona State. As of right now I think they have fewer question marks than the Ducks do but the team is a Rudy Carpenter injury away from disaster.
4. Oregon – The Ducks have a brutal schedule. Though they may end up being a more complete team than the 2005 version it will be tough to match the record. They are one year away from the possibility of putting together a 2001 like run to the Pac 10 title together.
5. UCLA Bruins – If Ben Olson shakes off the rust and UCLA can find a playmaker at running back to step in for Maurice Drew they should be able to get back to a bowl game. The defense is green and last year wasn’t really that great anyhow. UCLA gutted out a lot of close wins last year and maybe lady luck will be against them in 2006.
6. Oregon State – I have to place OSU in the middle of the pack. They could finish anywhere between 3^rd and 8^th in this league, I like the running game and senior leadership but I question the overall talent level.
7. WSU – They have the playmakers at WR to have a huge year offensively but Ben Brink needs to cut his mistakes down for the Cougars to win the close games they lost last year.
8. Arizona – This is the year the Mike Stoops needs to put it all together. They are a chic pick around the country to have a breakout year, I don’t see it.
9. Stanford – Having a senior QB is a traditionally a harbinger for winning in this conference and only Oregon State, Washington and Stanford will be starting them as the season starts. However, I just see too many holes on this team defensively for them to have a winning season and I doubt they will be able to steal 3 road wins again like they did in 2005.
10. Washington – I don’t see a lot of upside here for Washington. They could win as few as one game this year but more likely I see a 3 or 4 win season if they can play tough at home. The loss of James Hasty to academics was quite a blow for a school that hasn’t had a 1000 yard rusher since 1997.

Pac 10 Coaches in 2006 - - - who’s seat is the hottest?

Before I come out with my conference predictions for 2006 I thought I’d come back from a long hiatus from Pac 10 sports and this blog to run down the coaches on the hot seat for this season. In terms of job safety here is how the list goes.

1. Jeff Tedford Cal – Tedford has a long term contract, a likely stadium upgrade, the overwhelming support of the fans and administration and seems to love Berkeley. He has built up a program from severe depths and has turned Cal in to a perennial Top 20 program, something no many folks would have believed in the Tom Holmoe era. Only way he isn’t in Berkeley next year is if an NFL team makes a blockbuster deal for him and I don’t see many openings there next year due to the huge turnover from last year. Odds of returning next year 99%
2. Mike Bellotti Oregon – Coach B was feeling the heat after the 2004 season and rebounded nicely in 2005 with 10 wins and a great start to the recruiting season in 2006. The future looks good for the dean of Pac 10 coaches though the Ducks face a very difficult slate in 2006. Bellotti has earned the right to retire as a Duck and I expect to see him spend another decade or so in Eugene. I could see Bellotti leaving only if the UO won the national championship next season. Odds of returning next year 98%
3. Pete Carroll – USC - The reason I don’t have Pete Carroll at the top of the list is that there are some possible skeletons with the regards to how the NCAA will look at the program with Reggie Bush house, Dwayne Jarrett rent scheme, the Ting brothers and steroids etcetera. Unless rampant scandal breaks and the NCAA drops a serious hammer I don’t see Carroll being forced out any time soon. Carroll will only leave if A he wants to take a NFL job or B he is shown to have been behind some very shady player recruitment and benefit enhancements and is forced out by the hammer of the NCAA coming down on Troy wicked hard. I don’t see either of those happening so 95% chance he comes back next year.
4. Walt Harris – Stanford – Stanford should struggle this year after losing a lot of senior talent from last year. The administration and fans will give him some time to try and win. With a new stadium however Harris will need to have some wins in 2007 to maintain his position here. 90% chance he returns unless he is offered a very high paying gig as an NFL OC ala Al Saunders
5. Dirk Koetter – Arizona State – I have him this high mainly because the new AD upped him for 5 more years. Without a new contract extension Koetter might have been the coach most on the hot seat. Another disappointing campaign will put pressure on him but the new AD Lisa Love has placed her faith in Koetter and she will stick with him for at least 3 more years before I could see him getting sacked. 89% chance of returning next year.
6. Bill Doba – Washington State – Doba is an older coach and a Mike Price disciple. This is a big year for the Cougs they lost a lot of close games ala 1996 and we all know what happened in 1997. If Doba does something like go out and finish 3-9 and lose to Washington then they could make a move in a new direction. I see them Cougs finishing around .500 which should maintain the status quo for next season. I’d give Doba a 80% chance of being the WSU coach in 2007.
7. Ty Willingham – Washington – Not much has gone well for Willingham since he left Stanford. This program can only go up but if the program regresses even more the could get a pink slip. I believe that Washington won’t make a move unless in state recruits complete revolt after next year. Given time I think Willingham can make UW competitive but they won’t be returning to the days of Don James any time soon. 75% chance of Willingham returning . . . now if they go 0-12 . . .
8. Mike Riley –Oregon State – Basically Beaver fans wish that Dennis Erickson was still here. Expectations have risen and a bowl game is important here. A year with 4 or less wins and Riley may be out. 60% chance of Riley coming back as long as he doesn’t let Oregon come in to Reser and do what they did to the Beavs in Autzen last year he should be okay.
9. Karl Dorrell –UCLA – Saved his job by having a pretty nice season last year and Dorrell has recruited well (of-course anyone should recruit well at UCLA). The Bruins need to go out and finish top 4 in the conference this year and at least be competitive against USC to be in LA after this season. 55% percent chance of Dorrell returning, anything less than 8 wins and the heat will b on hard.
10. Mike Stoops – Arizona – Stoops has a team now filled up with his guys and it is time for him to win. Arizona was more competitive last year but also lost to Washington at home. I really think Stoops needs to get these guys to a bowl game to remain coach after this season. It has been a long drought in Tucson and I think some of Stoops antics are starting to wear thin. 50% chance of returning a bowl game is needed for Stoops to survive another year


With all 10 Pac 10 coaches returning from last year it is highly likely that 2007 will see some change in the ranks and much of that will be decided on whether the guys at the bottom of the list are able to exceed expectations or if the guys at the top exceed them and decide to move on to something they see as better.

Pac 10 Tournament Predictions and ranking of Coaches on the Hot Seat

On Wednesday play I feel Oregon and Arizona State will win based on talent alone. Dick Bennett’s boys will play tough and then lose out to the talented but lack-luster Ducks while ASU will give Rob Evans one more win before he is set out to pasture.

Thursday UCLA rolls ASU and UW puts a tired Oregon squad away after the Ducks give a game effort for 35 minutes. USC will beat Cal causing more questions about whether Cal should really be in the NCAA tournament however with 12 wins in the Pac 10 they really can’t be left to the NIT. Arizona ensures their bid with a win over a beat down Stanford team.

Friday’s UCLA Arizona game looks like it could be a classic but UCLA striving to wins it’s first Pac 10 tournament since it was brought back beats Arizona probably knocking the Cats down to a seed in the 10 range which might actually be better than the 8/9 they were looking to fall in to. By beating Stanford Arizona made up for the Washington loss last Saturday. I think USC will have more to play for than Washington and with Gabe Pruitt back and the home crowd sneak past a streaking Washington squad.

Saturday’s finals have bubble teams across the country freaking out but UCLA just has too much down the stretch for USC and a sigh of relief is breathed across the country as USC will have to settle for a NIT berth despite having 19 wins the 8-10 league record in a down year for the conference doesn’t warrant an NCAA bid despite a OOC win versus North Carolina.

I predict that UCLA, UW, Cal and Arizona all receive bids to the NCAA tournament. USC and Stanford will be offered bids to the NIT but Stanford will end of declining the bid due to “academic priorities”

We have already seen one change in Head Coaches in the Pac 10 this year and that was the switch from Dick Bennett to Tony Bennett, though this should have come as no surprise to anyone. Here is a hot seat level for the coaches in the Pac 10 right now from coldest seat to hottest seat:

1. Lorenzo Romar – Has worked wonders at UW, the team is hot and they have become a power in recruiting. By keeping more in state players from leaving the Seattle area Romar can easily field a top 20 program. With Adam Morrison likely leaving after thus year for Gonzaga UW will take over the title as the Northwest’s best program.
2. Tim Floyd – I don’t think anyone could have predicted a 17 win regular season at USC. With a new arena next year and some top flight recruits coming in the future looks good for Floyd, though he will now face the issue of raised expectations.
3. Lute Olson – Lute is an institution in Tucson but this season had to have worn on him. I don’t sense too many whispers yet on whether it is getting time to hang them up but another down year in 2006-2007 and expect some pressure to mount on Olson.
4. Ben Howland – Howland has done a nice job rebuilding UCLA. However anything less than a Sweet 16 this year and fans will not consider the year successful. That is the burden a UCLA coach has to live with.
5. Tony Bennett – Dick Bennett brought hope to Pullman and just by doing that you have to consider his tenure a success. Tony will get at least three years to try and grow on that success and next year they have a legit shot to finish in the Top 6 of the Pac 10 with a strong returning nucleus.
6. Ben Braun – Has been good but not great at his years in Berkeley. This year was most likely his best shot at winning a Pac 10 title and they came up short. The Bears can look back at blowing home games to ASU and Oregon State as why that occurred.
7. Jay John – This season OSU had a good deal of hope for a NIT type year based on a strong senior class returning. It just didn’t pan out for the Beavers who were really hurt by injuries. They are losing some key pieces and I don’t see a lot of chances for them to finish in the upper division next season. John was signed to an extension earlier in the year so he does have a lot of rope.
8. Trent Johnson – 2006/2007 has to go down as the worst year in Stanford basketball probably since early in the Montgomery era and Stanford loses three key seniors this year in Chris Hernandez, Matt Haryasz and Dan Grunfield. Johnson needs to raise the level of athleticism down on the Farm. A Josh Childress type athlete would have meant the world to Stanford. Johnson needs to win the games they are supposed to win and that just didn’t happen this season for whatever reason. If he doesn’t come back with a NCAA appearance next year I think that the rich alums down in the Bay Area may be calling for his head on a platter.
9. Ernie Kent – Ernie has the support of the AD and very little else. However I don’t think Bill Moos will let Ernie go this season but unless Oregon goes back to the NCAA’s next year Kent is gone, the pressure on Moos will be too high not to make a move.
10. Rob Evans – Good guy who just hasn’t won enough at ASU to continue on as coach. The new AD will likely want her own guy in their so she did surprise some by signing Dirk Koetter to an extension in football after a disappoint run as well.

All in all I expect that only Evans will not return for next year. Should be a fun week of the Pac 10 tournament and then the joy of Selection Sunday and March Madness will be upon us.