Week 11 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

The Pac 10 is usually a pretty wacky conference and last Saturday proved to be one of the strangest days in recent history not just in the Pac 10 but nationally. Underdogs won 4 of 5 games in the Pac 10, 3 of them by wide margins. USC which was all but given up for the dead in the BCS race just two weeks ago now needs to beat Notre Dame at home and UCLA on the road and they will be facing the Michigan Ohio State winner in the national championship game (what a shame this won’t be played in the Rose Bowl if this is in case the match-up). The question facing me this week in my power poll was where how rank teams 3-8 who in the last 6 weeks have pummeled each-other in to submission. Do you look at the quality of your wins or your losses? No one on this list of the 6 midrange teams in this league has more than one real quality win on their slate while if you simply look at who teams have lost to then Oregon probably has the best argument however their only quality win of the year has a huge asterisk next to it. Kudos to Arizona for basically pulling a Chicago Bears and winning a game with virtually no offense and running any hopes of a national title shot in Berkeley. The Bears can still make the Rose Bowl with a win in LA next weekend but confidence has to be low and the Trojans are playing their best ball of the year in the time that counts. Jeers to OSU and UW for crapping on themselves and blowing what should have been very winnable games. Oregon again had very shaky play from Dennis Dixon and though they were able to move the ball on USC quite effectively turned the ball over in very poor situations leading to too many short fields for USC. Oregon’s first drive was masterful, to get no points out of it was indicative of the day. At this point it looks as if the Pac 10 will likely only end up with 2 teams in the top 25 in the final poll before the bowls and if Cal goes out and lays a stinker in the Holiday and suffers its 4th loss they might find themselves out of the Top 25. While 6 weeks ago many were saying that the pack had caught up to the lead dog in this conference the facts now just don’t seem to bear that out. A large number of 5 and 6 win teams are out there in the conference, no 6 win team is allowed a bowl bid until every 7 win team out there has received a bid. As of now only Oregon has 7 wins and UCLA and Arizona will need to win two games to get there. Oregon State should be safe to get to 7 wins with Stanford remaining on the schedule but everyone else will have some issues getting their requisite 7 wins.

USC (2) - Just executed a lot better than Oregon did, on paper USC is probably not 28 points better than the Ducks but they sure played like they wanted it a whole lot more. Ironically USC’s loss to OSU seems to have meant nothing in the BCS now. Had they beat the Beavs they would still be sitting at #2 or #3 in the BCS and assured a spot in the BCS championship game with wins versus Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA.
Cal (1) - Cal fell victim to the onerous trap game syndrome in Tucson and lost all chances of playing for a national championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can get off the mat and beat USC in the Coliseum, easier said than done. Cal needs to get back to running the ball more I think. Arizona did a good job of containing the two headed monster. The Tedford offense has always been one that requires balance and that didn’t happen versus the Wildcats, Longshore didn’t make good decisions and if he can’t afford such mistakes against USC.
UO (3) – Not sure Oregon deserves to be here. This is a talented team that has overachieved on defense and has been highly productive against mediocre teams on offense at the same time they have been mistake prone and this has killed them in games versus similar or better talent teams. The have only 2 wins over teams with over .500 records and one of those wins has a huge asterisk beside it due to the oft repeated replay issue versus Oklahoma. The Ducks are a good team at home only right now, that doesn’t bode well for the Civil War match-up in two weeks in Corvallis.
UA (7) - Mike Stoops isn’t much of a coach in September and October but he sure can coach in November. He now is one win from being bowl eligible and should put a scare in to Oregon this week in Eugene. Arizona still has major issues on offense, they beat Cal by forcing mistakes in the passing game and shutting down the run. This model could work brilliantly against the Ducks. I expect a close game. Arizona has 3 wins over at the time Top 25 schools but only have 5 wins overall.
ASU (6) – Dismantled the wounded Cougars and got to 6 wins and will face a UCLA team at home that needs to beat ASU to even have a shot at a bowl with 6 wins. I think ASU is playing well enough at home to win this one which will clinch up a bowl bid for them before they play the Wildcats for state bragging rights.
UCLA (8) – They handily defeated the Beavs so I had to rank them higher this week but fairly or not Karl Dorrell could be facing the firing squad if UCLA doesn’t beat ASU and make a close game of the match-up versus USC. UCLA has talent and I hope Dorrell gets another shot to coach them next year but I don’t see how they can get to 7 wins and even getting to 6 will be tough. Their kids showed a lot of character in shutting down the Beavs who had been on quite a run lately.
OSU (4) – Took a big drop this week. I expected more of this team but UCLA certainly had Matt Moore’s number last year and that trend continued. Oregon State will now need to rebound down on the farm before the Civil War is played. Quite a key game for the Beavs to take care of business as wins versus Oregon and Hawaii will take A games to get victories. Oregon State has a habit of being beat twice by tough losses so Riley needs to make sure there is not letdown against Stanford.
WSU (5) – At one time this was a Top 25 team with quite a resume and had Holiday Bowl thoughts on their mind. Now they need to take care of woeful UW at home this week to ensure they get to play one more game. The Cougars have been decimated by injuries since they defeated Oregon in a game the Ducks would love to replay now. Strange things always happen in the Apple Cups especially when they are played in Pullman.
Stanford (10) – The unthinkable happened and Stanford won a game, on the road even. Is this enough to save Walt Harris? Kudos to the kids at Stanford for not giving up on the year and I hope they enjoyed their celebration. Now they come home with a chance to ruin Oregon State’s season in what should be a very ugly game. Mike Riley has built his resume on beating bad teams so I like Oregon State but the win at Washington proves that middle range teams can’t just show up if they plan on beating Stanford.
UW (9) – What a difference a competent dual threat QB can make, Washington was on the verge of the Top 25 before Isaiah Stanback’s career was ended prematurely on the turf in Washington’s crushing loss to Oregon State, now they are nursing a long losing streak and have nothing to play for but to ruin another Cougar football season with an Apple Cup win. As low as it has been for the Washington program lately the loss by 17 at home to Stanford maybe well be the nadir for this one proud program. I almost feel sorry for them, almost.