Pre-season Power Poll

Pac 10 Team Capsules and Power Poll - The first year of round robin conference play should be interesting and it will likely mean the end of any Pac 10 school getting in to the BCS championship game with one loss (which by the way has never happened anyhow though Oregon, UW and USC have come close only to be denied by computers). Not only is the Pac 10 hurt by having only 10 teams meaning fewer OOC games which tend to be won by major conferences who schedule down (please see the SEC and Big 12 for examples) but the addition of the 9^th conference game will also mean 5 more losses for the league while the other major conferences are feeding up on extra games with 1-AA schools, the Sun Belt and MAC. The Pac 10 champ will have truly earned their championship on the field.

Team Capsules for 2006

Arizona Wildcats (3 wins 4 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Stoops has cleansed himself of the Mackovic era and at least on paper has recruited well in particular on the defensive side of the ball. The team plays with a lot of toughness in what is considered often by the national media to be a “soft” or “finesse” league, whether that assumption is fair or not. What I don’t like: Mike Stoops’ sideline antics, we get it, he is hard nosed but it gets to the point of being embarrassing, how long will it be until the players tune him out? Bottom line: Willy Tuitama gained some experience late last year and that will help him this season but true sophomore QB’s rarely lead their schools to successful Pac 10 seasons. Arizona could have enough to make it to a bowl game if they can recover from their early season whipping in Baton Rouge, a step back to 4-8 or worse and they just may decide to go another direction coaching wise. Key game: October 21^st in Tucson versus Oregon State. A win here and Arizona could be bowl eligible for the first time since 1999.

Arizona State Sun Devils (7 wins 0 losses 5 tossups) What I like: Great offensive system which really seemed to gel around Rudy Carpenter after Sam Keller went down though both QB’s were among the top rated in the nation. What I don’t like: Dirk Koetter has not handled the Keller/Carpenter quarterback controversy well, ASU can’t afford an injury to Carpenter or the season could go down in flames. He may be the single most important player to his team in the entire conference with Sam Keller off to Nebraska. Bottom line: ASU in the last 30 years has typically lacked the heart and character to take the step up to consistently compete for Pac 10 titles (exception Jake Plummer) and has managed to underachieve despite all the built in advantages they have due to location (nice weather & facilities, beautiful coeds, major metropolitan area, proximity to Texas and California for recruiting). I expect another decent but in the end unfulfilling season for Koetter but with his contract being extended by his new AD he is safe job security wise. Key game: September 30^th in Tempe versus Oregon. Oregon could be a Top 10 team at this point if they can beat Fresno State and Oklahoma and Arizona State faces a likely loss to Cal the week before, whoever loses this game could be knocked out of the Rose Bowl race unless they can win road games at USC or Cal.

Cal Bears (7 wins 0 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Great running game and depth with Marshuan Lynch and Justin Forsett. The enthusiasm that Jeff Tedford has brought to what had been a morbid program since Bruce Snyder had left. They seem to be the only program in the Pac 10 that has been able to consistently stay in games with USC during the Pete Carroll era. What I don’t like Not much other than questions at quarterback, had Aaron Rodgers stayed for his senior season Cal may have been playing Texas instead of USC in the Rose Bowl last year. Tim Mixon may have been the Pac 10’s top returning cornerback and was a special teams stalwart, losing him to an ACL tear for the season is a blow. Bottom line: The Bears are the most likely school to beat USC in LA and if that occurs, the Pac 10 title could be Cal’s for the first time since the 1950’s. Key game: November 18^th in Los Angeles versus USC. This game could be for the Pac 10 title and could pin USC with their first Pac 10 home loss since 2001. Probably fair to say that at least on paper this could be the most significant game played by the California Bears in the modern era if both schools are still at the top of the Pac 10 standings in mid-November.

Oregon Ducks ( 4 Wins, 1 loss, 7 tossups) What I like: A second year in the spread should see Oregon’s offense excel to new heights. There seems to have been an injection of enthusiasm and excitement in Mike Bellotti’s decision to bring in Gary Crowton after Andy Ludwig left for Utah. What I don’t like: Having to replace Haloti Ngata, Anthony Trucks and the starting CB’s from the Pac 10’s top rated defense (quite a rarity in Eugene for that to happen) Bottom line: Oregon arguably has the nation’s toughest schedule and a stumble at Fresno State could start a tailspin that leads to a disappointing around .500 year for Oregon. They may well be a better team than last years 10-2 squad ( Oregon’s best win in 2005 was over California) but the record may not show it. Oregon is primed for a national championship run in 2007 and a nice 9 or 10 win season in 2006 should propel them high enough in the initial 2007 polls for that to become a possibility on paper. Key game: September 16^th in Eugene versus Oklahoma. Oregon needs to show the nation that they can handle a tough, physical nationally recognized power. A win here sets up Oregon nicely for the Pac 10 season as well as keeps them on the national radar for 2007 when they should have their best chance at a national run since Joey Harrington and company’s 2^nd place national finish in 2001 after a Fiesta Bowl victory over Colorado.

Oregon State Beavers ( 3 wins 1 loss 9 tossups) What I like: The Beavers return their entire offensive line and have a senior quarterback, All-American candidate Tight-end in Joe Newton, along with a kind home schedule in conference play. What I don’t like: Inexperience at wide-out and the lack of future NFL quality players on the roster. Player discipline has been an issue for the last few seasons Bottom line: The Beavers get Oregon, Cal and USC all at home in what has become one of the tougher places to play on the west coast. While the Beavers will not likely compete for a Pac 10 title they will play a great role in deciding who does. I don’t think the Beavers have a 2000 type run in them because I think they lack the athletes at DE and WR that the 2000 squad had. They could certainly end up with a nice 8-9 win season, which in Corvallis, is quite the accomplishment and should take the heat off of Riley who has faced a great deal of player conduct issues in the past few seasons. When it comes down to it this may be the hardest team of 2006 to predict how they will finish. Oregon State could finish anywhere between 3^rd and 8^th in the conference and it would not surprise me. Key game: Friday November 24^th in Corvallis versus Oregon. If Oregon State has a losing record going in to the Civil War he will be facing some major heat from the fan base and media for not living up to glory that the 2000 season brought to Oregon State fans under Dennis Erickson. That great season and a new stadium upgrade have led to higher expectations in Corvallis. Oregon State has not lost a home game to Oregon since 1996 and a loss here could really tighten the noose around Riley’s neck.

Stanford Cardinal (1 win 6 loses 5 tossups) What I like: The Trees have a sparkling new stadium which should help transform Palo Alto Saturdays in to a rollicking environment albeit with a wine and cheese crowd with the elimination of the track and 40,000 fewer seats. Stanford could easily go from having the worst football game day environment in the conference to one of the best in just one season due the stadium transformation. In addition Stanford played very tough on the road last year losing only at USC. What I don’t like: Stanford was pretty bi-polar last year, playing tough games with USC and Notre Dame and beating Arizona State but doing the unthinkable and losing to Cal State Davis which ultimately cost them the chance to play in a bowl game. The loss of standout LB Michael Okwo in fall training camp will cause Stanford to play this year without its best returning defender on what was already a very green unit. Bottom line: A step backward may led to two steps forward, too much was lost on the defensive side of the ball from 2005 to have much of a shot for a winning campaign so Harris will have to play a lot young players. The new stadium should certainly help in giving Stanford a home field advantage for the first ever. Key game: Saturday September 23^rd in Palo Alto versus Washington State. In a very winnable home game Stanford will first showcase its new stadium in a conference game. A winning season is unlikely but a opening home win will be a nice showcase for Walt Harris as he tries to build his program down on The Farm.

UCLA Bruins (6 wins 3 loses 3 tossups) What I like: Karl Dorrell had a very nice season in 2005 and made some in-roads in bridging some of the game between UCLA and USC in recruiting (not by bringing USC down but by bringing UCLA up the rankings) What I don’t like: Not many QB’s have been very successful after being away from the game for a mission like Ben Olson took no matter how much natural talent they have, too much talent was lost on defense and losing Maurice Jones-Drew to the NFL was an unexpected shock that stings UCLA. Bottom line: UCLA will regress back to the 7-8 win plateau that has been the norm most of the last decade, they have some excellent athletes all over the field but will likely not win as many close games with the departure of last year’s senior QB Drew Olson being Captain Comeback in leading UCLA to a handful of comeback wins. Key game: October 21^st in South Bend versus Notre Dame. UCLA has been off the national radar since 1998 and having becoming an absolute second banana in Los Angeles to the Trojans has put UCLA in the odd position of being a relatively unknown program in a huge media market that has increasingly become looked at nationally as irrelevant. What better way to regain national traction by knocking off a highly ranked (and defensively shaky) Notre Dame team with a senior QB on a Heisman run.

USC Trojans (8 wins 0 losses 4 tossups) What I like: The improvement that will be seen on USC’s defense and the continued stellar recruiting classes of Pete Carroll should keep them in contention for the national and league title for the foreseeable future. Getting to face their likely two toughest Pac 10 tests at Memorial Coliseum in Oregon and Cal. What I don’t like: It is almost impossible to sustain the hits they have taking in losing players to the NFL draft and injuries over the last few years. Depending on true freshman tailbacks to replace Reggie Bush and Lendale White will likely lead to a less balanced offense. Bottom line: Carroll has recruited amazingly well but all schools are pulled back to earth and I expect USC to drop at least one league game in 2006. Key game: December 3rd versus Notre a rematch of last year's classic could be a matchup of #1 versus #2 if everything falls in place

Washington Huskies (1 win 7 losses 4 tossups) What I like: Ty Willingham is a class act and I heard he is good at karaoke! Tailgating on those boats sure is fine and the view of the water and Mt Rainer sure are pretty. The Huskies have recruited fairly well in state the last few years What I don’t like: A lot to not like especially on offense with injuries, losses to graduation and low-talent level QB’s likely leading to Washington being in the position to have their defense needing to step up big for them to have any chance of success in a offensive favored conference. Washington was really once one of the nation’s best programs and their stadium inspired fear. Now Husky Stadium is a shell of itself and people realize that the while the view of the surrounding area sure is nice the view of the field is horrible because of the track. They Huskies had to hire a by-the-books guy like Willingham after all the shenanigans of the Rick Neuheisel era but whether the Tyee club has patience for his rebuilding program will be another story. If Washington can eek out 6 wins then Ty Willingham deserves Pac 10 coach of the year. Losing James Hasty to academics will prove painful. Key game: November 18^th in Pullman versus Washington State. In what will likely be a painful season in Seattle the Huskies could put a severe hurt to Bill Doba’s job security and make a statement that they are again the state’s best program to recruits with a win in the Apple Cup. Interestingly enough this is the only rivalry game that will be played on the traditional Rivalry Week Saturday in the conference. All 4 other in-state rivalry games have been moved back to later in the season with the addition of the 12^th game.

Washington State Cougars (2 wins 4 losses 6 tossups) What I like: There are some eerie similarities between the 1996 and 2005 WSU seasons. When everyone has counted out WSU they tend to have a great season as happened in 1997 and 2001. Lots of close loses, young talent & low expectations could get the Cougars in to the top half of the conference if they can win all the games they should win and steal a few they shouldn’t. Jason Hill may end up an All-American at WR if Ben Brink can get him the ball enough. What I don’t like: Bill Doba’s teams have had trouble winning close games, the question is whether they are almost there as a team primed for a breakout season or whether they were over-achieving to make those games close. A big question is whether the new running backs from the JUCO level can step in and replace Jerome Harrison who really helped WSU in having a balanced offensive attack last season Bottom line: In a best case scenario WSU can go out and win 8 games which is really what they should have won last year if they could have closed out games, the only game they really didn’t have a good chance of winning in 2005 was their game versus USC. The Cougars should beat a couple of good teams at home this year and have an excellent shot at going to a minor bowl if they can cut down on mistakes on offense. Key game: October 21^st versus Oregon. The Cougars can’t continue to fumble away winnable games to the Ducks if they hope to go back to the form they showed in 2001 to 2003. Oregon could either be flying or reeling at this point at the Cougars need to pounce on the Ducks and not let another close loss occur on the Palouse to the Ducks.

Pre-season Pac 10 Power Poll

1. USC – Until someone can beat them in conference I really can’t take them off the top of this list. It took the huge stones of Vince Young, arrogant and cockiness on field play by USC players and some questionable coaching by Pete Carroll to keep USC from being a Three-peat national champion.
2. California – The most likely team to knock USC out of its perch atop the Pac 10. If they can take car of business in Tennessee they well could be primed for a national run and will have the out of conference resume to prove it. The big question is whether they have the QB play to win close conference games down the stretch.
3. Arizona State – It was hard for me to decide between Oregon and Arizona State. As of right now I think they have fewer question marks than the Ducks do but the team is a Rudy Carpenter injury away from disaster.
4. Oregon – The Ducks have a brutal schedule. Though they may end up being a more complete team than the 2005 version it will be tough to match the record. They are one year away from the possibility of putting together a 2001 like run to the Pac 10 title together.
5. UCLA Bruins – If Ben Olson shakes off the rust and UCLA can find a playmaker at running back to step in for Maurice Drew they should be able to get back to a bowl game. The defense is green and last year wasn’t really that great anyhow. UCLA gutted out a lot of close wins last year and maybe lady luck will be against them in 2006.
6. Oregon State – I have to place OSU in the middle of the pack. They could finish anywhere between 3^rd and 8^th in this league, I like the running game and senior leadership but I question the overall talent level.
7. WSU – They have the playmakers at WR to have a huge year offensively but Ben Brink needs to cut his mistakes down for the Cougars to win the close games they lost last year.
8. Arizona – This is the year the Mike Stoops needs to put it all together. They are a chic pick around the country to have a breakout year, I don’t see it.
9. Stanford – Having a senior QB is a traditionally a harbinger for winning in this conference and only Oregon State, Washington and Stanford will be starting them as the season starts. However, I just see too many holes on this team defensively for them to have a winning season and I doubt they will be able to steal 3 road wins again like they did in 2005.
10. Washington – I don’t see a lot of upside here for Washington. They could win as few as one game this year but more likely I see a 3 or 4 win season if they can play tough at home. The loss of James Hasty to academics was quite a blow for a school that hasn’t had a 1000 yard rusher since 1997.