Pac 10 Power Poll – Week One

Oregon vs Arizona State
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Pac 10 Power Poll – Week One
Sorry to make excuses but I will not be able to break out my full yearly preview that I normally do. Life with a 20 month old child is a lot busier than the days of past. Evie is doing great and growing by leaps and bounds. Emily and I have been taking her to Gymboree twice a week the last few weeks and she is really enjoying it. Well now on to football and clearly USC is the cream of the crop and I would not be shocked to see them run the table in the Pac 10. I think the overall talent level of the conference has dropped from last year to this a bit – some of it is related to attrition to graduation and the NFL but another major factor is the lack of quarterback depth at many schools. UCLA already faces major issues and both Oregon and Oregon State are one injury away at the quarterback spot from having dismal seasons. Again this poll is not where I think the teams will finish at the end of the year it is where I have them ranked today. This is what I busted out on my lunch break today and hopefully after watching some games this weekend I will learn a whole lot more and can bring more to the table next week.
1. USC - The Trojans had more hype going in to last year than this year and were oh so close to a shot at another BCS championship in 2008. Only a few fateful plays by Stanford (and a poor decision by Pete Carroll not to pull John David Booty when his finger was clearly bothering him) kept USC from having the opportunity to destroy Ohio State in the BCS Championship game. USC lost Keith Rivers and Sedrick Ellis to the NFL but should still remain dominant on defense. I have some questions about the offense but this is still a Top 5 team and I would be shocked to see them lose 2 games again in the Pac 10. Mark Sanchez is likely out for Virginia but the Cavs lack the talent to hang with USC and the offense under Mitch Mustain should be fine.
2. Arizona State – The schedule is tougher this year than last but Dennis Erickson has some things going for him this year in that he has a senior QB, will have his typical JC mercenaries in their second year in the program and if you remember he took Oregon State to the Fiesta Bowl in his second season their with much tougher recruiting obstacles than Erickson faces at ASU. However his players also face much more opportunities to get themselves in to trouble so team chemistry and characters issues could certainly arise. Week one’s matchup versus Northern Arizona will likely be treated more like a scrimmage than a real game for the Devils.
3. Oregon – The Ducks have a major flaw in their high flying offense and that is quarterback depth. The road schedule is brutal. With an injury to Justin Roper early in the year I could see the Ducks winning as little as 3 games this year but if he can stay healthy and Massouli and Harper/Thomas can figure out how the offense I think that Oregon could win as many as 9 games. The defense will be among the best in the conference and should force many turnovers. The question will be if Roper can stay healthy. I think that Florida’s national championship team is the model Oregon will want to use, with Roper playing the Leak role and Massouli and Harper playing more the Tebow role. Roper needs to avoid contact as much as possible, he is quick for his size but lanky. The Ducks should beat Washington as long as Roper stays healthy, the Dawgs have the ability to make this game close just because of Locker but the Ducks have had Washington’s number for awhile and I see that continuing.
4. Cal – Cal needs to regain their heart which was ripped out of it by the loss to Oregon State last year – this is a talented roster that overall may have the second best set of athletes after USC in the conference but they took major hits to skills position guys on offense and will depend on talented and fast but young wide receivers. I look for Cal to pull out a close win versus the similarly styled but a bit less talented Michigan State Spartans.
5. Oregon State Beavers – Massive hits on defense and the loss of Yvensen Bernard could spell early trouble for this traditionally slow starting team. Stanford should be a battle tonight and I don’t have a good feeling either way on how it breaks out since Stanford has a brand new DC. Oregon State will likely finish the year higher than this but if they were to lose Muavo early they, just like Oregon, can flush the year down the toilet. Sean Canfield may never be healthy and after his is a redshirt freshman walk-on in Justin Engstrom. I like the Beavers in a close win tonight down in Palo Alto.
6. Arizona Wildcats – Arizona could end up being the surprise team of the year with a senior QB now in his fourth year of starting and finally getting a chance to run the same offense a second time. The Cats need to avoid their poor early start and on paper could actually be favored in their first 7 games. With Idaho coming to town not much of the playbook will be used and I expect to see backups in much of the second half.
7. Washington Huskies – Jake Locker like Justin Roper needs to stay healthy for Washington to have any chance of managing its minefield early schedule and saving Ty Willingham’s job. The Huskies played tough first half last year but lacked the depth to finish teams off, the defense is replacing a ton of guys and the oline is subpar. None of these factors make me think that Washington will be sniffing a bowl game this year but at least Willingham has improved recruiting enough that the next coach should have a winning year his first year out. The Huskies could shock the Ducks if they can stop the pass early and make Oregon one-dimensional but that will be tough with the arm of Roper and the fleet Oregon receivers.
8. Stanford Cardinal – Stanford was giving hope by Jim Harbaugh, they have some NFL athletes but just like every Stanford team lack depth and face tough road tests this year at Notre Dame and TCu. Stanford also has the unfortunate situation of playing two straight league games against teams they will be underdogs to start the year. A win over the Beavers would bring good momentum and is very necessary if they have any chance of going bowling.
9. UCLA Bruins – This is probably the team with the third best athletes in the league but QB injury issues will make them look quite inept and they lost a ton on defense. Tennessee should be able to come in and shut down UCLA on its home field. Expect lots of stories on ESPN on how the Pac 10 is down after this result Neuheisal will get this team turned around but it won’t be until 2009.
10. Washington State was hit by the double whammy of losing a few players to behavior and injury issues from the program as well as losing 7 schollies due to academic problems with the NCAA. The Cougars will score points with a senior QB in Rogers and perhaps the best wide receiver in the league in Brandon Gibson but the defense clearly will stink. The Coug can only go up from here but I see a last place finish for them. Oklahoma State will prove to be too much in week one even though the game will be played at Qwest Field in Seattle.