Pac 10 Tournament Predictions and ranking of Coaches on the Hot Seat

On Wednesday play I feel Oregon and Arizona State will win based on talent alone. Dick Bennett’s boys will play tough and then lose out to the talented but lack-luster Ducks while ASU will give Rob Evans one more win before he is set out to pasture.

Thursday UCLA rolls ASU and UW puts a tired Oregon squad away after the Ducks give a game effort for 35 minutes. USC will beat Cal causing more questions about whether Cal should really be in the NCAA tournament however with 12 wins in the Pac 10 they really can’t be left to the NIT. Arizona ensures their bid with a win over a beat down Stanford team.

Friday’s UCLA Arizona game looks like it could be a classic but UCLA striving to wins it’s first Pac 10 tournament since it was brought back beats Arizona probably knocking the Cats down to a seed in the 10 range which might actually be better than the 8/9 they were looking to fall in to. By beating Stanford Arizona made up for the Washington loss last Saturday. I think USC will have more to play for than Washington and with Gabe Pruitt back and the home crowd sneak past a streaking Washington squad.

Saturday’s finals have bubble teams across the country freaking out but UCLA just has too much down the stretch for USC and a sigh of relief is breathed across the country as USC will have to settle for a NIT berth despite having 19 wins the 8-10 league record in a down year for the conference doesn’t warrant an NCAA bid despite a OOC win versus North Carolina.

I predict that UCLA, UW, Cal and Arizona all receive bids to the NCAA tournament. USC and Stanford will be offered bids to the NIT but Stanford will end of declining the bid due to “academic priorities”

We have already seen one change in Head Coaches in the Pac 10 this year and that was the switch from Dick Bennett to Tony Bennett, though this should have come as no surprise to anyone. Here is a hot seat level for the coaches in the Pac 10 right now from coldest seat to hottest seat:

1. Lorenzo Romar – Has worked wonders at UW, the team is hot and they have become a power in recruiting. By keeping more in state players from leaving the Seattle area Romar can easily field a top 20 program. With Adam Morrison likely leaving after thus year for Gonzaga UW will take over the title as the Northwest’s best program.
2. Tim Floyd – I don’t think anyone could have predicted a 17 win regular season at USC. With a new arena next year and some top flight recruits coming in the future looks good for Floyd, though he will now face the issue of raised expectations.
3. Lute Olson – Lute is an institution in Tucson but this season had to have worn on him. I don’t sense too many whispers yet on whether it is getting time to hang them up but another down year in 2006-2007 and expect some pressure to mount on Olson.
4. Ben Howland – Howland has done a nice job rebuilding UCLA. However anything less than a Sweet 16 this year and fans will not consider the year successful. That is the burden a UCLA coach has to live with.
5. Tony Bennett – Dick Bennett brought hope to Pullman and just by doing that you have to consider his tenure a success. Tony will get at least three years to try and grow on that success and next year they have a legit shot to finish in the Top 6 of the Pac 10 with a strong returning nucleus.
6. Ben Braun – Has been good but not great at his years in Berkeley. This year was most likely his best shot at winning a Pac 10 title and they came up short. The Bears can look back at blowing home games to ASU and Oregon State as why that occurred.
7. Jay John – This season OSU had a good deal of hope for a NIT type year based on a strong senior class returning. It just didn’t pan out for the Beavers who were really hurt by injuries. They are losing some key pieces and I don’t see a lot of chances for them to finish in the upper division next season. John was signed to an extension earlier in the year so he does have a lot of rope.
8. Trent Johnson – 2006/2007 has to go down as the worst year in Stanford basketball probably since early in the Montgomery era and Stanford loses three key seniors this year in Chris Hernandez, Matt Haryasz and Dan Grunfield. Johnson needs to raise the level of athleticism down on the Farm. A Josh Childress type athlete would have meant the world to Stanford. Johnson needs to win the games they are supposed to win and that just didn’t happen this season for whatever reason. If he doesn’t come back with a NCAA appearance next year I think that the rich alums down in the Bay Area may be calling for his head on a platter.
9. Ernie Kent – Ernie has the support of the AD and very little else. However I don’t think Bill Moos will let Ernie go this season but unless Oregon goes back to the NCAA’s next year Kent is gone, the pressure on Moos will be too high not to make a move.
10. Rob Evans – Good guy who just hasn’t won enough at ASU to continue on as coach. The new AD will likely want her own guy in their so she did surprise some by signing Dirk Koetter to an extension in football after a disappoint run as well.

All in all I expect that only Evans will not return for next year. Should be a fun week of the Pac 10 tournament and then the joy of Selection Sunday and March Madness will be upon us.