Week Four Review and Pac 10 Power Poll

Evie and I
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Not often do Top 10 teams lose by 39 points to unranked opponents. Not often does perhaps the leading Heisman candidate drop off the list altogether after an off game. And not often is a Cal/Oregon game a blowout. Not often does a team ranked 118th in offense but up over 300 yards in the first half alone and 42 points. However all of these things happened at Autzen Stadium last Saturday and the result was a Pac 10 race clearly in flux. After the Boise State game many Duck fans having given up hope and after the UW/USC game people had all but given the Pac 10 title to Cal but now both of those beliefs need to be readdressed. The upcoming Cal/USC game is for all intensive purposes a playoff game, probably more so for Cal than USC. If the Bears were to lose to USC it makes the road to Pasadena all but impossible for them since they would have loses to both USC and Oregon and unless they expect the Ducks and Trojans to each drop three Pac 10 games that will eliminate them from anything better than the Sun or Holiday Bowls. USC is still in the national title hunt and probably won’t be looking past the Bears since the Bears are still ranked and this has become a pretty intense rivalry despite USC’s domination in the win column. The Stafon Johnson injury is tragic but USC probably more so than anyone else in the country has depth to burn at halfback. More important for them I believe is to have Jeremy Bates open up the playbook. Cal on the other hand was clearly looking past Oregon to USC and the Ducks handed the Trojans a perfect notebook on how to play against Best. Force him to run inside and stack the box to make Riley beat them. Cal is a much better tem at home clearly but will they be able to pick themselves up off the mat after last week? The second playoff game of the week is Stanford vs UCLA. The Bruins have a very solid d but a shaky offense and in my book are still quite unproven. If they can contain Gearhart they can make a game of it but if not expect the Cardinal to grind out a victory and get to 3-0 in league play. If this happens they will be in the thick of the Rose Bowl race. They get Oregon at home late in the year and have been the only team since 2001 to beat USC in the Coliseum in league play. Oregon State could see its season go in the toilet if they can’t beat ASU and history says they won’t. The Beavs have not beaten ASU in Tempe since 1969 and Arizona State looks to have a solid offense. Look for Riley to have a quick trigger finger with Canfield if he craps the bed early with a pick. The Washington Huskies clearly were a bit hungover from USC to compete against Stanford. Being weak against the run against a power running team doesn’t work out too well. The Huskies played Stanford at a really bad time in between big time names USC and Notre Dame. Weis will be under immense pressure note to drop a game to Washington since he needs to go 10-2 to get a BCS bid and still has USC to play. Might still be a year to early for the Dawgs to go bowling. They will need to beat WSU, split with the Arizona and Oregon schools and steal a victory somewhere else to get 6 wins. Possible but a loss to Notre Dame makes that even tougher. Arizona made the switch from Matt Scott to Nick Foldes and the mulleted one was fairly prolific through the air against a weak Beaver pass defense. Nice road win for the Cats before the bye week. ASU played just well enough to lose at Georgia, they should be able to regroup with a win versus the Beavers. Jeff Tuel looked pretty solid in relief duty for WSU who is a hard playing yet low talent level team. They should struggle mightily in Eugene. Oregon has put up over 50 points both times Chip Kelly offenses have matched up with the Cougars.


1. USC (3) – Good news is they got Barkely back for WSU. Quite worrisome they went over 30 minutes without scoring vs the Cougs and only put up 27. Now they face the rest of the year without Stafon Johnson who is replaceable on the field but was a key senior leader on the offense in the huddle. Will this team continue to struggle offensively against non San Jose State defenses? If the Trojans lose to Cal do the wheels come off on the season for Carroll.
2. UO (4) – The Oregon performance last week amazing. The defense looks to be the best unit for the Ducks since at least 1995. However the coaches poll didn’t seem to notice. They somehow moved Boise State to 5th and then kept Cal 5 spots ahead of Oregon. BCS if you want any legitimacy force the coaches vote to be made public every week or better yet take the voting out of their hands completely and let AP and the Harris poll decide it.
3. Cal (1) – Probably read their press clippings a bit too much and got outplayed in all aspects of the game versus Oregon. Tedford teams have had a tendency to give up on the season after tough losses when they are highly ranked. Does this happen again? Lose to USC and the Rose Bowl is completely out of play.
4. UCLA (5) – I think that Stanford will beat them this week but until the game is played I will honor the only undefeated Pac 10 team left in the Bruins. Stanford/UCLA should be a low scoring game but I will give the edge to the team with the better offense in Stanford.
5. LSJU (8) – I have been under-ranking them since the Wake Forest game but still think this squad has an outside shot at the Rose Bowl if USC drops another game. Harbaugh has taken Carroll’s model of how to build a program at a private – high academic standard school and I truly believe that his goal to contend for national championships at Stanford is actually possible if he can keep his staff in place and keep the recruiting up.
6. ASU (7) – Hadn’t played a real team until the Georgia game and play the Dawgs close Between the Hedges. I still have major questions about the offense but the Devils have a tough defense and will be a difficult team to defeat at home. A win over OSU makes the Beavers path to being bowl eligible look not so hot with 5 Pac 10 road games this year and already a home loss.
7. UA (9) – Looks like Stoops made the right move with going to Foldes. The Cats get a week off to prepare for Washington who may be a bit tired after the emotional USC win and then back to back road games. Arizona beating Washington makes it very likely the Cats ends up in the top half of the conference.
8. UW (2) – Big drop I know but I had to honor them last week for the win versus USC. That they had a letdown versus Stanford was no surprise but the run defense looked atrocious as Toby Geahart went for over 200 yards. That isn’t a good sign for a team playing in a conference with a lot of solid power running teams.
9. OSU (6) – The Beavs have been off all year and maybe this is the season that Riley’s late season magic goes away. I think they need to move on to Moevao but the bigger issues may be on defense.
10. WSU (10) – I give the Cougs a lot of credit for having some heart. Makes me wonder if they can steal a home game some time this year against a team like OSU or UCLA.

Pac 10 Power Poll & Week Three Review

Obviously the big story was Washington beating USC the question begs though is whether we should be surprised or not. Looking at the numbers we should probably not be surprised. USC is the epitome of a LA team as they tend to only get up for “name” competition. Outside of the Trojans loss to Texas Pete Carroll hasn’t lose a game to a non Pac 10 school since early 2002. Washington, like Oregon State and Stanford before it defeated a heavily favored USC team that didn’t put 100% focus in to playing the days opponent. The Huskies had a gutty effort from a defense that has been maligned for years as well as great QB play from Jake Locker. The Trojans probably should have opened up the playbook more for Aaron Corp. Even in the Ohio State game USC played very close to the vest, luckily in the Ohio State game USC was playing a coach more conservative than Glenn Beck in Jim Tressell. Of other note the question begs is how good of a “game coach” Pete Carroll is. The Trojans don’t have a very good record in games decided by 6 points or less under Carroll so it makes me think that his success has been probably more based on great recruiting and being able to get good athletes to play well in a team concept rather than brilliant strategizing. Carroll has prevented the type of slides seen in the Hackett era where if USC were to be out of the National Championship race they’d quickly fold the tent. If they were to lose to say Cal and either Oregon or Notre Dame and get knocked out of the Rose Bowl and the BCS Title game will the team keep playing at such a high level? We shall find out. Oregon found a semblance of a running game but again beat a team more so with special teams and defense than because of the offense. Jeremiah Masoli needs to start connecting with his receivers and finding Ed Dickson. Frankly pretty amazing to only complete 4 passes and win a game but the Ducks find themselves now 2-1 with a huge game versus Cal coming up. The Bears got 5 TDs from Jahvid Best but have to be a little worried about surrendering 21 straight points to Minnesota. Oregon has better team speed than the Gophs and will have just as much or more of a home advantage than Minnesota. Oregon/Cal games tend to be very close since Tedford arrived with Cal typically prevailing however 2007 was the first time since 1988 that Cal had won in Eugene. I think they make it 2 two in a row but we shall see. UCLA was able to beat a BCS team with Kevin Craft at the helm, that in itself was quite an accomplishment. Prince will likely now be back for the Oregon game, UCLA has a bye week this week before playing Stanford. ASU and Stanford both won games against bottom dwelling FBS teams. OSU lost to a tough and fast Cincinnati team that has the easiest route to the BCS Championship of any team in the county. Finally WSU earned the right to return to the poll with a win versus SMU. Savor the victory Cougs it is the last one you will see till next September, maybe . . .
1. Cal (2) – Did what they need to do go out and win on the road in a game played not on the West Coast. Jahvid Best is a Heisman contender right now and the Bears with a win over Oregon have the inside track to the Rose Bowl with USC already having a loss.
2. UW (5) – Maybe short lived as the Dawgs have yet to play a road game and face Stanford on Saturday. Sarkisian has turned around the ship but let’s see if they can get past the USC hangover to beat the Trees.
3. USC (1) – Have they ever been this low in my poll? Not sure I’d check but I don’t have the time. Pity the Cougs who have to travel to the Coliseum to face a very angry team of Trojans.
4. UO (6) – The Ducks could easily be 0-3 right now and if they don’t find a semblance of a passing game to find some balance they will tumble down towards the bottom of the Pac 10. Beat Cal and the BSU game will be all in the past and the Ducks will have their Rose Bowl fate in their own hands.
5. UCLA (9) – Undefeated but I am still pretty suspect of this team. Can’t lose on a bye week won’t know if they are real until they play Stanford.
6. OSU (4) – Hasn’t played a good game this year and are a home dog to Arizona. I don’t agree with that as I think the Beavs are the better team but outside of the Rodgers brothers they are really devoid of playmakers.
7. ASU (7) – Pretty hard to judge them based on the schedule they have played. Travel to a Georgia team that is a bit less talented than they have been in the past but still ASU is a twelve point dog. I like Georgia big in this one.
8. LSJU (10) – Beat SJSU , always nice not to lay an egg on that game like has happened so many times in the past. Stanford has a shot to jump to 2-0 in Pac 10 play if they can beat Washington.
9. UA (8) – Had a pretty crappy performance in Iowa City that has lead to Matt Scott’s benching. Now have to travel to Corvallis before the bye week hits. If the Cougs can’t get the passing game going they could be in trouble.
10. WSU (NR) – Congrats Cougs you are back on the list after getting a win. Your prize is a trip to LA to play USC.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week Two Review

USC once again played a powerhouse BCS conference power and once again vanquished said foe. The Trojans were outplayed for most of this game and I still wonder about their ability to sweep all of their Pac 10 road games as well as Notre Dame this year. There are major roadblocks upcoming starting in Seattle a place that has been an after-thought for just about anyone not from the bottom reaches of the WAC over the last few years. The Washington game is a perfect example of the type of game that USC struggles where they overlook the opponent (Stanford 07, OSU in 06 and 08, UCLA in 06) so even though USC should on paper dominate this game could be a good matchup. The drama of the Sarkisian/Holt regime playing their old boss in Pete Carroll could prove interesting. Cal, Washington and Arizona all played Big Sky teams (you should have stayed their Idaho and you know it) and not much noteworthy to be taking form those scores outside of UW breaking the streak and Arizona only coming up with 34 points versus a FCS opponent. I have yet to see the Cats play so hard to judge them at this point but they should not be only scoring 34 versus State Directional College nor should they be surrendering 17. Going in to Iowa City without Rob Gronkowski could prove difficult. Both Oregon and Oregon State squeezed out wins versus teams they should probably have beaten by more points. The Ducks have to be happy with the job of the defense to make big plays as it saved the offense’s bacon by putting up two scores. The Oregon offense finally showed a pulse in the 4th quarter but for the Ducks to even hope about going to a bowl this year they need to put together more drives. Third down has been atrocious on both sides of the ball and the time of possession numbers put up by the offense are pathetic. The Ducks use of the no-huddle is doing the defense no favors whatsoever and isn’t fooling anyone on the opposite side of the ball. The playbook will need to be opened up for the Ducks to defeat Utah. The Beavs may have looking past UNLV or maybe had too good of a time in Vegas but with the win all is forgiving. They will face a very high scoring team in Cincinnati who is the first ranked BCS conference opponent to travel to Corvallis in who knows how long. The BearCats killed the Beavs in 07 so revenge will be on the mind. Does OSU have the horses to match Cinci’s high scoring attack? Jaquizz is dinged up again and probably can’t shoulder a huge loud so Riley is going to have to get creative. ASU should roll ULM but they have to face Georgia in two weeks. UCLA pulled a major surprise in going to Knoxville and beating Tennessee who was obviously looking past the Bruins to their matchup versus the Gators. Major problems in seeding the Bruins in my poll this week. Kevin Prince got hurt and is now out 3-4 weeks so that means that Kevin Craft is the likely starter. Even thought they are playing the putrid Kansas State Wildcats a Kevin Craft led team doesn’t inspire much confidence in me. UCLA should face a tough next month or so. Stanford went east played early and lost a game they were ahead 14-0 in to Wake Forest. Will this game cost them that bowl bid for the first time since 01. Perhaps, if they also lose to Notre Dame they’d have to win 4 more Pac 10 games just to get to 6 and they’ve already played and beat the Cougs. I don’t want to waste more than a sentence talking about the Cougs so I won’t.
1. USC (1) – Got outplayed for 59 minutes in the Horseshoe yet still won. Why is that? Well Jim Tressell continues his play not to lose strategy which against a team like USC works basically never. Aaron Corp looks to take the reins now as super-frosh Matt Barkely has a bum shoulder. Husky Stadium will be loud and if they can play like they did on defense versus LSU and stop the turnovers on offense well the Dawgs have a shot. USC gets WSU next week so I don’t think they will look past the Huskies, the visit to Berkeley looms large though.
2. Cal (2) – Scrimmaged against Eastern Washington. Now the Bears need to avoid what they did the last two years and that is losing a game east of the Rockies. The Bears have adjusted practice schedules to try and get the body clocks on Central Time. Minnesota has recruited well the last 2 years so they have some good young athletes and now play in a swanky new on campus stadium. The Gophs will be fired up for this game and if the Bears look past them to the Oregon game they could stumble.
3. Really Big Drop off here – Until further notice I have booted the Cougs out of the Pac 10 and until someone proves they deserve it I am leaving the 3 spot empty. Had UCLA not lost Kevin Prince to injury I would put them here but since they did well I will keep this spot warm for one of the teams below who can prove they belong with a nice win versus a ranked opponent.
4. OSU (3) – UNLV is not a very good team but seem to always give teams a tough fight at night in Vegas just to lose (well except to you ASU . . .) Cincinnati is a very fast team on both sides of the ball. The winner of this game will probably be in the 40. I question whether OSU has the firepower to match the Bearcats point for point but the Bearcats also don’t have any experience playing on the West Coast. Big game for Pac 10 pride.
5. UW (5) – The streak is over! Yes it was Idaho but a win is a win when your last win was in November of 2007. The Huskies now go from playing on the of 3 worst FBS teams to one of the 3 best FBS teams. The Husky fans, coaches and players are up for this one but it could prove too much too fast. Sarkisian has them on the right path but Carroll won’t let his boys look past the Dawgs. Unless all Aaron Corp can see is purple the Trojans take this one.
6. UO (6) - The Ducks probably stole the Purdue win but give credit to the ball hawking defense. I am encouraged by the running game finding some late traction but the Ducks need to be improved greatly to beat Utah. Utah has looked quite un-impressive and is untested in it’s tour de crap de WAC (do they play Idaho and New Mexico State this year too?) but they do have all 5 starters back on the oline, a great front 7 and have won 16 straight games. Utah always plays Oregon tough but luckily for the Ducks this one is in Autzen and BSU is the only non-BCS team to beat the Ducks in Autzen since the Rich Brooks era,
7. ASU (7) – Didn’t play last week and off to Georgia in two weeks this week not much to say as I have yet to see this squad on TV but they should roll ULM.
8. UA (8) – Again unimpressive scoring numbers. Grigsby put up 200+ yards but that was against NAU. Iowa surely has a better d than the Lumberjacks and won’t overlook the Cats like they did with NIU. However a win here and the Cats look to be in great shape to go to back to back bowl games.
9. UCLA (9) – Purely based on injuries and suspensions for the KSU game. UCLA pulled a huge win in Knoxville and is a very solid defensive team as usual but if they have to revert to Craft at QB should be in a world of hurt in the short term. Thankfully they aren’t travelling to Provo this weekend.
10. LSJU (4) – Big drop yes , really hard to pick team 3-9 at this point and someone had to be last and with the Cougs booted from the poll someone had to be forced down a spot unfairly. Can’t look past SJSU, it has happened way too many times in the past.

Pac 10 Power Poll and Week One Review

Oregon had very high hopes going in to their matchup versus Boise State but saw their dreams shattered by an embarrassing offensive performance on the blue turf. The post-game meltdown of LaGarette Blount will be forever remembered as lore in college football perhaps as much as the famous punch that ended the career of Woody Hayes. Chip Kelly’s legacy as a coach may well be defined by how he gets his team to respond to the horrible performance both on and off the field. Blount, I believe, was a divisive force in the locker room but now that he is gone the entire team will either come together and play at the level they are capable of or they could see the season tailspin in to a year ala 2004 where the Ducks find themselves in the unusual position of being outside of the bowl picture. Playing Purdue is probably the best thing for Oregon right now but they are also not a team that they Ducks can automatically beat ala a Portland State. If the Ducks can’t beat Purdue (Autzen Stadium at night, long travel, body clocks thinking the game starts at 10:15) the Ducks will be lucky to beat anyone on the schedule outside of Washington State. If they can regain their mojo on offense versus Purdue the Ducks should be able to get things back on track and finish towards the top of the Pac 10. In the other notable game Washington showed they may have a pulse again in their performance versus LSU. Jake Locker was fairly effective as a drop back passer and Polk gave them a real running threat for the first time in well I can’t remember. The Dawgs have lost 15 straight games but that streak will end this weekend versus the putrid Vandals of Idaho. Stanford looks to be improved but it is tough to gauge anyone when they play WSU but a league road win is still a league road win. Cal, USC, ASU and OSU all rolled up on sub-standard competition but I was particularly impressed by Cal’s demolishing of a Maryland team that beat the Golden Bears last year. Let’s see how the Bears respond to playing Oregon but if they keep it up I think this Cal team has a legit shot to end the USC Pac 10 championship streak. UCLA and Arizona both got wins which is positive but they were not overly impressive. The Cats defense did a good job holding high flying CMU to 6 points but to only score 19 at home versus a MAC team could be some warning signs that Matt Scott could struggle a bit this year to match what Tuitama gave them.
1. USC – USC started out a bit slow versus San Jose State but then ended up putting 56 on the Spartans. Ohio State in Columbus is a much different experience and Matt Barkley may not have as much confidence as he showed in game 1. The Buckeyes played like dung versus Navy but may well have been looking past the Midshipmen to the Trojans. Pryor is a great athlete at QB and the Trojans have suffered a few losses over the years to duel threat quarterbacks in Vince Young and Dennis Dixon. I think USC will squeak out a win versus Ohio State but would by no means be surprised to see Ohio State pull the mild upset.
2. Cal – Dominant performance versus Maryland but this was also to be expected. An ACC team traveling west to play at night against a high powered offense that wants revenge is a recipe for disaster. Cal has a scrimmage versus EWU this weekend so the main key is to avoid injuries.
3. OSU – Not much can be gleaned from the performance versus PSU outside of the fact that Jaquiz Rodgers seems to be on the mend. The Beavs can’t afford a slip up to UNLV but it is a dangerous game for them. The Pac 10 was mauled by the Mountain West last year and that trend needs to be reversed.
4. LSJU – Jim Harbaugh has set the bar high for his Trees and they got a much valued road W in league play. Ofcourse it was against Big Sky front runner Washington State but hey a win is a win. Stanford travels all the way to Winston-Salem this weekend to play Wake Forest. Tough place to play and the travel will be tough but a very important game for Stanford to win if they wish to go to a bowl game for the first time since 2001.
5. UW – Husky Stadium was rocking, UW had some swagger and they gave LSU a battle though the final score was padded by a TD by Washington on the last play of the game. The streak should end versus Idaho if it doesn’t there is something ghastly wrong still with the Huskies. USC awaits the week after as the Trojans continue their tour of loud opposing stadiums to play road games in but I don’t we will get a real gauge as to how much Washington has improved until they face Stanford on the road on 9/26.
6. UO – Not much more needs to be said. The Ducks need to regain focus and need to remember that it is not about your name or how you look but how you play if you want to be a champion. Masoli needs to learn how to check down if he wants to remain a starter and the defense can’t be made to play another 40+ minute game.
7. UA – Solid defensive performance versus a high flying offense means that Stoops defense may be one of the better in the conference. The Cats do have to be concerned about only putting up 19 but they get to scrimmage NAU this weekend before they go out to face an Iowa team that should have lost to FCS member Northern Iowa.
8. ASU – Not a team I have much confidence in and playing Idaho State who is the worst team in the Big Sky means nothing as they have a bye this week the Devils get an incomplete grade from me.
9. UCLA – San Diego State is a terrible team and UCLA got the W versus them but now they have to go to Knoxville to face a revenge minded and seemingly rejuvenated Volunteer team with a freshman QB at the helm. Not a good sign for Kevin Prince or the Bruins who can hopefully rally the next week for Kansas State in Pasadena.
10. WSU – The Cougars played decently against Hawaii last year and this is a winnable game for them as well as next week’s battle versus SMU. If the Cougs can’t pull either of these out they are looking at 0-12 in the face unless they pull another Apple Cup miracle.

State of the Program: Pac 10

State of the Program: Pac 10

On field success is probably the largest factor in to defining what a program is but the definition has to encompass more than just that. Analyzing a program has to include other factors such as national recognition, stability, facilities, revenue and coaching which doesn’t automatically correlate with the win/loss record of the last season. Certain schools have built in geographical and historical advantages that should make them a powerful program (USC, UCLA, UW) while others face the issue of not being in recruiting hotbed or large media markets (UO, OSU, WSU). A strong program now gives schools hope for future success but is no guarantee of and schools that do not constantly evolve in terms of marketing, compliance and facilities have programs that can stagnate with Washington being the current example and USC being another in the Paul Hackett era. Here is my attempt to rank the programs as of 2009 in the Pac 10 Conference.

1. USC – How they got to be #1: The Trojans are among a select number of schools that can be considered Top Tier programs nationally with schools such as Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio State. These are schools that consistently compete for national championships, generate large amounts of revenue and garner a great deal of attention from the national media and from prospective recruits. Pete Carroll’s enthusiasm, leadership and ability to relate to the modern college athlete quickly turned around a program that during the 80’s and 90’s had fallen from a dominant force in college football to one that was inconsistent and full of under-achieving prima donna players, clueless coaches and apathetic fans. USC has always been in a position to recruit pretty much the best athletes from the LA area but under Carroll they have been able to pluck athletes from all over the country. The success under Carroll has led to USC being able to sell large numbers of tickets and merchandise which drives revenue and the success of the football team has benefitted the entire athletic department and school in general. Why they will stay #1: Pete Carroll and the location in the LA area should guarantee success in the short term. Kids who are being recruited now don’t remember a time when USC wasn’t a favorite to compete for a national championship every year. How they could slip in the future: Losing Pete Carroll would be the obvious reason but there are some other secondary issues. One is that no one in American sports aside from Tiger Woods seems to stay on top forever and the success of USC has driven the rest of the schools in the conference to try even harder to emulate their success. Issue number two is the state of the LA Coliseum, a building though very large, doesn’t produce the amount of revenue that a modernized building owned by the university would bring the program. The final issue is whether there end up being long term sanctions regarding Reggie Bush and the rent scandal that put the hammer down on USC ala what happened to Washington in the early 90’s My personal opinion is that the NCAA will never punish a major program these days as hard a Washington was punished (no TV games, postseason ban) but a reduction in scholarships could hurt the depth at USC and allow a team such as UO or UCLA to make the Pac 10 a conference where USC isn’t automatically the favorite every year. How they could rise in the future: Have better decision making in close games and rectify the stadium issue to one that is more profitable for the Trojans.

2. UO – How they got to be #2: Oregon, more-so than probably any program in the country figured out in the late 80’s that college football had become a big business and has taken that strategy to heights that few people would have expected. From the time that the Ducks took the unprecedented step to add luxury suites to Autzen Stadium back in the late 80’s the Ducks have seen their success level rise on the field and the level of national media attention garnered towards them increase as well. The stability of the Bellotti reign and the money and marketing relationship with Phil Knight and Nike has put Oregon at the forefront of innovation in the sport both on and off the field. Though the program has made some missteps over the years (Robo-duck, Andy Ludwig, Rich Stubler, Duck Dome idea) the school has more often than made what at the time seemed a controversial decision pay off in the end (Chip Kelly, the expansion of Autzen, the Moshofsky Center, Pat Killkenny as AD). Why they will stay #2: The Ducks have done such a good job of branding themselves as innovators through the Nike relationship, the scheme of Chip Kelly and out of the box thinking that any high school kid who is being recruited around the nation knows who Oregon is now and sees them as a legitimate destination program not a safety school when no other option is available. That Oregon is now a national recruiter is a testament that the branding effort has worked. Though many people find the constant change of Oregon uniforms and the whole billboard thing tacky it has captured the attention of recruits and the media. Better to have them talking about you than not at all and Oregon in the times before the BCS began was an afterthought. How they could slip in the future: The Chip Kelly/Mike Bellotti transition is a complete failure and Oregon’s vaunted stability goes away. There is a fallout between Phil Knight, Nike and Oregon. The economic downturn decreases donations to the program and the Ducks are not able to continue the branding process at the level they have been accustomed to and the Ducks slip back to being that unknown program in a far corner of the country. Oregon’s spread option is solved by opposing d-coordinators and the teams slip in to mediocrity. There is a seismic shift in the tastes and culture of American youth that shifts from what is flashy, new and innovative to a more traditional mindset. How they could rise in the future: Fully taking advantage of the momentum they have from the last two seasons and putting it all together for a national championship run under Kelly that sends a shot across USC’s bow that shows the Pac 10 is going to be up for grabs every year. Keep finishing seasons off like they did in 2008 rather than the typical November fade.

3. OSU – How they got to be #3: By consistently making it to and winning bowl games. Raising Reser to the status of a viable but college stadium from the glorified high school field that it was. Neither of these events nor the Dennis Erickson lead Fiesta Bowl would have happened without the steady hand of Mike Riley’s leadership and an athletic department that rode in on the coat-tails of their Eugene neighbor’s success but instead of becoming the sports version of a tech company they built their program on community and family values. Oregon State under Riley has understood that they need to search deep and wide for players who may not fit the prototypical mold of a college athlete and to mold these recruits in to winners. Riley has taken these kids who play with a chip on their shoulder and gotten them to improve greatly during the seasons and his teams always seem to overcome adversity to finish strong and always with character. That Oregon State has become this after 30 years in the desert is truly amazing. Why they will stay #3: Mike Riley has built a family-centric program that appeals to parents and recruits and Oregon State has upgraded their facilities. The Beavers have taken advantage of playing on ESPN on Thursday night and this had to led to an increase in their national exposure. The back to back home wins versus USC and competing for the 2008 Pac 10 title has shown the program that anything is possible. How they could slip in the future: A few down years could cause Riley to be forced out which would be a huge error or Riley could decide to take a final big payday at another school or the NFL again, doubtful but always possible. The state of the economy could diminish attendance, donations and increase debt and this could stop the improvement in facilities that has occurred in the last five year. With the continued use of the spread nationally Oregon State’s pro-set offense becomes passé and the coaching staff is unable to adapt or teach incoming recruits how to achieve success in it. How they could rise in the future: Play as well as they do in September as they do in November. Riley’s teams have suffered some terrible early season performances, had they not blown the opener versus Stanford last year they would have clinched a Rose Bowl berth before the Civil War was even played. Oregon State should also work to modernize their marketing efforts which look years behind Oregon’s.

4. Cal – How they got to be #4: In the Tom Holmoe era Cal was a hopeless program that was among the worst in all of the BCS conferences. The arrival of Jeff Tedford quickly changed fortunes in Berkeley and Cal quickly became a perennial bowl team. Tedford has the second best record in the Pac 10 since his arrival and had a 4-2 record versus Mike Bellotti. Tedford has gotten the students and alumni to care about Cal football again and has pushed for the modernization of the decaying Memorial Coliseum. Why they will stay #4: Tedford has built a consistent winner and should be able to stay at the school as long as he wants to be there. If the long awaited facility improvements finally are completed Cal will no longer have the issue of being negatively recruited by other teams based on their facilities and this should make it harder for schools like Oregon to poach players out of the Bay Area from the Bears. How they could slip in the future: The facility upgrades get further delayed and this causes Tedford to bolt. Tedford can’t decide on an offense and flounders at both the pro-set and spread variants he has been using. Cal, pretty much on a permanent short leash due to probation violations in the past is caught in some type of NCAA problems and gets sanctions from the NCAA and Pac 10. How they could rise in the future: Get it built! Probably more importantly Jeff Tedford needs to get his team to better respond to adversity. Cal has had a bad habit of letting a bad loss kill their season.

5. Stanford – How they got to be #5: This one is based on potential and a commitment to football from the administration that was clearly lacking before Jim Harbaugh came on the scene. Transforming the stadium from what was an aging over-sized stadium to a much more manageable sized stadium with top of the line facilities has eliminated the perceived facilities gap. The win over USC showed the rest of the Pac 10 that anyone could compete against USC and Harbaugh has the belief that national championships can be won at Stanford. You have to dream big to accomplish greatness. Previous Stanford regimes were happy to beat Cal ever other year and maybe get to a bowl every 4 years or so. Harbaugh has yet to get to a bowl but he has set the table for future success. Why they will stay #5: Harbaugh has instilled a winning attitude and a culture of winning has always been what has defined Stanford as an institution no reason that can’t be extended to the gridiron. Stanford has seemingly endless amounts of money in their endowment so if the school commits to facilities they can give the football program anything it wants. The promise of a quality education in a nice area on a beautiful campus will always be a huge factor for recruits who have the academic standing to get in to the school. How they could slip in the future: Harbaugh could decide to leave. Even if he stays he could have problems keeping quality assistant coaches due to the high cost of living expenses in Palo Alto if the university doesn’t kick in higher pay for assistants. The pool of players Stanford can actually recruit and sign is diminished by rising fortunes at schools they compete with nationally on the recruiting trail such as Duke, Northwestern and Vanderbilt. How they could rise in the future: Put together a program that competes for bowl berths every year and makes a run at the Pac 10 title in the next three seasons.

6. ASU – How they got to be #6: Perennial underachievers who based on geography and campus life should always be a top program in the Pac 10. Dennis Erickson took a large step back in his second year at Arizona State losing 6 games in a row at one point and not making a bowl game. That Arizona State has only won 2 Pac 10 titles since joining the conference is a bit surprising considering the size of the institution and fertile recruiting ground with traditional success raiding both Texas and California for top athletes. Why they will stay #6: Arizona State could continue to go along in the manner they traditionally have and that is being a team with a lot of great individual players that have trouble coming together and putting up championship contending teams. Arizona State very often has been ranked in the Top 25 to start a season yet ends up finishing right around .500 and in a lower tiered bowl game. How they could slip in the future: It would be hard for me to see this program be much worse than it was last year but a couple of things could cause a further slip. One is that the game might have passed Dennis Erickson on. Players could continue to fall in to the trap of having the party life that is the ASU campus sap their drive and desire to perform on the gridiron. The amount of distractions in a place like Tempe is enormous compared to sleepy burgs like Pullman and Corvallis and this could led to more off the field distractions that keeps the program not focused on doing what is needed to garner success. How they could rise in the future: Dennis Erickson could find lighting in a bottle with the JC recruits he has signed in the past two years but for long term stability in the program I think that ASU needs to take greater care in recruiting high character student athletes.

7. UCLA – How they got to be #7: The biggest factor in UCLA’s fall from grace has probably been the rise of USC under Pete Carroll. The Bruins still are able to roll up highly ranked recruiting classes every year but seemed to have problems with depth at certain positions mainly quarterback which is the biggest reason UCLA didn’t achieve what Rick Neuhiesal might have hoped for last year. The Rose Bowl, though a great venue, is not on campus and I believe this leads to the student body not having much of a vested in the program. This in turn leads to alumni who don’t have much interest in the program. Having attended some games at UCLA both when UCLA was competing for Pac 10 titles and when they were an also ran I can tell you that it appears that most of the fans don’t have a connection to the university. Many just want to watch a winning football team play on the field and fans like that don’t give the long time support in years you get from students and alumni. An on campus stadium would do wonders for getting the student body involved with football but I am not sure of the logistically possibilities of this ever happening. Why they will stay #6: I highly doubt they do. Rick Neuhiesal will be able to get a better quarterback situation in place for the future and he has shown at both Washington and Colorado that he can put a winner on the field. They should be back in a bowl in 2009 and for the foreseeable future after that. How they could slip in the future: With all the built in advantages of being a large LA based university it would be hard to imagine things getting much worse for the UCLA program than it was in 2008. They could slip in a couple of ways however. One is that Neuhiesal slips back in to his “Slick Rick” mode and gets nailed by the NCAA for something and UCLA get sanctioned, another could be a breakdown in the deal between the Rose Bowl and UCLA that forces the Bruins to have to do something like playing home games at the Coliseum again where they would always be second class citizens. Finally the disaster that is the California education funding could force the school in to slashing funds for the program How they could rise in the future: Neuheisal should be able to recruit quite well and has always done a good job of developing quarterbacks, UCLA will likely never become what USC is now but there is no reason they can’t become a program that is in contention for Rose Bowls every other year or so. The foundation is there.

8. U of A - How they got to be #8: Arizona is coming off of its best season since Dick Tomey was coach, that is certainly a positive and at least according to the ranking services Mike Stoops has done a pretty good job getting recruits to commit to Tucson. The results under Stoops have not been great though are an improvement over the Mackovic regime. Arizona’s problem is two-fold. First issue is that they are primarily a basketball school, perhaps more so than any other school in the conference (Stanford and UCLA perhaps) Arizona has been defined by their basketball program and football has been a second thought. A root cause for the decay that has been seen in the 2000’s for Arizona football likely was poor idea of firing the very stable and respected Dick Tomey who consistently had Arizona in the top half of the conference for the snake-oil salesman that is John Mackovic. Mackovic tried to the instill a culture that was more West Point or Texas A&M to a campus that is definitely got more of a laid back party/hippie vibe going on. Mackovic forced his players to have short hair cuts and lose the earrings under the guise that this would cause them to be more disciplined but instead it alienated many West Coast kids and put a real hamper in their ability to recruit Hawaii and athletes of Pacific Islander descent which had long been a fertile recruiting ground for the Wildcats. Instead Mackovic focused on his traditional base of recruiting Texas and saw most of his recruiting classes flame out. Mike Stoops seems to have instilled a culture of aggressiveness and toughness but his teams have been characterized by under-achievement and sloppy play. Stoops knows he can’t afford to have a non-bowl season as the natives are restless. His seat is the hottest in the conference. Why they will stay #8: The Cats will start the season with a different quarterback than Willie Tuitama for the first time in 4 seasons. The Pac 10 has traditionally seen teams led by Senior QB’s be successful and then struggle the next season. This could happen to Arizona. How they could slip in the future: The spread offense doesn’t kick in with Tuitama gone and the Cats lose like of folks on defense. Stoops misses out on a bowl, losses to ASU and finishes below Washington. Stoops is fired and the Cats make a mistake in hiring his replacement. How they could rise in the future: The Cats make investments to raise the quality of their facilities which are decaying (particularly their grass surface playing field which is the worst grass field in the Pac 10). Stoops continues to build through recruiting and the spread succeeds without Tuitama. Arizona becomes a consistent bowl attendee finishing in the top half of the conference consistently.

9. UW – How they got to be #9: A book could be written on how the Washington Husky went from being one of the most dominant football programs in the country in the early 1990’s to what was arguably the worst BCS conference team since the BCS started in 1998 (I am looking at you Rutgers 2001). Washington fans will point to the 85 scholarship limit, the track at Husky Stadium, the NCAA sanctions, the purple helmet era, spread offenses balancing the talent gap and Ty Willingham but the biggest factor in Washington seeing its program going in to the crapper has been a series of poor hiring decisions going back to removal of Jim Lambright. Lambright was a gruff figure and had the unfortunate fate of having to follow up Don James who is among the most beloved figures in the history of the Seattle sports scene. Lambright was beloved as a DC but as a Head Coach he didn’t seem to say the right words to the Tyee Club and despite taking Washington to a bowl every year eligible Lambright never won over Tyee because he never got UW back to the Rose Bowl. In comes Rick Neuhisal who gets UW to the Rose Bowl in two years with Lambright’s recruits yet follows up his pattern of cutting corners at a school that was under the microscope of the NCAA for violations under James. Neuhiesal had done a great job of recruiting skill position players but was lackluster in signing offensive lineman and front seven players on defense which had been the traditional backbone of the team. Washington would no longer win the battle of the trenches and then with his habit of really ticking people off and skirting the rules Neuheisal eventually got himself removed as coach of the Huskies. Washington then turned to Keith Gilbertson who was way over his skies and then Ty Willingham who severely misread the job he was taking over and the rest is history. To go 0-12 at a school with all the built in advantages that Washington has is almost impossible. The key for the Sarkisian regime will be making UW relevant again to not just Washington area kids but to top flight California recruits. They can only go up from here. Why they will stay #9: In the short term they certainly could if they build around Locker once more and he gets hurt. They have the talent to sniff .500 but again don’t play the type of schedule that a rebuilding program should have with LSU and Notre Dame on the docket. How they could slip in the future: How could it possibly be worse than 2008? Losing to Idaho perhaps at home? Another round of NCAA sanctions? How they could rise in the future: The Dawgs, with some effort, should be able to rebound to bowl contention by 2010, the cupboard is not nearly as bare as the one in Pullman is. They may want to consider ramping down the OOC schedule a bit. The Dawgs are hamstrung in that they can’t hope to fill Husky Stadium often playing the likes of Idaho and Utah State but they have no chance on the field against teams like Oklahoma, LSU and Ohio State when they invade Husky Stadium. UW is scheduled out for quite some time as if they were that late 80’s dominating team on the West that needs to make a splash to get more votes in the polls but the reality is that they should instead try and concentrate on playing a more manageable schedule to get back to bowl games. Going 1-2 or 0-3 in the OCC means you have to win 5 or 6 games in the Pac 10 to even be bowl eligible which is pretty tough considering the long losing streaks Washington has posted against USC, Oregon and Oregon State.

10. WSU - How they got to be #10: With all due respect to the Cougars intended they should be last on this list every year simply based on the fact that they are not on the I-5 corridor and are in the smallest media market in the Pac 10 by a large margin. Pullman is likely the most remote locations for any Div 1-A school in the country. The Cougars had a nice stretch of time in the late 90’s and early part of this decade but the wheels fell off pretty quickly by the end of the decade. Mike Price’s departure was the downfall of the program, even though Bill Doba was able to put up a 10 win season his first year out, the man was just not equipped to be a head coach in the 21st century in a BCS conference. To win at WSU you have except that you will have some 3-9 years in the mix and then hope that everything comes together for a big year. This formula has been to create a family atmosphere where kids like to play, take risks on guys that other schools may be avoiding because of academic/character issues and hope they pan out and run an innovative offensive system with a hard hitting defense. Of these tasks Doba probably only accomplished one towards the end of his regime and that was taking risks on questionable kids. Unfortunately those questionable kids got in a boat load of trouble and didn’t really excel on the field. Paul Wolff took over a team that not only was facing NCAA scholarship reductions but also was full of stiffs, malcontents and criminals. Wolff has overcome adversity before but he faces an all but impossible rebuilding job. Can he win quick enough to avoid being fired? Not many Seattle area alums are relishing the thought of driving 5 hours to watch more years of pathetic football. Why they will stay #10: Let me count the ways. Terrible economy, scholarship reductions, lack of talent, fan base who is not near the college, isolated campus, challenging conference, inability to attract recruits, strong programs at UO, OSU and Boise State who compete for many of the same players. How they could slip in the future: Lose the Apple Cup, which seems fairly likely this year. They’ve been more successful on the field than Washington has in the last decade for the most part however they are at such a major logistical disadvantage it’s hard to see them keeping up if Washington can even partially get back on the track. How they could rise in the future: Try to regain some of the magic under the late Price era, hope that Boise State fades as a program and a few other Pac 10 programs return to the dumpster fire status of the past (Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford for example) and come up with a truly innovative offense that evens the playing field against more talented squads.