A few thoughts about RPI

I would say I am a freak in the notion that I find tings like the BCS and RPI very interesting. RPI is a useful tool I think but usually not until the end of December or so, we are getting close to that point but reviewing the RPI figures currently out as of 12/14/05 you'll see many teams that are on the list that will drop significantly once non-conference play starts. As good as teams such as Bucknell and Gonzaga and even Memphis may be once they start playing league games they will drop down the ladder significantly. It will be interesting to see where a squad like Bucknell gets ranked come March after beating Kansas last year and Syracuse this year. I don't think anyone from that league has ever gotten higher than a 14 seed but that could change. What I find more interesting is to take a look at Conference RPI. You have to think that there will be some real changes in how many bids each conference gets in March. Conference USA has traditionally been a 4 bid league but with the loss of all it's marquee teams except for Memphis it has the look now of a 2 bid league. Houston has had some nice wins and has an RPI of 14 and ofcourse Memphis is 2 and it's only loss is to Duke. The Pac 10 and Big 12 could be losing bids this year and we may see leagues such as the Missouri Valley and Colonial getting 2-3 bids this spring. As bad as the Pac 10 has been perceived the Big 12 has an even lower RPI, this is particularly bad considering they have 12 teams (though Baylor has yet to play a game, why they are still being punished so punatively by the NCAA for the scummy behaviour of Dave Bliss boggles my mind).

Pac 10 Hoops, it's getting ugly . . . well I went to the Oregon - Illinois game at the Rose Garden . . . well what can I say good about this game, it was nice to see my friends from Eugene and it was nice to see a guy who should be a contender for Big 10 POY in Dee Brown who was en fuego against Oregon. Well on to reality, Ernie Kent has lost this Oregon team. It is basically the same squad as last year switching Crosswhite for Johnson. A loss not mentioned but probably more key than the loss of Crosswhite was losing Litz from the coaching ranks. I certainly don't see the massive improvement in the sophmore class that we saw from the 01/02 team and that has to go on the coaching staff and Ernie as well as the players . . . Oregon doesn't play defense for one. Second outside of Maarty and Ivan who on this team even attempts to rebound? Oregon's offense seems to be passing the ball around the perimeter until the shot clock gets down to 5 seconds and then taking a three. When you play like that and shoot in the 20's you are gonna get run . . . my prediction is that Kent survives the next two years and then resigns/gets fired once Jordan Kent's eligibility is complete after next season . . . here's my "Power" Poll . . .

UW - lots of senior leadership, Brockman, could run away with this league
UCLA - solid NCAA team with a likely seed of 4-6 and a definite shot at being a Sweet 16 IMO, need a healthy Affolo
Cal - Didn't look so hot this weekend for the few moments I caught them on TV, borderline NCAA team that has played a weak schedule so far
Arizona - Arizona is really missing the shooting of Salim . . . has the look of an 8/9 seed, which could be a very dangerous out for a 1 . . .
WSU - Clearly not in the same league as Gonzaga . . . NIT would be huge for them
USC - Jury is still out on Floyd but USC has some decent young talent
UO - something smells rotten in Eugene
OSU - got handled by UP, UP is not good . . .
ASU - Played the Gophs tough at home then lose to Utah Valley State . . . who is Utah Valley State?
Stanford - How are these guys playing so poorly?

Oregon hoops what can I say . . . I thought they had a gutty effort against Vandy and they lost on a heart breaking shot, I can accept that . . . then they laid an egg to an agressive and big Georgetwon team ending a 37 game home winning streak against non Pac 10 foes, they seemed to show no life in that game and obviuosly were hungover from the Vandy loss but we have seen that often with Kent teams, losing streaks after heart breaking L's . . . facing Illinois on Saturday is pretty much a make or break game for the Ducks as for the NCAA's, I don't really see a lot of differnce from last year but maybe I can be convinced otherwise . . . How bad is the Pac 10 in basketball . . . I am talking about you Stanford . . . lose by 19 to Montana and then lose to UC Davis . . . do your self a favor and check out Bob Clark's article in the guard today . . . by the way UC Davis lost to Cal State Stanislaus . . . no suprise to me that Oregon lost out on the BCS . . . when LSU and then Va Tech lost I know that OSU and NDU were locked in to the 4th and 6th places leaving the Fiesta Bowl no choice in taking the 5th place BCS team . . . I think OSU, UO and Notre Dame all have good arguments someone was gonna bet hosed and luckily for John Junker the rules took his desicion out of the mix . . . the Pac 10 has definitely been more hurt by the BCS than any other conference in terms of payouts though I think the worst exclusion ever was probably K State in 1998 . . . Note to the Ducks, you better beat a very much improved Oklahoma team in San Diego or all the wining from fans is meaningless, the coaches and players though have handled the whole thing with pride and class and I give them kudos for that . . . the two biggest BCS shafts (ie not getting a bid, not the no championship game garbabe that screwed Oregon and USC) in the past were probably K State and Cal and both lost pretty badly in there lower tier bowl games . . . I see the Ducks showing up but Oklahoma should be not underestimated . . . expect to see Alliotti sell out to the run and hope Petersen can be stopped . . . I see a whole lotta Ngata in his future . . . well looking forward to going the Pape Jam on Saturday, hope the Ducks decide to show up to . . . speaking of hoops does the Pac 10 even get 4 bids this year? Right now I'd say no based on RPI numbers but they will probably change as the year goes on . . .

Cheers and Jeers

Cheers . . . Adam Morrison as a player of the year candidate
Jeers . . . Adam Morrison's porn-stasche
Cheers . . . Oregon going 10-1
Jeers . . . lacking a marquee win to lock up a Fiesta bid
Cheers . . . The Maui invitational
Jeers . . . The lack of other good holiday tournaments

Well for anyone who got a chance to catch any of the MSU/ Gonzaga game last night it was a classic. Both of those teams played at very high levels. I can always count on Izzo to go a long ways in March but we shall see if Few can ever put it together. I just don't think the Zags improve as much as High-Major conference teams in Janauary and February becuase of the conference they play in.

Oregon is 3-0 but I don't think they have been any where close to tested. Pacific is a good name after doing well in the tourney last year but they lost 7 major contributors from last year's team.

Hope everyone can enjoy Thanksgiving!

Pac 10 Basketball predictions

Oh first I want to preface this by saying I am way behind on my research. Since moving up to Portland I have way less free time than I did in Eugene for a variety of reasons that are mainly good. I am pretty much throwing these picks up based on who is returning from last year and I have yet to see any games from Pac 10 squads this year. However come February I promise that I will be a Pac 10 hoops expert again. Here are my picks:

1. Arizona - some good senior leadership along with quality youngsters
2. UCLA - Bringing East Coast toughness to the Pac 10
3. Washington - Brockman looks to be a candidate for Pac 10 Frosh of the year
4. Stanford - Cagey, experienced need to avoid injury bug of last year
5. Cal - So much depends on Powe's health
6. Oregon - Lots of upside, I wonder about the chemistry though, Kent can't afford another year not playing in the NCAA's with the recruits he has pulled in
7. Oregon State - Scrappy team, we shall see how they replace Lucas
8. WSU - No one likes to play WSU . . .
9. USC - hope is renewed with Floyd at the helm . . . I miss Doctor Evil though
10. Arizona State - this will be Evans swansong, if they couldn't win with Diogu how are they gonna win with out him