Preseason Projections Reviewed

Vacation to Maui
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Here were my projections pre-season. included are notes as to what really happened . . .

North: Well reverse WSU and OSU and I nailed this one the injury to Jeff Teul was the biggest factor here I think.

1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UW
4. Cal
5. WSU
6. OSU

South: Well I whiffed on UCLA I guess but as expected this division was a joke in 2011.

1. USC
2. Utah
3. ASU
4. UA
5. CU
6. UCLA

Champion in a blowout UO over Utah at Autzen Stadium. I am calling it a few hours early but like Oregon big tonight over UCLA.

Pac 12 Offensive POY: Andrew Luck Not that I went out on a limb here but got this one correct . . .
Pac 12 Defensive POY: Shayne Skov Skov was hurt in September on the bad grass of Tucson Mychal Kendricks from Cal ended up winning

Freshman of the Year: George Farmer USC Farmer didn’t play until mid-season and played RB – Marqise Lee and DeAnthony Thomas were both dominant and shared the award

Breakout Star: Markus Wheaton OSU – Wheaton had a good season but only scored 1 TD – If I were to pick again I take Curtis McNeal from USC or Keith Price from UW

Coach of the Year: Kyle Whittingham - The cupboard was pretty bare for Utah at the skill positions overall a disappointing year one in SLC. David Shaw won it but I think that Lane Kiffin should have.
Hot Trend for 2012: At least two new coaches in the South – Got this and well really should have said it would be 3


Trending Up: WSU – This may have come true had they been healthy at QB this year.

Trending Down: UA – UA was not in a bowl this year and fired their coach Mike Stoops mid-season

Bowling: UO, Stanford, UW, Cal, Utah, ASU – UCLA got a waiver and is eligible even though they will finish 6-7

Don’t be shocked if: Utah “wins” the South with 4 conference losses – Had they not crapped the bed against CU this would have happened instead UCLA pulled off the feat despite getting boat raced 50-0 in their final game versus USC

Team I could be very wrong on: OSU – Nope OSU was in the words of Dennis Greene “what we thought they are”

Call me crazy but : One of either Mike Stoops or Rick Neuheisal don’t survive October – Surprisingly Rick made it to late November I was wrong on this one – Stanford could have lost to USC and Cal but Luck pulled those both off and well Oregon destroyed Stanford.but I was correct on Mike

Fairly certain: Only one Pac 12 team will play in a BCS bowl and it will be Oregon in the Rose Bowl – I hope this doesn’t happen, it will be a raw deal if Stanford doesn’t make the Fiesta Bowl

You heard it here first: Stanford beats Oregon but loses two other games in league play – I was wrong on this one – Stanford could have lost to USC and Cal but Luck pulled those both off and well Oregon destroyed Stanford.

Civil War

Fall in Beaverton
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

The 2011 Civil War was certainly civil though not much of a way. Man I felt like I was watching a game between Oregon and a 1-AA team not our in state rival. The fans were not fired up, no one Duck nor Beaver who I talked to, figured the game would be competitive. There was way less tension than we have seen in this rivalry for quite some time both on the field and in the stands. Oregon, though it was playing for a P12 North title, seemed to treat this as more of a scrimmage and the Beavs were just undermanned. Had Oregon been crisper in the first half this game could have finished with a Ducks score in the 70’s. What has happened to Oregon State? This was a program that just two years was playing for Rose Bowl – now they’d be lucky to win the WAC. I think Riley has done about as well as possible for them but with both UW and WSU improving (not to mention the rise of Stanford) it is just that much harder for another team in the Pac 12 North to compete for titles. Oregon State is clearly losing the recruiting wars on the offensive and defensive lines and it is leading to a team that can’t run nor can stop the run. On to the P12 Championship game. Does anyone really care? Does anyone think that lame-duck Rick has any chance of winning this game? Ticket prices are at gouge level and the P12 is taking away much of the in game amenities that Oregon fans enjoy such as the fog horn and Duck Vision. I know they want more of a neutral atmosphere but in trying to find that goal they are turning off Duck fans. Let Autzen be Autzen and make it a reward for winning the North. Oregon 52 UCLA 6.

Oregon/USC Review

Taiwan Beer
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Well the wounds are licked and I am ready to talk about the USC/Oregon game. First off the Trojans deserve a hell of a lot of credit for a great game plan and near perfect execution. Matt Barkeley was incredibly accurate and Marquis Lee was just masterful in positioning himself to make some very tough catches. I didn’t think the Oregon corners did a bad job of coverage I think that Lee, Woods and Barkeley just were that spectacular that all they needed was an inch of spacing in front of the Db’s fingers to make the play. Oregon can look back at so many things that could have gone different and kick themselves but crying over spilled milk is pointless. Bottom line is that they were dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and made too many mistakes in the first three quarters to have a good chance to win. The comeback was great but the last 30 seconds were confusing to me. I don’t like the chances of Maldonado hitting from 30 let alone 37 and with 8 seconds and 2 timeouts I would have thought they should do a quick throw for 10-15 yards to have a better chance to make the kick. The Ducks need to move on quickly and now can concentrate on winning their first Rose Bowl since 1917! Helmet sticker to Kenjon Barner who showed he can run between the tackles and is a huge receiving threat. He should pick up the slack big time in 2012 with the almost certain to be NFL status of LaMichael James.

A little bit on Stanford a little bit on USC

Vacation to Maui
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Oregon’s victory over Stanford last Saturday was one of those rarest of rare feats. A victory on the road over a top 5 opponent. So far this year it has only been accomplished by LSU, Texas Tech and TCU. Rankings wise this was the best true road win in the history of the program breaking the mark of the 1997 team who beat a #6 Washington team in Montlake. Oregon made Stanford look slow and confused and Luck lacking playmakers was off his game. Oregon is clearly peaking right now and I think they could give any team in the country a run for their money right now. On to USC . . . USC’s top 22 players are probably among the best if not the best in the country but the team lacks depth and is facing some injury issues. USC also has had major issues playing games in the state of Oregon lately. USC if they bring their “A” game can give Oregon a run for their money as they have a QB who is similar to Luck but without the mobility and a much better receiving core than Stanford’s. USC needs to build up a large lead and kill clock because Oregon will wear down the Trojan defense in the fourth quarter. A factor to look out for is the weather, it may snow and I think that may hinder both teams. The lower a score game the better the chances USC has to win. Will USC be mentally ready for this game or will they fold up their tent? I think this years squad has shown more mettle than the Trojans have brought in awhile and that is due to the leadership of Matt Barkeley. They are not eligible for a bowl this year (screwjob by the way) but still can claim a P12 South title despite what the league says. Look for Barkeley to connect with Lee and Woods and McNeal to have a nice game running. USC leads at half but Oregon runs away late in a game much like last years. Oregon 44 USC 31

Oregon/Stanford Preview

Fourth of July
Originally uploaded by pete4ducks.

Well unless there is a major upset in the actual Pac 12 Championship game today's game in Palo Alto will crown the Pac 12 champion and the winner will at worst find themselves in the Rose Bowl. Since spring practice ended I've liked Stanford to win this game but with the losses they sustained at TE and WR in the last few weeks my thinking has switched to an Oregon victory. The Ducks defense have found their footing and are playing quite well on a yard per play average. The Ducks are forcing a lot of three and outs and the offense is coming back and scoring the next drive - that is deadly. Everyone knows this will be a game of contrasting styles - of speed versus strength and option spread versus power sets. Both of these teams can really execute well on both sides of the ball and make few mistakes, the winning team will likely be the one who's defense can make a stop in the fourth quarter when both squads should be gassed. Health wise Oregon is in better shape than Stanford though the Ducks will likely again be lacking Anthony Gildon at cornerback. Stanford on the other hand is missing Ertz and likely Levine Toilolo as well. In addition Chris Owusu Stanford's fastest offensive player will be out. Andrew Luck will still have all of his backs available plus Coby Fleener and Ryan Whalen but this is clearly a diminished corps from what they had been bringing out earlier in the season. I look for Nick Allioti to bring a lot of pressure on Luck and to mix things up a bunch by dropping his defensive ends in to coverage from time to time. Stanford has been great against the run all year but I think Oregon will be able to get their typical 250-300 yards yet again. I think Chip throws the entire kitchen sink at Stanford and you may even see some sets with James, Barner and DAT all on the field at the same time. Luck may be getting all the press but if Darron Thomas can play an efficient game and have his completion percentage in the high 60's and not make any big mistakes it should put Oregon over the top. In a game that will be an ESPN Instant Classic I like the Ducks to prevail 38-34.