Oregon/Arizona Game Review

Snorkeling Trip to Honolua Bay
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

I am really going to miss Mike Stoops. Say what you want about the guy but his teams have always played hard and you have to love the guy because he is so entertaining to watch on the sidelines. However, it is clear his tough guy act has started to fall on deaf ears with his players, the fans, refs, his assistants, recruits and likely innocent workers in the fast food and roadside coffee industry who you have to imagine have felt his wrath when they forgot to add pickles to his Big Mac or put two pumps of espresso instead of three in his morning vente. The one person though that we are not sure about is his boss, Greg Byrne and ultimately I think Greg is going to make a change at coach this year, whether that be in October or December it will be happening. Going in to the season I had a good feeling that Arizona would start out roughly because face it playing Ok State in Stillwater on 4 days rest then playing back to back games versus Stanford and Oregon is the September schedule equivalent of the Bataan Death March. I don’t think any team in the country would have gone 3-0 in that stretch and very few would have won even one of those games, Arizona’s record is exactly what I thought it would be at this time. The key to them salvaging their season will actually be how they play in their next two games, at USC and Oregon State which certainly look like they may be easier than we would have thought a month ago. If the Cats can win those they all of a sudden put themselves back in to the Pac 12 South race. Well on to the game, I am a Duck fan and if you are reading this you probably want to read about the Ducks and not Mike Stoops and Arizona. Saturday night was a fun game, Oregon’s offense was in beast mode in the first half and LaMichael James had a historic night. Darron Thomas didn’t really even have to throw so I wouldn’t worry about his lack of stats in the passing game. That’s not to say I am not worried about the Ducks on the other side of the ball however. Oregon got pretty lucky in the first half because Arizona consistently shot themselves in the foot with both stupid penalties and dropped passes. The Cats left 14 points off the board by dropping long TD’s and then extended an Oregon scoring drive after a stupid penalty on a third down where they had stopped Oregon from getting a first. Right there folks is a 21 point swing and instead of a blowout you could have had a 28-24 game if Arizona eliminates those three stupid mistakes. Once Arizona got behind they had no choice but to abandon the running game and this led to a ton of pressure on Nick Foles from the Oregon defensive line (kid has a ton of heart and plays with no fear and I’d put him at worst the third best QB prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft). Foles did a very nice job of throwing the ball down the field particularly in the third quarter but it was really too little too late. With a very green offensive line he took a ton of shots and he has to feel let down by his usually reliable receiving corps. This game really should have been a bit closer than it was, how often does a player the quality of Juron Criner drop an easy touchdown reception? The Ducks clearly have to feel better about their running game so I think they will spend the bye week figuring out ways to getting DeAnthony Thomas involved in the passing game and working on establishing Josh Huff and Rashuan Vaughn as deep threats for Thomas. Defensively Oregon needs to get better in man coverage as they will be facing some QB’s this year who can sling the rock in the next month. Helmet sticker to LaMichael James who put himself right back in to the Heisman discussion with his performance on Saturday. LMJ I feel has made himself some nice money by showing to NFL scouts he is a well rounded player. Mel Kiper even took notice of this praising his play on special teams in the return game and his ability to both run between the tackles and to be a factor in the passing game.

Oregon/Arizona Preview

Maui Sunset
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

On paper this game really shouldn’t be close. Arizona has lost seven consecutive FBS games while Oregon has won twenty of its last twenty-one games in Pac 10 play (this will be Oregon’s first Pac 12 game). However there are a few major factors playing in Arizona’s favor that I think will make this game quite competitive and perhaps even Arizona can sneak out a win if the Oregon defense goes in the tank and Oregon makes some mistakes on offense and special teams with regards to ball control. In theory the way to beat Oregon is to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, kill clock with the run and use targeted play action passing to go deep when the Oregon safeties cheat up. It’s a model that was used successfully by Boise State, Ohio State and LSU and to an extent Auburn however Arizona doesn’t have the personnel on the offensive line or at running back to beat Oregon playing that type of game. Arizona, if they want to win, will need to have the type of performance that Andrew Luck had against the Ducks back in 2009. That game is the only shootout that Chip Kelly has lost as head coach and Foles is one of the few quarterbacks who has both the arm strength to and accuracy to beat Oregon deep. Oregon has had a major problem this season stopping the running game but Arizona frankly has looked pretty awful running the ball their last two games and is breaking in five new starters on the offensive line. The Ducks likely won’t need to sell out to the run instead they can drop linebackers out in to coverage or they can blitz. If Foles can get going early deep maybe that opens up some lanes and Arizona could keep the Oregon offense off the field for large chunks of time. Oregon will be brining the heat early and often and draws are a great counter to frequent blitzes. The crowd, the field and the weather could all be factors that give Arizona an advantage in this game. Does Oregon lose a key player due to the field conditions and does a slower track slow down Oregon’s playmakers in space from creating long touchdown runs? Will the ZonaZoo disrupt Thomas’s ability to make calls at the line of scrimmage and will the desert heat sap the strength of the Oregon defense? All of these factors could easily contribute to Oregon both scoring less points on offense and giving up more points than they are used to an explosive, yet inconsistent in the Red Zone Arizona, offense. On the Ducks side do we see the emergence of Cliff Harris back in the return game and more importantly the defensive backfield? I’d expect the Ducks to run a lot of nickel and dime sets, if you have both Harris and Gildon on the field it will make it that much tougher for Foles to throw at will. Foles won’t be able to pick on the freshman corners with Harris in the game and this could open up chances for Gildon to make an interception or two. I think this game could very well be a repeat of the 2010 Oregon/ASU game in Tempe. Final score Oregon 44 Arizona 36.

Oregon/Mizzou State Review

Maui Brewing Company
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As expected Oregon/Missouri State was a blowout. What was not expected was Missouri State driving the ball down the field on the opening drive and putting up seven points on the Oregon defense. Clearly the Bears defense was extremely undermanned against the Ducks but their offense was decent early and put up some relatively nice rushing totals. If Oregon can’t do a better job of stopping the run they could drop a few games in the Pac 12 regular season particularly to schools with mobile QBs (Stanford, UW and Cal area all coming to mind). Darron Thomas looked like he was playing on the JV level in NCAA 2012 because his receivers were open at will but deep and short. LaMichael James averaged over 12 yards per carry and Colt Lyerla is showing off some of the potential that made him such a high level recruit. It appears as if Rashaun Vaughn is showing some chemistry with Darron Thomas and he may end up being that missing outside threat the team lacked against LSU. Cliff Harris again sparingly played and is reported to have some type of wrist injury. I think it is very likely he takes a lot of snaps versus Arizona as the Cats will be throwing a ton on Saturday. DeAnthony Thomas continues to show why he is one of the most exciting offensive players in the country. Oregon actually had Missouri State re-kick after their kicker launched a ball out of bounds. Thomas proceeded to take the kickoff back to the 44 yard line bettering Oregon’s yardage by four yards over what the penalty placement would have been at.

Oregon vs Missouri State

Trip to Gearhart
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Oregon versus Missouri State is clearly just a glorified scrimmage. For the Ducks the main goals will be avoiding injuries, working out the kinks in the running game, integrating Cliff Harris back in to the defense and seeing what they have from some of their young players who haven’t had much game time. I’d expect a score of around 63-0. Missouri State will likely not have as much time of possession nor rushing yards that Nevada was able to put up and Oregon will probably try to run slower drives in the second half to eat up clock. I’d expect to see Bryan Bennett play most of the second half at quarterback and for LMJ to sit down early as well. I don’t see any reason to risk the health of Kenjon Barner and Josh Huff so I think they will sit out as well and try to get healthy for Arizona in eight days.

The Top 5 Oregon Non-Conference wins of the pre-BCS Pac 10 era

Kahana Sunset
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Aside from the improbable Rose Bowl/Cotton Bowl run of 1994 and 1995, the Oregon Ducks in the pre-BCS Pac 10 era (1978-1997) were the definition of mediocre. Terrible no, their counterparts up the road in Corvallis can take that title. Oregon was a slowly building program under Rich Brooks that typically played just well enough to lose to the better teams in the Pac 10 and would pull a home upset from time to time but typically found themselves in the bottom half of the Pac 10 and on the outside of the bowl picture. Oregon typically followed the model of playing one team from the Big 10 or Big 8 and two teams from western part of the country to round out the OOC schedule. Here are my picks for the Top 5 non-conference wins by the Oregon Ducks from the pre-BC S Pac 10 era:
5. 1995 Oregon 34 Illinois 31 – Illinois was certainly no juggernaut but they did have two future NFL draft picks in their linebacking core in Kevin Hardy and Simeon Rice and were a consistent bowl participant in that time. This was a close exciting and a bit higher scoring game they perhaps would have been projected with Gang Green facing off against the illini. This back and forth game was won by the Ducks when safety Jaiya Figueras forced Illinois to fumble and then recovered the ball in the endzone. This was the first of Mike Bellotti’s many home wins at Autzen Stadium in a season that saw Oregon go to the Cotton Bowl.
4. 1994 Oregon 40 Iowa 18 The Iowa Hawkeyes had some glory years under the legendary Hayden Fry but at the time of this game were a mediocre program as Fry’s career came to its end. No one expected anything out of Oregon who had gone 5-6 in 1993 and had just lost back to back games to Hawaii and Utah in pretty convincing fashion. The Ducks put together a 40-18 win that not many around the country would notice. The win over Iowa did however turn around Oregon’s season and the players gained a lot of confidence from the solid win over a traditionally strong Big 10 team. The next week the Ducks would be noticed by the entire college football world as they would go down to LA and knock off the heavily favored Trojans and would go on to their first Rose Bowl since the 1950’s.
3. 1989 Oregon 44 Iowa 6 – Iowa did not have a very good 1989 season however the next year they would find themselves in the Rose Bowl and in the previous 7 years before that they had been to bowls. This era was probably the height of the Hayden Fry era and for that 1989 game to start the Hawkeye’s season they were ranked in the Top 5 of the AP poll. Oregon was coming off a very disappointing 6-6 campaign that had stared out great for the Ducks. They had climbed as high as 12th in the poll and had a 6-1 record with only a close loss to #2 in the country USC. However, Oregon would lose a 22-21 game at Autzen to Arizona State and in the process also lose star QB Bill Musgrave. Without Musgrave the Ducks never won another game and had no national expectations for much success as they had not played in a bowl game since 1963. To almost everyone’s surprise the Ducks went on the road to Iowa City and pulverized the Hawkeyes who were one of the few teams to ever be ranked in the Top 5 to start a season and not have a winning record. You could say Oregon ruined their season before it even started. The Ducks on the other hand took the momentum from this game and ended up winning their first bowl game since 1963, an Independence Bowl win over Tulsa. In the 26 seasons previous to 1989 Oregon played in zero bowl games, since 1989 Oregon has only failed to play in a bowl game 4 times.
2. 1987 Oregon 10 Colorado 7 This low scoring affair was played in Boulder, Colorado to start the 1987 season. Oregon had just seen their best QB since Dan Fouts, local boy Chris Miller move on to the NFL as a first round draft pick of the Atlanta Falcons. In his place stepped in a freshman from Colorado that virtually no one had ever heard of named of Bill Musgrave. Musgrave lead the Ducks to a win over the steadily improving Buffs in his very first start. All of a sudden Oregon fans had something that had been lacking since the days of Mel Renfro and that thing was hope. The Ducks would finish 1987 with a winning record but were denied a bowl bid mainly because of a mid-season four game losing streak.
1. 1990 Oregon 32 BYU 16 – BYU was on top of the college football world of beating then #1 and defending national champion Miami the week before in Provo. Perhaps they overlooked the Ducks or perhaps it was Musgrave and Autzen magic at play but the favored Cougars were physically beat down by Oregon in this game. Ty Detmer would have over 400 yards passing but BYU could not get any running game going at all and Detmer would throw five picks three of them to Darryle Smith. I am still not sure that Autzen has ever been louder than it was for this game. The game was shown to a large audience on ABC and gave great exposure to the program nationally.