Oregon/ASU Review

Fresh Hop Fest at Oaks Park.
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

A bit late yes but just wanted to write a bit about the Oregon/ASU game. I was lucky enough to be able to go to the game which was the first one I have attended since Nevada. The Sun Devils came to play and are a team who plays much like a classic Dennis Erickson squad. Hard hitting aggressive defense and an offense that likes to get vertical. In addition like many Dennis Erickson teams of the past the Sun Devils sometimes play out of control and this leads to stupid penalties (see Burfict, Vontaze). For the second time in two weeks Oregon fans had a throw up in your mouth moment when Darron Thomas grabbed his knee and exited the game. In came Bryan Bennett for his first meaningful playing time and to the delight of all Duck fans Bennett led Oregon to back to back td drives and put the game away. I am not sure we learned much about Bennett’s ability to throw the ball but I think it is pretty clear that is more of a running threat than Darron Thomas is. I don’t think ASU had any idea he was so quick and Bennett made them pay when they didn’t spy him. Oregon put up over 300 yards on the ground which was a pretty impressive performance against what was considered the Pac 12’s top defense. Had it not been for a pointless clipping penalty by Lavisier Tuinei, Kenjon Barner would have put up 200 yards rushing which would have meant four straight games an Oregon running back put up that figure or better. Kenjon proved that he can put up a 30 carry game, run between the tackles and still showed the flashes of his breakaway speed. We had a Cliff Harris spotting as well who might have made the key play of the game with his pick and long return of a Brock (6 foot 8!) Osweiler. Helmet stickers to Kenjon Barner and Mark Asper. Oregon by the way has now won 15 consecutive conference games it would take another 13 to break USC’s remarkable run in the previous decade. This week Oregon is off to Boulder in a game I expect Oregon to give players like Bryan Bennett, Tra Carson and Rashuan Vaughn some meaningful playing time. The game might not be as large a blowout as one may expect (giving 34 points on the road to a conference foe is pretty absurd) but Oregon should easily win.

Oregon vs Cal Review

Oregon vs Nevada
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Oregon’s victory over Cal last Thursday was in many ways a typical Oregon game versus a Pac 12 opponent. Cal’s defense came out tough early and their offense was able to put some points on the board and make it a competitive game at half time only to see Oregon run away with things in the second half. For Oregon LaMichael James was dominant the entire game however the offense only really started to roll when Darron Thomas was able to make downfield connections with Josh Huff and DeAnthony Thomas in the passing game. Once the receivers became a threat Cal couldn’t key on James and this led to Oregon rolling on 3 straight scoring drives in the third quarter which put the game away. Keenan Allen for Cal is showing himself to a complete beast at wideout but his brother (thanks for reminding us Jesse . . .) Zach Maynard doesn’t appear to have the needed accuracy to be a true dual threat qb capable of beating at team at Oregon’s level. Cal has the looks of team that will be fighting to get to six wins and if they are not bowl eligible for the second consecutive year you have to wonder if some pressure will start to mount on Tedford. I don’t see him getting fired this year but a 5-7 in 2011 followed up by another 5-7 in 2012 could do him in. I think Cal is lucky to have him as coach as they were a tire fire before he got there but it may be time for a change of scenery for both of them. With a new stadium finally in place for 2012 and a nice recruiting base I see Cal as being a pretty plum job. Well back to the game, in particular the play that made many Oregon fan’s throw up in their mouths: the LaMichael James elbow injury. I seriously felt like I was reliving the 1988 Bill Musgrave injury, the 1998 Reuben Droughns injury and the 2007 Dennis Dixon injury all in one setting. Elbows are not made to do that. To find out later that LMJ (do we even know if he is human?) popped his dislocated elbow back in by himself on the field was pretty amazing. James was on pace to break the Oregon rushing record for the second straight game and had played himself right back in to the Heisman race. No running back at the FBS level has put up three straight two hundred yard games since Matt Forte in 2007 for Tulane. Talk is now that LMJ could actually play against ASU. If he does and play effectively it will have to conjure up memories Emmitt Smith versus the Eagles on MNF those many years back . . . helmet stickers to LaMichael James and DeAnthony Thomas for Oregon and Keenan Allen for Cal. Special kudos to Colt Lyerla on his great downfield block on Kenjon Barner’s scoring running. It was a thing of beauty. Back to Autzen next week for ASU and I will be there in person, missed the Cal and Mizzou State games so excited to see Oregon in person again.

Cal/Oregon Preview

Sunset Sail
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Cal was the only team that was able to slow down the Oregon offense during the 2010 regular season so you’d think that they would have a good chance of repeating that formula in 2011. You could think that but you’d be wrong. I like Oregon to roll Cal on Thursday night in a manner that will be much more like the 2009 game at Autzen than the 2010 game in Berkeley. Cal has a lot of really nice young talent on the defensive side but this is also a unit that saw five of its players from 2010 drafted to the NFL or getting camp invites including first round pick Cameron Jordan who was a key piece in stalling out the Oregon offense in 2010. The biggest factor in the 2010 game being close in my opinion was that Oregon was not healthy at running back at the time that game was played in Berkeley and Cal did an amazing job of making tackles in space. It is very rare for Oregon to go through an entire game without breaking a long TD score on offense and Cal prevented this by staying in their lanes and wrapping up. LaMichael James was dinged up in that game with a painful ankle injury and was putting up huge numbers of carries per game (in fact he had gone over 25 carries in five of his previous six games at that point), while Kenjon Barner was still trying to get healthy after his scary concussion at WSU a month earlier. This year the Ducks have a fully healthy LMJ who has not had to carry the rock for as many carries per game while still leading the country in rushing. In addition to Kenjon Barner, the Ducks are able to throw two highly touted freshmen in to the mix with DeAnthony Thomas and Tra Carson at the Cal defense. Oregon will not need to ask LMJ to win this on his own by taking 25-30 carries because he will have healthy backups who are capable of running the ball against a P12 defense. The Bears also have done little over the last three seasons on the road to make me think that they will become the first team since 2008 to beat Oregon in Autzen Stadium. To slow down the game Cal will need to be able to run the ball effectively to keep Oregon’s offense off the field and at the same time have an efficient passing game to keep the defense honest. Taking a glance at Zach Maynard’s stats this year and you see a player that has thrown the ball a lot but is not playing very efficiently with a completion percentage in the mid 50’s. To beat Oregon I think Cal has to have balanced attack and complete those key third down and long situations. If he is not approaching 70% completions I find it pretty dubious that Cal will have much luck on third down. Cal sports a nice 1/2 wide-out combination in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones who should put up some nice numbers but in the end I think Cal will have trouble running the ball consistently for the entire game and this will allow for Oregon to run away with the win. The Ducks will put up at least 250 yards on the ground and I think it will be nice day for Cal if they can put up 150. Thomas will pick and choose when he wants to pass and the strength of the Oregon running game has made it pretty easy for Thomas to be selective (note his completion percentage of over 65% and his 12 to 1 TD to interception ratio). I see the final score of this game being 55-21 with the Ducks going to 2-0 in conference play. Cal, sporting a 3-0 OOC record should remain on track to get to six wins this season and back to a bowl game after a subpar 2010 season but will be looking at starting league play 0-2 (the win versus Colorado was a non-league game). For Oregon fans awaiting the return of Cliff Harris in a meaningful role keep waiting. Terrence Mitchell has played quite well since getting picked on a bit against LSU and doesn’t show any signs of giving up his job to Harris or anyone else for that matter. After last year I thought it would be a no brainer that Cliff would be a three and out player but barring an injury to guys in front of him Harris may spend 2011 as a non-factor and this along with his character questions can’t put him in the best light to NFL front offices. My bold prediction for this week is that Cliff Harris is a Duck in 2012.

Via Flickr:
Emily and I took a vacation to Maui in September 2011 without the girls.

Oregon/Arizona Game Review

Snorkeling Trip to Honolua Bay
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

I am really going to miss Mike Stoops. Say what you want about the guy but his teams have always played hard and you have to love the guy because he is so entertaining to watch on the sidelines. However, it is clear his tough guy act has started to fall on deaf ears with his players, the fans, refs, his assistants, recruits and likely innocent workers in the fast food and roadside coffee industry who you have to imagine have felt his wrath when they forgot to add pickles to his Big Mac or put two pumps of espresso instead of three in his morning vente. The one person though that we are not sure about is his boss, Greg Byrne and ultimately I think Greg is going to make a change at coach this year, whether that be in October or December it will be happening. Going in to the season I had a good feeling that Arizona would start out roughly because face it playing Ok State in Stillwater on 4 days rest then playing back to back games versus Stanford and Oregon is the September schedule equivalent of the Bataan Death March. I don’t think any team in the country would have gone 3-0 in that stretch and very few would have won even one of those games, Arizona’s record is exactly what I thought it would be at this time. The key to them salvaging their season will actually be how they play in their next two games, at USC and Oregon State which certainly look like they may be easier than we would have thought a month ago. If the Cats can win those they all of a sudden put themselves back in to the Pac 12 South race. Well on to the game, I am a Duck fan and if you are reading this you probably want to read about the Ducks and not Mike Stoops and Arizona. Saturday night was a fun game, Oregon’s offense was in beast mode in the first half and LaMichael James had a historic night. Darron Thomas didn’t really even have to throw so I wouldn’t worry about his lack of stats in the passing game. That’s not to say I am not worried about the Ducks on the other side of the ball however. Oregon got pretty lucky in the first half because Arizona consistently shot themselves in the foot with both stupid penalties and dropped passes. The Cats left 14 points off the board by dropping long TD’s and then extended an Oregon scoring drive after a stupid penalty on a third down where they had stopped Oregon from getting a first. Right there folks is a 21 point swing and instead of a blowout you could have had a 28-24 game if Arizona eliminates those three stupid mistakes. Once Arizona got behind they had no choice but to abandon the running game and this led to a ton of pressure on Nick Foles from the Oregon defensive line (kid has a ton of heart and plays with no fear and I’d put him at worst the third best QB prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft). Foles did a very nice job of throwing the ball down the field particularly in the third quarter but it was really too little too late. With a very green offensive line he took a ton of shots and he has to feel let down by his usually reliable receiving corps. This game really should have been a bit closer than it was, how often does a player the quality of Juron Criner drop an easy touchdown reception? The Ducks clearly have to feel better about their running game so I think they will spend the bye week figuring out ways to getting DeAnthony Thomas involved in the passing game and working on establishing Josh Huff and Rashuan Vaughn as deep threats for Thomas. Defensively Oregon needs to get better in man coverage as they will be facing some QB’s this year who can sling the rock in the next month. Helmet sticker to LaMichael James who put himself right back in to the Heisman discussion with his performance on Saturday. LMJ I feel has made himself some nice money by showing to NFL scouts he is a well rounded player. Mel Kiper even took notice of this praising his play on special teams in the return game and his ability to both run between the tackles and to be a factor in the passing game.

Oregon/Arizona Preview

Maui Sunset
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

On paper this game really shouldn’t be close. Arizona has lost seven consecutive FBS games while Oregon has won twenty of its last twenty-one games in Pac 10 play (this will be Oregon’s first Pac 12 game). However there are a few major factors playing in Arizona’s favor that I think will make this game quite competitive and perhaps even Arizona can sneak out a win if the Oregon defense goes in the tank and Oregon makes some mistakes on offense and special teams with regards to ball control. In theory the way to beat Oregon is to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, kill clock with the run and use targeted play action passing to go deep when the Oregon safeties cheat up. It’s a model that was used successfully by Boise State, Ohio State and LSU and to an extent Auburn however Arizona doesn’t have the personnel on the offensive line or at running back to beat Oregon playing that type of game. Arizona, if they want to win, will need to have the type of performance that Andrew Luck had against the Ducks back in 2009. That game is the only shootout that Chip Kelly has lost as head coach and Foles is one of the few quarterbacks who has both the arm strength to and accuracy to beat Oregon deep. Oregon has had a major problem this season stopping the running game but Arizona frankly has looked pretty awful running the ball their last two games and is breaking in five new starters on the offensive line. The Ducks likely won’t need to sell out to the run instead they can drop linebackers out in to coverage or they can blitz. If Foles can get going early deep maybe that opens up some lanes and Arizona could keep the Oregon offense off the field for large chunks of time. Oregon will be brining the heat early and often and draws are a great counter to frequent blitzes. The crowd, the field and the weather could all be factors that give Arizona an advantage in this game. Does Oregon lose a key player due to the field conditions and does a slower track slow down Oregon’s playmakers in space from creating long touchdown runs? Will the ZonaZoo disrupt Thomas’s ability to make calls at the line of scrimmage and will the desert heat sap the strength of the Oregon defense? All of these factors could easily contribute to Oregon both scoring less points on offense and giving up more points than they are used to an explosive, yet inconsistent in the Red Zone Arizona, offense. On the Ducks side do we see the emergence of Cliff Harris back in the return game and more importantly the defensive backfield? I’d expect the Ducks to run a lot of nickel and dime sets, if you have both Harris and Gildon on the field it will make it that much tougher for Foles to throw at will. Foles won’t be able to pick on the freshman corners with Harris in the game and this could open up chances for Gildon to make an interception or two. I think this game could very well be a repeat of the 2010 Oregon/ASU game in Tempe. Final score Oregon 44 Arizona 36.