Pac 10 Coaches in 2006 - - - who’s seat is the hottest?

Before I come out with my conference predictions for 2006 I thought I’d come back from a long hiatus from Pac 10 sports and this blog to run down the coaches on the hot seat for this season. In terms of job safety here is how the list goes.

1. Jeff Tedford Cal – Tedford has a long term contract, a likely stadium upgrade, the overwhelming support of the fans and administration and seems to love Berkeley. He has built up a program from severe depths and has turned Cal in to a perennial Top 20 program, something no many folks would have believed in the Tom Holmoe era. Only way he isn’t in Berkeley next year is if an NFL team makes a blockbuster deal for him and I don’t see many openings there next year due to the huge turnover from last year. Odds of returning next year 99%
2. Mike Bellotti Oregon – Coach B was feeling the heat after the 2004 season and rebounded nicely in 2005 with 10 wins and a great start to the recruiting season in 2006. The future looks good for the dean of Pac 10 coaches though the Ducks face a very difficult slate in 2006. Bellotti has earned the right to retire as a Duck and I expect to see him spend another decade or so in Eugene. I could see Bellotti leaving only if the UO won the national championship next season. Odds of returning next year 98%
3. Pete Carroll – USC - The reason I don’t have Pete Carroll at the top of the list is that there are some possible skeletons with the regards to how the NCAA will look at the program with Reggie Bush house, Dwayne Jarrett rent scheme, the Ting brothers and steroids etcetera. Unless rampant scandal breaks and the NCAA drops a serious hammer I don’t see Carroll being forced out any time soon. Carroll will only leave if A he wants to take a NFL job or B he is shown to have been behind some very shady player recruitment and benefit enhancements and is forced out by the hammer of the NCAA coming down on Troy wicked hard. I don’t see either of those happening so 95% chance he comes back next year.
4. Walt Harris – Stanford – Stanford should struggle this year after losing a lot of senior talent from last year. The administration and fans will give him some time to try and win. With a new stadium however Harris will need to have some wins in 2007 to maintain his position here. 90% chance he returns unless he is offered a very high paying gig as an NFL OC ala Al Saunders
5. Dirk Koetter – Arizona State – I have him this high mainly because the new AD upped him for 5 more years. Without a new contract extension Koetter might have been the coach most on the hot seat. Another disappointing campaign will put pressure on him but the new AD Lisa Love has placed her faith in Koetter and she will stick with him for at least 3 more years before I could see him getting sacked. 89% chance of returning next year.
6. Bill Doba – Washington State – Doba is an older coach and a Mike Price disciple. This is a big year for the Cougs they lost a lot of close games ala 1996 and we all know what happened in 1997. If Doba does something like go out and finish 3-9 and lose to Washington then they could make a move in a new direction. I see them Cougs finishing around .500 which should maintain the status quo for next season. I’d give Doba a 80% chance of being the WSU coach in 2007.
7. Ty Willingham – Washington – Not much has gone well for Willingham since he left Stanford. This program can only go up but if the program regresses even more the could get a pink slip. I believe that Washington won’t make a move unless in state recruits complete revolt after next year. Given time I think Willingham can make UW competitive but they won’t be returning to the days of Don James any time soon. 75% chance of Willingham returning . . . now if they go 0-12 . . .
8. Mike Riley –Oregon State – Basically Beaver fans wish that Dennis Erickson was still here. Expectations have risen and a bowl game is important here. A year with 4 or less wins and Riley may be out. 60% chance of Riley coming back as long as he doesn’t let Oregon come in to Reser and do what they did to the Beavs in Autzen last year he should be okay.
9. Karl Dorrell –UCLA – Saved his job by having a pretty nice season last year and Dorrell has recruited well (of-course anyone should recruit well at UCLA). The Bruins need to go out and finish top 4 in the conference this year and at least be competitive against USC to be in LA after this season. 55% percent chance of Dorrell returning, anything less than 8 wins and the heat will b on hard.
10. Mike Stoops – Arizona – Stoops has a team now filled up with his guys and it is time for him to win. Arizona was more competitive last year but also lost to Washington at home. I really think Stoops needs to get these guys to a bowl game to remain coach after this season. It has been a long drought in Tucson and I think some of Stoops antics are starting to wear thin. 50% chance of returning a bowl game is needed for Stoops to survive another year


With all 10 Pac 10 coaches returning from last year it is highly likely that 2007 will see some change in the ranks and much of that will be decided on whether the guys at the bottom of the list are able to exceed expectations or if the guys at the top exceed them and decide to move on to something they see as better.