Pac 10 Tournament Predictions and ranking of Coaches on the Hot Seat

On Wednesday play I feel Oregon and Arizona State will win based on talent alone. Dick Bennett’s boys will play tough and then lose out to the talented but lack-luster Ducks while ASU will give Rob Evans one more win before he is set out to pasture.

Thursday UCLA rolls ASU and UW puts a tired Oregon squad away after the Ducks give a game effort for 35 minutes. USC will beat Cal causing more questions about whether Cal should really be in the NCAA tournament however with 12 wins in the Pac 10 they really can’t be left to the NIT. Arizona ensures their bid with a win over a beat down Stanford team.

Friday’s UCLA Arizona game looks like it could be a classic but UCLA striving to wins it’s first Pac 10 tournament since it was brought back beats Arizona probably knocking the Cats down to a seed in the 10 range which might actually be better than the 8/9 they were looking to fall in to. By beating Stanford Arizona made up for the Washington loss last Saturday. I think USC will have more to play for than Washington and with Gabe Pruitt back and the home crowd sneak past a streaking Washington squad.

Saturday’s finals have bubble teams across the country freaking out but UCLA just has too much down the stretch for USC and a sigh of relief is breathed across the country as USC will have to settle for a NIT berth despite having 19 wins the 8-10 league record in a down year for the conference doesn’t warrant an NCAA bid despite a OOC win versus North Carolina.

I predict that UCLA, UW, Cal and Arizona all receive bids to the NCAA tournament. USC and Stanford will be offered bids to the NIT but Stanford will end of declining the bid due to “academic priorities”

We have already seen one change in Head Coaches in the Pac 10 this year and that was the switch from Dick Bennett to Tony Bennett, though this should have come as no surprise to anyone. Here is a hot seat level for the coaches in the Pac 10 right now from coldest seat to hottest seat:

1. Lorenzo Romar – Has worked wonders at UW, the team is hot and they have become a power in recruiting. By keeping more in state players from leaving the Seattle area Romar can easily field a top 20 program. With Adam Morrison likely leaving after thus year for Gonzaga UW will take over the title as the Northwest’s best program.
2. Tim Floyd – I don’t think anyone could have predicted a 17 win regular season at USC. With a new arena next year and some top flight recruits coming in the future looks good for Floyd, though he will now face the issue of raised expectations.
3. Lute Olson – Lute is an institution in Tucson but this season had to have worn on him. I don’t sense too many whispers yet on whether it is getting time to hang them up but another down year in 2006-2007 and expect some pressure to mount on Olson.
4. Ben Howland – Howland has done a nice job rebuilding UCLA. However anything less than a Sweet 16 this year and fans will not consider the year successful. That is the burden a UCLA coach has to live with.
5. Tony Bennett – Dick Bennett brought hope to Pullman and just by doing that you have to consider his tenure a success. Tony will get at least three years to try and grow on that success and next year they have a legit shot to finish in the Top 6 of the Pac 10 with a strong returning nucleus.
6. Ben Braun – Has been good but not great at his years in Berkeley. This year was most likely his best shot at winning a Pac 10 title and they came up short. The Bears can look back at blowing home games to ASU and Oregon State as why that occurred.
7. Jay John – This season OSU had a good deal of hope for a NIT type year based on a strong senior class returning. It just didn’t pan out for the Beavers who were really hurt by injuries. They are losing some key pieces and I don’t see a lot of chances for them to finish in the upper division next season. John was signed to an extension earlier in the year so he does have a lot of rope.
8. Trent Johnson – 2006/2007 has to go down as the worst year in Stanford basketball probably since early in the Montgomery era and Stanford loses three key seniors this year in Chris Hernandez, Matt Haryasz and Dan Grunfield. Johnson needs to raise the level of athleticism down on the Farm. A Josh Childress type athlete would have meant the world to Stanford. Johnson needs to win the games they are supposed to win and that just didn’t happen this season for whatever reason. If he doesn’t come back with a NCAA appearance next year I think that the rich alums down in the Bay Area may be calling for his head on a platter.
9. Ernie Kent – Ernie has the support of the AD and very little else. However I don’t think Bill Moos will let Ernie go this season but unless Oregon goes back to the NCAA’s next year Kent is gone, the pressure on Moos will be too high not to make a move.
10. Rob Evans – Good guy who just hasn’t won enough at ASU to continue on as coach. The new AD will likely want her own guy in their so she did surprise some by signing Dirk Koetter to an extension in football after a disappoint run as well.

All in all I expect that only Evans will not return for next year. Should be a fun week of the Pac 10 tournament and then the joy of Selection Sunday and March Madness will be upon us.

Pac 10 Power Poll 2/27/06

This week’s marks the final week of Pac 10 regular season basketball and the championship is still up for grabs. Washington at Arizona and UCLA at Cal will highlight this week’s slate.

1. UCLA (1) In great shape to win the league championship. Only getting swept in the Bay and having UW sweep the Arizona schools can keep and Cal beating USC can keep the Bruins from at least a share of the Pac 10 championship.
2. UW (2) Beat Stanford and Cal solidly at home and they are peaking at just the right time. UW is rising up the seeding chart and it will be interesting to see if they get to play UCLA again in the Pac 10 tourney.
3. UA (4) ASU brought no challenge to the Cats. I think they are solidly off the bubble and in to the NCAA’s. They can look back at slipping past Oregon as the game that kept the Cats streak alive of attending NCAA tournaments.
4. Cal (3) The Bears appear to be slipping lately. Getting swept at home and a first round loss is the only way I could see them slipping out of the NCAA’s but Ben Braun can’t be happy with how his team has performed down the stretch. It has been since 1960 since a Berkeley squad has won a Pac 10 title but Cal still holds the chance to get a tie for the title if they can sweep UCLA and USC this weekend.
5. Stanford (5) Barely snuck past WSU and got hammered by the Huskies. Trent Johnson’s team severely lacks athletes. They will be NIT bound unless they can win the Pac 10 tournament.
6. Oregon (7) Easily the leagues biggest disappointment but I won’t discount their chances of putting up a NCAA tournament run next year.
7. USC (6) I had to put them behind Oregon based on Thursday’s loss to the Ducks. A road sweep in the Bay and then a run to the Finals of the Pac 10 tournament and then maybe they get in the conversation. Easier said than done though I like them as a dark horse at Staples to make a run.
8. ASU (8) Got run at McKale, have lost 22 of 23 to in-state rival Cats.
9. WSU (10) I’ll move them up a notch for effort but they still lost twice this week.
10. OSU (9) Up 6 on UCLA at halftime and then got run in half two. They could put a ton of extra pressure on Bill Moos if they can beat the Ducks on Saturday.

Pac 10 Power Poll 2/20/06

Interesting week as some teams from lower down the rung knocked off the top dogs. Both UCLA and Cal lost games that had they won would have made them very hard to catch in the league race. Now with only 3 or 4 games left on the schedule for each squad any of the top 5 teams left in the conference have a legitimate shot at getting the #1 seed. If Stanford ends up winning the Pac 10 but losing say their first round game in the the Pac 10 tourney would they still get in? In the modern NCAA era 1985 and on no team (eligible) has won a BCS conference regualr season title and not been invited to the dance, could Stanford be the exception? Had they hung on to beat Arizona they would have been tied for first in the conference with UCLA and Cal. Well on to the poll for the week:

1. UCLA (1) Did they get complacent watching ASU beat Cal the night before? By no means was this a devastaing loss to USC however it could cost them a seed level come tourney time and makes it more difficult to win the outright Pac 10 title.

2. UW (3) Two nice wins in Oregon. The Huskies seem to bee finding their stride which bodes well. A conference title is still possible and I think if the Dawgs were to run the table from here on out they could garnish as high as a 2 seed.

3. Cal (2) That loss to a very gritty and undermanned ASU team at Haas may rank as the upset of the year in conference play. You have to wonder if this game took Cal from lock to bubble status.

4. Arizona (4) Lute's guys are just about off the bubble. Got a nice win on the road at Stanford and now the Cats have 16 wins and should end up hitting at least 19 before bids are giving out. Mark them down as an NCAA lock unless they lose out the rest of the regular season.

5. Stanford (5) Really needed to beat Arizona. Barring a major suprise I think they would need to win the Pac 10 tourney to get in however they could still win the Pac 10 regular season title which would cause quite a dilemna for the selection commitee.

6. USC (8) Big win over UCLA puts USC in a nice spot to avoid playing on day one of the Pac 10 torunament which is key for a team that is NIT bound unless they can win it all at Staples.

7. Oregon (6) Lost another nailbiter game to UW. No team in the Pac 10 has lost more close games than Oregon. This team could make a huge run up the standings next year if they can tighten it up in late game situations. I think Ernie Kent is going to escape with his job.

8. ASU (9) Veru gutty performance by the Devils in Berkeley. Not that it will save Rob Evans job though. He is a classy guy who will land on his feet with another job.

9. OSU (10) Well they beat the Cougs so I can't put them last. That is all I can say good about the Beavs this week.

10. WSU (7) Decided to take the week off. Only managed to have 10 points at halftime against Oregon.

Valentine’s Day Power Poll

Oregon in February got to love it . . . well not I don’t love it but I am excited for the upcoming 7 weeks because of a few factors. One is that we have entered the time of year where teams are falling off and on the bubble and resumes are being polished. I still think the Pac 10 looks like a 3 team league that will get 4 teams invited and while Stanford played heroically in it’s two losses this weekend they are the team that will be on the outside looking in. Second will be the whole Championship Week, Selection Sunday roll in to the actual tourney and then finally I will be taking leave of the US to visit my family in Taiwan. Hope I can find some channel that are showing the games from round 3 on in Asia . . . well on to this week’s poll:

1. UCLA (1) – Lost a toughie at UW a place where not many teams win. Discounting UW UCLA has only been bested by Cal however they still have to venture to Berkeley once more and that one could be for the regular season title. Great defensive performance in Pullman by the way Ben Howland.
2. Cal (3) One a tough one versus Stanford at Haas. Very key win as it puts the Pac regular season title in Cal’s hands if they can beat UCLA at home and then they would have the tie-breaker over the Bruins due to a sweep of UCLA. Cal is a lock for the NCAA’s now and are working on raising their seed number.
3. UW (5) I think UW moved themselves off the bubble. They added a sweep of UCLA to their resume and the Gonzaga win looks better now that they have beaten Stanford (albeit it was close but a win is a win).
4. Arizona (4) Needed to sweep the Oregon schools and did though it took a minor miracle aided by dumb coaching, questionable officiating and incompetent play by Oregon to get Lute a must win. We will look back at the Oregon game as perhaps the reason why Arizona will be making the NCAA tournament field in a month.
5. Stanford (2) Played two tough road games and loss them both in close fashion. Unfortunately they needed to get a road win this weekend to pump up their downtrodden RPI (thanks to UC-Davis and Montana losses). Looks like the Trees only shot at a non-NIT/stay home year is to win the Pac 10 tournament.
6. Oregon (9) It takes serious talent to blow a 7 point lead in a little over a minute but Oregon was up to the task. Nice rebound to beat ASU but it all just shows that this is probably a Top 30 team talent wise that just can’t put it together for some reason or another.
7. WSU (7) The Cougs managed to only have 12 points at halftime versus UCLA but rebounded nicely against USC. No injury to Derrick Low and these guys might be sitting in 4^th place or better right now. I think Dick Bennett will try to make a NCAA run next year and then let son Tony take over. He has planted the seeds in the hardest place to win in this league. Quite impressive with the Mid-Major monster of Gonzaga 70 minutes up the road and a very solid UW program to the west.
8. USC (6) After beating Arizona at home two weeks ago after a road sweep of the Oregon schools the talk in LA was that USC was a few more wins from putting themselves in the discussion for a NCAA bid. Then the loss to ASU occurred, Greg Pruitt got hurt and the season went in the tank. USC should salvage a NIT bid which considering the disaster that was last year is a pretty good season. Now they need to have Nick Young stick around for another year and build off that.
9. ASU (8) Well ASU finally got a Pac 10 home win but the Oregon loss was just another nail in Evans coffin.
10. OSU (10) The wheels on the bus have fallen off. Lets see if the return of Jason Fontenot can help OSU to try to salvage a home win this weekend. All they can do now is try and cause damage to other teams years.

Pac 10 Power Poll 2/6/06

Well first off I have to say that I have never seen an NFL game called in such a one-sided manner as yesterday’s Super Bowl. Not to take anything away from Pittburgh but the Seahawks had at least 11 points taken off the board and that doesn’t include some other skeptical calls made by the Zebras. Unless the NFL wants to be put in the same league as the NBA which gets accused of picking which teams they want to win in the playoffs the NFL needs to firm up there officiating pronto. Well on to the good ole Pac 10 Power Poll:

1. UCLA (1) Swept the Zona schools and in my opinion have completely distanced themselves from the rest of the pack. This team looks like they have a decent run in them come March and the future looks very bright for Ben Howland.
2. Stanford (3) Road sweeps are huge. Chris Hernandez continues his owning of the Oregon Ducks and Matt Harayasz just might sneak in and take Pac 10 player of the year. A win at Gonzaga this Saturday might get these guys in the Big Dance which is amazing after the disaster of their non-conference schedule.
3. Cal (4) Hadn’t done much of anything on the road this year but a nice sweep of the Willamette Valley puts Cal in the NCAA’s as of right now.
4. Arizona (2) It is almost disaster time in Tucson. Lute is one more bad loss from the NIT and the significance of that is epic. Arizona has the second longest NCAA tournament appearance streak in NCAA under Olson but the loss to USC will haunt them and I don’t know if they would get in today if the bids came out. A home sweep of the Oregon schools this week is absolutely necessary.
5. UW (5) WSU has the number of the Dawgs who if they keep it up just might find themselves in the NIT a year after being a #1 seed. A terrible OOC schedule will hurt them and remember though they beat Gonzaga the Zags were nowhere near full strength and still almost beat UW. If UW doesn’t make the NCAA’s they can look at their two games versus WSU as the reason why.
6. USC (6) Had a chance to make a statement and get on the bubble before they blew that game to ASU. However the NIT is a nice get for a team many picked for 10^th in the conference.
7. WSU (9) Beat UW by 13 . . . now if they could only play as well against the rest of the league as they do against Lorenzo Romar’s boys.
8. ASU (10) Well this team plays tough and you know they were going to knock off someone good soon, funny that both Pac 10 wins they have are on the road.
9. UO (7) Ernie Kent does less with more than any coach in this conference. What many Ducks fans were hoping to see was a 4-0 home-stand and had that happened Oregon would be in 2^nd place in the conference. Instead 4 close losses occurred with some questionable coaching decisions and lack of execution down the stretch. Oregon basketball these days reminds me of the Paul Hackett USC regime of the late 90’s and 2000. Great athletes who just don’t seem to improve while in the current system and who seem to lack heart. I think the blame needs to be put on Kent and his assistants for that.
10. OSU (8) An 0-4 home stretch makes for an angry Jay John. This is a senior laden team who I expected a bit more from this year.