Week 5 Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Two weeks in to the regular conference schedule and already it appears as if the Pac 10 is a three tier league. Let’s call it the Good, the Decent and the Ugly. Many folks expected ASU to beta Oregon if not at least make it a shootout. Instead in the performance of the week not only in the conference but in the nations the Ducks dominated on both sides of the ball and all things considered 10 of the 13 points scored by ASU were due to the sloppy play of the injury depleted Ducks special teams. Unfortunately for Oregon, who with a healthy defense I would likely have as a Top 5 team nationally, they will face a great running team in the Cal Bears on the road this week. The winner of this game will likely find themselves in a BCS bowl and will have chance to win the Pac 10 with a win at USC later in the year. The loser is looking at the Holiday or Sun Bowl. In other action I have to give kudos to UW for beating Arizona on the road, WSU for hanging tough with a Jarrett-less USC and UCLA for what it is worth shutting out a Stanford team that would be struggling to compete in the Big Sky right now. Right now there is a lot of pressure on 4 coaches in this league with respect to their job security for 2007 (coaches Koetter, Stoops, Riley and even at this point I’d have to say Walt Harris) and if the WSU fade down the stretch I’d add Bill Doba to that list. What this means is that 2007 will a ton of new faces and if the rumors out there are true there could be possible returns to the Pac 10 of Dennis Erickson and Rick Neuheisel.

1. USC (1) – I will keep my vow to keep USC number one until they lose but the gap between them and Cal and Oregon is very small and USC will have trouble finishing this year with zero losses. In their favor they play much better at home than on the road and they just played their last losable road game outside of Los Angeles and escaped the pesky Cougars. USC will now get to see if Washington is for real. I don’t know if Stanback will be as effective against the quick USC defense as he has been against team likes Arizona and UCLA. I figure the Dawgs may keep the game close for a half and then get run in the second half.
2. Cal (2) – The Bears crushed the Beavers in Corvallis. The question this week will be if the Bears can stop the Oregon offense. If I am Cal I want to make sure I get the ball first and try to break off an early lead with a grinding drive that eats up 5+ minutes and attacks the Oregon D-Line. If the Ducks can turn this game in to a track meet and force Cal to play from behind they will likely win as the Longshore is more prone to making mistakes than Dixon at this point. The difference in the talent level between these two teams is minute and if the Ducks were playing with a full deck off cards on defense I would say Oregon would be the favorite.
3. UO (3) – Only injuries can stop the Ducks now. The offense is about as efficient as any in the nation right now and the defense is hard hitting and was all out dominant against an ASU team that had thrown on almost everyone in the last few years. The Ducks followed Cal’s game plan and crushed the confidence of Rudy Carpenter.
4. UW (5) – The Dawgs deserve a load of credit and can earn some more kudos for coach Ty if they can stay competitive versus the Trojans in Coliseum. Two more win and the Dawgs are bowl eligible. For that accomplishment the Pac 10 coach of the year award should be Willingham’s unless Mike Bellotti can take the Ducks to an undefeated season.
5. WSU (6) – The Cougars had a legit shot to beat USC but Steve Smith decided to pick Saturday to have the game of his life. I think WSU will win enough games to go to a minor bowl but the chance for a special season slipped away last Saturday night in Pullman.
6. UCLA (7) – Still not sure how good this team is as they have played a very easy schedule which continues this week with the Mildcats coming to town. UCLA still has to be kicking themselves for losing to Washington. UCLA needs to mix in a play-action on first down just like ex Bruins coach Bob Toledo needed to mix in a salad for dinner a few times a week. Defenses are completely keying on UCLA to go conservative. Martyball doesn’t work in the Pac 10 in the 2000’s. This weeks games looks like it will be a 6-3 thriller with two offenses that are about as exciting to watch as teams running the Wing-T formation in the 1930’s.
7. ASU (4) – Somewhere in a bar in Lincoln, Nebraska you have to believe that Sam Keller is enjoying a beer and a laugh at Dirk Koetter’s expense. ASU played about as bad a game I can imagine and lucked out in that the score was as close as it was. The Ducks tore away whatever confidence Rudy Carpenter had left. ASU needs to use the bye week to recover their Mojo or a losing season is in the cards and some rich ASU alum will be buying out Dirk’s five year contract extension
8. OSU (8) – Just like Dirk Koetter Mike Riley led teams seem to be unable to beat Top 25 schools. The last win for Mike Riley versus such a team was the 1998 defeat of the running-back depleted Oregon Ducks. Lots of the Beaver fans, at least though that attended the game in the sellout-less Bean Dip were calling for the fire of Riley. All that can probably save Mike Riley is a defeat of either USC or Oregon at home later this year. The Beavs play a possible coach elimination at the end of the year game this week versus the Cougars. Expect lots of Beaver fans to miss the game this week to go hunting.
9. UA (9) – A year filled with lots of promise has all but circled the drain for the Wildcats though a win at UCLA would put them back on track for bowl contention. Hopefully Bob Stoops needs an assistant coach next year.
10. Stanford (10) – That Stanford is bad this year does not shock me. The historical badness of this year’s Stanford team is what is shocking. What better than a trip to South Bend add to Stanford’s pain and suffering. Before this year I would have considered Walt Harris to be safe no matter what happened this year, now I am not so sure. The problem is that Stanford has only been competitive in one game this year and even that was to Division 1-A doormat San Jose State who likely gained a year or two reprieve from being shutdown as a program with the victory over the Trees. I think Stanford would have trouble finishing .500 in the Big Sky this year. That is Joe Avezanno/Jerri Pettibone bad.