Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 4 Review

This week we learned that Arizona has a tough defense but no offense, USC has a dominating defense but some questions on offense, the Huskies are 3-0 versus the State of California on what looks like a possible return to a bowl game this year, Cal and Nate Longshore are grasping the spread offense and ASU and Dirk Koetter still can’t figure out how to win a regular season game in the state of California. It was a pretty sub-par slate of games nationally this week and ASU-Cal match-up was one of only two battles between Top 25 schools in the country this week. This week will mark the first week of Pac 10 teams playing only each-other and the two remaining undefeated squads in the Pac 10 both face road tests. I know it is early to talk BCS but the worst news for the Pac 10 was Michigan State choking away a late lead to Notre Dame and unless there is a shocker out there (most likely candidates in this order are Air Force, UCLA and Navy) the Irish will be going 10-2 this year or 11-1 if they can beat USC and thus force snagging one of the BCS at-large bids, with the loser of the Louisville-West Virginia both likely to be ranked ahead of say a 1 loss Cal (who the media has written off due to the Tennessee game) or Oregon (who will get penalized through no fault of their own as already having one loss on their slate from the Oklahoma debacle) squad the Pac 10 is likely destined for only one team in the BCS unless the Pac 10 champion is not the USC Trojans. A possible undefeated season by TCU would throw a wrench in to this as well further hurting the Pac 10’s hope. The hope is now likely on UCLA and USC to defeat the Irish to keep the Pac 10 in line for one of the now 10 BCS bids.

Power Poll

1. USC (1) – The Trojans showed that they have some vulnerability to tough hitting defensive squads and the loss of Dwayne Jarrett takes away John David Booty’s security blanket. This USC squad probably is mentally tougher than last year’s who tended to coast a bit and the defense is quite improved. However the questions begs is how USC will fare against a tough hitting team that actually has an offense. Again to the Trojans favor they get to play Oregon and Cal in the Coliseum. The schedule gods love USC, they face a relatively under the radar WSU team in the Palouse who were crushed in Auburn but have rebounded against 3 bottom barrel I-A opponents in Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. Normally this could be a huge bear trap game for USC but they luck out and get to play WSU in the year that weather shouldn’t be a problem. I don’t think the Cougars defense is good enough to keep USC under 30 points and with the improvement of the USC defense this will be more than enough for the Trojans to get the win in what actually looks like it could USC’s hardest remaining road game.
2. Cal (3) – The Bears seem to be grasping the spread offense and I think have improved as much as any team in the country since week one. Their defense is starting to make plays and Longshore has avoided the mistakes that plagued him against the Vols. The Bears will face a hostile crowd in Corvallis but have much better athletes on each side of the ball to lose to the Beavers. Cal will hope to avoid any major injuries before a likely BCS elimination game with Oregon the following week.
3. UO (2) – Had to drop the Ducks not because of anything they did but because of the way Cal handled ASU. Oregon needs to avoid the mistake of previous Oregon teams of getting too confident after a big win. I think the bye week came at a perfect time and I hope that the players have put all the media attention of the Oklahoma game behind them. The question is whether ASU will have anything in the tank after the Cal game or if they are pulling their annual mid-season el-foldo after losing to a highly ranked opponent. Oregon has some major depth issues at the linebacker but will be buoyed a bit by the return of some guys in the defensive two-deep from injury and having a close to 100% Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson. I like the Ducks chances to defeat ASU before the big game in Berkeley in two weeks which will likely define both schools seasons.
4. ASU (3) – I thought ASU would be better able to throw on Cal then they did and the disappointing performance of ASU against Cal could send this season in to a tailspin. I think the fans and many of the players were just looking for a reason to give up hope and having Oregon come in after a bye week is bad news for Koetter and company. Hopefully for them Rudy Carpenter will have licked his wounds from all the shots he took from the Cal defense. I think the gap between the Top 3 of this conference is huge this year, ASU is the best of a mediocre bottom 7.
5. UW (7) – Hats off to Ty Willingham who has the Dawgs believing again. I actually saw people wearing UW hats on TV at the Seahawks game yesterday and even saw a chap in Safeway in Portland wearing one too. I am glad that the Purple Nation is again unafraid to support their team in public. I have to give the Dawgs major kudos for coming back from 17-0 to win 29-17 against UCLA. The Dawgs don’t have quit in them and face a winnable and likely very low scoring game in Tucson this week.
6. WSU (6) – The Cougs did what they needed to do and won in Stanford in what should have been a larger defeat than the score showed due to some offensive mistakes in the first half by the Cougars. A win over USC would be a defining moment and could put the Cougs on route to another magic season but I think hey lack the athletes that the 2002 team had who was the last team outside of Cal and Texas to beat USC.
7. UCLA (5) – I have yet to UCLA play this year so it is a bit hard to judge them but they suffered a huge second down let-down versus the Huskies. The Dawgs obviously made some excellent second half adjustments. UCLA should recover nicely with Stanford on the slate this week but looking back at the end of the year UCLA will circle the collapse against UW as perhaps their biggest lost opportunity. Since UCLA faces perhaps the toughest second half schedule in the country they couldn’t afford to let this one slip them by.
8. OSU (8) – The Beavers shout out a very bad Idaho after a bye week. I am not sure this shows much other than that Beavs didn’t make any major gaffes in this game. Mike Riley needs a defining win in his second tenure in Corvallis and hasn’t had one yet. It will not come this week with Cal in tow.
9. UA (9) – The good news is that U of A played good enough defense to beat USC and even forced two turnovers from a team that was +6 in that category going in to the game, the bad news is that Arizona’s offense looks like it has the team speed of a glacier and Willi Tuitama is going to end up being hurt at the rate he is taking abuse from blitzing defenses. Stoops needs to beat UW, that is not the kind of game he can afford to lose if he wants to do anything more than rejoin his whining brother Bob on the Oklahoma staff next year.
10. Stanford (10) – This Stanford team might go down as the worst Pac 10 team since the early 1980’s Beavers. Looks like 0-12 is the likely scenario though Tree fans can hold out hope for October and November home match-ups with the Beavers and Wildcats.