This is from my brother Kurt who is more up to date on recruiting than I am . . .
I finished off my Oregon recruiting class blog, but since not all of you are on Myspace it's reposted below...Warning, it's very very long:
If you're not an Oregon Ducks fan, you should probably skip over this blog as it will be long-winded and will bore the hell outta ya...
So yesterday was NLI day, or National Letter of Intent Day. The first day that HS recruits could place their letter of intent and the day when each respective school's recruiting classes. It is the day that provides insight on what new players, and potentially the future direction, a program will obtain for the nxt 4-5 years. The misconception is that if a team has a strong recruiting class, the team will immediately be good next season. Not so, many players their freshman year will either redshirt to gain their fifth year in the program, or will only see the field on special teams while they adapt to the new schemes and increased level of competition. It typically takes two seasons at least to start to see the real beenfit of a recruiting class on a team, so if a school's class in 2003 and 2004 were stellar, they should be great this year.
Specifically for Oregon, they're coming off a 10-2 season with a potential BCS berth and national attention. facilities and fan base are among the elite in the country, coaching is above average, studes doen recently showed tv ratings and national attention for the program are through the roof (see
http://oregonmag.com/DelkinTVRatings106.html for proof)...but there's a problem, the menace that is USC.
There are four major areas where consistently the best high school football prospects come from: Florida, Texas, the great lakes area, and Southern California. Florida recruits are divided up among 4-6 elite programs (UF, FSU, Miami, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama). Texas Longhorns always get first shot at Texas recruits, but after that Texas A&M, Texas tech, TCU, and even the Oklahoma schools take a very good chunk out of the blue chip ranks. The great lakes region players are fought over year after year between Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame.
So that leaves southern California...Southern California always supplied the entire Pac-10 relatively evenly with talent, making the conference competitive and a crap shoot from year to year in terms of what programs would dominate. More so thana ny other conference, the pac-10 has such variety in terms of the top teams because the SoCal talent was always divided up. Not so in recent years, but ESPECIALLY this year. USC has managed to withhold the local top-tier talent in Los Angeles, while picking and choosing select recruits from as far away as New Jersey. This is having a drastic effect on competition in the Pac-10, as with all the SoCal talent going almost exclusively to USC leaves the other nine teams in the Pac-10 merely fighting for the scraps and 2nd place in the conference. This year more so than any other, it seemed that USC simply selected players, and as soon as a scholarship was offered they happily obliged and commited to USC, like it was a privilege just to be given a scholarship offer and ignoring all other teams that had been recruiting these players for years. Repeatedly, top notch recruits picked to compete for 3rd and 4th string on USC rather than gaining immediate playing time at other schools. I fail to understand this logic, and I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few players transfer out of USC if they don't win a national championship or are not in the game this year. Simply put, the recruits go there just to be on a national championship team, even if it means being relegated to practice squad fodder. I compare USC to the New York Yankees, buying up every single big name free agent on the market.
This practice is having an adverse effect on every pac-10 school, but it hit oregon especially hard this recruiting season. Numerous blue chip athletes listed their top two or three schools as oregon, yet consistently ppicked USC over the Ducks, even if USC hadn't even recruited the player at all until a week prior and just now had started calling them...Over the past four seasons Oregon has brought in at least one major blue chip high profile name, this year's class lacks a single blue-chip athlete.
However, hope is not lost. For the expectations, this class is clearly subpar. But to simply call it a wash and ignore the talent in this year's class would be wrong, as there are players that could potentially contribute strongly to the program. This year Oregon took a new approach to recruiting, focusing on specific immediate needs at positions with players that fit the schemes rather than trying to obtain the absolute best player at respective positions. Bellotti and staff are bringing in more JC transfers than any year prior, a total of 8 JUCOs commited, plus one player coming off a two-year church mission (Brandon Bair) and two greyshirt (academically ineligible) signees from last year's class (Pat So'alo, Derrick Jones).
It's surprising that Bellotti and staff pursued so many JCs, as Oregon only graduated 13 players last season and would still be classified as a very young team this upcoming year. It's obvious that it was felt that those 13 graduating or departing early were the key leaders on the team, and more mature JC players were needed to come in to not only fill position needs and leadership voids with obvious team leaders like Long, Ngata, Clemens, Whitehead, Williams, Trucks, Phinisee, and Gipson. Coaches focused on beefing up the line of scrimmage and secondary, and effectively did so with the majority of the class filling in gaps on the d-line and O-line and secondary. Sorely missing from this class though is a single LB, a position that needed replacements to come in...Whether or not this plan of bringing in JCs to fill leadership voids and provide immediate needs will be seen early on. The problem with JUCOs is that, if you're lucky, you get one solid year out of them in the program. We'll see. I'm hopeful on a couple of these players, but overall I'm very disappointed with the incoming class.
Here's a breakdown of the individual players of the 2006 University of Oregon recruiting class:
Remene Alston RB 5’9” 180
Small, shifty RB with good moves and breakaway speed. Ran primarily out of the option in high school. Fits well into spread scheme because of his quick feet and can get lost behind a massive line. the problem: We already have a RB with those exact same qualities who produced better in high school but has yet to produce well for Oregon, Terrell Jackson. I see Alston as potentially involved as a kick/punt returner, but his on-field production as a RB is limited.
Justin Roper QB 6’6” 200
For the second year in a row, Oregon dipped into the backwoods of Georgia to land a recruit (brian Truelove last year). Roper is a tremendous pocket passer, but has snail speed. He has amazing pocket presence, has a feel for the pocket reminiscent of Joey Harrington. Roper is also laser accurate, and has a great arm. He is phenomenal operating out of play action, and ran the spread in high school. His biggest hindrance is his total lack of speed, limiting his capacity in option plays. Think of him as another Brady Leaf, with a stronger arm but even less mobile than Brady.
Nathan Costa QB 6’1” 196
Could use an extra inch or two, but beyond that prototypical college QB for the spread offense. Great all-around athlete, ran spread in high school. Most likley candidate of the three incoming QBs to become the 3rd strong QB next season, with the other two redshirting.
Marvin Johnson CB 5’10” 180
If Marvin adds more bulk he could also be used in a hybrid LB role, but expect him to get his first shot at cornerback. Played both Qb and CB in high school (just like Justin Phinisee), and I see him as the most likely recruit to come in at the CB position. Not the fastest of the secondary recruits but has good hands and decent size, Bellotti also believes he could potentially move over to safety. A fierce hitter witha nose for the ball, Bellotti referenced one high school game where he made the first 17 tackles in the game for his team. needs to work on his cover skills.
C.E. Kaiser OL 6’5” 260
Track and field star in discus and shot put, should also be on the Oregon track team. Has great knee bend, but needs to add more bulk to his frame to be effective. Has very strong arms and gets a good push, but tends to play too high and needs to learn how to utilize leverage.
Chad Peppars CB 5’10” 170
Played both CB and RB in high school, leading his team to a section championship. Decent size for a CB, but could add a few more pounds of muscle. Peppars is a very heavy hitter for his size, however cover skills need to improve.
Bo Thran OL 6’6” 260
Coach Bellotti called Bo the best high school prospect in the state of Oregon. rated a 3-star linemen, he played both sides of the line in high school. Could play any position on the O-line, but likely to end up as a back-up RG or center. Thran has very good feet and on film shows the ability to get downfield very well.
Jeremy Gibbs DL 6’2” 280
Incredibly strong JUCO interior linemen, teammate of Micah Howeth at Oklahoma A&M. Stop gap player with the ability to rush the passer, similar in stature to Matt Toeiana but not as big. Can push through lines well, but skills are raw, and as a JC doesn't have much time to develop.
Jordan Holmes OL 6’4” 276
Legacy player, his dad played for Orgeon in the 70's. Played both sides in HS and projects as a potential DT, but Bellotti sees Holmes as the potential successor at center to Enoka Lucas. Very smart player and a great wrestler in HS, his HS coach says that he has never had a harder worker and intense player than Jordan Holmes. Only problem, he never played center in HS, but was the long snapper.
Cody Kempt QB 6’2” 193
Left-handed in-state QB prospect. Had only one solid year at HS level, but ran spread offense in HS and showed great skill set. Solid all-around athlete, could run well out of the option. He has great zip on the ball, and is not afraid to tuck and run. Also being a lefty can potentially help, as it puts a different spin on the ball confusing defensive players. Still raw though, needs a couple years to develop.
Andre Crenshaw ATH 5’10” 188
A hybrid player, but will likely end up as a RB. Bellotti calls him his Reggie Bush tyle player, though obviously lacks the skills Bush had. Could be used as a slash, switching from RB to H-back to WR and a kick returner. Has unbelieveable speed and potential deep threat.
Devin Mays DB 5’10” 161
Wicked fast with tremendous closing speed. Traxck star in high school and will participate on Oregon's track team as well. An absolute speed demon, but lackluster in cover abilities. Likely will fill role of nickel corner left by Rodney Woods. Also needs to add muscle. The plan is to bring him in as CB, but could switch over to WR and be the next Samie Parker...undersized, but the ultimate deep threat.
Jameel Dowling DB 6’2” 179
JC safety with good size, but could add a few pounds. Has speed to burn. Will also participate in Oregon track team. Set several records in high school track. Potential to move over to CB with his wheels. Size will help out against the tall WRs in the Pac-10. A risk-taker on the field, very aggressive but play is sloppy.
Matthew Harper DB 6’0” 177
JC safety who could also play CB. 4.4 40 speed. One of the higher-rated players of the class. Most likely of the class to see immediate playing time. Expect Patrick Chung to switch from rover to CB, and Harper steps in at the rover slot.
Dexter Manley II DE 6’2” 266
Son of former NFL pro, JUCO DE who was used as wide as possible to allow a free run. Very poor in support, but lightning fast. Arguably the fastest 270-lb man on earth, can run 4.4 40 time. Said to be the fastest player on Santa Monica CC's team, at any position. Will be used solely as a pass rusher in obvious passing downs, but could wreak havoc on the oustide if he can create separation. Has trouble shedding blocks, but can run around a blocker like Dwight Freeney.
Pat So’oalo OL 6’5” 340
JC transfer and signee from last year's class, was academically ineligible last season. So'oalo is now enrolled and will participate in spring practice. JC teammate of Palauni Ma'Sun at Fresno City College. Has a mean streak and built like a semi, Pat has great push and is a stonewall. Problem is he hasn't played in a year and could be rusty. Still, He provides even more depth on I think the best offensive line Oregon has ever had.
Fenuki Tupou OL 6’6” 324
Another JC transfer, Fenuki is probably the best player in this recruiting class. He is simply dominant in all footage I've seen, and could certainly battle for a starting role on the offensive line. Pulls well, has great leverage, gets low, gets downfield...Fenuki possesses the complete package desired on the offensive line. Tupou can clearly equalize the best player that any team in the Pac-10 can offer up on defense.
Brandon Bair TE 6’7” 238
All-state player on defense and TE in Idaho, but is returning from a two-year church mission. He will be obviously rusty after not playing for two years, but potential is big. Last-minute signee, he wasn't even listed as a prospect on any site prior to his commitment to Oregon. Should step in as the successor to Tim Day and Dante Rosario at the TE position. Has good hands but not a deep threat and shouldn't figur einto the passing game much if at all, but will assist greatly in blocking.
Derrick Jones WR 6’1” 186
Commit from last season from LB Poly, but academically ineligible. Will hopefully be eligible in time to participate in spring practice, but academics will be a concern for this player throughout his tenure at Oregon. A potential hothead and ego problem, but arguably the fastest WR in the nation. Will participate with the oregon track team. The next great deep threat for Oregon.
Spencer Paysinger WR 6’3” 210
Brother of current Duck WR Brian...Not rated as high as elder Brian, hopefully either one of them can actually start showing some production on the field. Listed as a WR, but likely will end up playing in the secondary. Very tall, the thought of a 6'3" cornerback is comforting when dealing with the tall WRs of the Pac-10, could especially help out in goalline situations dealing with jump balls. Spencer has tremendous speed. His frame allows room for increase bulk, and could potentially bulk up to fill in the SS/LB role that Anthony Trucks played last season.
Micah Howeth DE 6’3” 245
Teammate of JC commit Jeremy Gibbs from Oklahoma A&M. Will play DE, splitting time with Nick Reed and Dexter Manley II to fill the void left by Devan Long. better against run support than a pass rusher, can get low and has good leverage. very aggressive and can disrupt lines, but needs to work on pursuit angles.
Antwaun Harris WR 5’11” 190
JC transfer and last-minute commit, signed after 4-star WR Jamere Holland announced late on NLI day that he was pickking USC over Oregon, opening up a scholarship. Possession-type receiver with great hands, but lacks downfield speed and is a little undersized for going over the middle. Likely successor to James Finley.
And there it is...There was one other player with a verbal commit, but LB Jurran Casey is likely facing a long jail sentence for his participation in a murder in Culver City last month. Also Jamele Hamler, who had originally commit to Fresno State before de-committing and celaring for Oregon, decommit his verbal to Oregon and sent his LOI to Fresno State instead.
The positives of this class are maturity (older players, JCs), speed, and immediate fill-ins at needed positions. The negative is overall skill levels and lack of superstar blue-chip players.
It is clear that the team wants to follow the defensive mold of USC and Oklahoma, swicthing over to smaller players who have speed to burn. Key players were added to the offensive line, but the one common theme throughout this entire class is that all of them (except for Justin Roper) are agile and fast. Clearly they want more speed on both sides of the ball, as it seems half the class will also be on the track team. Along the O-line the team found players with a lot of bulk but good feet, definitely needed in the wide open scheme. This class fits lots of holes while lacking superstars, but not gaining a single LB in the class hurts badly, since Oregon overloaded last year on JUCO LBs...Oregon looks to be in tremendously good shape for the next two seasons, but face a very serious issue of lack of depth come 2008 because of the massive amount of JUCO players on Oregon.
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