Pac 10 Power Poll Week Four

Well there were a few bright spots this week, one being the dominant performance by the USC Trojans who look like they might not get challenged this year, another was Oregon State getting a win for the first time this year and then finally Oregon has to be happy to snag victory from the arms of defeat at Purdue. On the other hand last Friday and Saturday, it can be argued, was perhaps the worst day of play by the Pac 10 as a whole in the history of the league. Washington State, UCLA and Washington were obliterated while Stanford, Cal, Arizona and ASU all lost games they should, on paper at least, have won. What the breakdown of all this means is that the Pac 10’s OOC record is really not looking good and that will hurt all teams outside of USC in the quest to get a second team to the BCS. I could easily see a scenario where Oregon goes 11-1 but gets kicked in the teeth by the Trojans and ends up at around 8th in the country but gets stuck in the Holiday Bowl. Pac 10 fans need to cheer against Utah, BYU, East Carolina and Notre Dame this year. At this point if you take USC out of the equation there is no doubt in my mind that if you compared the 9 Mountain West schools to the 2nd through 9th Pac 10 teams that overall the Mountain West is better. That is not a good sign for the 9 dwarves of the Pac 10 at all. As for this week we have a light schedule that is looking lackluster now after ASU lost to Mountain West doormat UNLV. ESPN Gameday is now not coming to Tempe and the Devils are not ranked in the Top 25 as the Bulldogs come to town. ASU has the chance to get their season back on track and highly ranked non-conference teams do have a history of losing night games in Tempe. Stanford simply needs to get things done and not blow another game to San Jose State, while the Cougs have their best chance for a win this year when Jerry Glanville brings his pigskin footbrawlers to Pullman. The remaining games are a non-conference tilt at Autzen between Oregon and Boise State where all eyes will be on the Ducks quarterback play and the Mildcats roll in to Pasadena to take on a UCLA team that thought they were playing BYE but was actually playing BYU.
1. USC (1) – Simple physically beat down and outclassed Ohio State. The Trojans will not overlook Oregon State like they did the last time they played in Corvallis. The game is on September 25th so the Trojans will be watching TV this weekend.
2. UO (3) – The Ducks didn’t bring their A game against Purdue and it showed but the team gutted out a win in less than ideal situations and got key special teams performances from Jairus Byrd and Matt Evensen. Boise State should bring an interesting matchup, I predict that BSU will try to sell out early to the run so the Ducks should try to go downfield early with Masoil. Roper may indeed be back for the USC game now. The Ducks should be 5-0 rolling in to that game since they face a scrimmage next week in Pullman.
3. Cal (2) – I will give Cal a pass for their performance in College Park last weekend. First of all why agree to a 9 AM Pacific start time, second of all why do you not fly in until 7PM local time the night before? Cal can now spend 2 weeks preparing for the Mighty Colorado State Rams.
4. ASU (4) – Classic trap game loss by the Devils. Now instead of hosting ESPN Gameday the Devils see themselves outside the Top 25 and will host the #3 team in the country in a game that could get ugly if the Devils can’t protect Rudy.
5. OSU (9) – Well they got their win but now face two likely losses after a bye this week. I’d rank this team lower but they were the only team below Oregon and USC who actually won this week so there is nowhere else to go.
6. UA (6) – Not terribly surprised the Cats lost to New Mexico but now they need to regroup and win a road game in LA. The Cats should be a better team than UCLA but it could depend on which UCLA team shows up. Stoops loses here and making a bowl game gets that much tougher.
7. LSJU (7)- Hurricane Ike kind of throw them for a bit of a loop with the early start date, probably not a game that the Trees were going to win regardless but one they could have won with a better effort. They can’t afford to choke to San Jose State yet again.
8. UW (9)- Worst loss in the history of Husky Stadium, I think that sums it up. Willingham seems to have survived to the bye week and because of that I think he lasts the year and resigns after the Apple Cup.
9. UCLA (5) – Nice use of that bye week UCLA. Did you guys think that the season was only one week long? Better be ready for Arizona this week.
10. WSU (10) – The last best chance for a win is this week versus Portland State. Now glory days in Pullman, how many fans make the drive from the Westside for this one?

Power Poll Week Three

The second week of the season is a traditionally bland week across the country with many matchups between BCS programs and non-BCS/I-AA programs. This was no different in the Pac 10 aside from Oregon State’s ill-fated trip to Happy Valley which was anything but happy. The Beavers clearly are going to have a horrible season unless they get drastically better play on both sides of the line, they better beat Hawaii because they are going to have major trouble not being 1-4 . Washington showed they have some heart but were torpedoed by a correct interpretation of a terrible rule. The Huskies deserved overtime but there lack of blocking on the 35 yard PAT attempt was as bad as the call that led to the 15 yard penalty on Locker. Oregon, ASU, Zona and Cal put up incredible offensive numbers while WSU looks like they have a great shot at not winning a game in league play. The LA schools were off but this week both face harsh tests in Ohio State and BYU. This week is packed with great games so I am glad to not be at Autzen for a week and to be home in front of the TV.
1. USC (1) – Nice to have a bye week before Ohio State. Pete Carroll doesn’t lose non-conference games, particularly at home. I see USC winning but I might think about taking the points with OSU if I was a betting man.
2. Cal (4) – Unlike UO and ASU the Bears blew out a patsy on the road rather than at home. This team is getting slept on by the media but faces a long road trip out east to play at 9 AM Pacific to an angry and embarrassed Maryland team who lost a Sun Belt team. Cal should roll but the game will be closer than the talent difference because of the time and distance factor.
3. UO (3) – The Ducks played great setting a record for most offensive yards in a game. This record wouldn’t have likely been broken if the Ducks had forced any turnovers. This led to longer drives and more yards. Expect to see a very slow turf at Purdue to try and slow down Oregon. Purdue will get some points but I think the Ducks will wear them down in the end. Blount actually maybe more effective on grass than turf so I’d expect to see a two-headed attack with him and Johnson in the same backfield from time to time.
4. ASU (2) – ASU played fine against Stanford, I dropped them because I think at this point Oregon and Cal are better teams. UNLV should present no problem at all to the Devils.
5. UCLA (5) – The state of Utah has not been kind to UCLA and I expect the Cougars to pull out the win against the rested Bruins. UCLA got mauled last year by the Utes but have played the Cougars many times over the last few seasons so no one should be surprised at what each team throws at the other even with the additions of Chow and Neuheisal.
6. Arizona (6) – Rolled up on Toledo but now face a dicey game against rival New Mexico in Albuquerque. This is a game that always means more to UNM than to UA and Rocky Long’s boys won last year in Tucson. Dangerous game for UA.
7. LSJU (8) – They played tough for the first half but faded to the more talented ASU team. Stanford I think is one year away from a bowl game, the schedule is too tough this year with only 5 home dates. The face a fairly tough TCU team coming off a disappointing 2007 campaign. The Trees if they want to have a chance at a bowl game can’t afford to lose games like this one.
8. UW (10) – The Dawgs played their hearts out but in the end lost, in part to a stupid rule. Unfortunately Oklahoma comes in this week to Montlake. With a bye week coming up next week expect to see Willingham resign or be fired this Saturday night.
9. OSU (7) – There is no doubt that the Beavs have some very talented skill position players but they need to shore up the line play and they need to do it ASAP. Hawaii they should be able to outmuscle for once but USC is in the wings on Thursday the 25th. They need to put Penn State game behind them.
10. WSU (10) – Baylor likely presents the last best chance for a win versus a 1-A opponent for the Cougars, though you never know what can happen in an Apple Cup. Getting routed the way they did versus Cal at home is beyond painful.

Pac 10 Power Poll Week Two

Dominant offensive performances were seen all around the conference this week but the big story has to be the triumphant return of Rick Neuheisal and Norm Chow to Los Angeles and the win they were able to pull out of a hat versus Tennessee on national TV this Labor Day. I didn’t watch much of the first half and really didn’t miss anything other than a terrible offensive performance by both team but especially UCLA’s QB Kevin Craft. Chow and Neuheisal deserve credit for staying with the kid after 4 first half picks. Somehow, due to a combination of better accuracy and Tennesse dropping back in a deep zone against a weak armed QB UCLA was able to throw drives together while on defense get some big league run stuffing from their very solid up the middle defense. UCLA always seems to play OOC teams tough and this game was just another example of that. The Bruins will likely still face major struggles this year they should end of making a bowl which before the Tennessee game was not a likelihood in my book. In other news USC is good, really good and have the fortune of playing Oregon, Ohio State, ASU and Cal all in the Coliseum. Does anyone see a loss on that schedule except possible against U of A on 10/25? Give Stanford credit for maximizing their talent and taking advantage of some dumb mistakes by Oregon State but clearly the less talented team won last Thursday. This was a bad loss for the Beavers, who pending a miracle are looking at a 1-3 start. I am not sure really what to take out of the Oregon/Washington game other than that Washington is really bad, Oregon should be able to start out 5-0 and win at least 8 games but the second half of the schedule is dicey. As for Washington I’ve heard rumors that the guy they have in their cross-hairs for taking over for the dead man walking Willingham regime is Chip Kelly. Kelly going to UW would be beyond a coup – it removes your rivals second most important asset (after Uncle Phil) while at the same time brings in a dynamic offensive mind who would likely work wonders year one with Jake Locker. Oregon cannot let this happen but it is going to be very hard for them to keep Chip Kelly from taking a head coaching job. If Oregon were to lose him it would better to lose him to a non-Pac 10 school. Outside of WSU the rest of the conference played fairly well other than Nate Longshore who I think we can officially put the fork in to. From Heisman candidate on the #2 in the country to not starting in less than a year, Cal wins by 21 if he doesn’t play.
1. USC (1) – Looked truly dominant, they could be back to the form of the 2004 team. Sanchez showed no rust and looked much better than last year and the Trojans get an extra week for Ohio State who will have a banged up Beanie Wells. I’d eat my hat if this team doesn’t play for the BCS championship even with 1 loss.
2. ASU (2) – I’d move them down but I had them 2 last week and from what I read pulled almost everyone for the second half of the NAU game and treated it like a scrimmage. Stanford will provide them a nice chance to get in a game versus a quality opponent before Georgia comes to town but at the same time this game has “trap game” written all over it. Interesting that Stanford will have played two Pac 10 games already while most of the league has played zero.
3. UO (3) – Who needs Dennis Dixon? Just kidding but clearly QB is not as big as a worry for Oregon as I had thought. I think by mid-season Jeremiah Masoli will be playing the majority of snaps as he better fits the scheme. Utah State will be treated as a scrimmage by the Ducks, I’d expect Roper won’t play in the second half nor will Jeremiah Johnson.
4. Cal (4) – They beat a similar team to themselves in a rapidly improving Michigan State. Game would have been closer if Longshore hadn’t played. I still think this team has the second best talent in the league but they need play some better defense it appears. No Pac-10 road game is easy but I look for a comfortable win in Pullman this weekend.
5. UCLA (9) – The Tennessee win was kind of a perfect storm scenario and they Bruins shouldn’t be expecting to get that kind of performance every week against Top 20 teams, at the same time the Bruins do have the potential to go bowling this year and I didn’t think that last week.
6. UA (6) – Idaho stinks but beating anyone 70-0 is impressive. They should have no issues versus Toledo this week.
7. OSU (5) – Yeah they lost to Stanford but if they can fix their issues on the front seven with run defense and if Moevao can have a little better ball security they will be in the mix for a top 5 Pac-10 finish. Playing at Penn State might be a bit too much too ask at this point for a young team.
8. LSJU (8) – Very nice win versus OSU, Jim Harbaugh has done a good job of getting everything he can out of his players but depth and athleticism are clearly lacking. Going in to Tempe and looking for a win is probably too much to ask at this point. The schedule makers did Stanford no favors with only 5 home games this year.
9. WSU (10) – The only reason I have them 9th is that they have an easier schedule than Washington and have a better chance of having their QB survive the season. They should be able to give Cal a game for a half but I don’t see an upset occurring.
10. UW (7) – The Huskies are in major trouble. They have a schedule set up like they are defending national champs not a below average Pac-10 team. They need to get better protection for Locker who will face long odds in lasting the season, the Dawgs could beat BYU but will face tough odds against a physical team needing a BCS conference road win to make their case for a BCS berth if they were to go 12-0.

Pac 10 Power Poll – Week One

Oregon vs Arizona State
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll – Week One
Sorry to make excuses but I will not be able to break out my full yearly preview that I normally do. Life with a 20 month old child is a lot busier than the days of past. Evie is doing great and growing by leaps and bounds. Emily and I have been taking her to Gymboree twice a week the last few weeks and she is really enjoying it. Well now on to football and clearly USC is the cream of the crop and I would not be shocked to see them run the table in the Pac 10. I think the overall talent level of the conference has dropped from last year to this a bit – some of it is related to attrition to graduation and the NFL but another major factor is the lack of quarterback depth at many schools. UCLA already faces major issues and both Oregon and Oregon State are one injury away at the quarterback spot from having dismal seasons. Again this poll is not where I think the teams will finish at the end of the year it is where I have them ranked today. This is what I busted out on my lunch break today and hopefully after watching some games this weekend I will learn a whole lot more and can bring more to the table next week.
1. USC - The Trojans had more hype going in to last year than this year and were oh so close to a shot at another BCS championship in 2008. Only a few fateful plays by Stanford (and a poor decision by Pete Carroll not to pull John David Booty when his finger was clearly bothering him) kept USC from having the opportunity to destroy Ohio State in the BCS Championship game. USC lost Keith Rivers and Sedrick Ellis to the NFL but should still remain dominant on defense. I have some questions about the offense but this is still a Top 5 team and I would be shocked to see them lose 2 games again in the Pac 10. Mark Sanchez is likely out for Virginia but the Cavs lack the talent to hang with USC and the offense under Mitch Mustain should be fine.
2. Arizona State – The schedule is tougher this year than last but Dennis Erickson has some things going for him this year in that he has a senior QB, will have his typical JC mercenaries in their second year in the program and if you remember he took Oregon State to the Fiesta Bowl in his second season their with much tougher recruiting obstacles than Erickson faces at ASU. However his players also face much more opportunities to get themselves in to trouble so team chemistry and characters issues could certainly arise. Week one’s matchup versus Northern Arizona will likely be treated more like a scrimmage than a real game for the Devils.
3. Oregon – The Ducks have a major flaw in their high flying offense and that is quarterback depth. The road schedule is brutal. With an injury to Justin Roper early in the year I could see the Ducks winning as little as 3 games this year but if he can stay healthy and Massouli and Harper/Thomas can figure out how the offense I think that Oregon could win as many as 9 games. The defense will be among the best in the conference and should force many turnovers. The question will be if Roper can stay healthy. I think that Florida’s national championship team is the model Oregon will want to use, with Roper playing the Leak role and Massouli and Harper playing more the Tebow role. Roper needs to avoid contact as much as possible, he is quick for his size but lanky. The Ducks should beat Washington as long as Roper stays healthy, the Dawgs have the ability to make this game close just because of Locker but the Ducks have had Washington’s number for awhile and I see that continuing.
4. Cal – Cal needs to regain their heart which was ripped out of it by the loss to Oregon State last year – this is a talented roster that overall may have the second best set of athletes after USC in the conference but they took major hits to skills position guys on offense and will depend on talented and fast but young wide receivers. I look for Cal to pull out a close win versus the similarly styled but a bit less talented Michigan State Spartans.
5. Oregon State Beavers – Massive hits on defense and the loss of Yvensen Bernard could spell early trouble for this traditionally slow starting team. Stanford should be a battle tonight and I don’t have a good feeling either way on how it breaks out since Stanford has a brand new DC. Oregon State will likely finish the year higher than this but if they were to lose Muavo early they, just like Oregon, can flush the year down the toilet. Sean Canfield may never be healthy and after his is a redshirt freshman walk-on in Justin Engstrom. I like the Beavers in a close win tonight down in Palo Alto.
6. Arizona Wildcats – Arizona could end up being the surprise team of the year with a senior QB now in his fourth year of starting and finally getting a chance to run the same offense a second time. The Cats need to avoid their poor early start and on paper could actually be favored in their first 7 games. With Idaho coming to town not much of the playbook will be used and I expect to see backups in much of the second half.
7. Washington Huskies – Jake Locker like Justin Roper needs to stay healthy for Washington to have any chance of managing its minefield early schedule and saving Ty Willingham’s job. The Huskies played tough first half last year but lacked the depth to finish teams off, the defense is replacing a ton of guys and the oline is subpar. None of these factors make me think that Washington will be sniffing a bowl game this year but at least Willingham has improved recruiting enough that the next coach should have a winning year his first year out. The Huskies could shock the Ducks if they can stop the pass early and make Oregon one-dimensional but that will be tough with the arm of Roper and the fleet Oregon receivers.
8. Stanford Cardinal – Stanford was giving hope by Jim Harbaugh, they have some NFL athletes but just like every Stanford team lack depth and face tough road tests this year at Notre Dame and TCu. Stanford also has the unfortunate situation of playing two straight league games against teams they will be underdogs to start the year. A win over the Beavers would bring good momentum and is very necessary if they have any chance of going bowling.
9. UCLA Bruins – This is probably the team with the third best athletes in the league but QB injury issues will make them look quite inept and they lost a ton on defense. Tennessee should be able to come in and shut down UCLA on its home field. Expect lots of stories on ESPN on how the Pac 10 is down after this result Neuheisal will get this team turned around but it won’t be until 2009.
10. Washington State was hit by the double whammy of losing a few players to behavior and injury issues from the program as well as losing 7 schollies due to academic problems with the NCAA. The Cougars will score points with a senior QB in Rogers and perhaps the best wide receiver in the league in Brandon Gibson but the defense clearly will stink. The Coug can only go up from here but I see a last place finish for them. Oklahoma State will prove to be too much in week one even though the game will be played at Qwest Field in Seattle.

Summertime in Oregon

Evie at the Fountain
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Just checking in quickly during the dog day's of August. I've had a busy summer, work's in pretty crazy with some technology changes and I made some time to visit Sun Valley, Idaho with some friends for my buddy Jeremy's bachelor party. This weekend I am going to be in is wedding and that should mark the end of all the weddings I have attended for awhile. Looking forward to the football season and being back in Eugene for games. I think the news from camp has been positive for the most part. I see Oregon winning between 8 and 10 games this year, likely ending up back in the Sun Bowl or perhaps the Holiday Bowl.