Pac 10 Power Poll and Week 4 Review

This week we learned that Arizona has a tough defense but no offense, USC has a dominating defense but some questions on offense, the Huskies are 3-0 versus the State of California on what looks like a possible return to a bowl game this year, Cal and Nate Longshore are grasping the spread offense and ASU and Dirk Koetter still can’t figure out how to win a regular season game in the state of California. It was a pretty sub-par slate of games nationally this week and ASU-Cal match-up was one of only two battles between Top 25 schools in the country this week. This week will mark the first week of Pac 10 teams playing only each-other and the two remaining undefeated squads in the Pac 10 both face road tests. I know it is early to talk BCS but the worst news for the Pac 10 was Michigan State choking away a late lead to Notre Dame and unless there is a shocker out there (most likely candidates in this order are Air Force, UCLA and Navy) the Irish will be going 10-2 this year or 11-1 if they can beat USC and thus force snagging one of the BCS at-large bids, with the loser of the Louisville-West Virginia both likely to be ranked ahead of say a 1 loss Cal (who the media has written off due to the Tennessee game) or Oregon (who will get penalized through no fault of their own as already having one loss on their slate from the Oklahoma debacle) squad the Pac 10 is likely destined for only one team in the BCS unless the Pac 10 champion is not the USC Trojans. A possible undefeated season by TCU would throw a wrench in to this as well further hurting the Pac 10’s hope. The hope is now likely on UCLA and USC to defeat the Irish to keep the Pac 10 in line for one of the now 10 BCS bids.

Power Poll

1. USC (1) – The Trojans showed that they have some vulnerability to tough hitting defensive squads and the loss of Dwayne Jarrett takes away John David Booty’s security blanket. This USC squad probably is mentally tougher than last year’s who tended to coast a bit and the defense is quite improved. However the questions begs is how USC will fare against a tough hitting team that actually has an offense. Again to the Trojans favor they get to play Oregon and Cal in the Coliseum. The schedule gods love USC, they face a relatively under the radar WSU team in the Palouse who were crushed in Auburn but have rebounded against 3 bottom barrel I-A opponents in Idaho, Baylor and Stanford. Normally this could be a huge bear trap game for USC but they luck out and get to play WSU in the year that weather shouldn’t be a problem. I don’t think the Cougars defense is good enough to keep USC under 30 points and with the improvement of the USC defense this will be more than enough for the Trojans to get the win in what actually looks like it could USC’s hardest remaining road game.
2. Cal (3) – The Bears seem to be grasping the spread offense and I think have improved as much as any team in the country since week one. Their defense is starting to make plays and Longshore has avoided the mistakes that plagued him against the Vols. The Bears will face a hostile crowd in Corvallis but have much better athletes on each side of the ball to lose to the Beavers. Cal will hope to avoid any major injuries before a likely BCS elimination game with Oregon the following week.
3. UO (2) – Had to drop the Ducks not because of anything they did but because of the way Cal handled ASU. Oregon needs to avoid the mistake of previous Oregon teams of getting too confident after a big win. I think the bye week came at a perfect time and I hope that the players have put all the media attention of the Oklahoma game behind them. The question is whether ASU will have anything in the tank after the Cal game or if they are pulling their annual mid-season el-foldo after losing to a highly ranked opponent. Oregon has some major depth issues at the linebacker but will be buoyed a bit by the return of some guys in the defensive two-deep from injury and having a close to 100% Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson. I like the Ducks chances to defeat ASU before the big game in Berkeley in two weeks which will likely define both schools seasons.
4. ASU (3) – I thought ASU would be better able to throw on Cal then they did and the disappointing performance of ASU against Cal could send this season in to a tailspin. I think the fans and many of the players were just looking for a reason to give up hope and having Oregon come in after a bye week is bad news for Koetter and company. Hopefully for them Rudy Carpenter will have licked his wounds from all the shots he took from the Cal defense. I think the gap between the Top 3 of this conference is huge this year, ASU is the best of a mediocre bottom 7.
5. UW (7) – Hats off to Ty Willingham who has the Dawgs believing again. I actually saw people wearing UW hats on TV at the Seahawks game yesterday and even saw a chap in Safeway in Portland wearing one too. I am glad that the Purple Nation is again unafraid to support their team in public. I have to give the Dawgs major kudos for coming back from 17-0 to win 29-17 against UCLA. The Dawgs don’t have quit in them and face a winnable and likely very low scoring game in Tucson this week.
6. WSU (6) – The Cougs did what they needed to do and won in Stanford in what should have been a larger defeat than the score showed due to some offensive mistakes in the first half by the Cougars. A win over USC would be a defining moment and could put the Cougs on route to another magic season but I think hey lack the athletes that the 2002 team had who was the last team outside of Cal and Texas to beat USC.
7. UCLA (5) – I have yet to UCLA play this year so it is a bit hard to judge them but they suffered a huge second down let-down versus the Huskies. The Dawgs obviously made some excellent second half adjustments. UCLA should recover nicely with Stanford on the slate this week but looking back at the end of the year UCLA will circle the collapse against UW as perhaps their biggest lost opportunity. Since UCLA faces perhaps the toughest second half schedule in the country they couldn’t afford to let this one slip them by.
8. OSU (8) – The Beavers shout out a very bad Idaho after a bye week. I am not sure this shows much other than that Beavs didn’t make any major gaffes in this game. Mike Riley needs a defining win in his second tenure in Corvallis and hasn’t had one yet. It will not come this week with Cal in tow.
9. UA (9) – The good news is that U of A played good enough defense to beat USC and even forced two turnovers from a team that was +6 in that category going in to the game, the bad news is that Arizona’s offense looks like it has the team speed of a glacier and Willi Tuitama is going to end up being hurt at the rate he is taking abuse from blitzing defenses. Stoops needs to beat UW, that is not the kind of game he can afford to lose if he wants to do anything more than rejoin his whining brother Bob on the Oklahoma staff next year.
10. Stanford (10) – This Stanford team might go down as the worst Pac 10 team since the early 1980’s Beavers. Looks like 0-12 is the likely scenario though Tree fans can hold out hope for October and November home match-ups with the Beavers and Wildcats.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week Three Review

As predicted here the Pac 10 went 4-0 versus the Big 12 though the whole nation is up in arms regarding the Oregon-Oklahoma game. I lucked out and had seats at the 50-yard line. At the game folks didn’t know that the bad calls had occurred because reviewed plays aren’t often showed on the replay screen. After the game to a T every Oklahoma fan I talked to was gracious in defeat though they all seemed a bit stunned, their fans showed a lot of class at the stadium. The reaction since then has not been so classy particularly the actions of the OU President, but I can understand the anger of Sooner Nation, had the rolls been reversed I’d feel cheated too. As a Duck fan I am happy with the win but the outcome will be forever tainted but what is being forgotten is that Oklahoma had 3 or 4 chances to complete seal the win and failed. Unfortunately, humans make mistakes and this what happened with the officials in Eugene last weekend, there was no conspiracy afoot. This shouldn’t take anything away from the heart that the Oregon players showed on the field to come back and win and they never gave up when all looked to be lost. Looking to this week the slate is fairly dull outside of the key Cal-ASU game in Berkeley. The loser of this match-up will likely be out of the Pac 10 race in September.

1. USC (1) - USC didn’t put up as many points as I thought in this game but they are clearly a better team on the defensive side of the ball in 2006 compared to 2005 and John David Booty has played mistake free football. USC may lose this season but it certainly won’t be in Tucson Arizona this week.
2. UO (2) - Well Oregon certainly can’t complain about a lack of media attention any more. This is a great time for a bye-week. Hopefully the players and coaches will be focusing on the Arizona State Sun Devils rather than the thinking about what they have accomplished so far this year.
3. ASU (3) – Nice road win in Boulder, taking Rudy Carpenter’s record as a starter to 7-1. ASU can clearly throw the ball down the field which is something Cal is having major problems stopping. If ASU can sweep the next two games they could likely find themselves a Top 10 team.
4. Cal (4) – From all indications the Bears didn’t play well against 1-AA Portland State who by the end of the game was down to their third string quarterback. Cal is among the lowest ranked teams in the nation against the pass right now and playing ASU is not going to remedy that. I look for the Sun Devils to beat the Bears in Strawberry Canyon leading what will ultimately be a disappointing year in Berkeley.
5. UCLA (5) – Suddenly a game at Husky Stadium doesn’t look like an automatic win anymore. UCLA had two weeks to remedy a down performance against Rice so I think they will find a way to win in Seattle.
6. WSU (6) – A two-point win over Baylor is nothing to brag about but Baylor is an improved team. The Cougs are close to facing a major QB controversy but getting to play Stanford should allay that issue for a week. I think Alex Brink will get back on track and won’t have to hear any boo-birds while playing on the road.
7. UW (7) – They beat a tough Fresno team on a blocked extra-point which is a nice win for the Dawgs. Willingham has got his team believing but we shall see if the fans come along for the ride. UW faces a rested UCLA team that hasn’t faced much of a challenge this year so the results of this game should show who of these two schools are for real this year.
8. OSU (8) – Mike Riley cannot ill afford any type of slip-up to Dennis Erickson’s Vandals. Not much more needs to be said here.
9. U of A (9) – The Wildcats for their sake better hope they were looking ahead to USC. The Cats kept 1-AA Stephen F. Austin in the game for way too long and Stoops passing game seems very sub-par. Hosting the Trojans will be too big of a test for Arizona who will then need to lick their wounds and recover before they face some beatable Pac 10 teams in their quest for a job saving bowl for Mike Stoops.
10. Stanford (10) – Getting blown out by Navy at home is not a good thing. Now Stanford has lost their starting WR’s and starting halfback for the season. This Stanford team faces an excellent shot at going 0-11 and being the worst Pac 10 team since Joe Avezanno’s early 80’s OSU squads.

Pac 10 Power Poll & Week Two Review

Another week that saw some more Pac 10 teams getting roughed up on national TV providing more cannon fodder for the dreaded East Coast Media Bias argument. Well here are the positives, USC moves up to #2 in the country without playing a game, ensuring that provided they win out this year they will be playing the BCS championship in all likelihood provided the schedule gods don’t do them in. Winning all those games will be easier said than done especially with Notre Dame looking to actually be the good team many thought they would be based on the thrashing of Penn State. More positives were the Huskies showing a pulse by playing tough in Norman despite the loss as well as Cal and Oregon beating quality opponents. On the downside of-course were the performances of Arizona, Oregon State and Stanford who were either trashed on national TV (we are looking at you Beavers and Wildcats) or pulling a traditional el-foldo to your local rival that makes their season every few years by knocking you off in a game where you look down on them (Stanford this is you, the third time in the past 6 years they have lost to SJSU and let us not forget the whole UC-Davis fiasco of last year). This week the Pac 10 has a great opportunity to show the world that the Big 12 is in fact the little twelve. I predict that Oregon, USC, ASU and WSU will dispatch Oklahoma, Nebraska, CU and Baylor which should push the Pac 10 ahead of the Big 12 in terms of non-conference SOS (this likely won’t be the case when the year is over because of the 9 game Pac 10 schedule and the two additional teams the Big 12 has).

The poll:

1. USC (1) – Great week for USC, Texas gets dispatched by Ohio State and the Trojans roll in to the 2 spot in the coaches poll while having a week off to prepare for the test of Nebraska who rolled up on Nicholls State. Nebraska is improving in the west coast offense but to win in the Coliseum is too much too ask for a young team going through such a sea-change in offensive systems.
2. UO (2) - Great teams win tough games on the road that they are supposed to win. The Ducks avoided the WAC flu that took down Oregon State and Stanford and won a tough, hard-hitting game played in the hornets nest called Fresno. Kudos to Mike Bellotti and his special teams coach for having the stones to call that fake field goal option that sealed the win. Oregon lost Jackie Bates for likely the regular season to a broken leg. I don’t think his loss will hurt much against run-oriented Oklahoma but the loss will sting against the Pac 10 foes. Oregon could be having a very special season but the stakes and difficulty goes up this week. A healthy Jonathan Stewart is a must.
3. ASU (6) - Our big gainer this week, they played very well offensively against Nevada, certainly the best game any of the 4 teams playing WAC foes. Colorado is reeling right now and ASU should be able to give them a death blow as to having any chances at pulling out a winning season in Dan Hawkins first year. Hawkins by the way was the chap who replaced Dirk Koetter at Boise State. ASU faces Cal in two weeks which in a sense will likely be a Rose Bowl elimination game.
4. Cal (4) – Though their defense struggled early in the end Cal pummeled a quality Big 10 opponent in a national televised game. With a virtual bye week this week (well as long as Cal doesn’t pull a New Mexico) with Portland State in town the Bears have two weeks to prepare for the aerial attack of Arizona State which should prove to be a very entertaining match-up of former Oregon offensive coordinators turned Pac 10 head coaches.
5. UCLA (3) – Didn’t see a lick of this game but based on the score I expected more from UCLA in facing a team coming off a 1-10 season in Rice. In UCLA’s defense Rice runs a form of the triple-option that UCLA has likely not faced in many years and it makes a hard transition to prepare in one week. They get a bye week to prepare for the improved Huskies in Seattle. To compete for the Pac 10 title they can’t afford losses to teams like Washington.
6. WSU (8) – Rebounded from their licking by Auburn to whack Dennis Erickson’s Vandals who had played quite well the week before in their visit to East Lansing. The Cougars obviously can put up points and yards via the air, they need to be careful to not look past Baylor who has improved. A win here keeps the possibility for a bowl alive for the Cougars who should be able to win 4 Pac 10 games.
7. UW (10) – Washington showed a great deal of character by hanging with Oklahoma for more than a half. In the end the Huskies just don’t have the guys on the lines to beat a team like Oklahoma. They face an interesting match-up with Fresno State this week. Fresno will look to run the ball with Dwayne Wright and they did with some success against Oregon. In the end I think Fresno will win this game but the Huskies are certainly improved from last year.
8. OSU (5) - After getting spotted a 14-0 lead the Beavs basically repeated their performance of their last trip to Boise and after a dumb interception led to a Bronco touchdown the Beavs basically gave up. In a twist of irong Dennis Erickson will be coming to town. Due to the fact that a vast majority of Beaver fans likely want Dennis Erickson to be coaching the Beavers next year you wonder if some are secretly hoping for a loss by the Beavs to that other team from the Potato State. This looks like a very long year in Corvallis and the Matt Moore should be ending soon.
9. UA (7) – Hey Herbstreit nice call on Tuitama being a Top 5 QB. Arizona got run in Baton Rogue in a game that I thought they should be able to keep with in 14 points. Good thing for Stoops that he pulled out that win against BYU, with Stephen F. Austin coming to town the Cats have a virtual bye week before they take on USC in two weeks. I think Stoops seat is getting a bit warm.
10. Stanford (10) – Again Stanford overlooked a local rival that can make their year by beating them. I give credit to Stanford for continuing to play San Jose State but I believe this is the third time they have lost to San Jose State since 1999. Preparing for Navy will be a tough game for the Trees. Due to the fact that they must play at Notre Dame this year the Navy game is a must win if they hope to have any chance at sniffing a bowl.

Pac 10 Power Poll and a review of Week One

In the eyes of the media the Pac 10’s performance was a failure and this can mainly be blamed on the Cal Bears and their ineffective QB play and defensive letdown. Though there is no shame in losing in Neyland Stadium the Bears look like they have fallen in to the trap where they will have problems beating teams that can keep Lynch and Forsett from running at will. As for the other two match-ups in the PAC10/SEC 3-fer WSU was not surprisingly outclassed by Auburn though I thought the Cougars would do a better job defensively against Auburn. USC showed that they still can dominate teams and the drop-off that some predicted may not occur there. Looking forward to this week there are some nice non-conference games out there that should pique interest but do to some of the match-ups the Pac 10 could take some more national hits. In addition there are 5 match-ups versus WAC teams looking to make some noise out west. Here is this week’s power poll:

1. USC (1) Playing at Arkansas is no easy task they play very tough at home as many an SEC foe can attest too. However USC continued to roll and answered the critics. They know have two weeks to prepare for Nebraska though having a bye week so early in the season is not helpful for the Trojans. I think Nebraska is a tough match-up but the two weeks off and home cooking should led USC to a solid win in two weeks. Barring some major injuries and suspensions USC will be out top squad next week as they can’t lose to that team called BYE.
2. UO (4) The Oregon Ducks answered all the questions that the media have of them and more after pounding Stanford at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks played with confidence ran the ball effectively and didn’t make too many mistakes for the first game of the season. They will face a tougher test on the ground from Fresno State as well as playing in a very hostile environment with WAC refs so those factors should make this game close. In the Oregon seems to have just enough to beat Fresno every year and I see that continuing as long as the Ducks avoid interceptions. A win versus the Bulldogs could likely vault Oregon close to 10^th in the nation by the time they play a shaky Oklahoma team in Autzen Stadium.
3. UCLA (5) Utah was expected to give UCLA a hard test but Ben Olson performed well and the Bruins cruised to a victory. With an easy match-up at home this week versus Rice I expect UCLA to quietly move up the national polls and will likely still be undefeated when they play Oregon on October 21^st due to getting to open the Pac 10 with games versus Washington, Stanford and Arizona (who by the way beat UCLA last year knocking the Bruins out of any chance at BCS bowl). The Ducks could either be reeling at this point or could be ranked in the Top 5 in the country.
4. Cal (2) There is no shame in losing to Tennessee but I think the Bears may have been listening too much to their press clippings. They need to get past last week’s performance and focus on getting consistent QB play as teams will be daring Cal to throw the ball down the field until the two-headed Longshore-Ayoob monster can get their footing.
5. OSU (6) They get to jump ASU because they played better against their Big-Sky opponent than ASU did. They face a tough test on Thursday night in Boise against an experienced 5^th year senior QB in Hermiston’s own Jared Zabransky. The Beavs need a better showing than the last time they ventured on the blue turf.
6. ASU (3) A big drop for ASU even after a win because they frankly struggled with Northern Arizona and I feel there is lingering team chemistry issues which may bubble to the surface. If ASU plays the same way against Nevada as they did against NAU they will likely lose. Koetter needs to get things on track before league play starts. He will face a likely very angry and possibly 0-2 Colorado Buffalo squad in two weeks in Boulder.
7. Arizona (8) They won an ugly game versus BYU but the important thing is they won it and this means that they likely will only need 4 Pac 10 wins to go to a bowl if they can hold off Stephen F. Austin. I expect U of A to get run down in Baton Rogue but their defense may keep the score closer than WSU and Cal did against their SEC foes.
8. WSU (7) I didn’t get a chance to see many highlights of this game but the Cougars were clearly outclassed by Auburn. To keep bowl hopes alive WSU needs to beat Idaho and Baylor, though both are perennial bad teams both teams played tough ball in their openers against good competition so the Cougars better not be overconfident or they could force them selves in to having to win 5 Pac 10 games to go to a bowl.
9. Stanford (9) The Cardinals looked outclassed in every aspect of the game against a much faster Oregon team. Stanford as always is a much better team on grass where their speed issues are less exposed. They can’t look past San Jose State who is a pesky squad who has knocked off the Cardinal in the past.
10. UW (10) Well they were tested again by San Jose State. Next the Huskies will get to venture in to the not so friendly confines of Norman Oklahoma before facing what could be a 2-0 Fresno State team in the Top 25. Things don’t look good on the schedule for Washington this year. I heard talk out of Montlake that this could be a 6 or 7 win team but I never bought in to such talk.

Pre-season Power Poll

Pac 10 Team Capsules and Power Poll - The first year of round robin conference play should be interesting and it will likely mean the end of any Pac 10 school getting in to the BCS championship game with one loss (which by the way has never happened anyhow though Oregon, UW and USC have come close only to be denied by computers). Not only is the Pac 10 hurt by having only 10 teams meaning fewer OOC games which tend to be won by major conferences who schedule down (please see the SEC and Big 12 for examples) but the addition of the 9^th conference game will also mean 5 more losses for the league while the other major conferences are feeding up on extra games with 1-AA schools, the Sun Belt and MAC. The Pac 10 champ will have truly earned their championship on the field.

Team Capsules for 2006

Arizona Wildcats (3 wins 4 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Stoops has cleansed himself of the Mackovic era and at least on paper has recruited well in particular on the defensive side of the ball. The team plays with a lot of toughness in what is considered often by the national media to be a “soft” or “finesse” league, whether that assumption is fair or not. What I don’t like: Mike Stoops’ sideline antics, we get it, he is hard nosed but it gets to the point of being embarrassing, how long will it be until the players tune him out? Bottom line: Willy Tuitama gained some experience late last year and that will help him this season but true sophomore QB’s rarely lead their schools to successful Pac 10 seasons. Arizona could have enough to make it to a bowl game if they can recover from their early season whipping in Baton Rouge, a step back to 4-8 or worse and they just may decide to go another direction coaching wise. Key game: October 21^st in Tucson versus Oregon State. A win here and Arizona could be bowl eligible for the first time since 1999.

Arizona State Sun Devils (7 wins 0 losses 5 tossups) What I like: Great offensive system which really seemed to gel around Rudy Carpenter after Sam Keller went down though both QB’s were among the top rated in the nation. What I don’t like: Dirk Koetter has not handled the Keller/Carpenter quarterback controversy well, ASU can’t afford an injury to Carpenter or the season could go down in flames. He may be the single most important player to his team in the entire conference with Sam Keller off to Nebraska. Bottom line: ASU in the last 30 years has typically lacked the heart and character to take the step up to consistently compete for Pac 10 titles (exception Jake Plummer) and has managed to underachieve despite all the built in advantages they have due to location (nice weather & facilities, beautiful coeds, major metropolitan area, proximity to Texas and California for recruiting). I expect another decent but in the end unfulfilling season for Koetter but with his contract being extended by his new AD he is safe job security wise. Key game: September 30^th in Tempe versus Oregon. Oregon could be a Top 10 team at this point if they can beat Fresno State and Oklahoma and Arizona State faces a likely loss to Cal the week before, whoever loses this game could be knocked out of the Rose Bowl race unless they can win road games at USC or Cal.

Cal Bears (7 wins 0 loses 5 tossups) What I like: Great running game and depth with Marshuan Lynch and Justin Forsett. The enthusiasm that Jeff Tedford has brought to what had been a morbid program since Bruce Snyder had left. They seem to be the only program in the Pac 10 that has been able to consistently stay in games with USC during the Pete Carroll era. What I don’t like Not much other than questions at quarterback, had Aaron Rodgers stayed for his senior season Cal may have been playing Texas instead of USC in the Rose Bowl last year. Tim Mixon may have been the Pac 10’s top returning cornerback and was a special teams stalwart, losing him to an ACL tear for the season is a blow. Bottom line: The Bears are the most likely school to beat USC in LA and if that occurs, the Pac 10 title could be Cal’s for the first time since the 1950’s. Key game: November 18^th in Los Angeles versus USC. This game could be for the Pac 10 title and could pin USC with their first Pac 10 home loss since 2001. Probably fair to say that at least on paper this could be the most significant game played by the California Bears in the modern era if both schools are still at the top of the Pac 10 standings in mid-November.

Oregon Ducks ( 4 Wins, 1 loss, 7 tossups) What I like: A second year in the spread should see Oregon’s offense excel to new heights. There seems to have been an injection of enthusiasm and excitement in Mike Bellotti’s decision to bring in Gary Crowton after Andy Ludwig left for Utah. What I don’t like: Having to replace Haloti Ngata, Anthony Trucks and the starting CB’s from the Pac 10’s top rated defense (quite a rarity in Eugene for that to happen) Bottom line: Oregon arguably has the nation’s toughest schedule and a stumble at Fresno State could start a tailspin that leads to a disappointing around .500 year for Oregon. They may well be a better team than last years 10-2 squad ( Oregon’s best win in 2005 was over California) but the record may not show it. Oregon is primed for a national championship run in 2007 and a nice 9 or 10 win season in 2006 should propel them high enough in the initial 2007 polls for that to become a possibility on paper. Key game: September 16^th in Eugene versus Oklahoma. Oregon needs to show the nation that they can handle a tough, physical nationally recognized power. A win here sets up Oregon nicely for the Pac 10 season as well as keeps them on the national radar for 2007 when they should have their best chance at a national run since Joey Harrington and company’s 2^nd place national finish in 2001 after a Fiesta Bowl victory over Colorado.

Oregon State Beavers ( 3 wins 1 loss 9 tossups) What I like: The Beavers return their entire offensive line and have a senior quarterback, All-American candidate Tight-end in Joe Newton, along with a kind home schedule in conference play. What I don’t like: Inexperience at wide-out and the lack of future NFL quality players on the roster. Player discipline has been an issue for the last few seasons Bottom line: The Beavers get Oregon, Cal and USC all at home in what has become one of the tougher places to play on the west coast. While the Beavers will not likely compete for a Pac 10 title they will play a great role in deciding who does. I don’t think the Beavers have a 2000 type run in them because I think they lack the athletes at DE and WR that the 2000 squad had. They could certainly end up with a nice 8-9 win season, which in Corvallis, is quite the accomplishment and should take the heat off of Riley who has faced a great deal of player conduct issues in the past few seasons. When it comes down to it this may be the hardest team of 2006 to predict how they will finish. Oregon State could finish anywhere between 3^rd and 8^th in the conference and it would not surprise me. Key game: Friday November 24^th in Corvallis versus Oregon. If Oregon State has a losing record going in to the Civil War he will be facing some major heat from the fan base and media for not living up to glory that the 2000 season brought to Oregon State fans under Dennis Erickson. That great season and a new stadium upgrade have led to higher expectations in Corvallis. Oregon State has not lost a home game to Oregon since 1996 and a loss here could really tighten the noose around Riley’s neck.

Stanford Cardinal (1 win 6 loses 5 tossups) What I like: The Trees have a sparkling new stadium which should help transform Palo Alto Saturdays in to a rollicking environment albeit with a wine and cheese crowd with the elimination of the track and 40,000 fewer seats. Stanford could easily go from having the worst football game day environment in the conference to one of the best in just one season due the stadium transformation. In addition Stanford played very tough on the road last year losing only at USC. What I don’t like: Stanford was pretty bi-polar last year, playing tough games with USC and Notre Dame and beating Arizona State but doing the unthinkable and losing to Cal State Davis which ultimately cost them the chance to play in a bowl game. The loss of standout LB Michael Okwo in fall training camp will cause Stanford to play this year without its best returning defender on what was already a very green unit. Bottom line: A step backward may led to two steps forward, too much was lost on the defensive side of the ball from 2005 to have much of a shot for a winning campaign so Harris will have to play a lot young players. The new stadium should certainly help in giving Stanford a home field advantage for the first ever. Key game: Saturday September 23^rd in Palo Alto versus Washington State. In a very winnable home game Stanford will first showcase its new stadium in a conference game. A winning season is unlikely but a opening home win will be a nice showcase for Walt Harris as he tries to build his program down on The Farm.

UCLA Bruins (6 wins 3 loses 3 tossups) What I like: Karl Dorrell had a very nice season in 2005 and made some in-roads in bridging some of the game between UCLA and USC in recruiting (not by bringing USC down but by bringing UCLA up the rankings) What I don’t like: Not many QB’s have been very successful after being away from the game for a mission like Ben Olson took no matter how much natural talent they have, too much talent was lost on defense and losing Maurice Jones-Drew to the NFL was an unexpected shock that stings UCLA. Bottom line: UCLA will regress back to the 7-8 win plateau that has been the norm most of the last decade, they have some excellent athletes all over the field but will likely not win as many close games with the departure of last year’s senior QB Drew Olson being Captain Comeback in leading UCLA to a handful of comeback wins. Key game: October 21^st in South Bend versus Notre Dame. UCLA has been off the national radar since 1998 and having becoming an absolute second banana in Los Angeles to the Trojans has put UCLA in the odd position of being a relatively unknown program in a huge media market that has increasingly become looked at nationally as irrelevant. What better way to regain national traction by knocking off a highly ranked (and defensively shaky) Notre Dame team with a senior QB on a Heisman run.

USC Trojans (8 wins 0 losses 4 tossups) What I like: The improvement that will be seen on USC’s defense and the continued stellar recruiting classes of Pete Carroll should keep them in contention for the national and league title for the foreseeable future. Getting to face their likely two toughest Pac 10 tests at Memorial Coliseum in Oregon and Cal. What I don’t like: It is almost impossible to sustain the hits they have taking in losing players to the NFL draft and injuries over the last few years. Depending on true freshman tailbacks to replace Reggie Bush and Lendale White will likely lead to a less balanced offense. Bottom line: Carroll has recruited amazingly well but all schools are pulled back to earth and I expect USC to drop at least one league game in 2006. Key game: December 3rd versus Notre a rematch of last year's classic could be a matchup of #1 versus #2 if everything falls in place

Washington Huskies (1 win 7 losses 4 tossups) What I like: Ty Willingham is a class act and I heard he is good at karaoke! Tailgating on those boats sure is fine and the view of the water and Mt Rainer sure are pretty. The Huskies have recruited fairly well in state the last few years What I don’t like: A lot to not like especially on offense with injuries, losses to graduation and low-talent level QB’s likely leading to Washington being in the position to have their defense needing to step up big for them to have any chance of success in a offensive favored conference. Washington was really once one of the nation’s best programs and their stadium inspired fear. Now Husky Stadium is a shell of itself and people realize that the while the view of the surrounding area sure is nice the view of the field is horrible because of the track. They Huskies had to hire a by-the-books guy like Willingham after all the shenanigans of the Rick Neuheisel era but whether the Tyee club has patience for his rebuilding program will be another story. If Washington can eek out 6 wins then Ty Willingham deserves Pac 10 coach of the year. Losing James Hasty to academics will prove painful. Key game: November 18^th in Pullman versus Washington State. In what will likely be a painful season in Seattle the Huskies could put a severe hurt to Bill Doba’s job security and make a statement that they are again the state’s best program to recruits with a win in the Apple Cup. Interestingly enough this is the only rivalry game that will be played on the traditional Rivalry Week Saturday in the conference. All 4 other in-state rivalry games have been moved back to later in the season with the addition of the 12^th game.

Washington State Cougars (2 wins 4 losses 6 tossups) What I like: There are some eerie similarities between the 1996 and 2005 WSU seasons. When everyone has counted out WSU they tend to have a great season as happened in 1997 and 2001. Lots of close loses, young talent & low expectations could get the Cougars in to the top half of the conference if they can win all the games they should win and steal a few they shouldn’t. Jason Hill may end up an All-American at WR if Ben Brink can get him the ball enough. What I don’t like: Bill Doba’s teams have had trouble winning close games, the question is whether they are almost there as a team primed for a breakout season or whether they were over-achieving to make those games close. A big question is whether the new running backs from the JUCO level can step in and replace Jerome Harrison who really helped WSU in having a balanced offensive attack last season Bottom line: In a best case scenario WSU can go out and win 8 games which is really what they should have won last year if they could have closed out games, the only game they really didn’t have a good chance of winning in 2005 was their game versus USC. The Cougars should beat a couple of good teams at home this year and have an excellent shot at going to a minor bowl if they can cut down on mistakes on offense. Key game: October 21^st versus Oregon. The Cougars can’t continue to fumble away winnable games to the Ducks if they hope to go back to the form they showed in 2001 to 2003. Oregon could either be flying or reeling at this point at the Cougars need to pounce on the Ducks and not let another close loss occur on the Palouse to the Ducks.

Pre-season Pac 10 Power Poll

1. USC – Until someone can beat them in conference I really can’t take them off the top of this list. It took the huge stones of Vince Young, arrogant and cockiness on field play by USC players and some questionable coaching by Pete Carroll to keep USC from being a Three-peat national champion.
2. California – The most likely team to knock USC out of its perch atop the Pac 10. If they can take car of business in Tennessee they well could be primed for a national run and will have the out of conference resume to prove it. The big question is whether they have the QB play to win close conference games down the stretch.
3. Arizona State – It was hard for me to decide between Oregon and Arizona State. As of right now I think they have fewer question marks than the Ducks do but the team is a Rudy Carpenter injury away from disaster.
4. Oregon – The Ducks have a brutal schedule. Though they may end up being a more complete team than the 2005 version it will be tough to match the record. They are one year away from the possibility of putting together a 2001 like run to the Pac 10 title together.
5. UCLA Bruins – If Ben Olson shakes off the rust and UCLA can find a playmaker at running back to step in for Maurice Drew they should be able to get back to a bowl game. The defense is green and last year wasn’t really that great anyhow. UCLA gutted out a lot of close wins last year and maybe lady luck will be against them in 2006.
6. Oregon State – I have to place OSU in the middle of the pack. They could finish anywhere between 3^rd and 8^th in this league, I like the running game and senior leadership but I question the overall talent level.
7. WSU – They have the playmakers at WR to have a huge year offensively but Ben Brink needs to cut his mistakes down for the Cougars to win the close games they lost last year.
8. Arizona – This is the year the Mike Stoops needs to put it all together. They are a chic pick around the country to have a breakout year, I don’t see it.
9. Stanford – Having a senior QB is a traditionally a harbinger for winning in this conference and only Oregon State, Washington and Stanford will be starting them as the season starts. However, I just see too many holes on this team defensively for them to have a winning season and I doubt they will be able to steal 3 road wins again like they did in 2005.
10. Washington – I don’t see a lot of upside here for Washington. They could win as few as one game this year but more likely I see a 3 or 4 win season if they can play tough at home. The loss of James Hasty to academics was quite a blow for a school that hasn’t had a 1000 yard rusher since 1997.