Week Seven Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

This week was a painful one for starting QB’s. Washington lost their starting QB and arguably most important player to a season ending injury. Arizona is now looking at Kris Heavner starting as Willie Tuitama and Adam Austin are both hurt and Stanford now faces life without both Trent Edwards and TC Ostrander. As has been the case this year Cal, Oregon and USC are clearly the most talented teams in the Pac 10 and though they haven’t always won pretty they are winning all the games they should and I don’t see that changing. Washington really is in a world of hurt now in their attempt to get back to a bowl game. The offense was really based around the mobility of Stanback and either Carl Bonnell or Johnny Durocher will not provide the same sense of mobility that will keep opposing offenses at bay. Washington now likely has only one automatic win on the schedule meaning they will need to beat Stanford and hope they can defeat either ASU or WSU to get to a bowl. Oregon State on the other hand may have turned their year around and if they can win at Zona this week have likely gotten them-selves in position for a bowl game. Mike Riley just yet may save his hide. Same cannot be said for Mike Stoops if he loses this week to OSU. In other games Oregon faces their biggest challenge until the USC match-up. The Ducks usually have just enough to win in Pullman and I see that continuing. Washington will likely get crushed with a new QB on the road in Berkeley while I see UCLA just not having the horses to hang with USC. In the final game Stanford travels to Tempe and ASU will see their 3 game losing streak end post haste. In fact ASU could set themselves up for a nice win streak and end this year 9-3 which could get them to the Sun Bowl.

1. USC (1) – Again playing with fire, this team continues to win ugly with a ton of young players. Thankfully the schedule has been amazingly favorable and I think the bye week comes at a perfect time giving Troy 2 weeks to prepare for what could be a bad weather game against a resurgent Beaver team.
2. Cal (2) – Offense didn’t roll as much as many may have thought in Pullman but again it wasn’t needed as Cal’s defense shut down the Cougar attack. The Bears have to be licking their chops at the thought of playing UW in Strawberry Canyon without a green QB.
3. UO (3) – Oregon rebounded in a game that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard showed. The Ducks have some major worries with regards to special teams, short yardage running and defensive depth. In typical Oregon fashion the Ducks were great in their first 20 offensive plays scoring 3 first quarter TD’s then once the plays weren’t scripted the offense sputtered. This trend needs to be reversed to beat WSU and USC.
4. ASU (7) – The Devils mounted a valiant comeback on the road at USC but just like so many before them came up a bit short. Now that the Murderer’s Row schedule of ASU is over the Devils have a legit shot to win out the rest of the year and on paper they should. If Dirk Koetter wants to continue to be the coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils I highly recommend he win every game he should on paper in reality. Playing Stanford at home should help Rudy Carpenter regain his confidence.
5. UCLA (6) – I am not sure what to think of UCLA other than that they play some very boring football. Unfortunately they have to play their second straight road game, this time versus a rested Notre Dame squad. It could get ugly early if this one turns in to a track meet.
6. WSU (5) – I expected a bit more from the Cougars offense last week against Cal. The quad still looks like they are online for a bowl game and you know they would love to ruin Oregon’s year after the close escapes that the Ducks have had in the second home field in Pullman. Not sure if it is a good thing for Oregon that they get WSU at home next as they last time these two squads met in Eugene Bellotti was handed his worst loss ever.
7. OSU (8) – Nice win on the road that not many expected and they can easily make it 2 in a row this week in Tucson which would leave the Beavs in prime territory to sneak in to a bowl game. I think the Beavs are more comfortable on the road right now due to the hostile treatment the coaches and players are receiving from the “fans” of Beaver Nation.
8. UW (4) – Not sure I have ever dropped a school four places this late in the year but the Dawgs just lost their heart, offensive MVP and team leader last week in the loss to the Beavers. Losing Stanback will make UW one dimensional on offense and with the task of having to play road games in Berkeley, Eugene and Pullman the chances for a bowl game for the formerly Purple Helmets just got bleak.
9. UA (9) – That win over Stanford deserved a ticker tape parade, oh wait, maybe not. Arizona really needs to win every game they have a shot in to keep Stoops around next year. Kris Heavner has started for Arizona in the past with not much success and the Beavs seem to have regained some heart. I think Zona loses this one at home but it will be close. Do they have another Pac 10 win on the schedule?
10. Stanford (10) – No where to go but up from here, too bad they are going to be the punching bag that gets Rudy his groove back in Tempe this weekend.

Week Six Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

This week saw no changes in my power poll standings, I may need to check my records but I don’t think that has ever happened. Now I understand it is quite obvious that from viewing games this year Cal is at this point of the season a better team at this point than USC. However I made a pledge to keep USC at #1 until they lose and the Trojans did managed to escape the suddenly tough Washington schools with two close victories. Oregon appeared to have been listening to the media a tad much and got mauled down in Berkeley by a Cal team that still has to be kicking itself for the huge crap they took on themselves in Knoxville. The two coaches with the first name Mike in the Pac 10 both had stakes all but planted in their hearts taken losses in what have to be considered at least winnable games on paper. Expect changes at both schools next year and if Dirk Koetter can’t right the ship soon (a visit to USC isn’t going to do much to help that) he could be getting a pink slip too. I won’t totally discount the idea that Walt Harris could get canned as going 0-12 no matter the talent level is not acceptable especially when the school put up over 100 million for a new stadium. Bill Doba has done enough to stay at WSU another year, they should have enough to get to 6 or 7 wins and go bowling. This week the big game on the slate is the Oregon-UCLA tilt, UCLA has traditionally dominated Oregon at Autzen Stadium (the Ducks have only beat the Bruins twice in the history of the stadium) but with UCLA facing it’s first top 20 caliber team and without Ben Olson I see the Ducks coming back strong. Cal needs to not look past WSU who have quietly (like UCLA) put up a nice season. Stanford has it’s best shot at a win this week with the Mildcats in tow and while USC looks to get healthy versus an ASU Sun Devil team that has had two weeks to think about their devastating loses to Cal and Oregon. Finally Washington can get to five wins and all but end any chance of a winning record in Beaverland with a match-up in Seattle.

1. USC (1) – Haven’t really played a complete game since Arkansas. The defense has played well but isn’t forcing turnovers. If ASU was in a healthy state mentally I’d think they could beat the Trojans however healthy mental state and ASU Sun Devils are not two phrases that should be connected at this junction of the season. USC now has the chance to get a bit healthy before the schedule stiffens up.
2. Cal (2) – Cal flat out damaged Oregon, they outplayed Oregon in all aspects of the game and now just need to avoid a letdown at WSU. The Bears have to be considered the favorite now to win the Pac 10 championship however by the time they do play USC expect the Trojans to have regained some of their mojo.
3. UO (3) – The Cal game was over after the first play. Oregon must re-establish the running game and forget about the past week to get by always pesky UCLA. I was quite disappointed with some of the player antics seen on the field versus Cal. Without a doubt the worst performance by Oregon with Gary Crowton at OC.
4. UW (4) – The Huskies proved they are for real even in a loss at USC. No longer can anyone on the home or on the road look past the team in Purple. Please note this Oregon Ducks for your match-up with the Dawgs looms in a dangerous spot of the schedule sitting right before the big game versus USC.
5. WSU (5) – The Cougars beat everyone who they should, that should get them to a bowl game, however this week they face an amazing opportunity to get themselves in the Pac 10 race if they can beat Cal at home. I don’t think WSU has the horses to do it but watch out for Mkristo Bruce to attempt to take Nate Longshore out of his rhythm with some early heat.
6. UCLA (6) – UCLA has faced only one quality opponent this year in what has been the Pac 10’s easiest schedule. UCLA can’t get in a track meet with Oregon, to win this game the Bruins can’t give up more than 21 to the Ducks and I just don’t see that happening. UCLA faces 4 very tough games in the next 4 weeks, the easy slate of the schedule is over. They will need to win at least one of them to have a shot at getting to a bowl this year.
7. ASU (7) – Well ASU is at the crossroads. They need to show something against USC, a win is not needed to salvage this year but getting the passing game back and putting in some effort is a must. ASU could still easily recover and win 7 or 8 games this year as after the USC game they face all winnable games. I just have the feeling that ASU will throw in the towel and things could get very ugly in Tempe.
8. OSU (8) – More Beaver fans than normal seem to have taken up hunting. Oregon State might as well end the Matt Moore era and play for next year. Problem for Mike Riley is that he wants to continue having a job and needs to get some wins to save himself. Basically the mood in Corvallis is really getting ugly and I think that the coaches and players will actually be happy to have a road game up in Seattle. I don’t see the Beavers keeping this one within 10.
9. Arizona (9) – Arizona has no offense which makes it very hard to win games, that their D let down and let UCLA score 27 is a sign that Mike Stoops may have lost this team. If Coach Stoops loses to Stanford I could see him getting fired after the game. The Cats will be favored the next two weeks and then get a bye before they play up in Pullman. This is truly Mike Stoops last stand, look for him to be coaching somewhere on the Oklahoma defensive staff next year.
10. Stanford (10) – The Cardinal actually showed a bit of a pulse in South Bend. If they repeat that effort they will beat the Arizona Wildcats and give the New Stanford Stadium its first win.

Week 5 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Two weeks in to the regular conference schedule and already it appears as if the Pac 10 is a three tier league. Let’s call it the Good, the Decent and the Ugly. Many folks expected ASU to beta Oregon if not at least make it a shootout. Instead in the performance of the week not only in the conference but in the nations the Ducks dominated on both sides of the ball and all things considered 10 of the 13 points scored by ASU were due to the sloppy play of the injury depleted Ducks special teams. Unfortunately for Oregon, who with a healthy defense I would likely have as a Top 5 team nationally, they will face a great running team in the Cal Bears on the road this week. The winner of this game will likely find themselves in a BCS bowl and will have chance to win the Pac 10 with a win at USC later in the year. The loser is looking at the Holiday or Sun Bowl. In other action I have to give kudos to UW for beating Arizona on the road, WSU for hanging tough with a Jarrett-less USC and UCLA for what it is worth shutting out a Stanford team that would be struggling to compete in the Big Sky right now. Right now there is a lot of pressure on 4 coaches in this league with respect to their job security for 2007 (coaches Koetter, Stoops, Riley and even at this point I’d have to say Walt Harris) and if the WSU fade down the stretch I’d add Bill Doba to that list. What this means is that 2007 will a ton of new faces and if the rumors out there are true there could be possible returns to the Pac 10 of Dennis Erickson and Rick Neuheisel.

1. USC (1) – I will keep my vow to keep USC number one until they lose but the gap between them and Cal and Oregon is very small and USC will have trouble finishing this year with zero losses. In their favor they play much better at home than on the road and they just played their last losable road game outside of Los Angeles and escaped the pesky Cougars. USC will now get to see if Washington is for real. I don’t know if Stanback will be as effective against the quick USC defense as he has been against team likes Arizona and UCLA. I figure the Dawgs may keep the game close for a half and then get run in the second half.
2. Cal (2) – The Bears crushed the Beavers in Corvallis. The question this week will be if the Bears can stop the Oregon offense. If I am Cal I want to make sure I get the ball first and try to break off an early lead with a grinding drive that eats up 5+ minutes and attacks the Oregon D-Line. If the Ducks can turn this game in to a track meet and force Cal to play from behind they will likely win as the Longshore is more prone to making mistakes than Dixon at this point. The difference in the talent level between these two teams is minute and if the Ducks were playing with a full deck off cards on defense I would say Oregon would be the favorite.
3. UO (3) – Only injuries can stop the Ducks now. The offense is about as efficient as any in the nation right now and the defense is hard hitting and was all out dominant against an ASU team that had thrown on almost everyone in the last few years. The Ducks followed Cal’s game plan and crushed the confidence of Rudy Carpenter.
4. UW (5) – The Dawgs deserve a load of credit and can earn some more kudos for coach Ty if they can stay competitive versus the Trojans in Coliseum. Two more win and the Dawgs are bowl eligible. For that accomplishment the Pac 10 coach of the year award should be Willingham’s unless Mike Bellotti can take the Ducks to an undefeated season.
5. WSU (6) – The Cougars had a legit shot to beat USC but Steve Smith decided to pick Saturday to have the game of his life. I think WSU will win enough games to go to a minor bowl but the chance for a special season slipped away last Saturday night in Pullman.
6. UCLA (7) – Still not sure how good this team is as they have played a very easy schedule which continues this week with the Mildcats coming to town. UCLA still has to be kicking themselves for losing to Washington. UCLA needs to mix in a play-action on first down just like ex Bruins coach Bob Toledo needed to mix in a salad for dinner a few times a week. Defenses are completely keying on UCLA to go conservative. Martyball doesn’t work in the Pac 10 in the 2000’s. This weeks games looks like it will be a 6-3 thriller with two offenses that are about as exciting to watch as teams running the Wing-T formation in the 1930’s.
7. ASU (4) – Somewhere in a bar in Lincoln, Nebraska you have to believe that Sam Keller is enjoying a beer and a laugh at Dirk Koetter’s expense. ASU played about as bad a game I can imagine and lucked out in that the score was as close as it was. The Ducks tore away whatever confidence Rudy Carpenter had left. ASU needs to use the bye week to recover their Mojo or a losing season is in the cards and some rich ASU alum will be buying out Dirk’s five year contract extension
8. OSU (8) – Just like Dirk Koetter Mike Riley led teams seem to be unable to beat Top 25 schools. The last win for Mike Riley versus such a team was the 1998 defeat of the running-back depleted Oregon Ducks. Lots of the Beaver fans, at least though that attended the game in the sellout-less Bean Dip were calling for the fire of Riley. All that can probably save Mike Riley is a defeat of either USC or Oregon at home later this year. The Beavs play a possible coach elimination at the end of the year game this week versus the Cougars. Expect lots of Beaver fans to miss the game this week to go hunting.
9. UA (9) – A year filled with lots of promise has all but circled the drain for the Wildcats though a win at UCLA would put them back on track for bowl contention. Hopefully Bob Stoops needs an assistant coach next year.
10. Stanford (10) – That Stanford is bad this year does not shock me. The historical badness of this year’s Stanford team is what is shocking. What better than a trip to South Bend add to Stanford’s pain and suffering. Before this year I would have considered Walt Harris to be safe no matter what happened this year, now I am not so sure. The problem is that Stanford has only been competitive in one game this year and even that was to Division 1-A doormat San Jose State who likely gained a year or two reprieve from being shutdown as a program with the victory over the Trees. I think Stanford would have trouble finishing .500 in the Big Sky this year. That is Joe Avezanno/Jerri Pettibone bad.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 4 Review

This week we learned that Arizona has a tough defense but no offense, USC has a dominating defense but some questions on offense, the Huskies are 3-0 versus the State of California on what looks like a possible return to a bowl game this year, Cal and Nate Longshore are grasping the spread offense and ASU and Dirk Koetter still can’t figure out how to win a regular season game in the state of California. It was a pretty sub-par slate of games nationally this week and ASU-Cal match-up was one of only two battles between Top 25 schools in the country this week. This week will mark the first week of Pac 10 teams playing only each-other and the two remaining undefeated squads in the Pac 10 both face road tests. I know it is early to talk BCS but the worst news for the Pac 10 was Michigan State choking away a late lead to Notre Dame and unless there is a shocker out there (most likely candidates in this order are Air Force, UCLA and Navy) the Irish will be going 10-2 this year or 11-1 if they can beat USC and thus force snagging one of the BCS at-large bids, with the loser of the Louisville-West Virginia both likely to be ranked ahead of say a 1 loss Cal (who the media has written off due to the Tennessee game) or Oregon (who will get penalized through no fault of their own as already having one loss on their slate from the Oklahoma debacle) squad the Pac 10 is likely destined for only one team in the BCS unless the Pac 10 champion is not the USC Trojans. A possible undefeated season by TCU would throw a wrench in to this as well further hurting the Pac 10’s hope. The hope is now likely on UCLA and USC to defeat the Irish to keep the Pac 10 in line for one of the now 10 BCS bids.

Power Poll

1. USC (1) – The Trojans showed that they have some vulnerability to tough hitting defensive squads and the loss of Dwayne Jarrett takes away John David Booty’s security blanket. This USC squad probably is mentally tougher than last year’s who tended to coast a bit and the defense is quite improved. However the questions begs is how USC will fare against a tough hitting team that actually has an offense. Again to the Trojans favor they get to play Oregon and Cal in the Coliseum. The schedule gods love USC, they face a relatively under the radar WSU team in the Palouse who were crushed in Auburn but have rebounded against 3 bottom barrel I-A opponents in Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. Normally this could be a huge bear trap game for USC but they luck out and get to play WSU in the year that weather shouldn’t be a problem. I don’t think the Cougars defense is good enough to keep USC under 30 points and with the improvement of the USC defense this will be more than enough for the Trojans to get the win in what actually looks like it could USC’s hardest remaining road game.
2. Cal (3) – The Bears seem to be grasping the spread offense and I think have improved as much as any team in the country since week one. Their defense is starting to make plays and Longshore has avoided the mistakes that plagued him against the Vols. The Bears will face a hostile crowd in Corvallis but have much better athletes on each side of the ball to lose to the Beavers. Cal will hope to avoid any major injuries before a likely BCS elimination game with Oregon the following week.
3. UO (2) – Had to drop the Ducks not because of anything they did but because of the way Cal handled ASU. Oregon needs to avoid the mistake of previous Oregon teams of getting too confident after a big win. I think the bye week came at a perfect time and I hope that the players have put all the media attention of the Oklahoma game behind them. The question is whether ASU will have anything in the tank after the Cal game or if they are pulling their annual mid-season el-foldo after losing to a highly ranked opponent. Oregon has some major depth issues at the linebacker but will be buoyed a bit by the return of some guys in the defensive two-deep from injury and having a close to 100% Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson. I like the Ducks chances to defeat ASU before the big game in Berkeley in two weeks which will likely define both schools seasons.
4. ASU (3) – I thought ASU would be better able to throw on Cal then they did and the disappointing performance of ASU against Cal could send this season in to a tailspin. I think the fans and many of the players were just looking for a reason to give up hope and having Oregon come in after a bye week is bad news for Koetter and company. Hopefully for them Rudy Carpenter will have licked his wounds from all the shots he took from the Cal defense. I think the gap between the Top 3 of this conference is huge this year, ASU is the best of a mediocre bottom 7.
5. UW (7) – Hats off to Ty Willingham who has the Dawgs believing again. I actually saw people wearing UW hats on TV at the Seahawks game yesterday and even saw a chap in Safeway in Portland wearing one too. I am glad that the Purple Nation is again unafraid to support their team in public. I have to give the Dawgs major kudos for coming back from 17-0 to win 29-17 against UCLA. The Dawgs don’t have quit in them and face a winnable and likely very low scoring game in Tucson this week.
6. WSU (6) – The Cougs did what they needed to do and won in Stanford in what should have been a larger defeat than the score showed due to some offensive mistakes in the first half by the Cougars. A win over USC would be a defining moment and could put the Cougs on route to another magic season but I think hey lack the athletes that the 2002 team had who was the last team outside of Cal and Texas to beat USC.
7. UCLA (5) – I have yet to UCLA play this year so it is a bit hard to judge them but they suffered a huge second down let-down versus the Huskies. The Dawgs obviously made some excellent second half adjustments. UCLA should recover nicely with Stanford on the slate this week but looking back at the end of the year UCLA will circle the collapse against UW as perhaps their biggest lost opportunity. Since UCLA faces perhaps the toughest second half schedule in the country they couldn’t afford to let this one slip them by.
8. OSU (8) – The Beavers shout out a very bad Idaho after a bye week. I am not sure this shows much other than that Beavs didn’t make any major gaffes in this game. Mike Riley needs a defining win in his second tenure in Corvallis and hasn’t had one yet. It will not come this week with Cal in tow.
9. UA (9) – The good news is that U of A played good enough defense to beat USC and even forced two turnovers from a team that was +6 in that category going in to the game, the bad news is that Arizona’s offense looks like it has the team speed of a glacier and Willi Tuitama is going to end up being hurt at the rate he is taking abuse from blitzing defenses. Stoops needs to beat UW, that is not the kind of game he can afford to lose if he wants to do anything more than rejoin his whining brother Bob on the Oklahoma staff next year.
10. Stanford (10) – This Stanford team might go down as the worst Pac 10 team since the early 1980’s Beavers. Looks like 0-12 is the likely scenario though Tree fans can hold out hope for October and November home match-ups with the Beavers and Wildcats.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week Three Review

As predicted here the Pac 10 went 4-0 versus the Big 12 though the whole nation is up in arms regarding the Oregon-Oklahoma game. I lucked out and had seats at the 50-yard line. At the game folks didn’t know that the bad calls had occurred because reviewed plays aren’t often showed on the replay screen. After the game to a T every Oklahoma fan I talked to was gracious in defeat though they all seemed a bit stunned, their fans showed a lot of class at the stadium. The reaction since then has not been so classy particularly the actions of the OU President, but I can understand the anger of Sooner Nation, had the rolls been reversed I’d feel cheated too. As a Duck fan I am happy with the win but the outcome will be forever tainted but what is being forgotten is that Oklahoma had 3 or 4 chances to complete seal the win and failed. Unfortunately, humans make mistakes and this what happened with the officials in Eugene last weekend, there was no conspiracy afoot. This shouldn’t take anything away from the heart that the Oregon players showed on the field to come back and win and they never gave up when all looked to be lost. Looking to this week the slate is fairly dull outside of the key Cal-ASU game in Berkeley. The loser of this match-up will likely be out of the Pac 10 race in September.

1. USC (1) - USC didn’t put up as many points as I thought in this game but they are clearly a better team on the defensive side of the ball in 2006 compared to 2005 and John David Booty has played mistake free football. USC may lose this season but it certainly won’t be in Tucson Arizona this week.
2. UO (2) - Well Oregon certainly can’t complain about a lack of media attention any more. This is a great time for a bye-week. Hopefully the players and coaches will be focusing on the Arizona State Sun Devils rather than the thinking about what they have accomplished so far this year.
3. ASU (3) – Nice road win in Boulder, taking Rudy Carpenter’s record as a starter to 7-1. ASU can clearly throw the ball down the field which is something Cal is having major problems stopping. If ASU can sweep the next two games they could likely find themselves a Top 10 team.
4. Cal (4) – From all indications the Bears didn’t play well against 1-AA Portland State who by the end of the game was down to their third string quarterback. Cal is among the lowest ranked teams in the nation against the pass right now and playing ASU is not going to remedy that. I look for the Sun Devils to beat the Bears in Strawberry Canyon leading what will ultimately be a disappointing year in Berkeley.
5. UCLA (5) – Suddenly a game at Husky Stadium doesn’t look like an automatic win anymore. UCLA had two weeks to remedy a down performance against Rice so I think they will find a way to win in Seattle.
6. WSU (6) – A two-point win over Baylor is nothing to brag about but Baylor is an improved team. The Cougs are close to facing a major QB controversy but getting to play Stanford should allay that issue for a week. I think Alex Brink will get back on track and won’t have to hear any boo-birds while playing on the road.
7. UW (7) – They beat a tough Fresno team on a blocked extra-point which is a nice win for the Dawgs. Willingham has got his team believing but we shall see if the fans come along for the ride. UW faces a rested UCLA team that hasn’t faced much of a challenge this year so the results of this game should show who of these two schools are for real this year.
8. OSU (8) – Mike Riley cannot ill afford any type of slip-up to Dennis Erickson’s Vandals. Not much more needs to be said here.
9. U of A (9) – The Wildcats for their sake better hope they were looking ahead to USC. The Cats kept 1-AA Stephen F. Austin in the game for way too long and Stoops passing game seems very sub-par. Hosting the Trojans will be too big of a test for Arizona who will then need to lick their wounds and recover before they face some beatable Pac 10 teams in their quest for a job saving bowl for Mike Stoops.
10. Stanford (10) – Getting blown out by Navy at home is not a good thing. Now Stanford has lost their starting WR’s and starting halfback for the season. This Stanford team faces an excellent shot at going 0-11 and being the worst Pac 10 team since Joe Avezanno’s early 80’s OSU squads.