Oregon/Arizona Preview

Maui Sunset
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

On paper this game really shouldn’t be close. Arizona has lost seven consecutive FBS games while Oregon has won twenty of its last twenty-one games in Pac 10 play (this will be Oregon’s first Pac 12 game). However there are a few major factors playing in Arizona’s favor that I think will make this game quite competitive and perhaps even Arizona can sneak out a win if the Oregon defense goes in the tank and Oregon makes some mistakes on offense and special teams with regards to ball control. In theory the way to beat Oregon is to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, kill clock with the run and use targeted play action passing to go deep when the Oregon safeties cheat up. It’s a model that was used successfully by Boise State, Ohio State and LSU and to an extent Auburn however Arizona doesn’t have the personnel on the offensive line or at running back to beat Oregon playing that type of game. Arizona, if they want to win, will need to have the type of performance that Andrew Luck had against the Ducks back in 2009. That game is the only shootout that Chip Kelly has lost as head coach and Foles is one of the few quarterbacks who has both the arm strength to and accuracy to beat Oregon deep. Oregon has had a major problem this season stopping the running game but Arizona frankly has looked pretty awful running the ball their last two games and is breaking in five new starters on the offensive line. The Ducks likely won’t need to sell out to the run instead they can drop linebackers out in to coverage or they can blitz. If Foles can get going early deep maybe that opens up some lanes and Arizona could keep the Oregon offense off the field for large chunks of time. Oregon will be brining the heat early and often and draws are a great counter to frequent blitzes. The crowd, the field and the weather could all be factors that give Arizona an advantage in this game. Does Oregon lose a key player due to the field conditions and does a slower track slow down Oregon’s playmakers in space from creating long touchdown runs? Will the ZonaZoo disrupt Thomas’s ability to make calls at the line of scrimmage and will the desert heat sap the strength of the Oregon defense? All of these factors could easily contribute to Oregon both scoring less points on offense and giving up more points than they are used to an explosive, yet inconsistent in the Red Zone Arizona, offense. On the Ducks side do we see the emergence of Cliff Harris back in the return game and more importantly the defensive backfield? I’d expect the Ducks to run a lot of nickel and dime sets, if you have both Harris and Gildon on the field it will make it that much tougher for Foles to throw at will. Foles won’t be able to pick on the freshman corners with Harris in the game and this could open up chances for Gildon to make an interception or two. I think this game could very well be a repeat of the 2010 Oregon/ASU game in Tempe. Final score Oregon 44 Arizona 36.