And Then There Were Two . . .

Evie
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

And Then There Were Two . . .
Saturday’s game came with the results I predicted but they ultimately were huge disappointments for the viewers of everyone who wasn’t a Kansas or Memphis fan or for folks who had those teams in the finals for their office pool (Memphis was of course the #1 seed I thought had the least chance of making it to the Final Four before the thing started). I’ve traditionally thought that UCLA’s Ben Howland was one hell of a game coach but Saturday’s result left me questioning myself. UCLA made a ton of sloppy first half mistakes that you wouldn’t expect from players like Collison, Shipp and Mbah a Boute who had played in 3 previous Final Four games. Howland burned two timeouts right before media timeouts which was horrible because the pace of the game was going way too fast to hope that Love and Westbrook could play without resting. I thought they were really lucky to be only down by 3 points at halftime and really felt the only reason the lead wasn’t 10 was because Memphis, outside of Douglas-Roberts and Rose, through up a ton of questionable shots (Sean Taggart for three!). I figured that UCLA would get the better of the halftime adjustments and take advantage of their lack of foul trouble and possibly steal the game at the end in a free throw shooting contest. When Dorsey and Taggart both picked up quick 3rd fouls I thought that UCLA had a good chance to win the game despite getting down by 7 in the first minute and a half. Instead UCLA abandoned the notion of getting the ball down low to the obviously winded Love and played him mainly on the perimeter where Love’s attempted three’s fell just short. Darren “Stock Dropping Faster Than Bear Stearns” Collison was outmatched on defense trying to guard Rose and offensively he was completely unable to penetrate the long armed defenders of Memphis. Result was a lot of missed mid-range jumpers by a team who lacks anyone who can consistently hit that shot. Westbrook was the only Bruin who could effectively score and almost all his points were on drives to the hoop where he simply outmuscled the entire Tiger defense. Give major credit to Dorsey and Taggart for going so long without picking up more fouls and tiring out Love. UCLA’s best lineup was Westbrook at the point and replacing Aboya or Keefe for Collison who was completely ineffective in this game and committed multiple frustration fouls. Since the Sweet 16 kicked off Memphis has been playing at the level of UNLV 1991 and unless Kansas can get a huge defensive effort from their guards the Tigers are going to become the first non-BCS conference team to win a championship since said Running Rebs of Jerry Tarkanian. Well on to Kansas and UNC – this game started off so badly for Carolina that I DVRed it once the game was 40 to 12 and watched the rest later after Evie went to sleep. As Billy Packer said this was really three games and Huckleberry Hound was asleep at the switch for the first segment of this game because there is no excuse whatsoever for a team as talented as Carolina is to spot any non-NBA team a 40-12 lead. Kansas coming out and playing unreal until they were so tired they started settling for threes every-time down and allowed Carolina back in to the game but the gallant Tar Heel effort was snuffed out because they too were too winded and started putting Kansas on the line where this one was sealed. Congrats to the Jayhawks but now you really have to wonder how much energy they are going to have left after playing the late night game that was played at an unbelievably quick pace. I am hoping for a good game in a tournament that outside of the Friday of the First Round has been lackluster. The Final Four has been a massive disappointment going back the last 4 years so hopefully tonight gives us a classic who’s memories will keep us fans content for the long break from college sports action we are about to undertake.

Monty to Cal

Evie
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Cal filled it's opening today by hiring Mike Montgomery who had been working at FSN and living off his Golden State Warrior money. This really ups the bar in terms of quality coaches in the Pac 10. I always thought Monty was a great game, perhaps the top guy in the country and taking his team back from a 10 point deficit in the last 2 minutes. The fans of Stanford can't be too happy with this occurence. In other news Bill Grier has turned down Oregon State. Could this mean he is off to Gonzaga or even Oregon for the 2009/2010 season (with the prediction that Ernie Kent is done in Eugene after 2008/2009)?

Final Four Week Thoughts

Cannon Beach Weekend
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

The Pac 10 is seeing some major turnover in coaches and more dominoes could conceivably fall with the Final Four being a de-facto coaches convention with guys lobbying for jobs . It appears as if Billy Grier will end up in Corvallis if he wants to – if in fact Ernie Kent is replaced after next year by Mark Few this makes for an interesting scenario. Both guys grew up just south of Eugene, both attended the U of O but didn’t play basketball their and both have a long history of working with each-other in Gonzaga. There were whispers over the years that Grier was the man behind the scenes at Gonzaga heading up the amazing recruiting success and had more to do with the Zags success than Few. We shall see but it seems there may be some type of rivalry between the two coaches brewing which would really get heated if they both ended up in the Willamette Valley. I think Ben Braun at Cal is a quality coach but it was his time to go, that’s a very good job but the Bears need to get a big name in there but got a no from Jamie Dixon. Randy Bennett would be a good hire there but his St Mary’s team has a legit Sweet 16 run in them next year. Lute Olson is back and Kevin O’Neil is out in Tucson, I think this makes sense in the short term as people didn’t like O’Neil much and the guys dome resembled an eggplant during games but Olson needs to set a date for his retirement and get out, his style isn’t really meshing with the current defensive minded Pac 10 coaches and the Cats have been living on brand name for the last five years. He might luck out and keep Buddinger and Bayless for a year but then they might leave. Either way this Arizona team will be hurting defensively next year. As for the games in San Antonio I think we have the potential for the best Final Four ever. I am pulling for a Carolina win over UCLA because I will win two bracket pools and $700+ if that happens but my head is telling me we are going to see a Memphis/Kansas final. I like the Jayhawks and Tigers because of their depth. Carolina doesn’t have the depth of KU and if Roy Williams wants to win I think he needs to slow the game down which I don’t think he will do, Kansas has the depth to out run Carolina. Memphis will win as long as they hit free throws and don’t self destruct, UCLA has the better coach and the players at UCLA have a higher basketball IQ but Memphis is loaded, playing dominant ball and have a huge size advantage. The Bruins need a huge game from Shipp and Love and need to hope that the refs keep giving them the benefit of the doubt. UCLA has been playing with fire for over a month now and it is going to catch up with them soon. In the finals I like Kansas over Memphis in a game played in the high 80’s.

Bracket Thoughts

Kahana Beach
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

First off kudos to the tournament selection committee, I thought they did about as good of job seeding and including the 34 most deserving teams as ever and a much improvement over the last two years but I do have some complaints. First off why are they having so many mid-majors play each-other in the first round, this trend seemed to have started last year and I think it is bad for the tournament and makes the first round less interesting. This is obviously designed to lessen the chance of mid-major getting to the Sweet 16 and beyond and it makes for a less interesting tournament early which is most certainly what we saw last year when the first day especially there was a lack of exciting games. Second major complaint was the placement of Tennessee. The Vols were on the edge of getting a 1 seed, were the only team to beat Memphis (and did so on the road) and still got stuck with the hardest road to the Final Four of any of the two seeds and you could make the argument that possibly on Washington State has a harder route to the Final Four of any of the top 16 seeds. I’d give the Vols a very small chance of surviving the possible gauntlet of Butler, Louisville and Carolina (in Charlotte) to get to San Antonio. I had minor quibbles with the seeding of the following teams: Oregon (too high), Miami (too high), Vanderbilt (too high), Pitt (too low) and most egregious Portland State receiving a 16 seed over American and UMBC to name two teams that got 15’s. Here is my latest projections region by region though I am sure this will change from my right before the tourney starts picks which I will post to ESPN tomorrow morning. These picks are likely too conservative while my first brackets may have been a bit too bold, looking for that perfect combination is tough but I have a pretty good track record of picking brackets and last year won my Yahoo pool by placing 7 of 8 in the Elite 8 and getting every game in the Final Four correct:
East : My general thoughts are that North Carolina has a very difficult bracket for being the #1 seed of the entire tournament but they won’t have to leave the state to get to the Final Four and if I what I heard is correct, has only lost one NCAA tournament game as the #1 seed in the East Regional. If any of the games were not played in the state of Carolina I’d give WSU or Louisville or even Tennessee a very good shot to beat the Heels.
Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16 – The Butler Bulldogs, if they get past South Alabama, have a legit shot to beat Tennessee. Though the Vols will be playing quite close to home and won’t have to face a crowd that will jump behind the underdogs Butler can dictate tempo and win a free throw contest.
First Round Winners:

UNC (1)
Indiana (9)
Notre Dame (5)
WSU (4)
St Joes (11)
Louisville (3)
Butler (7)
Tennessee (2)

Second Round Winners:

UNC (1)
WSU (4)
Louisville (3)
Tennessee (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UNC (1)
Louisville (3)

Elite 8 Winner:

UNC (1)

Midwest: On paper Kansas has the easiest route of any of the #1 seeds to the Final Four which is a bit peculiar as they are generally regarded as the lowest ranked of the #1 seeds. Kansas has a possible dangerous game versus a hot and athletic Clemson team and the well coached Badgers of Wisconsin could prove difficult to defeat in Detroit. What I don’t like about Kansas is Bill Self’s coaching record in NCAA tournament games when he isn’t the coach of Tulsa.

Best shot for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: Davidson, who gets the advantage of playing in their home state for the first two rounds, playing a fellow mid-major in the first round who has to travel 2700 miles and play at 9:30 AM Pacific and getting a shot at the weakest of the two seeds in Georgetown.

First Round Winners:

KU (1)
Kent State (9)
Clemson (5)
Vanderbilt (5)
K-State (11)
Wisconsin (3)
Davidson (10)
Georgetown (2)

Second Round Winners:

KU (1)
Clemson (5)
Wisconsin (3)
Georgetown (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

KU (1)
Wisconsin (3)

Elite Eight Winner:

KU (1)

South: This is a brutal region that typically doesn’t see the #1 seed advance to the Final Four and I believe that this year will be no different. Not only does Memphis face a very difficult Sweet 16 matchup versus either Pitt or Michigan State even if they survive that they’d play a likely game versus Texas in Houston. I don’t think Memphis can coast on athletic ability alone and the free throw issue will haunt them one of these games as it did versus Tennessee.

Best shot at a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: The Temple Owls who have played very well down the stretch could steal a few wins from Michigan State and Pitt before they battle Memphis.

First Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Miss St (8)
Mich St (5)
Pitt (4)
Marquette (6)
Stanford (3)
St Mary’s (10)
Texas (2)

Second Round Winners:

Memphis (1)
Pitt (4)
Stanford (3)
Texas (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

Pitt (4)
Texas (2)
Elite Eight Winner:

Texas (2)

West: It almost seems to easy to me for UCLA to get to the Final Four and that scares me because having watched a large amount of Bruins games this year they tend to not blow anyone out so if they get in a situation where Josh Shipp is cold and Love gets in foul trouble they could go down early busting brackets nationwide in matchup versus a Texas A & M or UConn. The Arizona Wildcats are an intriguing 10 seed who if they can get past the horrific gauntlet of playing West Virginia and Duke in Washington DC would suddenly become a threat to win the region as they’d get to play in Phoenix on the second weekend. When it comes down to it though I just can’t not take UCLA to win this region. On paper it seems like this is a bracket that will play mainly to form but I have a feeling that at the end we could see it being the bracket that is the most busted up of them all.

Best Chance for a Cinderella to the Sweet 16: If the Baylor Bears can control the tempo and keep running they can knock off Purdue and Xavier who are both quite deliberate defensively oriented teams.

First Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
Texas A & M (9)
Drake (5)
UConn (4)
Baylor (11)
Xavier (3)
West Virginia (7)
Duke (2)

Second Round Winners:

UCLA (1)
UConn (4)
Xavier (3)
Duke (2)

Sweet 16 Winners:

UCLA (1)
Xavier (3)

Elite Eight Winner:
UCLA (1)

Final Four Predictions Rundown:

I truly hate taken 3 # 1 seeds to the Final Four and this isn’t necessarily the bracket I would submit in to any bracket pool but I am having trouble spotting the obvious take down games that I was able to find last year. In addition the Big 12 has not been to adept at getting teams to the Final Fo On the left side of the bracket I see Kansas/UNC as being an epic match-up. If Bill Self can get the monkey off his back and get to this game I see him continuing his new found mojo and knocking off ex-Jayhawk Roy Williams. I am sure we will all be so sick about hearing about how hard Tyler Hansborough works by them that it will be a relief to have this year’s version of the Great White Hope vanquished. Carolina is a very solid team but tend to have trouble at times consistently making outside shots. This is what cost them last year in the Georgetown game and this should be their downfall as well this year. On the right side of the bracket I think UCLA has the defensive ability to slow down DJ Augustine enough to mitigate the pro-Longhorn crown you’d find in San Antonio.

In what should be a better Finals matchup than we have seen in a few years I see UCLA cutting down the nets for a team that will have three guys drafted in the top 15 picks in Collison, Westbrook and Love.

6 Pac 10 Teams in In

Emily and Evie at Max's
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

With the Georgia Bulldogs winning today I figured that no more than 6 Pac 10 teams would get in. Once I saw Villanova make it was obvious that ASU was not going to get a bid. I think Oregon was overseeded at 9 but at 9 they have hardly any chance at getting to the Sweet 16 while at an 11 or 12 (where they in all reality should be seeded they would have a harder first round game but would avoid the early battle with a 1 seed).