For most of the season it has appeared that USC, Cal and Oregon were a step or two ahead of the rest of the conference, however with USC struggling to win close games, Oregon self destructing in Pullman and Cal needing overtime to beat a Husky team at home without it’s starting QB you have to wonder if the herd has caught up to the Pac. A couple of schools who were all but left for dead a few weeks ago, Oregon State and Washington State, have cashed in some big wins and are back in the bowl race while early favorite Oregon, ranked as high as 11th before the loss in Berkeley has seen their season turn in to one where the best likely scenario sees them spending some time right after Christmas enjoying all that Ciudad Juarez has to offer. Like in 1998 Oregon has taken too many hits on the injury front and the offense has come one-dimensional and turnover prone. Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon have been quite disappointing the last three weeks and one has to wonder if Brady Leaf and Jeremiah Johnson deserve more playing time based on their performances in Pullman. Two gallant efforts in loses by UCLA and Washington seem to show me that their caches are taken their schools in the right direction though they need to learn how to finish, particularly in the case of UCLA. As for Stanford and Arizona basketball season is almost upon us.
1. USC (1) – Defeated BYE this week and in doing so got some much needed rest for a young and injury depleted team. Carroll and company hopefully used the extra practice time to find their offense which is performing at half speed compared to what we have seen since 2002. The Trojans face a resurgent Beaver team coming off road two wins, but I give OSU no chance in this game for a three factors. One being that Mike Riley teams don’t beat ranked competition. Two, the horrific on the bandwagon, off the bandwagon, on the bandwagon again, soon to be off the bandwagon once more if USC scores early fan base has made the Bean Dip a house of horrors for the home team. The Beavers could learn a few lessons from the fans of South Carolina who have supported their team year after losing year in a program whose bowl history is similar to Oregon State. Finally the most important factor is that Oregon State lacks the athletes of USC
2. Cal (2) – Not sure how a team forces 4 interceptions in regulation while throwing none of their own and still needs to go to OT to beat a team they are favored to beat by 18. Well last second scores in both halves made this game appear much closer than it ended up being but Cal definitely needs to worry about the secondary outside of Mr Hughes. The Bears are clinging to an outside shot at still having a BCS championship opportunity and need to play with a bit more conviction after two sub-par games versus the Washington schools.
3. Arizona State (4) – Arizona State at least on paper could win out. The key will be pass protection, basically if Rudy Carpenter gets the time the Devils have the weapons to beat any team left on their schedule and their two toughest match-ups with WSU and UCLA will both be in Tempe. Beating Stanford probably doesn’t tell us much about ASU but true to form Dirk Koetter wins the games he is supposed to and not much else. As ASU will likely be favored from here on out they have a distinct possibility to finish the year with 9 wins. Amazingly due to the terrible bowl arrangements that the Pac 10 has the conference could have 4 teams with 9 or more wins with only two of those losses being not against each other and still only get one bid. This will happen if USC beats Cal which will knock Cal out of the BCS in almost any scenario.
4. Washington State (6 ) – For the first time all year a member of the perceived “Big 3” has been knocked out of the perch (Oregon) and has been replaced by school who has lost to three teams in the BCS Top 11. Looking back the result of the Oregon game was pretty predictable. Eugene homeboy Ben Brink led the Cougars with grit and made only one mistake all game and it came so late it was all but meaningless while the Ducks offense under Dixon and Stewart became mistake prone, predictable and downright ineffective until Oregon brought in Brady Leaf and the Cougars went prevent. Due to tie breakers over Oregon WSU actually still has a legit shot at the Holiday Bowl if Cal wins the Pac 10, a scenario which is all but impossible for Oregon even though they could finish 10-2 and in the Top 15 in the final BCS. The Cougars can clinch up a bowl spot with a win at what has to be a mentally beat down UCLA in what is most certainly the Pac 10 game of the week.
5. Oregon (3) – This year reminds of the early Bellotti regime. A hot September filled with lots of offense and promise and then an October swoon. Luckily Oregon faces a de-facto bye-week versus Portland State to prepare for a much tougher than expected Washington who has likely been circling this game all year. The Ducks can’t continue to turn the ball over at the rate they have been doing. The main culprits in this sense have been Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart who needed to play smarter and with greater toughness. What was once a team with sky’s the limit national aspirations looks destined for a third tier bowl somewhere in the nations southwest region.
6. UCLA ( 5) – Great effort in South Bend came all for not when UCLA decided to run the prevent you from winning defense and didn’t pressure Brady Quinn on the final drive after hitting him upside the head the whole game which let Notre Dame score a late TD to win the game. You get so few opportunities to win games like that, UCLA, despite a great effort was let down by their coaching staff in my opinion. UCLA now will host a good WSU team at home in a game that Dorrell desperately needs to get to a bowl game.
7. Oregon State (7) – Won a second straight road game but now face a return to the unfriendly confines of Bean Dip Field. Will the fans and students turn quickly or Moore and Riley if USC scores early? The Beavers are on the cusp of a bowl but will need to win 3 more games this year to get there. USC will not be one of those three wins.
8. Washington (8) – In a very weird game Washington was able to take Cal to overtime before they were done in a foolish Carl Bonnell pass and the running of Marshaun Lynch. Kudos to Coach Willingham for getting his team up enough to take Cal down to the wire but frankly this team faces major issues at QB. Bonnell has to make better decisions to have any chance of winning and I wouldn’t count on any more Hailmarys to work this year. Give Washington’s defense major credit for keeping the score relatively low despite all the interceptions.
9. Arizona (9) – The loss to Oregon State may well have sealed Mike Stoops fate. This team is boring, beat up and dejected.
10. Stanford (10) – Put this horse to sleep. This team may go down as not only the worst Pac 10 team of the last 20 years but may be the worst BCS conference team since its inception. I just don’t see a win on the remaining schedule
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