Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 12 Review

The big news of this week was obviously USC’s beat down of Notre Dame. Pete Carroll clearly out-coached Weis and Notre Dame just couldn’t get it done in the red-zone. USC now is just 60 minutes away from playing OSU for the BCS Championship. Much kudos to Pete Carroll who I have criticized rightfully in the past for some questionable in game decisions but since the OSU wake-up call USC has played very smart ball. Not sure that they have the experience to beat Ohio State yet but next year this team should be the surefire #1 to start the season. In other news Arizona State beat Arizona in a game that was aided by the knocking out of Willy Tuitama on a cheap shot. Arizona clearly can’t win over anyone outside of Stanford without their QB and there has to be worries now that he has suffered 3 concussions in less than a year. As reward for beating his in-state rival Dirk Koetter was let go off his duties though will receive a nice buyout and should be seen sometime soon as an OC somewhere around the country. Oregon and Oregon State was a classic game that clearly came down to which team had the better kicker. Give the Beavs credit for taking advantage of every mistake Oregon made. Also give credit to Bellotti for giving Brady Leaf a shot, he played a smarter game than Dixon would have and the Ducks overall showed great improvement over their last three performances in Corvallis.

1. USC (1) – Have had no problem in rolling through their “gauntlet” of a schedule since the Stanford game. Now all that stands between them and the BCS championship game is a feisty but ultimately lacking in playmakers UCLA team.
2. Cal (2) – Likely Holiday Bowl bound the BCS has yet to release them from consideration for a Rose Bowl bid. They shouldn’t have much problems with Stanford this week but I wonder how much motivation they have left for the Holiday Bowl.
3. UCLA (3) – The win over ASU two weeks ago looks better now that the Devils beat the Cats. UCLA will need to play the best game of the Karl Dorrell era to beat the Trojans. I have a feeling UCLA loses to USC but find them-selves spending Christmas in Hawaii.
4. OSU (4) – Did just enough to beat Oregon, many thanks due to the lack of mistakes by the offense and the leg of Alexis Serna. On the other hand what in the world was Mike Riley doing throwing the ball late in the 4^th quarter with the big lead? They now face the mother off all “trap” games in Hawaii before the Sun Bowl becons.
5. ASU (7) – The Territorial Cup is usually won by the underdog, this year was no exception but still the Devils fired Dirk Koetter. I’d expect to see them in the Insight Bowl, as for coaching candidates Norm Chow would be killer there.
6. UA (5) – Huge letdown for the Cats to lose to ASU at home but the Tuitama injury didn’t help at all. However the Arizona defense was clueless for the first 20 minutes of this game and allowed ASU to get 3 early TD’s. Now UA will play the waiting game to see if they can make it to a bowl. The likely Candidate I would say is the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco.
7. UO (6) – To call the 2006 Oregon season a disappointment is probably an understatement. The Ducks played a very inspired second half against Oregon State which was surprising considering the lack of second half efforts over much of the season. The Ducks have 7 wins and the Las Vegas Bowl has gone on record as saying they don’t want a 6-6 team so I would wager the Ducks end up in Las Vegas.
8. UW (8) – Nothing new to add from last week, the Huskies season is still over and eyes are on hoops.
9. WSU (9) – The Cougars have 6 wins but I don’t see them getting a bowl invite.
10. Stanford (10) – The stadium should be full for the Big Game. The biggest question that remains is whether Saturday’s game will be the final one of the Walt Harris era.

Week 11 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Well what some had thought would be the year that saw USC’s reign at the top end never came as the Trojans were able to beat Cal who can now only get a share of the championship with a win over Stanford and a USC loss to UCLA, then it would only be a shared championship with a loss to the team that they are tied with. USC is now two games from playing in yet another national championship game. On paper it looked like this was the most vulnerable year for the Trojans but good play and a favorable home schedule helped out Pete Carroll’s boys yet again. The big news outside of LA was the upset of the Oregon Ducks by Arizona. I personally sat through this game and have never seen such as uninspired and ill prepared Oregon team take the field. Oregon has been taken to the woodshed quite a few times in the last few years but in those games they were at least able to play well in the first half or mount second half comebacks. This game was lost by a combination of poor play by the defense, offense and special teams. Amazing how Oregon has gone in the tank offensively after the hot September where many folks thought they had the nation’s best offense. Outside of 2005 which was a mirage due to an easy schedule Oregon has been a disappointing program since the departure of Joey Harrington and Jeff Tedford. Kudos to the Washington Huskies for having the intestinal fortitude to win the Apple Cup after losing at home to Stanford. The result was quite unfortunate for the Cougars who have gone in to a tailspin since beating Oregon. UCLA got a nice win against an up and down ASU team and gave them-selves at least a chance to get a bowl invite even if they lose to USC.

USC (1) – Likely outright Pac 10 champs for the 4th successive season USC now finds itself two wins away from playing for another BCS championship. USC has been dominant since the 3rd quarter of the Oregon State game and I expect them beat Notre Dame in what hopefully is a game on par with the quality of last year’s match-up.
Arizona (4) – Left for dead a month ago Mike Stoops has not only saved his job he has a contender for next year’s Pac 10 title. This team has become the team that many in the national media predicted before the season, it just took about 9 games for them to get to that point. The question for Stoops next year is whether he can keep up the momentum.
Cal (2) – All in all when you look at the whole of this season Cal fans have to consider it a disappointment. Their defense played well enough to beat both Arizona and USC but they were let down by the offense. Will Cal lay down in their bowl game like they did in the 2004 Holiday Bowl?
UCLA (6) – Dorrell avoid getting himself in trouble with a losing season. This team likely ends up 6-6 which is right about where I figured they would end up. They have the pieces to get back to 9 wins next season if the offense can open a bit more. Maurice Drew was sorely missed from this year’s Bruin team. UCLA now has two weeks to prepare for USC and if they have the effort they got against Notre Dame should at least make this game competitive.
OSU (7) – Went out and won on the road, joining three other road teams who landed tough November wins, well okay this one wasn’t tough but a win is a win in November on the road. Oregon State now looks ready to pour salt in the once might Ducks wounds in a game I’d expect to get very ugly fast.
UO (3) – The Ducks look like they have quit to me. The program seems to have morphed from that of a plucky bunch of overachievers to one that is more reminiscent of the late 90’s Trojan teams of Paul Hackett. Lots of talent but fold when things don’t go their way after a fast start. I expect a loss in Corvallis and then a poor performance in a third tier bowl where the Ducks drop a winnable game to a team that just wants to be there a whole lot more than them. Good thing Wake Forest won’t be the opponent his year.
ASU (5) – Dirk Koetter seems to love being a .500 coach. It seems as if the underdog usually wins the battle for state bragging rights in the UA-ASU rivalry but this year I expect the Cats to be the team that ends up with 7 wins not ASU. This season was probably doomed from the whole fallout of the Keller-Carpenter QB battle which wasn’t handled well by the coach.
UW (10) – Best wishes to Johnny DuRocher, now who’d have eve thought you’d hear those words out of my mouth. The Dawgs no matter how bad things get still know how to ruin WSU’s year and accomplished it in another disappointing Apple Cup for the Cougars.
WSU (8) – 2006, yep still Cooging it. They join the likely log jam of 3 6 win teams hoping for bowl bids and they are likely the last one chosen. I think they ended their season last week.
LSJU (9) – Two weeks till the Big Game. I’d expect Stanford to be loose and Cal to not care much. Still the Bears will win this one by at least 14 and the Trees can thankfully end their year of hell.

Week 11 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

The Pac 10 is usually a pretty wacky conference and last Saturday proved to be one of the strangest days in recent history not just in the Pac 10 but nationally. Underdogs won 4 of 5 games in the Pac 10, 3 of them by wide margins. USC which was all but given up for the dead in the BCS race just two weeks ago now needs to beat Notre Dame at home and UCLA on the road and they will be facing the Michigan Ohio State winner in the national championship game (what a shame this won’t be played in the Rose Bowl if this is in case the match-up). The question facing me this week in my power poll was where how rank teams 3-8 who in the last 6 weeks have pummeled each-other in to submission. Do you look at the quality of your wins or your losses? No one on this list of the 6 midrange teams in this league has more than one real quality win on their slate while if you simply look at who teams have lost to then Oregon probably has the best argument however their only quality win of the year has a huge asterisk next to it. Kudos to Arizona for basically pulling a Chicago Bears and winning a game with virtually no offense and running any hopes of a national title shot in Berkeley. The Bears can still make the Rose Bowl with a win in LA next weekend but confidence has to be low and the Trojans are playing their best ball of the year in the time that counts. Jeers to OSU and UW for crapping on themselves and blowing what should have been very winnable games. Oregon again had very shaky play from Dennis Dixon and though they were able to move the ball on USC quite effectively turned the ball over in very poor situations leading to too many short fields for USC. Oregon’s first drive was masterful, to get no points out of it was indicative of the day. At this point it looks as if the Pac 10 will likely only end up with 2 teams in the top 25 in the final poll before the bowls and if Cal goes out and lays a stinker in the Holiday and suffers its 4th loss they might find themselves out of the Top 25. While 6 weeks ago many were saying that the pack had caught up to the lead dog in this conference the facts now just don’t seem to bear that out. A large number of 5 and 6 win teams are out there in the conference, no 6 win team is allowed a bowl bid until every 7 win team out there has received a bid. As of now only Oregon has 7 wins and UCLA and Arizona will need to win two games to get there. Oregon State should be safe to get to 7 wins with Stanford remaining on the schedule but everyone else will have some issues getting their requisite 7 wins.

USC (2) - Just executed a lot better than Oregon did, on paper USC is probably not 28 points better than the Ducks but they sure played like they wanted it a whole lot more. Ironically USC’s loss to OSU seems to have meant nothing in the BCS now. Had they beat the Beavs they would still be sitting at #2 or #3 in the BCS and assured a spot in the BCS championship game with wins versus Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA.
Cal (1) - Cal fell victim to the onerous trap game syndrome in Tucson and lost all chances of playing for a national championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can get off the mat and beat USC in the Coliseum, easier said than done. Cal needs to get back to running the ball more I think. Arizona did a good job of containing the two headed monster. The Tedford offense has always been one that requires balance and that didn’t happen versus the Wildcats, Longshore didn’t make good decisions and if he can’t afford such mistakes against USC.
UO (3) – Not sure Oregon deserves to be here. This is a talented team that has overachieved on defense and has been highly productive against mediocre teams on offense at the same time they have been mistake prone and this has killed them in games versus similar or better talent teams. The have only 2 wins over teams with over .500 records and one of those wins has a huge asterisk beside it due to the oft repeated replay issue versus Oklahoma. The Ducks are a good team at home only right now, that doesn’t bode well for the Civil War match-up in two weeks in Corvallis.
UA (7) - Mike Stoops isn’t much of a coach in September and October but he sure can coach in November. He now is one win from being bowl eligible and should put a scare in to Oregon this week in Eugene. Arizona still has major issues on offense, they beat Cal by forcing mistakes in the passing game and shutting down the run. This model could work brilliantly against the Ducks. I expect a close game. Arizona has 3 wins over at the time Top 25 schools but only have 5 wins overall.
ASU (6) – Dismantled the wounded Cougars and got to 6 wins and will face a UCLA team at home that needs to beat ASU to even have a shot at a bowl with 6 wins. I think ASU is playing well enough at home to win this one which will clinch up a bowl bid for them before they play the Wildcats for state bragging rights.
UCLA (8) – They handily defeated the Beavs so I had to rank them higher this week but fairly or not Karl Dorrell could be facing the firing squad if UCLA doesn’t beat ASU and make a close game of the match-up versus USC. UCLA has talent and I hope Dorrell gets another shot to coach them next year but I don’t see how they can get to 7 wins and even getting to 6 will be tough. Their kids showed a lot of character in shutting down the Beavs who had been on quite a run lately.
OSU (4) – Took a big drop this week. I expected more of this team but UCLA certainly had Matt Moore’s number last year and that trend continued. Oregon State will now need to rebound down on the farm before the Civil War is played. Quite a key game for the Beavs to take care of business as wins versus Oregon and Hawaii will take A games to get victories. Oregon State has a habit of being beat twice by tough losses so Riley needs to make sure there is not letdown against Stanford.
WSU (5) – At one time this was a Top 25 team with quite a resume and had Holiday Bowl thoughts on their mind. Now they need to take care of woeful UW at home this week to ensure they get to play one more game. The Cougars have been decimated by injuries since they defeated Oregon in a game the Ducks would love to replay now. Strange things always happen in the Apple Cups especially when they are played in Pullman.
Stanford (10) – The unthinkable happened and Stanford won a game, on the road even. Is this enough to save Walt Harris? Kudos to the kids at Stanford for not giving up on the year and I hope they enjoyed their celebration. Now they come home with a chance to ruin Oregon State’s season in what should be a very ugly game. Mike Riley has built his resume on beating bad teams so I like Oregon State but the win at Washington proves that middle range teams can’t just show up if they plan on beating Stanford.
UW (9) – What a difference a competent dual threat QB can make, Washington was on the verge of the Top 25 before Isaiah Stanback’s career was ended prematurely on the turf in Washington’s crushing loss to Oregon State, now they are nursing a long losing streak and have nothing to play for but to ruin another Cougar football season with an Apple Cup win. As low as it has been for the Washington program lately the loss by 17 at home to Stanford maybe well be the nadir for this one proud program. I almost feel sorry for them, almost.

Week 10 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Well being the Pac 10 you know that one thing can be guaranteed just about every week this season and that is that there will be an upset that not many people saw happening to a ranked opponent. This week pretty much every game turned out what one might expect, though ASU I thought would have played better than they did, except for the Arizona – WSU match-up in the Palouse. Maybe Washington State forgot to eat their Wheaties this week but to lose a home game to Arizona is just not acceptable especially when you are sitting in the Top 25 and have the tie breaker for the third spot in the Pac 10 over Oregon and Oregon State. This victory has to be huge for the morale of the Wildcats somehow found an offense over the weekend and did a good job of shutting down the Cougar air attack. The key match-up this week is the Oregon-USC game, the Ducks played a nice game versus UW but were still hurt by turnovers. Oregon can’t afford to go -2 versus USC to have any shot at winning. Both these teams are close to unstoppable if they don’t turn the ball over so the defense that rises up to the occasion should lead their team to victory in a game that will likely see more than 60 combined points. I like the Trojans to win a close game because they have the better defensive unit (now if Oregon were not missing 5 starters that might not be the case). I heard on a TV news program that Karl Dorrell was going to lose his job after the season and that the Cal game was the final nail in the coffin. If this is the case I will be pretty disappointed in the UCLA AD. Dorrell went out and won 10 games this year and lost most of his starting 22 to graduation or the NFL after last season. This was expected to be a rebuilding year in Westwood, outside of dropping the UW game all the games the Bruins have lost this year have been ones they have not been favored to win though I do think the score should have been closer in the WSU game. UCLA’s second half schedule has arguably been the nation’s toughest. I think if UCLA can open their offense up a bit next year they should have a solid year, most of the starting 22 will be back from what has been up until lately a pretty solid defensive club. Beating the white hot Beavers this week would be a key W for Dorrell in his argument to be allowed another year in Westwood.

1. Cal (1) – Still rolling along well though giving up 24 to UCLA at home is a bit much for what you would expect Cal to be allowing this late in the year. The season still is going to come down to the USC game. I don’t think Tucson will be a trap game for Cal, the Wildcats are now back on everyone’s radar after beating the Cougars so I don’t think Cal will look past them even with the Trojan game the following week.
2. USC (2) – I though USC minus 28.5 was a steal in the Stanford and this was proven by the Trojans going out and pasting Stanford 42-0. Oregon will not go down so easily, the Trojans still control their own Pac 10 destiny but the shot at the NCAA championship game is likely gone looking at the BCS numbers out there. USC will no doubt see their schedule strength rise but the human voters are down on them right now.
3. OSU (4) – Talked to a Beaver fan before the tailgate at the Oregon-Washington game this weekend. He said he wished that OSU had lost to USC, now that they beat USC Riley was bound to stay another couple years. To the Oregon State coaches and players I just want to say you deserve better from your fans, keep playing for yourselves. All of a sudden the Beavers look like the 1994 Ducks who lost some early games, had the fans calling for a new coach and QB and then went out and made it to the Rose Bowl. The Beavs could win out from here and will have to look back at that WSU loss they let slip away as what really cost them this season more so than the Cal and Boise State games.
4. UO (6) – Nice bounce back game for the Oregon Ducks who ran the ball relentlessly on the Huskies and held UW to 13 yards on the ground. The score was closer than the game was due to some turnovers by the Ducks offense and special teams. Not sure if they have the horses left to beat the Trojans in LA.
5. WSU (3) – Congrats Cougars you just suffered the worst home loss of any Pac 10 team this season that is in bowl contention, though due to the Pac 10’s awful bowl rotation does it really matter where you finish after the first two spots?
6. ASU (5) – God awful performance by ASU, I clearly have been over-ranking this team all year. Interesting to see which team wins the WSU-ASU match-up this week as both are coming off highly disappoint performances. Look for Rick Neuheisel’s name to be thrown around about the ASU and UCLA jobs, neither school will touch him by the way.
7. UA (9) – First time that Arizona has gotten out of the 9 hole in quite awhile. Not that it is receiving much publicity but WSU losing to Arizona at home was a more unlikely outcome than USC losing to Oregon State. The national implications and historical implications were obviously not comparable but the score was just as shocking in my book.
8. UCLA (8) – I am not surprised that they have lost 4 in a row as they played quite a tough schedule. Losing by 14 in Berkeley is not something to fire a coach over.
9. UW (7) – The wheels on the bus finally have fallen off. Washington was clearly outmatched by Oregon but Stanford is coming to Montlake and that should ensure a 5th win for the Huskies. The Apple Cup now looks like it could (and I emphasize could) give the Dawgs a shot get to .500 , a week ago I wouldn’t have thought that possible but the Cougs proved again that they are capable of crapping the bed just when things are starting to get good for them.
10. LSJU (10) – They have a top notch water polo progam

Week Nine Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

October 28th will be forever remembered in not only Corvallis but in locales across the West Coast. It was the day that the Pete Carroll USC dynasty officially ended. It is an old adage that if you win the turnover battle and you will usually win the game. Oregon State managed to force 4 turnovers while turnover prone Matt Moore and his mates surrendered none. Oregon State while certainly not the better team nor the more talented team was better for one day in a game that proved what college football is about. On the other hand I wonder how many Beaver fans have decided to bag out on hunting season now and go to the Civil War. What was an empty bandwagon has been filled once more. Mike Riley deserves credit for keeping him team together, I hope that the students and alumni who were calling for his head on a plate and called for the premature ending of the Matt Moore era enjoyed some crow last Saturday. The Pac 10 race is now Cal’s to lose and it appears that all chances of a 2 BCS Bowl season for the league are over along with the extra 400K in the coffers of each school’s budget. Now it will come down to Cal and USC for the Rose while the remaining schools, except for Stanford and unless they pull out a miracle Arizona, will fight to get to the remaining bowl games. Six wins gets you a chance (but all 7 win schools nationally get first bid on bowls) so 7 will be the magic number to guarantee one a spot.

Power Poll

1. Cal (2) – This week marks the first time USC has not been leading my poll since it debuted last year. Cal has not played a solid game since the Oregon game and one has to believe that the Fighting Tedfords enjoyed their bye-week and got healthy. I don’t see Cal having much problem from a reeling UCLA in Strawberry Canyon this week though UCLA’s defense should at least keep Cal from breaking the 40 point barrier.
2. USC (1) – The mighty giant was finally knocked off, that USC lost was not a surprise though I don’t think many folks predicted it would have been by the now resurgent Beavs who have won 3 straight league match-ups. USC now will need to beat Cal and not fumble up against Stanford, UCLA or Oregon to have any greater hopes than the Holiday Bowl, a game which they have never actually played in. USC will start a new streak this week as they will be down on the Farm against hapless Stanford in a game that could see USC put up 50+ points.
3. WSU (4) – The Cougars now find themselves in the Top 25 after beating down UCLA who has watched their once promising season go down the tubes. Arizona shouldn’t present much of a problem for WSU who has been playing as well on offense as anyone in the conference the last two weeks. Special team injuries may be a concern but do you really need a punter and kicker for Arizona at home?
4. OSU (7) – You beat USC and you go up the charts. OSU will now go for 4 in a row with the match-up versus ASU down in Tempe. Typically after a huge upset such as the one the Beavers pulled off there is a letdown, I will predict that ASU ends up defeating the Beavers in Tempe in a game where the winner has a good shot at going to the Sun Bowl. In addition, Mike Riley has saved his job as OSU coach for all extensive purposes, save for losing out this year.
5. ASU (3) – Won a tough game on the road against UW but another injury on the line will hamper ASU as they host the suddenly hot Beavs. Normally I wouldn’t drop a team that won a road game two spots but the great efforts of WSU on the road and OSU against USC trump ASU beating an injury depleted UW in OT.
6. UO (5) – Yes the Ducks won last week and yes they are 6-2 right now but this team is a shell of what is once was due to injuries. That UO is 6-2 right now is a coaching miracle with the extent of injuries suffered by Oregon and with the turnover ratio. Oregon looks headed for the Vegas or Emerald Bowl and will have a tough time winning any of the remaining two road games on the schedule. For the Ducks it is 1998 all over again in terms of how the year may play out.
7. UW (8) – UW played just well enough to lose and now likely faces another losing season with two remaining road games against fierce rivals Oregon and Wazzu. Washington should have enough left in the tank to beat Stanford and give the Ducks a game but Husky fans will look back all year at the hiccup they faced with OSU and the injury to Stanback in that game. All in all the season has been a minor success in Montlake but not what it looked like it could have been a month ago.
8. UCLA (6) UCLA faced an easy early schedule but is now in freefall mode. The likelihood of a bowl game looks pretty glim now for coach Dorrell and I wouldn’t discount the chance that UCLA will not win another game this year. This has to be looked at as a huge step back for a program that won 10 games in 2005.
9. Arizona (9) – At 3-5 a bowl game is still a mathematical possibility but in all reality the season is over. AD Livengood says Stoops is not in any danger, is this the dreaded vote of confidence or will Stoops get another shot?
10. Stanford (10) – And the hits just keep on coming. The Trees get to host an angry Trojan team and even having a bye will not help them keep the Trojans from scoring less than 40.